Ben Lindbergh and FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens dissect the glorious game in which Shohei Ohtani founded the 50-50 and 51-51 Clubs, Ohtani’s most awe-inspiring feats, and his future, followed (29:51) by banter about the state of defensive stats, the mystery of Salvador Perez’s swing decisions, questionable kudos for Bud Black, whether Victor Robles made the worst steal attempt of all time, and MLB’s Players of the Game. Then (1:19:55) Ben talks to trailblazing journalist Melissa Ludtke, author of Locker Room Talk: A Woman’s Struggle to Get Inside, about the landmark 1970s Ludtke v. Kuhn case that opened MLB team clubhouses to women.
In a bonus EW episode, Ben Lindbergh talks to screenwriter and former editor-in-chief of The Onion Robert Siegel about his classic Onion opinion piece, “In My Day, Ballplayers Were For Shit,” how The Onion used to approach sports coverage, the importance of headlines and stock photos, satirizing baseball vs. satirizing other sports, why The Onion hasn’t lost its fastball, and more, plus (55:53) a postscript.
With just 10 days left to go in the regular season, four teams — the Brewers, Dodgers, Guardians, and Yankees — have clinched playoff berths, and while just one division race has been decided, only two others have even a faint pulse. There’s still plenty of drama to be had with regards to the Wild Card races, which essentially boil down to a pair of four-to-make-three scenarios; Seattle might have been a stronger fifth in the AL if certain Mariners who reached third base didn’t insist upon taking very strangewalkabouts. Beyond that, it’s also worth checking in on the jockeying for position to claim the first-round byes that go to the top two teams in each league.
Once upon a time, this space would be filled with my reintroducing readers to the concept of Team Entropy, but through the 2022 Collective Bargaining Agreement, Major League Baseball and the players’ union traded the potential excitement and scheduling mayhem created by on-field tiebreakers and sudden-death games in exchange for a larger inventory of playoff games. The 12-team, two-bye format was designed to reward the top two teams by allowing them to bypass the possibility of being eliminated in best-of-three series. So far, however, things haven’t worked out that way, because outcomes in a best-of-five series are only slightly more predictable than those of a best-of-three.
In fact, the National League teams who have received byes under the newish system have lost all four Division Series since, two apiece by the Dodgers and Braves. The 111-win Dodgers were ousted by an 89-win Padres team in 2022, and then last year’s 100-win team was knocked off by the 84-win Diamondbacks. In 2022, the 101-win Braves fell to an 87-win Phillies team, and last year, after winning 104 games in the regular season, Atlanta once again was eliminated by a Philadelphia club that had finished 14 games behind the Braves in the standings. American League bye teams have had more success, going 3-1, with last year’s 90-win Rangers beating the 101-win Orioles for the lone upset. The Astros have taken care of business in both years, with their 106-win club sweeping the 90-win Mariners in 2022 and their 90-win team beating the 87-win Twins last year. Read the rest of this entry »
Jovanny Hernandez/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The Brewers clinched a playoff spot on Wednesday afternoon, with the Cubs’ loss to Oakland early in the afternoon. The Brew Crew themselves waited until after their game against Philadelphia later in the evening to celebrate properly — turns out that a pregame champagne bacchanal is frowned upon in this day and age — but by golly, they sure did seem to enjoy themselves.
Some fuddy-duddies, angered by the realization that anhedonia is not a universal condition, will say there’s still work to be done for the Brewers, a team that’s now made the playoffs six times in seven years but has connived to win only a single postseason series in that span. That’s surely true, and should Milwaukee repeat its traditional low-scoring first-round flameout, I’ll be right there in line to level appropriate criticism.
But let’s not overlook the fact that winning the division requires months of hard work by hundreds of people throughout the organization. It would be disrespectful to those who put in that effort not to take a moment, for one night, to celebrate the product of all that labor. Read the rest of this entry »
In retrospect, of course he was going to do it. On Thursday, Shohei Ohtani became the first player in history to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in the same season, and he did it loudly. His 6-for-6, three-homer, two-steal game would be among the best single-game lines by any player all year even if it hadn’t simultaneously helped him achieve a feat that no one has ever done before. Sometimes you just have to marvel at the greatness.
