The Detroit Tigers are in full rebuild mode, and Isaac Paredes projects as a big part of their future. His bat is the primary reason why. Despite an August swoon that caused his numbers to plummet, the 18-year-old shortstop finished the season with a .725 OPS. Given that he was one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, that’s not exactly chicken soup.

Paredes was acquired by the Tigers, along with Jeimer Candelario, in the trade-deadline deal that sent Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to the Cubs, and the news threw him for a loop. When I talked a him a week and a half later, the Hermosillo, Mexico native admitted to having been shocked and not particularly pleased. His initial thought was “this is something bad.”

Once his head stopped spinning, his attitude shifted to “this is a good thing.” Paredes realized he was going to an organization that would be relying heavily on players just like himself. Read the rest of this entry »

Each week, we publish in the neighborhood of 75 articles across our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them relievers.

Other Players: Matt Albers / Yonder Alonso / Jake Arrieta / Alex Avila / Jose Bautista / Carlos Beltran / Jay Bruce / Melky Cabrera / Trevor Cahill / Welington Castillo / Lorenzo Cain / Andrew Cashner / Jhoulys Chacin / Steve Cishek / Alex Cobb / Bartolo Colon / Zack Cozart / Johnny Cueto / Yu Darvish / Wade Davis / Lucas Duda / Jarrod Dyson / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Doug Fister / Todd Frazier / Jaime Garcia / Carlos Gomez / Carlos Gonzalez / Miguel Gonzalez / Curtis Granderson / Luke Gregerson / Jeremy Hellickson / David Hernandez / Greg Holland / Matt Holliday / Eric Hosmer / Tommy Hunter / Chris Iannetta / Jon Jay / Howie Kendrick / Brandon Kintzler / Francisco Liriano / Jonathan Lucroy / Lance Lynn / J.D. Martinez / Cameron Maybin / Jake McGee / Mike Minor / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Brandon Morrow / Mike Moustakas / Pat Neshek / Juan Nicasio / Ricky Nolasco / Eduardo Nunez / Seung Hwan Oh / Brandon Phillips / Michael Pineda / Addison Reed / Jose Reyes / CC Sabathia / Carlos Santana / Masahiro Tanaka / Chris Tillman / Justin Upton / Jason Vargas / Neil Walker / Jayson Werth.

Sergio Romo (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Romo:

• Has averaged 48 IP and 0.8 WAR over last three seasons.
• Has averaged 1.0 WAR per 65 IP* over last three seasons.
• Recorded a 0.3 WAR in 55.2 IP in 2017.
• Is projected to record 0.2 WAR per 65 IP**.
• Is entering his age-35 season.
• Made $3.0M in 2017 as part of deal signed in February.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a reliever.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Romo.

Read the rest of this entry »

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the giant and large 2016-17 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them relievers.

Other Players: Matt Albers / Yonder Alonso / Jake Arrieta / Alex Avila / Jose Bautista / Carlos Beltran / Jay Bruce / Melky Cabrera / Trevor Cahill / Welington Castillo / Lorenzo Cain / Andrew Cashner / Jhoulys Chacin / Steve Cishek / Alex Cobb / Bartolo Colon / Zack Cozart / Johnny Cueto / Yu Darvish / Wade Davis / Lucas Duda / Jarrod Dyson / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Doug Fister / Todd Frazier / Jaime Garcia / Carlos Gomez / Carlos Gonzalez / Miguel Gonzalez / Curtis Granderson / Luke Gregerson / Jeremy Hellickson / David Hernandez / Greg Holland / Matt Holliday / Eric Hosmer / Tommy Hunter / Chris Iannetta / Jon Jay / Howie Kendrick / Brandon Kintzler / Francisco Liriano / Jonathan Lucroy / Lance Lynn / J.D. Martinez / Cameron Maybin / Jake McGee / Mike Minor / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Mike Moustakas / Ricky Nolasco / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Michael Pineda / Jose Reyes / CC Sabathia / Carlos Santana / Masahiro Tanaka / Chris Tillman / Justin Upton / Jason Vargas / Neil Walker / Jayson Werth.

Brandon Morrow (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Morrow:

• Has averaged 31 IP and 0.7 WAR over last three seasons.
• Has averaged 1.5 WAR per 65 IP* over last three seasons.
• Recorded a 1.6 WAR in 43.2 IP in 2017.
• Is projected to record 1.2 WAR per 65 IP**.
• Is entering his age-33 season.
• Made $1.3M in 2017 as part of deal signed in January.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a reliever.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Morrow.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan discuss the end of the season and the challenging (if somewhat merciful) transition to offseason mode, the resolution of the World Series and an underwhelming Game 7, the best and worst World Series performers, the significance of the Astros’ victory, the difficulty of repeating as champion, the outlooks for the Astros, Dodgers, and other 2017 playoff teams in 2018 and beyond, the uncertain status of Shohei Otani, new t-shirts for the show, and more.

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them relievers.

