Los Angeles Dodgers Top 49 Prospects

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2131: Season Preview Series: Phillies and Angels

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Shohei Ohtani’s surprise marriage announcement (5:15), and Portia of Ohtani fan account @shoheisaveus returns (18:13) to tell Ben how the news was received by the Shobae community. Then Ben and Meg Stat Blast (36:49) about the biggest year-to-year changes in WAR produced by different players who wore the same uniform number for the same team, preview the 2024 Philadelphia Phillies (44:20) with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb, and preview the 2024 Los Angeles Angels (1:21:51) with The Athletic’s Sam Blum.

Audio intro: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial 1: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Horny Version)
Audio interstitial 2: The Shirey Brothers, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to thread on Cal’s stats
Link to anti-Streak take
Link to owner Cal article
Link to Ohtani’s Insta post
Link to Portia’s first appearance
Link to Ohtani comments
Link to Ichiro dog secrecy
Link to Matsui marriage
Link to Matsui wife drawing
Link to “Ohtani loss” tweet
Link to other Ohtani tweet
Link to John on Ed Sullivan
Link to Dozier tweet
Link to Stat Blast data
Link to Stat Blast song cover
Link to Kenny Jackelen’s Twitter
Link to Phillies offseason tracker
Link to Phillies depth chart
Link to Matt’s Athletic archive
Link to himbo article 1
Link to himbo article 2
Link to Harper offer report
Link to Harper extension article
Link to Matt on Realmuto
Link to Tango on Realmuto’s framing
Link to Eno on Dombrowski pens
Link to Laurila on Dombrowski pens
Link to Sam on Bryant
Link to Moreno report
Link to Angels offseason tracker
Link to Angels depth chart
Link to Sam on Percival
Link to Sam on Rendon
Link to EW on Rendon
Link to Sam’s Athletic archive
Link to Sam on broadcasts
Link to Sam on Schanuel
Link to FG top 100
Link to MLB top 100
Link to BP farm rankings
Link to Soto/Bradley report

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com


Quit Calling Balls in My Heart (Zone)

Robert Edwards-USA TODAY Sports

In his recent piece about umpire accuracy, Davy Andrews noted that plate umpires correctly called 99.26% of heart zone pitches in 2023. When I first read that number, I didn’t think missed calls in the heart zone warranted any closer investigation. For most of us, ninety-nine point anything is as good as 100; you don’t spend much time worrying about the 0.01% of germs Purell can’t kill. Then again, if you were to consider the sheer amount of bacteria on your hands at any given moment, you might opt for a second squirt of sanitizer. A tiny percentage of a tremendous number is still going to be a pretty big number. The same is true for missed calls in the heart zone. There aren’t quite as many pitches in an MLB season as there are germs on your phone screen, but there are enough that a few tenths of percent of heart zone offerings still represents a pretty hefty figure. In 2023, plate umpires watched 381 pitches sail over the heart of the plate without signaling a strike. When you frame it that way (pun absolutely intended), it actually sounds pretty bad.

I wasn’t nearly as surprised to learn that plate umpires missed 428 calls in the chase zone last season. Offerings in the chase zone are designed to look hittable out of the pitcher’s hand. An especially talented catcher can make them look hittable as they reach his glove, too. Meanwhile, a batter might like to earn a few extra balls inside the zone, but he doesn’t have the same influence over calls as do his opponents. Besides, if a hitter recognizes that a pitch is coming for the heart zone, he’s not going to wriggle and contort his body in hopes of inducing a missed call – he’s going to swing. To that end, batters are much more likely to swing in the heart zone than the chase zone, which means that on a rate basis, umpires miss significantly more calls over the heart of the plate because there are fewer total pitches there that need to be called. While 381 and 428 are similar figures, batters took 2.4 times as many pitches in the chase zone as in the heart zone. Apparently, it’s harder than I thought to call strikes what they are. Read the rest of this entry »


The Weakest Positions on American League Contenders, 2024 Edition

Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Even with an extra day in February this year, Matt Chapman remains unsigned, his free agency having lingered past the start of exhibition season. Admittedly, the soon-to-be-31-year-old third baseman is coming off of an uneven season marked by a late slump related to a finger injury, but he’s been reliably productive throughout his seven-year career, with good-to-great defense bolstering his value at the plate. Meanwhile, his former (?) team, the Blue Jays — who reportedly offered him a nine-figure extension before he hit free agency — have cobbled together an uninspiring solution at third base.