Ohtani wasn’t supposed to be at his peak this year. He’s rehabbing from UCL repair surgery and thus not pitching. His two-way prowess has always been part of the Ohtani mystique, and 2024 felt like a warmup for next year, his first fully operational campaign with the Dodgers. But instead, Ohtani reached new heights as a hitter this year. He’s already set career bests for every counting stat imaginable. He’d have highs in every rate stat too, if it weren’t for his offensive breakthrough in 2023 (.304/.412/.654 for a 179 wRC+).
Ohtani always felt like a threat to hit 50 homers – he hit 46 in 2021 and 44 last year — but 50 steals felt like a pipe dream; he’d swiped only 86 total bases in 716 games before this year, and even with last year’s rule changes that increased stolen base attempts and success rates, he swiped only 20 bags in 135 games. Read the rest of this entry »
DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
The Amateur Domestic Scouting department is primarily responsible for improving organizational talent through the Rule IV Draft and UDFA signing process. The Amateur Domestic Scouting department strives to be best in class at identifying, evaluating, and valuing amateur baseball talent through a relentless commitment to our process and our people. This includes, but is not limited to creating well-rounded scouting practices, building relationships, leveraging R&D for process support, developing strong staff education frameworks, and establishing sound decision-making processes.
POSITION OVERVIEW:
This is an office-based role that operates in close collaboration with department leadership to drive process improvement while providing support across all areas of the Amateur Scouting operation. As part of this role, support will be required in the following areas: player analysis and evaluation, administration, data collection, and quality control. Additionally, the role helps manage Associate support for Amateur Scouting, as well as the greater Baseball Operations department.
RESPONSIBILITIES:
Lead, implement and improve processes across all areas of the scouting operation, focusing on advancements in workflow, evaluative methods, decision-making, and staff development.
Drive the development and enhancement of the performance identification process.
Collaborate with Analytics, Systems, and Baseball Strategy departments to identify and drive research opportunities that enhance player evaluation.
Work alongside department leadership and partner departments to fully vet and comprehensively analyze all potential draft candidates.
Work with all stakeholders within Amateur Scouting to optimize effectiveness and efficiency of scouting operations and analysis while own a workload of administrative tasks.
Ensure high standards of quality, rigor, and timeliness of player-level data and efficient delivery and communication of high-value information.
Evaluate amateur player targets across assigned areas of responsibility using a hybrid approach of live and video scouting as well as internal information sources.
Power use internal systems and valuation materials. Oversee Associate, Amateur Scouting and their development.
Designs, integrates, and continuously improves processes in alignment with our organizational KPI’s.
COMPETENCIES:
Ability to interact deeply with predictive modeling groups and analytical outputs to integrate and apply to decision-making processes.
Command of valuation frameworks and principles, and the ability to collaborate inter-departmentally to iterate and improve applied valuation methodologies.
Experience with and aptitude for player analysis and evaluation (subjective and objective) and a knowledge of baseball markets across acquisition spaces, transactional/operational areas, and other domains.
Ability to apply evaluation and valuation expertise in the respective planning and decision-making processes.
A strong understanding of and ability to relate to the demands, challenges, and needs of both field and office staff.
Command of end-to-end processes that power decisions and ability to contribute to improvements; ability to design effective and efficient processes within the Amateur Domestic Scouting department and inter-departmentally, and to act as a strong resource for leadership in the planning and execution of departmental priorities.
Ability to connect with and respect people from different backgrounds and cultures, including players, families, coaches, agents, trainers, and others.
In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.
POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Acquisition Specialist will play an important role in enhancing the Scouting process through live and video evaluations, leveraging data to refine valuation methods, and supporting leadership in decision-making efforts. The role demands expertise in player analysis, proficiency with analytical tools, and a sound grasp of valuation frameworks. This person will consult with key contributors across multiple departments, collaborating with Scouting leadership, Analytics, and Systems teams, to drive continuous improvements in information, evaluations, valuations, and decision-making processes, ultimately enhancing the overall efficiency and effectiveness of the Amateur or Pro Scouting operation.
