1. Cleveland Guardians Pick: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State
There has been a lot of buzz today about Wetherholt going here and, as I wrote in my first mock, he is the guy to cut an under-slot deal with if you’re going to do it with anyone because his other homes are later than the other candidates. I also have Wetherholt first on my board and would be fine just taking him here on talent. The rumors smell almost too strong today, as if they’re a last ditch effort to drive Bazzana’s price down before taking him. I’m staying disciplined and leaving Bazzana here, but it’s purely on intuition. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Diego Padres. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
Josh Rojas has turned himself into a plus defender. My colleague Ben Clemens chronicled that advancement last month, citing the Mariners infielder’s improved ability to go to his left as a primary reason for his markedly-better metrics. Exactly what type of adjustments have allowed the 30-year-old third baseman to turn the proverbial corner with his glove? I happened to be in Cleveland when Seattle began a road series against the Guardians on the day Ben’s article ran, so was able to get the answer right from the horse’s mouth.
“It was a matter of adjusting what works best for me reacting to balls left and right,” Rojas told me. “It has to do with my preset. Not getting down too early, not getting down too late. Picking up contact points. Another thing that helps is knowing how the ball usually comes off guys’ bats when certain pitchers are throwing. There is constant communication between me, the pitching coaches, and Bone [infield coach Perry Hill] on what the plan is for the series.”
The preset is what I was most interested in, so I asked the erstwhile Arizona Diamondback — Rojas became a Mariner at last July’s trade deadline — if he could elaborate. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh talks to Sam Miller of Pebble Hunting about the increase in IL stints at the All-Star break and Sam’s obsession with the evolving strategy of first-and-third situations. Then (41:29) Ben talks to Iowa state representative and Sioux City Explorers pitcher J.D. Scholten about his incredible baseball comeback at age 44, his baseball background, balancing baseball and politics, and his efforts to end MLB blackouts. Finally (1:20:14), Ben and The Athletic’s Evan Drellich talk to former NBC Sports and The Baseball Network president Ken Schanzer about the 30th anniversary of TBN, the first U.S. TV network owned by a pro sports league.
In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing mediocre production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.
When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it.
For this series, I’ll go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams that are above .500 or have Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%. That definition covers 20 teams, down from 22 last year. I’ll include the rest-of-season projections from our Depth Charts, and while I may mention potential trade targets, I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions than I am the problems, because hey, human nature. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. As MLB pauses for the All-Star break, I thought I’d pause for one of my own. Just like the league, I’d like to recognize the stars of my own personal baseball bubble. There’s a lot of overlap between the guys who populate Five Things most frequently and the best players in the game, but it’s not a complete overlap. You generally know what you’re getting with this column: some fun, fluky plays and players. Today, you’re just getting an aggregated version of that: the most fun I had in the first half of the year. And no, if you’re wondering, there are no Didn’t Likes this week, c’mon. As always, thanks to Zach Lowe for the idea for this format, which is just as exciting (to me) in baseball as it is in basketball. Read the rest of this entry »
The Texas Rangers came into the season with every intention of competing for another World Series championship. While the team had a fairly low-key winter, the ZiPS projection system thought it would be legitimately competitive in the AL West, though not necessarily one of baseball’s top teams. Instead, with less than half the season’s slate of games remaining, Texas sits uncomfortably below .500 with the playoff math looking increasingly daunting.
When the season began, my understanding was the Rangers expected to struggle at times during the first half, especially in the rotation, and they were OK with that as long as they didn’t fall too far behind the other AL West contenders, the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners. The organization was comfortable letting Jordan Montgomery walk in free agency because it felt the team had enough punch in the lineup to remain in the division race long enough for at least some of its injured pitchers to get healthy and reinforce the roster, which would be as good as acquiring a starter in a deadline trade.
For about a month, this scenario seemed to be playing out. The Astros limped miserably out of the gate, and the Mariners didn’t do much better. The Rangers spent most of April leading the AL West, but they didn’t build enough of a cushion. That came back to bite them when Seattle caught fire and Houston turned its season around. Simultaneously, Texas went in the other direction. Since May 1, the Rangers offense has put up a 92 wRC+, and that’s with the benefit of Corey Seager mashing after his early slump (.286/.367/.563 in that span) and Wyatt Langford hitting way better since coming off the IL in late May (.285/.339/.464). With the 17th-ranked ERA and 24th-ranked FIP since the start of May, the pitching staff hasn’t exactly made up for the offensive shortfall.
As of Thursday morning, ZiPS has the Rangers with a 10% chance to make the playoffs, far short of their projected 56% odds coming into the season. The projections still see the AL West as a race, but mostly between the Astros and Mariners, with Texas assuming the role of the third-place underdog.
ZiPS Projected Standings – AL West (7/11)
Team
W
L
GB
Pct
Div%
WC%
Playoff%
WS Win%
Seattle Mariners
85
77
—
.525
54.7%
10.1%
64.8%
3.5%
Houston Astros
84
78
1
.519
38.6%
11.3%
49.9%
2.9%
Texas Rangers
78
84
7
.481
6.4%
3.6%
10.0%
0.4%
Los Angeles Angels
70
92
15
.432
0.2%
0.1%
0.3%
0.0%
Oakland A’s
61
101
24
.377
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Of course, 10% isn’t zero, but the Rangers certainly have their work cut out for them. ZiPS currently assumes that, on average, the Rangers will be a .500 team the rest of the season. Let’s make a different assumption, that ZiPS is very wrong, and on average, they will be a .530 team from here on out. That still only boosts their playoff probability to 17.8%. Simply playing better is no longer enough, and there is unlikely to be any kind of reasonable deadline addition that would help them flip the script.
At the same time, Texas is still positioned well for a run in 2025, so there’s no need to blow the whole team up. Looking at just the main contributors under team control, ZiPS generally sees brighter days ahead next season.
ZiPS projects this group of players to win six or seven more games in 2025 than they’re projected to this season. (The win total for 2024 is a combination of the team’s season-to-date and rest-of season projections.) That’s an impressive number in most circumstances, but even more so for a rather old team; the offense is slightly older than league average and the pitching staff is the oldest in the majors. This group already has a good case for contention in 2025.
So if this year’s a longshot and 2025 looks better, what’s the winning argument for not retooling with a focus toward improving the roster for next season? That’s not rhetorical; I don’t have a good one (and feel free to make one in the comments that my cold-stricken brain couldn’t conjure). Again, the Rangers won the World Series last fall, and having that ring already earned ought to give the team some room to maneuver without angering the fanbase. Now, the Rangers won’t be able to snag prospects on the level of Jackson Holliday or James Wood for the players they’d be willing to trade, but in swaps for their players on expiring contracts — Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, David Robertson, Andrew Heaney, José Leclerc, Kirby Yates, and Michael Lorenzen — I would think they could at least get some talent that could help them in the future, even if you assume Scherzer sticks to his stated preference that he won’t waive his no-trade clause.
Dropping out of a race when you’re the defending champ is a tough thing to do psychologically. But the Rangers are in a bad place right now, and by throwing in the towel, they could improve their chances to contend for another title in 2025.
Konnor Griffin is the middle child of a Division III college softball coach. His parents’ names both start with K, as do both of his brothers’.
“If my mom’s trying to get a hold of me, she’ll probably say my other two brothers’ names first and then get to mine,” he said. “It’s kind of confusing, but everybody in my family has K as a first initial. It’s different, but it makes us unique.”
Griffin has a broad smile and an equally broad Mississippi accent, and from the neck down he’s pure muscle. He’s just preposterously big: 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, though he’d have no trouble convincing me he was being cheated another inch and 20 or 30 pounds. At his size, there’s the potential for plus-plus power. He can also run — he stole more than 80 bases in his final high school season — and hit the mid-90s throwing off a mound.
He’s 18 years old and just graduated high school. He says he can play shortstop at the next level, but can he cook and do laundry? Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fourth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
While “15 hits, 11 extra-base hits, six home runs, six walks and one stolen base in an eight-game span” is about as arbitrary and specific as a baseball feat gets, it’s nonetheless extremely impressive that Brenton Doyle finds himself in a group with five Hall of Famers.
Brenton Doyle is the sixth player to record at least 15 hits, 11 extra-base hits, six home runs, six walks and one stolen base in an eight-game span.
The other five are Larry Walker, Reggie Jackson, Willie Mays, Lou Gehrig and Babe Ruth. pic.twitter.com/ZMGG6I6z1d
— Rockies Club Information (@RockiesClubInfo) July 10, 2024
Doyle proved useful last season as a rookie, but only on one side of the ball. His brilliant center field defense (19 DRS, 15 OAA) was almost completely undercut by his awful 43 wRC+, which limited his value to 0.5 WAR.