Chapman isn’t the only remaining free agent who could provide a significant upgrade, but he’s by far the best position player remaining on the shelves, and the combination of his absence and the Blue Jays’ needs stands out as I turn to the American League edition of my roundup of the most glaring holes on contending teams (the National League edition is here). For this exercise, I’ve highlighted the spots that per our projections — which combine ZiPS and Steamer as well as playing time estimates from RosterResource — fall below a combined 2.0 WAR on teams whose Playoff Odds sit at or above 25%.

Why 2.0 WAR? That’s the rough equivalent of average play across a full season, but because of the general tendency to overproject playing time and keep even the weakest teams with positive WARs at each position (in reality over 10% of them will finish in the red), our position player Depth Chart values at the team level are inflated by about 20%. That is, instead of having a total of 1,000 WAR projected across the 30 teams, and 57% of that (570 WAR) allocated to position players, our Depth Chart values currently add up to about 682 WAR. Thus, I am discounting the team values that you see on the Depth Chart pages by 20%, and focusing on the lowest-ranked contenders among those whose adjusted values fall below that 2.0 WAR threshold. The individual WAR values cited will remain as they are on the Depth Chart pages, however, and it’s worth noting that many of the players here — particularly youngsters with shorter track records, including some from our Top 100 Prospects list — don’t project particularly well but still have considerable upside. Read the rest of this entry »


Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/29/24

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ack, I’m here!

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Got lost fuming on Twitter

12:08
Placido Polanco fan club president: Just read Ben Clemens’ article about team depth. Don’t the ZiPS projected standings account for depth? Does ZiPS handle depth differently than the way proposed in Ben’s article?

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sort of. ZiPS always has a generalized model that varies the playing time availability of top players so sometimes those Plan Bs or Cs or Ds get a lot more playing time than you expect

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For example, in that one run in the AL projections that I alluded to for the O’s, the O’s mostly ended up with David Banuelos and Michael Perez catching

12:09
Harry Lime: Can you suggest any articles that talk on late round players for deep drafts? thx

Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Get Excited About Spencer Strider’s Curveball

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

It’s almost March! It’s time for the weather to feel like it should be changing, only for it to not really change for a couple more weeks. It’s time for the very first baseball of the year. It’s time for massive overreactions to the tiniest sample sizes imaginable. With that in mind, sound the alarm: Spencer Strider threw three curveballs! “What’s that,” you say? “Spencer Strider doesn’t throw a curveball,” you say? Welcome to 2024, my friend, where anything is possible (except for opaque pants, apparently).

Earlier this month, there was some confusion about the pitch, as Strider indicated that he was simply playing with the shape of his slider. However, since then, both he and Brian Snitker have confirmed that the pitch is a curveball. He’s thrown it in live batting practice and in Saturday’s spring training game against the Rays. It’s the second pitch in the video below:


Read the rest of this entry »


What Could the Orioles Want From Kolten Wong?

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

On Wednesday, the Baltimore Orioles signed two veterans — pitcher Julio Teheran and second baseman Kolten Wong — to minor league contracts with non-roster spring training invites. The Teheran signing has a pretty obvious logic: The veteran right-hander hasn’t been anything like a frontline starter in the majors since about 2016, or even a reliable rotation option since 2019.

But despite having come up with the Braves around the same time as Lew Burdette, Teheran is still only 33. He threw 71 2/3 competent innings for the Brewers last year, with only a 17.4% strikeout rate but a 4.40 ERA, which will play for a guy on a tryout. After the Corbin Burnes trade, the Orioles — who wanted badly for starting pitching in 2023 — had assembled a formidable front four of Burnes, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and John Means. But Bradish and Means both suffered health setbacks that’ll at the very least delay their ramp-up for the season.

In short: The Orioles just had two rotation spots open up suddenly and Teheran was available, presumably cheap, and capable of sucking up major league innings. It’s a bit harder to see the need for Wong, who last year had a wRC+ of just 48 and was nearly a win below replacement in just 250 plate appearances.