Other Players: Matt Albers / Yonder Alonso / Jake Arrieta / Alex Avila / Jose Bautista / Carlos Beltran / Jay Bruce / Melky Cabrera / Trevor Cahill / Welington Castillo / Lorenzo Cain / Andrew Cashner / Jhoulys Chacin / Steve Cishek / Alex Cobb / Bartolo Colon / Zack Cozart / Johnny Cueto / Yu Darvish / Wade Davis / Lucas Duda / Jarrod Dyson / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Doug Fister / Todd Frazier / Jaime Garcia / Carlos Gomez / Carlos Gonzalez / Miguel Gonzalez / Curtis Granderson / Luke Gregerson / Jeremy Hellickson / David Hernandez / Matt Holliday / Eric Hosmer / Chris Iannetta / Jon Jay / Howie Kendrick / Francisco Liriano / Jonathan Lucroy / Lance Lynn / J.D. Martinez / Cameron Maybin / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Mike Moustakas / Ricky Nolasco / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Michael Pineda / Jose Reyes / CC Sabathia / Carlos Santana / Masahiro Tanaka / Chris Tillman / Justin Upton / Jason Vargas / Neil Walker / Jayson Werth.

Greg Holland (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Holland:

• Has averaged 51 IP and 0.9 WAR over last three seasons*.
• Has averaged 1.2 WAR per 65 IP** over last three seasons.
• Recorded a 1.1 WAR in 57.1 IP in 2017.
• Is projected to record 1.4 WAR per 65 IP***.
• Is entering his age-32 season.
• Made $7.0M in 2017 as part of deal signed in January.

*Excludes 2016 season, which Holland missed.
**That is, a roughly average number of innings for a reliever.
***Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Holland.

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The Oakland A’s gave up a pair of quality relievers when they traded Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Washington Nationals in July. The trio of players they got in return are pretty talented themselves. One is already established — Blake Treinen logged 16 saves this year — while the others are promising prospects.

Sheldon Neuse, a 22-year-old infielder out of the University of Oklahoma, recorded a .321/.382/.502 slash line in his first full season of pro ball. The 2016 second-round pick did his damage at three levels, hopscotching from Low-A to High-A to Double-A.

And then there’s Jesus Luzardo, whose ceiling would be best described as “lofty.” While getting his feet wet at the lowest rungs of the minors — Rookie-level ball and the New York-Penn League — the polished-beyond-his-years southpaw struck out 48 and walked just five in 43.1 innings. His ERA was a smooth-and-shiny 1.66.

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Congratulations to the Houston Astros! After distinguishing themselves as one of the best teams in the regular season, they managed to survive the giant Plinko board that is the postseason. Truly a worthy champion.

There will certainly be much attention paid to the World Series winner in the wake of their victory. For the moment, however, I’d like to consider the team that fell just short — and, specifically, to examine their much-maligned ace, Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw stepped onto the mound in Game 7, his team needing him to hold the wall in the worst way. The Dodgers were already down five runs when Kershaw entered, their win probability reduced to just 10%. It was pretty dire.

Kershaw responded, throwing four innings of shutout ball, striking out four, unintentionally walking none, and limiting hard contact along the way. He looked like the guy who’s established himself as the best pitcher of this generation. As the game unfolded Wednesday night, the fans who joined the Game 7 live blog grasped three central points of Kershaw’s performance in very short order, as illustrated by the following excerpt from that chat:

These six comments are representative of observations made by other readers, observations which fell into the three following categories:

1. That Kershaw pitched effectively.
2. That naysayers would comment about the low leverage of the moment.
3. That, however well Kershaw fared, it wouldn’t alter The Narrative.

I’d like to address those points in a moment. However, before we descend (as Jonathan Yardley would put it) “into the Void,” let’s take a quick step back and appreciate Clayton Kershaw’s performance on Wednesday, in what will likely be a lost chord in his playoff opus.

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Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2017-18 free-agent market.

Below are links to ballots for five of this year’s free agents, all of them relief types.

Other Players: Yonder Alonso / Jake Arrieta / Alex Avila / Jose Bautista / Carlos Beltran / Jay Bruce / Melky Cabrera / Trevor Cahill / Welington Castillo / Lorenzo Cain / Andrew Cashner / Jhoulys Chacin / Alex Cobb / Bartolo Colon / Zack Cozart / Johnny Cueto / Yu Darvish / Lucas Duda / Jarrod Dyson / Alcides Escobar / Yunel Escobar / Doug Fister / Todd Frazier / Jaime Garcia / Carlos Gomez / Carlos Gonzalez / Miguel Gonzalez / Curtis Granderson / Jeremy Hellickson / Matt Holliday / Eric Hosmer / Chris Iannetta / Jon Jay / Howie Kendrick / Francisco Liriano / Jonathan Lucroy / Lance Lynn / J.D. Martinez / Cameron Maybin / Mitch Moreland / Logan Morrison / Mike Moustakas / Ricky Nolasco / Eduardo Nunez / Brandon Phillips / Michael Pineda / Jose Reyes / CC Sabathia / Carlos Santana / Masahiro Tanaka / Chris Tillman / Justin Upton / Jason Vargas / Neil Walker / Jayson Werth.

Matt Albers (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Albers:

• Has averaged 50 IP and 0.1 WAR over last three seasons.
• Has averaged 0.1 WAR per 65 IP* over last three seasons.
• Recorded a 0.8 WAR in 61.0 IP in 2017.
• Is projected to record 0.5 WAR per 65 IP**.
• Is entering his age-35 season.
• Made $1.2M in 2017 as part of deal signed in March.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a reliever.
**Prorated version of final 2017 depth-chart projections available here.

Click here to estimate years and dollars for Albers.

Read the rest of this entry »