Pitchers mostly don’t throw sweepers to opposite-handed batters. Starters especially don’t throw sweepers to opposite-handed batters. To put a number on it, 227 starters threw 250 or more pitches to opposite-handed hitters in 2023. Only 18 of that group chose sweepers even 10% of the time. Everyone knows the math: It’s the kind of pitch that simply doesn’t work when opponents get a clean look at it.

Want further proof? When pitchers have deigned to throw this suboptimal pitch, they’ve gotten punished for it. Per Baseball Savant, starters threw 4,734 oppo sweepers and accumulated 43.6 runs of negative value relative to average for their troubles. In other words, it’s generally a poor option. It’s not quite “break glass in case of emergency,” but it’s not far off. Starters rely on changeups, splitters, vertical breaking balls, or cutters to get by; anything to avoid throwing sweepers.

Okay, now that I gave you that setup, here’s the deal: It’s not universally true. Two Cy Young contenders and a top prospect have bucked the trend, throwing sweepers with relative abandon and getting away with it. What gives? Let’s look at each in turn. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s unlikely recovery in the contracts over/under draft, the Cubs signing Shota Imanaga, the trailblazing Rachel Balkovec moving from the dugout to the Marlins’ front office, and (18:37) whether the new horror film Night Swim is a baseball movie. Then (35:53) they talk to Oakland A’s All-Star Brent Rooker about breakfast foods, a potential new nickname, Night Swim, embracing advanced stats, player perceptions of luck, looking at his exit velo instead of his batted balls, whether he had help in homering off of Shohei Ohtani, underrated teammates, his breakouts in college and the majors, shedding the “Quadruple-A” label, DH penalties, being funny and informative on Twitter, fans complaining about losing bets, self-deprecating athletes, unusual meals, recalling pitch sequences, crossword puzzles, kids’ movies, and more.

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to over/under draft results
Link to MLBTR on Imanaga
Link to Baumann on Imanaga
Link to Longenhagen on Imanaga
Link to FG FA Top 50
Link to Ben on festival posters
Link to MLB.com on Balkovec
Link to article on Goodrum
Link to story on female ump
Link to Baseball: The Movie
Link to Surrey on Night Swim
Link to Polygon on Night Swim
Link to Night Swim Reddit post
Link to May’s insurance video
Link to Night Swim trailer
Link to Rooker’s Twitter
Link to Rooker’s breakfast thread
Link to Rooker breakfast interview
Link to Skalka menu
Link to khachapuri wiki
Link to “Country Breakfast” story
Link to Rooker and Zach Bryan
Link to homer off of Ohtani
Link to Renfroe assist comment
Link to DH penalty research
Link to Defector on 2020 debuts
Link to “random at-bats” tweet
Link to the random at-bat
Link to Rooker’s single
Link to favorite metrics tweet
Link to sweepers tweet 1
Link to sweepers tweet 2
Link to velo vs. location tweet
Link to dad tweet
Link to parlay-complaint tweet
Link to thread on data
Link to TTO% leaderboard
Link to May on Fisher
Link to Gauci hiring story
Link to Gauci EW episode
Link to vertical baseball details
Link to Interstellar clip

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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

For a seven-season period from 2010–16, nobody in baseball hit more home runs than José Bautista. The Blue Jays slugger led the American League in dingers in back-to-back seasons, with 54 in 2010 and 43 a year later, and with those soaring totals began a streak of six straight All-Star selections. Remarkably that run didn’t begin until Bautista was in his age-29 season, after he spent most of the first six years of his major league career (2004–09) barely hanging on to a roster spot while passing through the hands of five different teams. He turned the page on that difficult stretch of his career thanks to a swing change, one that prefigured the launch angle revolution that would come into vogue a few year later. With it, “Joey Bats” helped drive the Blue Jays back to relevance, an effort capped by one of the most memorable postseason home runs of the era.

José Antonio Bautista was born on October 19, 1980 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. His father, Americo Bautista, was an agricultural engineer who ran a poultry farm while his mother, Sandra Bautista, was an accountant and financial officer. Both had graduate degrees, and so theirs was a middle-class family that could afford to send José and his younger brother Luis to a private Catholic school. A good student, José excelled at math and science, and took extra classes to learn English beginning when he was eight years old. In the evenings, he played baseball with friends, and though undersized — he was nicknamed “The Rat” because he was small and had big ears — he excelled. Read the rest of this entry »

With one game to win and the world championship on the line, Japan manager Hideki Kuriyama called on left-hander Shōta Imanaga to start the decisive game of the World Baseball Classic. Availability and pitch count obviously limited Kuriyama’s options, but still, it’s quite an honor, considering Japan’s pitching staff also included Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and wunderkind Roki Sasaki.

The Cubs must have been impressed, because on Monday night Bob Nightengale reported that Chicago had reached an agreement with the two-time NPB All-Star. Imanaga, who had previously been linked with the Giants, will make at least $30 million over two years, with options and incentives that could bring the total value of the deal to $80 million over a longer (but still as-yet-unspecified) term. Jon Heyman called the deal “complicated.”

However much Imanaga’s contract will end up confounding the bookkeepers, it won’t be official until he passes a physical. That must be completed before Imanaga’s posting window expires Thursday afternoon. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2009 MLB draft was notable for numerous reasons, not the least of which was Mike Trout lasting until the 25th overall pick, where the Los Angeles Angels snagged him in one of the biggest steals in draft history. The Arizona Diamondbacks missed out on a pair of opportunities to take the future Hall of Famer — they picked back-to-back at 16 and 17 — and misfired on a few of their higher-round selections as well. Which isn’t to say they had a bad draft — anything but. Not only did a dozen of the players the D-backs drafted and signed go on to reach the big leagues, one of them was arguably as big of a steal as Trout. In the eighth round, with the 246th overall pick, they took Paul Goldschmidt out of Texas State University.

Tom Allison was the lead architect of Arizona’s 2009 draft. Serving as the club’s amateur scouting director under general manager Josh Byrnes, he not only oversaw the Goldschmidt pick, but also the selections of AJ Pollock, Chase Anderson, and Matt Davidson. There were disappointments — taking Bobby Borchering at 16 didn’t work out the way Arizona hoped — but that goes with the territory. The amateur draft is an inexact art, and a mix of hits and misses is inevitable, which is something a longtime scout like Allison knows all too well. Now a special assignment scout with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Allison addressed that very subject when looking back on 2009.

———

David Laurila: To the extent that a draft can be predictable, did things more or less go as you expected, or were there a lot of curveballs? Your club obviously had a number of extra picks early on.

Tom Allison: “First, it’s always great looking back at drafts, especially ones that had so many of these different outcomes. But that’s a great question. With those extra picks, we had the attention of the agents and advisors. They knew that, ‘OK, the Diamondbacks are interested and we have an opportunity to get them in there.’ That presented itself a lot of times with accessibility, which is really impactful. We had pre-draft workouts. We were in a different timeframe than we are now — it was a non-Combine time — so having a pre-draft workout was a big thing. Read the rest of this entry »

Every time I look up this offseason, I see a string of trades. The Braves seemingly made 65 roster moves to upgrade one position. The Mariners sent away a good chunk of their 2023 roster to save money and bulk up their outfield. The Rays are Rays’ing as hard as ever. Truly, it feels like a golden age for offseason deals.

All told, 130 players have changed teams via trade this offseason, per RosterResource. The quality is all over the map, from former aces like Chris Sale and Cy Young winners like Robbie Ray to minor leaguers you’ve never heard of. Juan Soto aside, it hasn’t been much of a season for blockbusters, at least in my estimation, but the sheer volume feels notable.

This being FanGraphs, though, I didn’t want to leave it at that. Sure, it feels like more teams than ever are engaging in red paperclip chains to make marginal upgrades, but the Rays also existed in prior offseasons, and Jerry Dipoto didn’t get his reputation for wheeling and dealing yesterday. Heck, A.J. Preller has been quiet this winter, and he often turns the hot stove incandescent in the winter. Maybe I’m just a victim of my own poor estimation. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

The Brewers won 92 games in 2023, enough to coast to a division title with nine games to spare, though it didn’t really have much to do with their offense. After a respectable 2022 season, the team’s wRC+ dropped to 92, ahead of just six teams (four of which won fewer than 62 games). In a season that saw an upswing in baseball’s offensive environment, the Brewers only slugged .385, their worst showing in 30 years.