The Acquisition Specialist is a remote role. We have openings on both the Amateur Domestic Scouting and Pro Scouting teams. Candidates will have a chance to state their preference but are not guaranteed placement on their preferred team.
DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW(S):
The Amateur Domestic Scouting department is primarily responsible for improving organizational talent through the Rule IV Draft and UDFA signing process. The Amateur Domestic Scouting department strives to be best in class at identifying, evaluating, and valuing amateur baseball talent through a relentless commitment to our process and our people. This includes, but is not limited to creating well-rounded scouting practices, building relationships, leveraging R&D for process support, developing strong staff education frameworks, and establishing sound decision-making processes.
The Pro Scouting department is responsible for evaluation, information synthesis, valuation analysis, and decision-making recommendations for player acquisitions across all professional leagues, including: Major & Minor Leagues, Independent Leagues, and Professional Winter Leagues. The department collaborates across baseball ops domains to leverage organizational knowledge and help drive decisions of professional players across all acquisitions avenues.
RESPONSIBILITIES:
Participate in the implementation and improvement of processes across several areas of the acquisition operation, focusing on advancements in workflow, evaluative methods, decision-making support, and staff development.
Utilize analytical tools to identify and prioritize prospects that require further analysis to ensure high-confidence and completeness of information, evaluations, and valuations.
Leverage analytical tools and models to provide QC/QA feedback and identify areas for further research and development.
Make informed recommendations on valuation approaches and apply valuation outputs to decision-making processes.
Partner with Systems and Analytics teams to develop, refine, and optimize scouting tools.
Evaluate a high volume of players using video analysis and select live-look targets, integrating all available data for comprehensive evaluation.
COMPETENCIES:
Ability to interact deeply with predictive modeling groups and analytical outputs to integrate and apply to decision-making processes.
Command of valuation frameworks and principles, and the ability to collaborate inter-departmentally to iterate and improve applied valuation methodologies.
Experience with and aptitude for player analysis and evaluation (subjective and objective) and a knowledge of baseball markets across acquisition spaces, transactional/operational areas, and other domains
Ability to apply evaluation and valuation expertise in the respective planning and decision-making processes.
A strong understanding of and ability to relate to the demands, challenges, and needs of both field and office staff
Command of end-to-end processes that power decisions and ability to contribute to improvements; ability to design effective and efficient processes within the Amateur Domestic Scouting or Pro Scouting department and inter-departmentally, and to act as a strong resource for leadership in the planning and execution of departmental priorities.
Ability to connect with and respect people from different backgrounds and cultures, including players, families, coaches, agents, trainers, and others.
ADDITIONAL QUALIFICATIONS:
Experience with SQL is a plus, not required.
In addition to the above requirements, all roles within Baseball Operations are expected to effectively demonstrate our universal competencies related to problem solving, teamwork, clarity of communication, and time management, along with embodying our culture of honesty, humility, relentlessness, and commitment to DEIB.
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
Welcome to the second (and final) installment of the critically acclaimed “Previewing the Option Decisions” series. I covered the National League on Tuesday, and today we’ll have the American League sequel. Let’s get to it.
Baltimore Orioles
Mike Elias and his front office have five (!) club options to decide upon, but most of the choices are going to be easy ones. Eloy Jiménez, who has been a platoon bat since coming over from the White Sox, is going to have his $16.5 million option turned down; Seranthony Domínguez ($8 million), Danny Coulombe ($4 million), and Cionel Pérez ($2.2 million) will all have their options exercised to beef up the bullpen behind returning closer Félix Bautista. (Pérez is eligible for arbitration for two more seasons even if his option is declined.)
The one fascinating call will be what to do about Ryan O’Hearn, who has a $7.5 million club option for next season. Just a couple of months ago, exercising the option looked like a no-brainer. At the end of July, O’Hearn was hitting .273/.344/.457 (128 wRC+) while starting at first base or in right field against righties. Since then, he’s held onto his strong-side platoon role, but his season has taken a turn for the worse. O’Hearn is batting just .209/.283/.296, which works out to an anemic 70 wRC+, across 127 plate appearances since the beginning of August. Considering he provides little value in the field or on the bases, O’Hearn needs to break out of his slump soon to show the Orioles he’s worth keeping around. Baltimore has enough in-house talent to replace O’Hearn; even if Anthony Santander leaves in free agency, the O’s could roll with Coby Mayo at first, Heston Kjerstad in right, and Ryan Mountcastle at DH. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Joe Sheehan banter about high school, the persistent, befuddling allure of Craig Kimbrel, the Orioles’ recent struggles, the playoff-fumble potential of four teams that previously possessed 90-plus-percent playoff odds, their prediction philosophies, the potential for legislation to curb the excesses of sports betting, and what the surprise “retirement” of Adrian Wojnarowski says about the difference between baseball’s biggest newsbreakers and those of other sports, plus a postscript (1:16:30) about the history of hating intentional walks.
Craig Kimbrel lost his job as the Orioles’ closer back in July due to his erratic performance. Now he’s out of a job completely. With just 11 games remaining in the regular season, the Orioles designated the 36-year-old righty for assignment on Wednesday, guaranteeing that he won’t be a participant in this year’s postseason, either for the playoff-bound Orioles or anyone else.
The decision came less than 24 hours after the worst outing of Kimbrel’s career. Called upon in the ninth inning of Tuesday night’s game with the Orioles trailing the Giants 4-0, Kimbrel struck out Patrick Bailey, but then all hell broke loose: a single, a steal, a wild pitch, a walk, a sacrifice bunt for which the throw home was too late, another walk, a strikeout, a two-run single, and an RBI double. After he departed, Matt Bowman yielded another two-run single, with both runs charged to Kimbrel’s ledger. It was the first time in 837 major league outings that he had allowed six runs; he’d never even allowed five before, but it was the eighth outing out of his last 11 in which Kimbrel was scored upon, raising his ERA to an unsightly 5.33.
On the one hand, this is a somewhat shocking turn of events for a player who made his ninth All-Star team just last season and plausibly could have this year as well. On the other hand, Kimbrel has been so ineffective lately that without his gaudy résumé — he’s fifth on the career saves list with 440, and may one day wind up in Cooperstown — and his big salary, he might have lost his roster spot awhile ago, particularly on a team whose bullpen has been a problem for months.
“We have so much respect for Craig and his career and what he’s done for the game, how long he’s pitched, how long he’s pitched well,” manager Brandon Hyde told reporters on Wednesday. “So it’s never easy to say goodbye to someone that’s done a lot. A heck of a first half for us, helped us win a ton of games. He’s an amazing teammate. He’s incredible in the clubhouse and just a class, class act.”
With closer Félix Bautista slated to miss the season after undergoing both Tommy John surgery and a follow-up ulnar nerve transposition and scar tissue cleanup, the Orioles signed Kimbrel to a one-year, $13 million contract in December, a deal that included performance bonuses as well as a $13 million club option for 2025, with a $1 million buyout. Baltimore represented Kimbrel’s fifth stop in four seasons; he pitched for the Cubs and White Sox in 2021, the Dodgers in ’22, and the Phillies last year. Throughout that nomadic run — and before that, dating back to his time with the Cubs (2019 to mid-2021) and Red Sox (2016–18) — he led something of a Dr. Jeckyl/Mr. Hyde existence, at times dominating opponents the way he did during his stellar run in Atlanta, but sometimes falling into bad habits mechanically. “Too rotational” is a phrase that has surfaced multiple times over the years to describe Kimbrel’s tendency to get out of whack. By getting down the mound too quickly instead of staying back, he has struggled with his release point and sacrificed deception, command, and unpredictability.
