We continue Prospect Week 2018 by trying to address a question frequently asked by fans of teams that have just graduated multiple high-level prospects — namely, where would those graduated prospects rank if they were still eligible for the Top 100? We usually don’t have that answer ready off the top of our heads since, as prospect analysts, we aren’t thinking about those players very much. We decided that wasn’t okay, though. So now, whenever we do an updated top-100 or midseason list, we will also provide an update on the prospects who have lost their eligibility in the previous/current year.

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The team that eventually signs Neil Walker will be getting a player who has been consistent and dynamic over the course of his career. Those descriptions come courtesy of the 32-year-old free agent himself — and they’re pretty accurate. In his eight full big-league seasons, Walker has averaged 2.7 WAR annually, with the ebbs and flows remaining within a reasonably narrow range. Ditto his OPS, which has always been higher than league average, but never north of .823.

A first-round pick by his hometown (give or take a few miles) Pirates in 2004, Walker was Pittsburgh property prior to being traded to the Mets in December 2015, and then to the Brewers last August. Along the way, he’s remained steady-as-she-goes productive, as well as a positive influence in the clubhouse.

“I’ve been able to fit into many roles with the teams I’ve been on,” Walker told me at the tail end of last season. “I’ve hit at the top of the order and the middle of the order. I’ve been a run producer and a run scorer. I’ve played pretty decent defense. I feel I’ve been a fairly dynamic and consistent player.”

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Baseball is in an era of extremes. While the game has always evolved, it’s rarely — if ever — evolved so quickly.

Home runs have increased dramatically due to a variety of factors, velocity continues to rise, bullpens keep on gaining a greater share of the overall workload. The MLBPA, meanwhile, has been taken aback by the changing complexion of the free-agent marketplace, defined this offseason by stagnation — in part due to the speed with which organizations have adapted to the terms of the latest CBA.

Another labor-ownership issue — pace — continues to be problematic. Not necessary the overall time of games, but the increasing duration of seconds between pitches in an age when attention spans are continually tested. To really engage a fan and customer, particularly the next generation, you probably don’t want them to be able/compelled to look at their smartphone between every pitch.

There’s a lot of extremes. And I’m writing to discuss yet another here today: the disabled list.

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Below is KATOH’s 2018 top-100 prospect list. If you’re a regular FanGraphs reader, you likely know the drill by now. But in case you need a refresher, KATOH produces a WAR forecast for a player’s first six major-league seasons. It incorporates age, offensive performance, defensive performance, and other characteristics from the past two seasons. There are certainly drawbacks to scouting the stat line, but due to their objectivity, the projections can be useful in identifying prospects who might be overlooked or overrated.

I have made a few updates this time around. KATOH now features:

1. The batted-ball data (for both hitters and pitchers) available on our awesome leaderboards. Among other things, this helps KATOH differentiate between fluky and un-fluky high- and low-BABIP hitters.
2. A greater reliance on recent data for the construction of the model and less dependence on data points from 10-plus years ago.
3. Numbers from the Dominican Summer League, which was previously outside of KATOH’s scope

Astute readers might notice that this article does not include a top-100 for KATOH+, the version of KATOH that incorporates scouting grades in addition to the stats. Since Kiley and Eric are still working their way through the organizational lists, I don’t have up-to-date FV grades for every prospect. Rather than plugging in FV grades from a year ago (or more), I am holding off on KATOH+ for now.

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Episode 800
In her most recent and also first appearance on FanGraphs Audio, guest Meg Rowley revealed that she’d done some scholarly work in the area of political representation before turning to the more important matter of baseball weblogging. Here, she wonders whether a former major-league player is as well suited to deal with ownership’s relentless negotiators than a labor lawyer.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 41 min play time.)

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Over at Baseball Prospectus, it’s PECOTA day. Now, that means a whole lot of different things, but one of the things it means is that now BP gets to unveil its projected 2018 standings. Some years ago, I used to get extremely excited about seeing the first standings projections. Then FanGraphs decided to start hosting projections year-round. They’re always right here, and for months, that information has been based on the Steamer projection system. Pretty soon, well in advance of opening day, the ZiPS system will get folded in, to say nothing of remaining transactions. The point being, having projected standings is fun. They serve to keep the mind occupied with thoughts of baseball.

