Lucas Giolito is one of the more intriguing free-agent pitchers currently on the market. Still just 29 years old, the veteran right-hander is coming off of a sub-par season — a 4.88 ERA and a 5.27 FIP for three different clubs — but his overall resume is that of a solid big league starter who reliably takes the mound every five days. His 947 innings pitched over the last six seasons are eighth-most in MLB, and his 167 starts are tied for fifth-most. All told, he has a 4.43 ERA, a 4.44 FIP, and a 25.3% strikeout rate since debuting with the Nationals in 2016. His best season was 2019, when he went 14–9 with a 3.41 ERA, a 3.43 FIP, a 32.3% strikeout rate, and 5.2 WAR with the White Sox.

With his pending free agency in mind, I approached Giolito in early September — a day after he’d made his first of six appearances with the Guardians — to talk about where he’s at in his career.

———

David Laurila: I first interviewed you in 2017. How would you describe your evolution as a pitcher since that time?

Lucas Giolito: “Unfortunately, it hasn’t been going in a good direction recently. As for how I’ve evolved, I definitely use the slider more. The longer you’ve been in the league, the more guys get used to you, and sometimes the changeup is working great and sometimes it isn’t. Up until 2021, I was pretty much a two-pitch guy. I had a slider for show, but it was mainly fastball-changeup. That was effective for me, whereas now guys will sometimes sit on the changeup. Having that slider to go in the other direction, I can show a different look, especially to righties.”

Laurila: Do you feel that your changeup is as good now as it was in your best seasons? I’m thinking primarily about movement profile and speed differential.

Giolito: “That’s interesting. I think it’s pretty much the same. The thing is, in ’19 and ’20, when I used it a lot and it was really effective, I didn’t actually pay much attention to the metrics on it. So it’s really hard to say. I do know that the velocity is pretty much the same.” Read the rest of this entry »

Jim Leyland is headed to Cooperstown. The 78-year-old former manager of the Pirates, Marlins, Rockies, and Tigers was the only candidate elected by the 2024 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee for Managers/Executives/Umpires, which met on Sunday at the Winter Meetings in Nashville to consider eight figures who made their greatest impact from 1980 to the present. In his first appearance on an Era Committee ballot, the 78-year-old former skipper received 15 of 16 votes (93.8%) from a panel of Hall of Famers, executives and media members/historians.

In a 22-year managerial career with Pittsburgh (1986–96), Florida (197–98), Colorado (1999) and Detroit (2006–13), