The rumblings have started. On Tuesday night in the unincorporated territory north of Atlanta, the American League clawed its way back from a 6-0 deficit in the late innings, wrestling the All-Star Game into its first ever swing-off. The problem with the swing-off, the reason for the rumblings, was apparent even before the ninth inning ended: It might be too much fun. Too much fun could result in disaster, an eruption that would reshape the landscape of baseball for all time to come, killing extra innings once and for all and replacing them with something that smacked suspiciously of soccer.

The protectors of baseball’s sovereign dignity chewed their fingernails to the quick as Brent Rooker readied himself in the batter’s box to the opening strains of “Hotel California.” They wailed when he launched two baseballs into the left-center field seats, thrilling everyone with eyes to see or ears to hear. Steven Kwan leapt into the air with the innocent delight of a child. It was a dark omen.

“Will no one think of the children?” moaned the traditionalists when Kyle Stowers punched one over the hulking brick wall in right center and jubilation reigned near Atlanta. Their fear reached a crescendo when Kyle Schwarber duck-walked into the box, leaned back, and shook his bat in all directions as if to ward off any evil, defense-minded spirits. Schwarber, who has spent his entire career smacking monstrous, momentous home runs as casually as the rest of us put our socks on in the morning, had the potential to alter baseball’s future, cementing the swing-off as a consummation devoutly to be wished, a future too fun to avoid. If any player could turn his three swings into three signature homers, it was Schwarber. Read the rest of this entry »

In one sense, we are halfway through the season. In another sense, though, we are not — we are 59.5% of the way through the season, if you count up all the games played. Regardless! There’s no baseball today, so what better time to take stock of the general state of the sport?

To that end, I’ve identified seven trends that have defined the 2025 season to this point. In no particular order:

Changeups are going wild

You may have heard at some point that this was the year of the kick change. All through March and April, local and national writers alike regaled the baseball reading audience with stories of this mythical new pitch, destined to revolutionize pitching as we know it. Read the rest of this entry »

With the draft and the All-Star Game out of the way, the next waypoint on the baseball calendar is the trade deadline. In other words, it is officially Trade Season. And the Royals and Pirates kicked it off on Wednesday morning with the first deadline deal. I got a little excited; sometimes, when the Royals and Pirates make a deal, you end up with Sir Francis Drake’s invaluable contribution to the defeat of the Spanish Armada at the Battle of Gravelines in 1588.

This was not one of those times. Kansas City sent minor league infielder Cam Devanney to Pittsburgh in exchange for Adam Frazier. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen discuss the lows and highs of the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game and swing-off, plus banter about beef boys, Blooper, kissing, and the timing of the All-Star break, then (1:03:40) recap the amateur draft, touching on the selection of Eli Willits first overall, first-round risers/fallers, teams that had the best drafts, the latest Holliday (Ethan), the Twins’ extremely tall pitcher Jason Reitz, Boston’s Marcus Phillips pick, and the predictability of the draft vs. international signings.

Audio intro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Austin Klewan, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Derby formats
Link to Derby formats piece
Link to Cal’s plunking
Link to Derby robbery
Link to one-inch difference
Link to Cal/Skubal mic’d up
Link to Schwarbombs
Link to Posnanski on the ASG
Link to Passan on the swing-off
Link to swing-off surprise report
Link to the Miz ASG story
Link to ABS piece 1
Link to ABS piece 2
Link to Scully’s Aaron call
Link to Aaron tribute
Link to Roberts sidestep
Link to beef boy story
Link to Sam on the Dumper
Link to Meg’s Blooper selfie
Link to Mr. Met video
Link to Vinnie/Cags kiss
Link to Sheehan on the ASB
Link to Olympics timing
Link to Eric’s mock
Link to Eric’s ranking
Link to Eric’s recap
Link to Bremner article
Link to Reitz Reddit post
Link to Down on the Farm study

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Here’s another two-fer covering teams struggling to get production out of a pair of important up-the-middle positions — teams with which devotees of this series may be overly familiar in this context. While still focusing on clubs that meet the loose definition of a contender (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance is worth a look.

Guardians

If it feels like this is déjà vu all over again, you’re not wrong. This is the third straight season that Guardians shortstops have landed on the Killers list; two years ago it was due to the struggles of Amed Rosario, while last year it was because of those of Brayan Rocchio. Rocchio entered the 2024 season ranked 59th on our Top 100 Prospects list but hit just .206/.298/.316 (80 wRC+) in 442 plate appearances, and even with excellent defense (11 DRS, 4 FRV), he finished with just 1.1 WAR. He struggled even more mightily at the outset of this season, to the point that the 24-year-old switch-hitter was optioned to Triple-A Columbus on May 12. Read the rest of this entry »

James Tibbs III might best be described as a hitting rat. Drafted 13th overall last year by the San Francisco Giants out of Florida State University, and subsequently shipped to the Boston Red Sox in last month’s blockbuster Rafael Devers deal, the 22-year-old outfielder lives and breathes baseball — particularly the part that entails standing in the batter’s box. From a young age, Tibbs has doggedly worked on honing his left-handed stroke.

An Atlanta native who attended high school in nearby Marietta, Tibbs excelled collegiately, slashing .338/.462/.685 over three seasons at the ACC school, with a 28-homer junior campaign further enhancing his profile. And he’s continued to hit in pro ball. He played just 26 games after inking a contract last summer, and his results were mixed; he posted a 153 wRC+ in nine games (42 plate appearances) in A-ball, earned a promotion, then went cold in High-A. Now in his first full professional season, he’s back to doing what he does best: bashing baseballs. Tibbs put up a 132 wRC+ with a dozen home runs in High-A prior to the trade, and since joining his new organization, he has logged a 107 wRC+ over 86 plate appearances while acclimating to Double-A.

