Where Would Manny Machado Best Fit?

Manny Machado is all alone atop the offseason trade market. (Photo: Keith Allison)

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — There is a Branch Rickey axiom that goes something like this: when trading an asset, it’s typically better to do so a year too early than a year too late. That is largely pragmatic and true. One could argue that Baltimore is a year too late in considering a rebuild. But late is also preferable to never.

As Dave wrote, the Orioles appear to be coming to their senses in exploring a trade of Manny Machado. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that the Orioles are engaged in more than listening; they are asking for offers to be submitted for Machado. The franchise-cornerstone talent is interested in returning to shortstop.

From Rosenthal’s piece:

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports previously reported that the Orioles are listening on Machado, but the team actually is operating with a more aggressive stance, telling potentially interested teams to make them offers, sources say.

Rosenthal goes on to suggest that moving Machado would “trigger a series of moves intended to redefine the future of an organization that currently has only two reliable members of its starting rotation and an improving but still underwhelming farm system.”

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Let’s Dream Up a Michael Fulmer Trade

The Yankees are currently in the process of shoving all their chips towards the middle of the table, going all-in on their young core of premium position-player talent. Trading for Giancarlo Stanton was part of that effort. Even trading away Bryan Mitchell in order not to pay Chase Headley was part of it, too. It allowed the club to situate themselves at something like $30 million under the tax threshold. Now there’s a link forming between the Tigers and the Yankees, with Michael Fulmer as the prize. Let’s dream this one up.

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Padres Buy Bryan Mitchell From Yankees

The competitive-balance tax isn’t a salary cap, not in the hard and fast sense, but sometimes it acts in the exact same way. As a consequence, you can have big-budget teams in the business of cutting payroll, which can lead to situations like Tuesday’s, where the Padres have come to the aid of the Yankees. The Yankees are trying to stay below the threshold, even after acquiring Giancarlo Stanton, and that almost fully explains this morning’s exchange.

Padres get:

Yankees get:

This is a trade involving three major-league players. And even though I’m not at all convinced Blash lasts the winter on the Yankees’ 40-man roster, there are things about him to like. Ultimately, though, this is really quite simple to understand — the Padres are taking Headley’s $13-million final year, and they’re getting Mitchell for the trouble. The Yankees drop their payroll, and the Padres get a project.

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The Orioles Appear to Be Coming to Their Senses

When the Angels landed Shohei Otani on Friday and the Yankees acquired Giancarlo Stanton over the weekend, I noted that the move might motivate the fringe contenders in the AL to shift gears. Rationally, the bar to make the postseason in the AL was just raised significantly, and teams like the Orioles saw their path to the playoffs get significantly slimmer.

This week, the Orioles appear to have gotten the memo.

There’s no real reason for the Orioles to keep Manny Machado. We have the Orioles projected for 76 wins, right between the Braves and Marlins, and Machado is heading into his final year before reaching free agency. The Orioles can’t afford to let a guy with his value walk for draft pick compensation next year, so the question is whether they would trade him now or this summer.

By moving him now, they can take advantage of the desire of multiple teams to add an impact position player this winter, with the Cardinals as a potentially obvious suitor. While there aren’t that many contenders out there looking for a shortstop, Machado is a legitimately elite player, and teams that don’t see SS as a need might still get involved just to get that kind of impact player in the fold. And if some team wants to take a 10 month run at trying to re-sign him before he hits free agency, then there’s value in acquiring him ahead of time to get those exclusive negotiating rights.

The Orioles should do pretty well in a Machado deal, even though he’s just a rental. A +6 WAR guy who can provide his level of offense from SS is not something that comes available every day. Let the bidding begin!


Winter Meetings Live Blog, Day 2

12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good noon from Orlando, friends. My phone screen is broken, hopefully I’m not stuck here forever as a result. But hey, baseball time.

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, had some wifi trouble but working now…

12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Well, sorta

12:08
Mike Stanton: What prospects would the Sox have to include to bring back Machado? Seems like a perfect match with Devers at third, with a potential move to first in the coming years, no?

12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think they have the horses for that. System is thin.

12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: You could make an argument that Flores was their best guy. I can’t see teams centering a package around Groome unless they think he’s really grown up. Already a lot of risk acquiring a pitcher as a centerpiece, let alone you don’t have sufficient makeup reports on.

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A Weird Thing About Outfield Sluggers

This morning, I started working on a post about why perhaps the Cardinals should think twice before pursuing Marcell Ozuna too heavily. The premise of the post was, essentially, that while the team could afford to ignore handedness when targeting Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna isn’t that same kind of impact hitter who crushes everyone, and the team should pause before adding yet another right-handed hitter to an already right-handed heavy line-up.

The Cardinals currently project to play two left-handed hitters (Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong) on a regular basis. Switch-hitting Dexter Fowler bats from the left side against RHPs, but that’s also his weaker side offensively. Even including Fowler, though, that’s three lefties and six righties, and with one of those three being a weak-hitting middle infielder. The Cardinals line-up just doesn’t have much in the way of left-handed power.

So the post was going to suggest that the Cardinals turn away from Ozuna, and instead go for a good left-handed outfield slugger instead. And then I realized that those guys don’t really exist in MLB right now.

Here are the left-handed hitting outfielders who have accumulated at least 1,200 PAs over the last three years, and their wRC+ over that span.