Projected standings aren’t just a toy for the public. I mean, the public ones are, but teams also have their own private projections, that might be better, or that might be basically the same. Team projections drive perceptions, and team projections drive transactions. We feel like we have a pretty good idea of which teams are situated to contend. We also feel like we have a pretty good idea of which teams are far away. Right now, in 2018, based in part on the projections and in part on what just happened a year ago, we have the sense we’re in an era of super-teams, which might be keeping the market slow. Other teams might not feel like they’re close enough to invest.

I love having access to team projections. I use them all the time for analysis and articles. But I feel like I should remind you of the limitations. This is something I could probably write every single year. I’m sure on some level you already know what I’m going to say. Projections are pretty good. They can also end up very, very far off.

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The Twins need starting pitching. You know that. I know that. The Twins know that. It’s the reason they’ve been connected with pretty much all the available free agents, Yu Darvish the most prominent among them. Jake Arrieta, Alex Cobb, and Lance Lynn are among the next tier of free agents who would make some sense for the club. Below that, you have former Twin — for one game, at least —Jaime Garcia and some other options like Wade Miley and Jason Vargas.

Before yesterday, it seemed pretty likely that Minnesota would be adding one of the top four pitchers available this winter. With Ervin Santana now expected to miss the first month of the season due to finger surgery, it might actually be a good idea for the Twins to sign two pitchers.

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Pitching is weird. Development commonly follows an uneven timeline, with progress being erratic, often unpredictable. One little change can mean the difference between life in Triple-A and 20 million dollars, so if there’s one thing to try to accumulate, it’s youth. Young pitchers come with the benefit of more time. It’s hard to know what they’ll do with it, but at least they have it to begin with. More time to find the adjustments that matter.

The Reds can sometimes be an easy team to forget. Their rebuild, admittedly, remains a work in progress. Yet one thing they’ve certainly done is collect young starting pitchers, which gives them that volatility and upside, even beyond the already volatile Homer Bailey and Anthony DeSclafani. Maybe this year will be the year for Cody Reed. Maybe it’ll be the year for Amir Garrett, or Robert Stephenson. Not to leave out Sal Romano. Not to leave out Brandon Finnegan, or Tyler Mahle. Not to leave out all the other candidates. With a few new pitches, or with a few mechanical tweaks, the Reds could suddenly have something special on their hands.

What the Reds have desperately needed to do is develop quality pitching. There’s plenty more development remaining to be achieved. Among the whole assortment, however, there’s one shining light. There’s not really anything left for Luis Castillo to do. He’s an electrifying starter who already made his final adjustment on the fly.

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Hi, there. Eric here to tee you up for the conversation you’re about to read. Kiley and I wanted to be as open as possible about how we went about compiling our overall top-100 prospects list (and, it follows, how we compile each organization’s list of prospects). Below we provide some broad exposition about how we determine a prospect’s grade, as well as how we’ve reflected on and tweaked our methodology. We don’t necessarily believe the way we do it is objectively correct, but we want you to know we’re searching for the best way to evaluate players, especially as (for better or worse) major-league baseball evolves.

*****

Kiley McDaniel
So, let’s talk a little bit about how we determine an FV for a prospect. First, readers may want to check out this link about the connection between FV and WAR.

We can start with Colin Moran here since he’s essentially big-league ready. Once we get beyond players like that and into lower-level players, aspects of the process become hypothetical and vague.

Eric Longenhagen
We look to current MLB players as statistical baselines for this. We know the average MLB regular produces 2.0 to 2.5 WAR annually. Last year, both Chase Headley and Mike Moustakas were in that range, though of course they got there in totally different ways. We’ll compile every bit of information we can (scouting reports of our own or from people in baseball, any relevant data from the growing pie of player evaluation) and get an idea of what kind of output a prospect projects to have at maturity, then compare that to baselines created by individual players or league averages at a given position and things like that.

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