Ranked 14th in what Eric Longenhagen called “the best farm system in baseball” when our Red Sox Top Prospects list was published in late June, the promising young outfielder was assigned a 45 FV, with raw power graded as his best hitting tool. Tibbs sat down to talk hitting prior to a recent Portland Sea Dogs home game.

———

David Laurila: You were drafted one year ago. Are you the same hitter now, or has anything meaningfully changed?

James Tibbs III: “I’m pretty much the same. It’s what’s gotten me this far, and I’ve kind of tried to replicate that as much as possible. I’ve never been one to try to make changes unless it’s absolutely necessary, because I play off of feel. I’ll make adjustments based off of that feel, but I’m doing it trying to get back to my base. My base has been pretty consistent for the last… three years? Two years? Something like that.

“I feel like I cover the plate well. I feel like I can see the ball well from where I stand and how I load. I feel like I use my body well in order to get to the spots that I can’t necessarily cover. So yeah, it’s been pretty consistent for the most part.”

Laurila: How would you describe your approach at the plate? Read the rest of this entry »

When you think of Garrett Crochet, you probably think of a lanky lefty flinging filthy fastballs past flummoxed hitters. Nearly half the pitches Crochet threw last year were four-seamers. The pitch averaged 97.1 mph, and according to Statcast’s run values, it was worth 21 runs, making it the fifth-most valuable pitch in the game, trailing estimable offerings like Emmanuel Clase’s cutter and the sliders of Dylan Cease and Chris Sale. Crochet’s other pitches were worth a combined -2 runs. Although he ran a 3.58 ERA while pitching in front of a porous White Sox defense, the four-seamer led him to a 2.38 xFIP and 2.75 DRA. Both marks were the best among all starters. Crochet has kept right on rolling in 2025. He’s running a 2.23 ERA with a 2.40 FIP, and his 4.3 WAR ranks second among all pitchers. It would be easy to glance at the top line numbers and assume that Crochet is the same pitcher he was last year, just in front of a better defense. But there have been some subtle changes under the hood, and his relationship with his fastball now looks very different.

When a trade brought Crochet to Boston in December, the reasonable assumption was that he’d back off the four-seamer at least a little. Under Craig Breslow and Andrew Bailey, the Red Sox became the most fastball-averse team in the history of the game, throwing four-seamers and sinkers just 36.8% of the time in 2024. No one expected Crochet to ditch one of the game’s greatest weapons, but it stood to reason that the Red Sox might tweak his usage just a little bit in favor of his sweeper, his cutter, and his new sinker, all of which looked like excellent pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

Longtime readers of this site might remember my tremendous affection for Pittsburgh reliever David Bednar. It’s OK if you don’t; I last wrote about him in May 2023, which is so long ago the Pirates were in first place at the time. Bednar was a rock back in the day, a top-class closer for a team that frequently disappointed. But from 2021 to the end of 2023, he was terrific: ERAs in the low-to-mid-2.00s every year, with strikeout rates in the high 20s and low 30s.

That trend stopped abruptly in 2024. Again, this wasn’t front-page national news; wise fans had by this point learned to ignore any Pirate shorter than 6-foot-6. But Bednar posted a 5.77 ERA, blew a career-worst seven saves, and saw his strikeout rate plummet to 22.1%, more than 10 percentage points from where it was two years earlier.

A sad development, but not an unforeseeable one. Relief pitchers, even good ones, even reliable ones, have a shorter shelf life than most condiments. But he’s back this year; in 36 games, Bednar has a 2.53 ERA, a career-high 34.6% strikeout rate, a 6.9% walk rate (his lowest since he joined the Pirates five years ago), a 2.02 FIP, and 13 saves out of 13 opportunities. Read the rest of this entry »

Every July, FanGraphs releases our annual Trade Value Series highlighting the top 50 players in baseball, taking contract status and performance into account. For the past four years, I’ve been in charge of this exercise, with liberal amounts of help from the rest of the FanGraphs staff and some contacts on the team side. This year, I’ve got company. For the first time, FanGraphs readers will be creating their own trade value list. Read the rest of this entry »

Today we turn our attention to some chilly performances at the hot corner. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look.

Cubs

The Cubs began the season with 2023 first-round pick Matt Shaw — no. 13 on our preseason Top 100 Prospects list as a 55-FV prospect — as their starter at third base, but he struggled out of the gate, hitting just .172/.294/.241 (62 wRC+) from Opening Day through April 14 before being optioned to Triple-A Iowa. Jon Berti did the bulk of the work in his absence, with Gage Workman, Vidal Bruján, Nicky Lopez and even Justin Turner spotting there as well before Shaw was recalled on May 19. The 23-year-old rookie got hot upon returning, but struggled in June before starting July in a 1-for-27 funk; he is now batting just .198/.276/.280 (61 wRC+) with two homers, 11 steals, and 0.0 WAR. While he’s underperformed relative to his expected stats (including a .350 xSLG), his 83.3-mph average exit velocity places him in the first percentile, and his 26.8% hard-hit rate in the fifth. Notably, he rode the pine in the days leading up to the All-Star break, making one start and two late-inning appearances over the Cubs’ last five games. Manager Craig Counsell called Shaw’s absence from the lineup “just a little breather here.” Read the rest of this entry »