More to the point, the Orioles need another infielder like they need a poke in the eye. Read the rest of this entry »


A New Way of Looking at Depth

Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

One of the great perks of working at FanGraphs is that I get to discuss baseball with my equally obsessed coworkers. Obviously, this is the kind of job you don’t get into unless you love the sport. A lot of the time, that means we just end up nerding out over how much we enjoy some minor but cool thing, or perhaps discussing our favorite of the game’s idiosyncrasies. Sometimes, though, we come up with new ideas together, or one person’s passing fancy turns into another person’s brainstorm, and before you know it, something nifty and novel is happening.

That’s why I’m writing this article today. At the December Winter Meetings, a subset of us sat down for our annual let’s-talk-about-fun-baseball-problems technical meeting. David Appelman and Sean Dolinar ran things. Folks like Jeff Zimmermann and Dan Szymborski popped in at various points. Jason Martinez and Keaton Arneson had big plans for how to improve the site’s functionality. Those guys are great at building models, running websites — advancing the state of how FanGraphs (and ZiPS) works, basically. I like to make jokes and write articles about bunts, so as far as I can tell, I got invited because I’m good at coming up with bad but interesting ideas.

That said, this year one thing was on a lot of our minds: depth. I’ve written a lot about how well our playoff odds reflect reality. They’re pretty good! But there’s always been an obvious problem with them. They use static rosters, which means they don’t account for the fact that some teams are more vulnerable to injury or underperformance than others. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Boston Red Sox – Multiple Openings

Direct Links (Please see full job postings below):

Developer, Baseball Systems
Analyst, Baseball Analytics


Developer, Baseball Systems

Location: Boston, MA, United States
Status: Full-Time / On-Site

DEPARTMENT OVERVIEW:
Members of the Baseball Systems Team at the Boston Red Sox are focused on designing, building, and refining the software and data pipelines used within Baseball Operations. These tools and applications are an integral part of the decision-making process, are directly integrated in the workflows of all departments within Baseball Operations, and provide an efficient, consistent, and accessible experience when interacting with our internal data sources and applications.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Developer, Baseball Systems position will be a member of the baseball operations software development team, and is responsible for the design, development, and support, of all baseball systems. This individual will work closely with members of baseball operations to understand business requirements that drive the analysis, design, and development of quality baseball systems and solutions. This position is focused heavily on front-end development, and will collaborate closely with colleagues on the software development team and baseball operations personnel from all departments.

RESPONSIBILITIES

  • Create leading-edge baseball solutions together with the software development team and others on new and existing baseball systems
  • Contribute to the design and implementation of the software architecture and embrace a software engineering mindset
  • Participate in key phases of the software development process of critical baseball applications, including requirements gathering, analysis, effort estimation, technical investigation, software design and implementation, testing, bug fixing, and quality assurance
  • Responsible for the design and development of complex web-based user interfaces, web services, back-end logic, and other aspects of web applications
  • Actively participate with other software developers in design reviews, code reviews, and other best practices
  • Work closely at times with baseball analysts to design and implement solutions to their data needs
  • Respond to and resolve technical problems and issues in a timely manner
  • Identify and implement creative solutions for technical challenges

CHARACTERISTICS/QUALIFICATIONS

  • Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science, Software Engineering, Computer Engineering, or a related field
  • 0-2 years of front-end development experience building web applications with frameworks such as Angular or React, and experience developing with Typescript, CSS, HTML, C#, ServiceStack, T-SQL, or similar technologies, is required.
  • Experience with relational database design and development in SQL Server, Snowflake, MySQL, PostgreSQL, or similar technologies, is required.
  • Experience building front-end visualizations using D3, chart.js, or similar, is a plus
  • Experience developing with cloud technologies from Azure, GCP, or AWS are a plus
  • Experience integrating systems and data using third-party APIs and services are a plus
  • Ability to work autonomously and as a team in a fast paced environment
  • High level of attention to detail with the ability to multi-task effectively
  • Comfortable working remotely when required and using Zoom, Teams, Slack, Trello, and other tools to communicate with all team members
  • High degree of professionalism and ability to maintain confidential information
  • Excellent organizational and time management skills
  • An understanding of baseball, common terms, and analytic measures, is a plus

At the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Sports Management, we go beyond embracing diversity. We’re committed to living by our values, strengthening our community, and creating a workplace where people genuinely feel like they belong.