That’s not to say there weren’t bright spots, but of the four players who put up a wRC+ of at least 100 in a minimum of 100 plate appearances, two (Carlos Santana and Mark Canha) are no longer on the team. Of the two who still call Milwaukee home, William Contreras is the best bet to maintain his 2023 production, though one-year framing numbers did a lot of heavy lifting. Meanwhile, Christian Yelich had a nice little bounce back, but he’s still a 32-year-old coming off two-and-a-half far less impressive seasons. ZiPS is grumpier than Steamer with respect to Yelich, but even Steamer has him falling short of 3 WAR, and that’s in a scenario where he has nearly perfect health. Read the rest of this entry »

Victor Scott II has received a lot of attention lately, and for good reason. The 22-year-old outfielder swiped 94 bases this past season between High- and Double-A, then added 18 more representing the St. Louis Cardinals in the Arizona Fall League. Moreover, his left-handed stroke produced a .303/.369/.425 slash line over 618 plate appearances against Midwest League and Texas League pitching. Flying below the radar when he was taken in the fifth round of the 2022 draft out of West Virginia University, the speedster is now widely viewed as one of the most promising players in the Cardinals’ pipeline.

The focus the Atlanta native has received lately has understandably centered on his plus-plus wheels and his improved hit tool. Neither of those subjects was broached when I spoke to Scott over the phone in early December — this a few weeks before he graduated from WVU with a degree in Interdisciplinary Studies. Instead, we discussed his burgeoning music career. Scott is not only on the fast track to the big leagues, he is also an accomplished rapper.

———

David Laurila: You’ve recorded a number of rap songs. Tell me about that.

Victor Scott II: “It’s something I can’t really do in-season, and I couldn’t really do at school, because I didn’t have a studio. Here at home, I can get in there with Quinn Carter — one of my best friends from back in the day — to kind of hang out and make music. It’s therapeutic. It allows me to get whatever off my mind, and also to be imaginative. It’s a cool little outlet, man. It’s great.” Read the rest of this entry »

2:03

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and happy new year! Welcome to my first chat of 2024 and my first one in… a little while. Between my move and Hall of Fame season it’s been tough to carve out time for these, so my apologies. On that subject, today I’ve got a piece celebrating the 20th anniversary of the introduction of JAWS https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chewing-on-jaws-at-20/. Hopefully tomorrow I’ll have my profile of José Bautista to add to the one-and-done roster. I did Matt Holliday on Friday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2024-hall-of-fame-ballot-matt…

2:04	Jay Jaffe: I’m most proud of serving as the creative director for the 2002, 2003, and 2004 editions of the World Almanac for Kids. I got to design the covers and oversaw the whole project on the design side. https://www.ebay.com/itm/302336851464?chn=ps&_trkparms=ispr%3D1&amdata…

2:05	Jay Jaffe: In 2002 I got to put Venus Williams on the cover, while in 2003 it was Sammy Sosa (oops, but keep in mind these were decided a year in advance).

2:05	Jay Jaffe: I also got to do the covers of the 2002 and 2003 World Almanacs

2:06	Jay Jaffe: and some cool science textbooks and some dreadful mathbooks.

Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

This set of batters probably looks familiar because, well, apart from the Luis Arraez trade to the Marlins, this is pretty much the same collection of hitters the Twins have had available the last several years. Edouard Julien isn’t the exact same type of player as Arraez, but he more or less fulfills Arraez’s role of “interesting offensive talent who the Twins can play at second base, but would prefer not to.”

Can Byron Buxton stay healthy? Just sticking him at DH isn’t a satisfactory answer — one of the reasons a healthy Buxton is so valuable is because he has played a transcendent center field when he’s been able to. Playing DH, he’s basically just Jorge Soler, which has value, but not that star-level sizzle. Read the rest of this entry »