In 2019–20, a span during which Kimbrel threw just 36 innings due to a prolonged free agency and the pandemic, he posted a 6.00 ERA and 6.29 FIP. He bounced back to make the NL All-Star team in 2021, posting an 0.49 ERA and 1.01 FIP in 36 2/3 innings for the Cubs, but then a 5.09 ERA and 4.56 FIP after being traded to the White Sox on July 26. He put in serviceable seasons for the Dodgers and Phillies, combining for a 3.49 ERA and 3.54 FIP, but lost his closer’s job in Los Angeles in September 2022 and was left off the postseason roster. Last October, he was one of the goats as the Phillies were upset by the Diamondbacks, taking losses in Games 3 and 4 of the NLCS.
Kimbrel began his tenure with the Orioles in inauspicious fashion, blowing a save but collecting a win against the Royals on Opening Day. He blew two more saves in April, but none in May and just one in June. On July 7, he converted his 16th save in 17 attempts since the start of May, and 23rd in 27 attempts overall, lowering his season ERA to 2.10 and his FIP to 2.47. To that point, he had been scored upon just twice in his past 22 games, with one of his two runs allowed (across a total of 21 innings) an unearned run, a Manfred man who scored the game-winner for the Blue Jays in the 10th frame on June 5.
After that July 7 save, Kimbrel didn’t pitch again for a week, and when he did, the bottom began to drop out. Protecting a one-run lead against the Yankees at Camden Yards on July 14, he began the ninth by waking Trent Grisham and Oswaldo Cabrera, the Yankees’ eighth and ninth hitters, then served up a three-run homer to rookie Ben Rice. The Orioles got him off the hook with a three-run ninth against Clay Holmes. The decision had been made before that sad Sunday, but Holmes, who finished the first half with a 2.77 ERA and 2.74 FIP, made the AL All-Star team, while Kimbrel, who had a 2.80 ERA and 2.97 FIP by the end of that outing, did not. Just sayin’.
Kimbrel threw a scoreless inning in his next outing, against the Rangers on July 20, but he was scored upon in his subsequent three games, blowing another save and taking a loss as well. He didn’t get another save chance, as the Orioles traded for Seranthony Domínguez, his former Phillies teammate, on July 26. In fact, Kimbrel rarely got another high-leverage opportunity — just three of his final 15 appearances had a leverage index over 0.41, and one of those was 0.88.
Even in mostly low-leverage situations, Kimbrel didn’t perform up to major league standards. Across his 18 innings from July 14 onward, he was lit for an 11.50 ERA with a 7.45 FIP. He allowed five home runs in that span, walking 17.5% of hitters while striking out 21.6%. It was uncomfortable to witness, even when he pitched in games that had more or less been decided.
Overall, Kimbrel’s 4.18 FIP and 4.24 xERA suggest that he’s pitched better than that 5.33 ERA. He’s struck out 31.5% of batters, but he’s walked 13.4%, a mark he exceeded in both 2016 and ’20 (small sample alert). That said, his 54.3% first-pitch strike rate, 24.1% chase rate, and 11.8% swinging strike rate are his lowest marks for any season in which he’s thrown more than 21 innings. Looking to Statcast, his velocity loss particularly stands out. His four-seam fastball has averaged just 93.9 mph, down about two miles per hour from last year, and fading further as the season has gone on, with his results predictably going south as well:
The Decline of Craig Kimbrel’s Four-Seam Fastball
Period
Velo
PA
AVG
xBA
SLG
xSLG
wOBA
xwOBA
EV
Whiff
2022
95.8
170
.259
.199
.408
.345
.338
.293
88.9
23.4%
2023
95.8
190
.185
.185
.346
.345
.286
.293
91.4
30.6%
2024
93.9
167
.203
.213
.421
.411
.339
.340
92.2
28.9%
April
93.9
37
.207
.245
.379
.423
.326
.352
90.7
34.2%
May
94.6
26
.091
.154
.227
.382
.220
.296
92.9
31.6%
June
94.5
28
.174
.185
.217
.227
.262
.270
91.2
25.8%
July
93.6
33
.192
.201
.462
.460
.362
.363
93.1
25.4%
August
92.9
28
.273
.304
.727
.627
.451
.433
96.3
28.6%
September
93.4
15
.364
.147
.636
.275
.477
.286
85.6
25.0%
The lower velocity cost Kimbrel about an inch of horizontal break relative to last year, in exchange for an inch of vertical break, and both of our pitch modeling systems capture the decline, both from year to year and in-season. Here’s a look at Kimbrel via Stuff+:
Craig Kimbrel, Stuff+
Period
FA
KC
Stuff+
Location+
Pitching+
2022
116
112
115
102
104
2023
125
126
125
102
114
2024 – Through July 7
114
121
116
99
104
2024 – Since July 8
103
113
106
91
97
Note the huge falloffs in Location+ and Pitching+, as well as the overall grade. From last year to the latter half of this season, that’s about one full standard deviation of decline in Stuff+, and two standard deviations of decline in Location+ and Pitching+.
