Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Zack Cozart and Carlos Santana signings and the Matt Moore trade, then answer listener emails about when it makes sense to rebuild and how the second wild card has affected that calculus, Shohei Ohtani’s intel on other teams, the competitive futures of the Cubs, Yankees, and Dodgers, how a team could benefit from controlling the schedule, Oscar Robles and hitters with weird lines on 0-2 and 3-0, what “quality control” coaches do, a team with no coaches (and too many coaches), Trout/Ohtani vs. Judge/Stanton, and more.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jeff’s Winter Meetings experience and then discuss everything that did and didn’t go down while the baseball world was in Orlando, including the Reds’ published pitch to Shohei Ohtani, Ohtani’s injury status, the Marcell Ozuna, Stephen Piscotty, and Ian Kinsler trades (and the leveled-up Angels), Manny Machado trade rumors, and more.

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This year’s Rule 5 draft came and went yesterday, with 18 players selected in the major-league phase of the draft. All the players selected will need to spend the entire 2018 season on their new team’s active roster (or disabled list). Otherwise, they have to be offered back to their original team.

Since most of these players do not have any sort of prospect pedigree anyway, I utilized the stats-only version of KATOH. WAR figures represent projections for the first six years of a player’s major-league career. For a scouting companion to this post, read Eric Longenhagen’s analysis from earlier this afternoon.

Players listed in order of draft selection.

*****

1. Detroit Tigers
Victor Reyes, OF, 1.9 WAR (from D-backs)

Reyes has long been a KATOH darling. Look no further than his player page to see the articles in which he has been tagged.

KATOH has always believed in Reyes’s blend of youth, contact, and speed — a skill set he carried into Double-A last year. Reyes showed everything except for power as 22-year-old in Double-A last year. Given his 6-foot-3 frame, I wouldn’t be surprised if more power eventually shows up.

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The major-league phase of Thursday’s Rule 5 draft began with its annual roll call of club confirming the number of players currently on their 40-man rosters and ended with a total of 18 players added to new big-league clubs. Below are brief scouting reports on the players selected. I also encourage you to read Chris Mitchell’s stat-focused preview of the group, overall.

But, first: a refresher on the Rule 5 Draft’s complex rules. Players who signed their first pro contract at age 18 or younger are eligible for selection after five years of minor-league service if their parent club has not yet added them to the team’s 40-man roster. For players who signed at age 19 or older, the timeline is four years. Teams with the worst win/loss record from the previous season pick first, and those which select a player must not only (a) pay said player’s former club $100,000, but also (b) keep the player on their 25-man active roster throughout the entirety of the following season (with a couple of exceptions, mostly involving the disabled list). If a selected player doesn’t make his new team’s active roster, he is offered back to his former team for half of the initial fee. After the player’s first year on the roster, he can be optioned back to the minor leagues.

These rules typically limit the talent pool to middle-relief prospects or position players with one-dimensional skillsets or sometimes more talented prospects who aren’t remotely ready for the majors. This creates an environment where selections are made more based on fit and team need than just talent, but teams find solid big-league role players in the Rule 5 every year and occasionally scoop up an eventual star. Let’s dive into the scouting reports on this year’s group.

First Round

1. Detroit Tigers
Victor Reyes, OF (from Arizona)

Reyes is a 23-year-old, switch-hitting outfielder who slashed .292/.332/.399 at Double-A Jackson during the 2017 regular season and then hit .316 and stole 12 bases in 20 Arizona Fall League games. He’s a plus runner with good hand-eye coordination and feel for contact as a left-handed hitter. He also lacks any modicum of in-game power and his right-handed swing is a mess. Scouts are not in unanimous agreement about his defensive ability in center field, though the ones who think he can play there every day believe he could make up the larger half of a platoon in center. Others see him as a bench outfielder.

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Yes, the offseason is just starting, and because of that, it might seem premature to begin considering which team has most improved its roster for 2018. Merely by winning the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, though, the Angels have probably already done enough to emerge victorious from winter. And more than that, the Angels remain active.

Over the last few days, they’ve added enough wins to make themselves favorites for a Wild Card berth, at the very least.

The Angels doesn’t necessarily deserve all the credit. Signing Ohtani is kind of like handing over $20 at a local convenience store and winning a Powerball jackpot. While the team’s front office no doubt made a compelling pitch, Ohtani’s decision seemed to be tied to geography and factors beyond many clubs’ control.

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Carlos Santana is trading Polish Boys for cheesesteaks, looks like, agreeing this afternoon on a three-year, $60 million deal (with an option for a fourth, at $17.5 million) to join the Phillies. The deal probably makes sense from a money standpoint, and Santana is a really good switch-hitting slugger with power and patience, but… does it make sense from the Phillies’ perspective?

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One player whom the baseball industry and vacationing families might not have expected to see this week at Disney’s sprawling Swan and Dolphin Resort, the site of this year’s Winter Meetings, was Melvin Upton Jr. You might have — particularly if you’re a Braves fans — erased Upton from your memory. But Upton was there to sell himself to interested clubs. He was ultimately successful.

More on that in a moment. First: a brief tour of Upton’s career, which has followed an unusual trajectory.

The former No. 2 overall pick and elite prospect was moved to the outfield early in his major-league career by the Rays due to his shortcomings at shortstop. And it was in Tampa’s center field where he emerged as a star-level player, averaging 3.6 WAR per season from 2007 to -12. Upton possessed a rare blend of plate discipline, power, and speed. He then signed a lucrative free-agent deal with the Braves. Things didn’t go well. He posted a -0.6 WAR in 2013 and a 0.3 mark in 2014. To rid themselves of the three years and $57 million remaining on Upton’s contract, the Braves included him with Craig Kimbrel in a package that sent both players to San Diego before the 2015 season.

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