Too often, job seekers don’t apply to positions because they don’t meet every qualification. If you love this role and are great at what you do, we encourage you to apply. Your unique skills and experiences might just be what we’ve been looking for.

Prospective employees will receive consideration without discrimination based on race, religious creed, color, sex, age, national origin, handicap, disability, military/veteran status, ancestry, sexual orientation, gender identity/expression or protected genetic information.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.


Analyst, Baseball Analytics

Location: Boston, MA, United States
Status: Full-Time / On-Site

DEPARTEMENT OVERVIEW:
Baseball Analytics supports the decision-making processes throughout Baseball Operations, including Player Valuation, Player Development, Major League Strategic Information, and Sports Science. Core responsibilities include predictive modeling, long-term research, report creation, and delivering the output of one’s work in a clear and digestible manner.

POSITION OVERVIEW:
The Boston Red Sox are seeking an Analyst for the team’s Baseball Analytics department. The role will support all areas of Baseball Operations while working closely with Director of Baseball Analytics, and our team of analysts.

This is an opportunity to work in a fast-paced, intellectually curious environment and to impact player personnel and strategic decision making.

RESPONSIBILITIES

  • Statistical modeling and quantitative analysis of a variety of data sources, for the purpose of player evaluation, strategic decision-making, decision analysis, etc.
  • Effectively present analyses through the use of written reports and data visualization to disseminate insights to members of the Baseball Operations leadership.
  • Maintain working expertise of leading-edge analytics, including publicly available research and novel statistical approaches, in order to recommend new or emerging techniques, technologies, models, and algorithms.
  • Other projects and related duties as directed by the Director, Baseball Analytics, and other members of Baseball Operations leadership.

CHARACTERISTICS/QUALIFICATIONS

  • Bachelor’s degree in an analytical field such as statistics, predictive analytics, data science, engineering, applied math, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, computer vision, or operations research.
  • Masters, PhD, or equivalent experience in one of the aforementioned fields preferred.
  • Advanced understanding of statistical methods or machine learning techniques.
  • Proficiency with modern database technologies including SQL.
  • Demonstrated experience with programming languages (e.g., R or Python).
  • Demonstrated ability to communicate technical ideas to non-technical audiences using data visualization.

At the Boston Red Sox and Fenway Sports Management, we go beyond embracing diversity. We’re committed to living by our values, strengthening our community, and creating a workplace where people genuinely feel like they belong.

Too often, job seekers don’t apply to positions because they don’t meet every qualification. If you love this role and are great at what you do, we encourage you to apply. Your unique skills and experiences might just be what we’ve been looking for.

Prospective employees will receive consideration without discrimination based on race, religious creed, color, sex, age, national origin, handicap, disability, military/veteran status, ancestry, sexual orientation, gender identity/expression or protected genetic information.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Boston Red Sox.


Effectively Wild Episode 2130: The Incomparably Comparable Catchers

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Cubs signing Cody Bellinger, Scott Boras’s offseason, and what Bryce Harper’s walk year could portend for Juan Soto’s. Then (33:27) Ben and Meg talk to Ben Kramer and Robert Toner of the Anchorage Sports Association about the Fur Rendezvous Festival snowshoe softball tournament and the finer points of playing softball in several feet of Alaskan snow. Finally (1:00:16), Ben talks to former teammates, rivals, and big league backup-catching journeymen Ryan Lavarnway and Tim Federowicz about their uncannily parallel playing careers and the evolution and future of catching.

Audio intro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial 1: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio interstitial 2: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Jaffe on Bellinger
Link to over/under draft results
Link to Nightengale on Boras
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to quotes about Bellinger
Link to Boras study
Link to Boras on EW
Link to Soto play
Link to Ben on Harper
Link to Anchorage Sports Association
Link to Fur Rendezvous wiki
Link to snowshoe softball rules
Link to snowshoe baseball article
Link to clone post
Link to Lavarnway Stat Blast
Link to Federowicz highlight
Link to Lavarnway highlight
Link to Federowicz book
Link to Lavarnway book
Link to Lavarnway podcast
Link to Tanner Swanson on EW
Link to Maness interview

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com