Kimbrel’s other main pitch, his knuckle curve, didn’t fall off as drastically as his fastball. Batters have hit the pitch for a decent .261 average, but he’s limited them to a meager .283 slugging percentage and a .252 wOBA with it, to go along with a 34.8% whiff rate. Those numbers aren’t quite as good as they were last year (.219 wOBA, 38.8%), but they’re more than serviceable. The problem is that from July onward, batters slugged .593 with a .416 wOBA against the fastball and slugged .385 with a .335 wOBA against the knuckle curve, leaving him without an effective weapon in what has basically been a two-pitch arsenal. He did have some success with a sweeper, throwing it 5.1% of the time overall and inducing a .114 wOBA and 44.4% whiff rate, but the pitch — which he generally threw to righties — all but disappeared from his repertoire in August and September.
The Orioles ran out of time to fix Kimbrel, and they’ve had myriad other problems to confront as they look to October, whether they rally to erase their current five-game deficit in the AL East or hold onto the top Wild Card spot. The O’s have gone just 31-37 since July 1, and haven’t posted a winning record in any calendar month since then. From July 1 through Tuesday, their bullpen was lit for a 4.94 ERA, fourth worst in the majors, with four relievers in addition to Kimbrel throwing at least 10 innings with ERAs above 5.00: Bryan Baker (5.73 in 11 innings), Burch Smith (5.74 in 26 2/3 innings), Gregory Soto (16.59 in 13 2/3 innings), and the since-departed Cole Irvin (8.50 in 18 innings). Domínguez hasn’t been great (3.26 ERA, 5.14 FIP), but Yennier Cano, Keegan Akin, and Cionel Pérez have been pretty good. The right-handed Cano and the left-handed Pérez are the top setup men, generally available for the occasional save chance based on matchups or if Domínguez is unavailable, though Cano has apparently been dealing with forearm tightness and wasn’t available in Wednesday’s loss to the Giants. The rotation, which has dealt with the losses of Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells to UCL-related surgeries, and Grayson Rodriguez to a lat strain, delivered just a 4.41 ERA (111 ERA-) and a 4.15 FIP (102 FIP-) from the start of July through Tuesday.
Yet the pitching hasn’t been the problem during this month’s 6-9 slide. Instead it’s been an offense that’s managing just an 89 wRC+ and 3.47 runs per game while missing the injured Ryan Mountcastle, Ramón Urías, and Jordan Westburg. “The testing of our depth, and a lot of depth we’ve lost, is not something I anticipated in this degree in the second half on the position player side,” executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias told reporters on Tuesday. “It’s turned out here that’s not necessarily been the crisis we were expecting in the second half, and we’ve been paying for it.”
As for Kimbrel, he’ll likely go unclaimed as he passes through waivers and then get released, leaving the Orioles on the hook for the remainder of his salary and his buyout. While I don’t think we’ve seen the last of him, we’ve probably seen the last of his big contracts.