Left-Handed Hitting OFs, 2015-2017
# Name PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+
1 Bryce Harper 1762 0.297 0.417 0.561 156
2 Charlie Blackmon 2037 0.315 0.377 0.537 126
3 Christian Yelich 1866 0.294 0.371 0.449 123
4 Adam Eaton 1464 0.288 0.364 0.431 119
5 Joc Pederson 1342 0.228 0.347 0.450 119
6 Josh Reddick 1522 0.291 0.347 0.451 117
7 Curtis Granderson 1773 0.237 0.340 0.457 117
8 David Peralta 1230 0.293 0.352 0.479 116
9 Dexter Fowler 1294 0.251 0.360 0.439 115
10 Jackie Bradley Jr. 1429 0.255 0.337 0.455 109
11 Kole Calhoun 1999 0.258 0.330 0.419 106
12 Brett Gardner 1928 0.266 0.351 0.404 106
13 Jay Bruce 1771 0.243 0.308 0.480 106
14 Odubel Herrera 1726 0.286 0.342 0.430 106
15 Nori Aoki 1201 0.284 0.347 0.391 105
16 Melky Cabrera 1459 0.288 0.333 0.426 104
17 Kevin Kiermaier 1357 0.263 0.321 0.428 104
18 Carlos Gonzalez 1746 0.276 0.336 0.491 103
19 Denard Span 1433 0.275 0.338 0.407 102
20 Eddie Rosario 1404 0.277 0.307 0.467 101
21 Nick Markakis 1986 0.281 0.357 0.389 100
22 Ender Inciarte 1842 0.301 0.347 0.403 100
Minimum 1,200 PAs, 100 wRC+

22 left-handed OFs have posted a league-average or better batting line in regular playing time over the last three years, but Harper is the only one to crack the 130 wRC+ barrier, and only two others even get over 120 wRC+. A good chunk of the 22 guys on this list are no one’s idea of a slugger, as they got themselves to average offense with OBP, not SLG. No one is going to mistake Brett Gardner, Kole Calhoun, Jackie Bradley Jr., Nori Aoki, Melky Cabrera, Denard Span, Nick Markakis, or Ender Inciarte for a slugger.

Of course, the 1,200 PA minimum does exclude a few guys who haven’t been regulars for three straight years, such as Michael Conforto, Kyle Schwarber, and Cody Bellinger. So it’s not like there are no lefty outfield sluggers in baseball. But those guys are also basically unavailable, so for the Cardinals purposes, that trio doesn’t really matter.

So, yeah, where did all the lefty slugging outfielders go? The shift reducing the effectiveness of left-handed pull players could explain part of this evolution, but it feels overly sudden to have the shift already have changed the game this significantly. More likely it’s just a cyclical thing. Baseball does this sometimes.

But that does mean that, for right now, the Cardinals might have to run a pretty unbalanced line-up. It’s either that or trade for Joc Pederson.


Jacoby Ellsbury and the NBA-Style Trade

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — The Yankees weren’t necessarily looking to add a player who can earn $295 million over the next 10 seasons, but when you can land Giancarlo Stanton by surrendering only cash and a modest return of prospects, it’s an opportunity worth exploring.

The addition of the reigning NL MVP not only has the Yankees leaping the Red Sox in the AL East — 92 to 91 projected wins according to our projections — but he creates one of the rarest player tandems in history with Aaron Judge, making the Yankees’ lineup extremely potent on paper and also must-watch entertainment.

The biggest negative regarding the transaction for the Yankees is the $22 million Stanton luxury-tax number Stanton adds to the club’s payroll. Read the rest of this entry »


Pat Neshek Returns to the Phillies

Last fall, the Phillies purchased Pat Neshek from the Astros and exercised his $6.5 million option. He was easily their best reliever, and then he netted the team three prospects at the trade deadline. Now he’s back — for two years and $16.5 million (and a $500k trade kicker this time!) as Ken Rosenthal is reporting — and the Phillies hope he can continue his good work for the team.

Last year’s production was a high water mark for the pitcher, thanks to a change in philosophy against lefties, perhaps. He had his best career numbers against southpaws last year, thanks to a shift in his use of the slider. He not only used it more against lefties than he had since his first full year in the league, but he also varied its location better.

Take a look at his slider locations to lefties in 2016 (left), when they hit for a .379 wOBA against him, and then those locations in 2017 (right), when they hit for a .261 wOBA against him.

Wait a second. The bad year is the one where he located the slider to two spots and mixed it up. Last year he was awesome against lefties, and he basically threw it a ton and down the middle against them. Weird.

No matter. Against righties, Neshek has been consistently great. He has the sixth-best wOBA against right-handed hitters over the last five years.

Maybe he’ll only be dominant against righties, and then be traded again. That’ll be just fine.


Job Posting: Atlanta Braves Major League Advance Scout Trainee

Position: Atlanta Braves Major League Advance Scout Trainee

Location: Atlanta
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Baseball in Japan Is Surprisingly Similar

With two important players coming to Major League Baseball from Nippon Professional Baseball this season — Miles Mikolas and Shohei Ohtani, of course — we’re hearing a lot about how differently baseball is played in Japan. While it’s true that they take Mondays off and starters generally pitch just once a week, it’s also true that some of the differences between the two leagues are probably overstated.

Part of that might have something to do with the metrics on which we dwell when discussing the two leagues. Home runs certainly receive a lot of attention. Velocity readings, too. But what about other aspects of the game?

Curious, I decided to look through the lens of plate discipline and batted-ball spray to see how similar Japan’s league is to America’s leagues, major and minor.

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