But some mechanical adjustments geared at increasing his swing efficiency and cutting down on its moving parts have worked wonders in his sophomore season. His wRC+ has climbed all the way up to an above-average 112, and he’s already popped 13 homers after hitting just 10 in 2023. Additionally, because he is getting on base more — his on-base percentage has jumped from .250 last year to .346 — he is swiping more bags, too. He ranks ninth in the majors with 20 steals, and he’s just two shy of his stolen base total from last year.
In Doyle, the Rockies have a potential all-around star; he’s 26th in WAR among all hitters and third among primary center fielders, after Aaron Judge and Jarren Duran. That’s encouraging for Colorado, and his breakout presents a few options for the organization, chief among them: Should the Rockies build around Doyle or use him as a trade chip?
The Rockies are well on their way to a sixth straight losing season, and their playoff odds have hit 0.0%, so they are clearly in a position to sell before the July 30 trade deadline. That said, if history has any indication on how Colorado will approach this year’s deadline, the organization won’t blow up the whole squad to embark on a complete rebuild. That means players on expiring contracts, such as catching tandem Elias Díaz and Jacob Stallings, and lefty reliever Jalen Beeks could all be wearing new uniforms come August, as could players with another year before free agency, like starting pitchers Cal Quantrill and Austin Gomber.
Otherwise, though, the Rockies are likely to stay the course with the guys under club control long term, such as Doyle. Sure, it might be prudent for them to get rid of anyone of value and start over, but that’s just not how they operate. Some of the most notable examples of this include Troy Tulowitzki’s bitter end in Colorado and the organization’s underwhelming return for Nolan Arenado when he essentially forced the team to trade him. (Gomber is the only player from that trade still on the Rockies’ 40-man roster.)
Then again, maybe the Rockies shouldn’t cut ties with their guys just yet, especially not young, affordable players like Doyle (pre-arbitration, under club control through 2029), shortstop Ezequiel Tovar, who before the season signed a very team-friendly extension (seven years, $63.5 million), and third baseman Ryan McMahon, who has three years and $44 million left on his contract after this year. You don’t have to squint too hard to see a world in which the Rockies build around this trio and find a way to contend while they’re on the roster for fairly cheap.
Think of it this way: Kris Bryant’s disastrous contract finally ends after the 2028 season, and long-term deals with pitchers Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela, and Germán Márquez all will have expired by then as well. Additionally, Colorado has some more talented youngsters coming up through the pipeline, among them are pitcher Chase Dollander, second baseman Adael Amador, and whichever player the team selects with the third overall pick in Sunday’s draft. The Rockies could have a solid core over the second half of this decade, especially when you consider that owner Dick Monfort is not opposed to spending money in free agency, though he doesn’t always (read: usually) spend wisely.
That’s not to say teams wouldn’t love to have Doyle if he were made available or if they could get into Monfort or GM Bill Schmidt’s ear with a huge offer, and Doyle could absolutely return players of intrigue and impact to join Colorado’s pipeline. I asked our Ben Clemens, whose Trade Value series will come out later this month, what he thinks of Doyle; while the center fielder won’t make the top 50, he’ll be included as an honorable mention, implying at least some value. That actually bodes well for the Rockies if they were interested in trading him; his value wouldn’t be too high that other teams would balk at Colorado’s asking price, but he’s also good enough that he’d net a decent return package. It would make a lot of sense for the Phillies or another contending club that needs a solid everyday center fielder to see if they can make a match without having to give up too much.
But would it really worth it for the Rockies to trade Doyle? I came into researching this piece thinking that the answer would be “yes, of course, because he’s a good player and they’re a bad team!” But I have now convinced myself otherwise. The prospects Colorado would get for Doyle would come with six years of club control, and Doyle himself has five. Even in a deal for multiple prospects, one extra year of control isn’t enough to trade away a player who has already reached the majors and had success there. It’s pretty risky to gamble that even one of the prospects in the return package would be as impactful on the field in the future as Doyle has been this season.
Another important thing to consider, Doyle’s all-around breakout has spanned just half a season. His lack of track record surely creates a disconnect in how teams currently value him. If the Rockies doubt their ability to contend while Doyle is on their roster, and therefore are willing to trade him, they might be better off holding on to him for another year or two so he can prove that his performance this season isn’t a fluke. It’s possible that he could regress between now and then, but as I mentioned in the previous paragraph, the return Colorado would likely get for him this summer wouldn’t be all that valuable to the organization.
Whatever the Rockies decide to do with Doyle, he is going to be an important part of their future — even if he never again gets to enjoy the company of that same quintet of Hall of Famers.
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