As for whether this rough stretch will affect Kimbrel’s Hall of Fame chances, I hardly think the matter is as simple or the situation as dire as one writer suggested on Twitter while pointing out that Kimbrel’s 18-inning rough patch lowered his career ERA+ from 171 to 158. That current mark (off of a 2.59 ERA) is higher than seven of the eight Hall of Fame relievers: Hoyt Wilhelm (147), Trevor Hoffman (141), Bruce Sutter (136), Lee Smith (132), Goose Gossage (126), Rollie Fingers (120), and Dennis Eckersley (116, including his time as a starter). The rub is that each of those seven (and Mariano Rivera, the eighth) has pitched at least 232 1/3 innings more than Kimbrel (809 2/3), with some of those enshrinees having more than double his total. Even Billy Wagner, who’s on the doorstep of Cooperstown after getting 73.8% of the vote last year, threw 903 innings (with an elite 187 ERA+).
Kimbrel’s case — which like that of Wagner is driven by exceptional rate stats rather than volume — does have some things in his favor. His nine All-Star selections is tied with Gossage for second behind Rivera’s 13. His 38.8% strikeout rate is the highest of any pitcher with at least 800 innings, well ahead of the second-ranked Kenley Jansen (35.5%) and third-ranked Wagner (33.2%). Likewise, his .167 opponents batting average has supplanted Wagner (.184) for the lead at the 800-inning cutoff, with Jansen (.182) sneaking ahead of him as well. His postseason body of work isn’t particularly pretty (4.50 ERA with 10 saves in 30 innings), and his performance during the Red Sox’s 2018 championship run led to Alex Cora’s choosing Chris Sale to close out the World Series against the Dodgers, but his lone ring and modest postseason stats surpass Wagner’s postseason résumé.
Turning to my Reliever JAWS metric, here’s the top 25:
R-JAWS is the average of WAR, WPA, and WPA/LI. + = Hall of Famer
When I checked in last November while covering Wagner’s Hall of Fame case, Jansen ranked 14th, Kimbrel 15th, and Robertson 23rd. Jansen has had a solid season for the Red Sox (3.42 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 27 saves). He’s gained 1.7 points of R-JAWS, enough to vault him into the top 10; he’s also climbed from seventh in saves (420) to fourth (447). Though he’s notched just two saves to run his career total to a comparatively meager 177, Robertson has pitched well for Texas (3.22 ERA, 2.59 FIP), adding 1.6 points as well to jump seven places. Meanwhile, Kimbrel has lost 1.3 points due to his sub-zero bWAR (-1.2) and WPA (-2.3), costing him a couple spots in the rankings.
If Kimbrel were on the ballot today, I don’t think he’d be elected, but then Eckersley and Rivera have been the only relievers to gain entry on the first ballot; aside from Fingers (elected in his second year) and Hoffman (third year) it’s been a slog for most of the others. As with Wagner, who’s heading into his 10th and final year on the writers’ ballot, one facet of the candidacies of Kimbrel and Jansen that I expect will become more clear over time is the high attrition rate of their peers and the wave of stars that has followed them. Chapman, who has 330 saves, is almost certainly done as a full-time closer, and while Edwin Díaz and Josh Hader are more or less halfway to 400 saves (223 for the former, 196 for the latter), each has already endured lengthy bouts of ineffectiveness, hanging full-season ERAs above 5.00 — and they’re in just their age-30 seasons. It’s nearly impossible to remain a top-flight closer for, say, a decade, and a viable one for a decade and a half. It’s even harder, obviously, to do the same as a starter, and if you want to take umbrage over Wagner’s possible election while Mark Buehrle has yet to clear 11% percent of the vote, I get it, but that’s a beef for another day.
Again, I don’t think this will be the last we hear from Kimbrel, though the book on him is probably closed for this year, which could save all of us some agita as we watch him walk two guys and have to wriggle out of another jam. When he’s on, he still has the swing-and-miss stuff to nail down the ninth inning. Here’s hoping he finds it again.
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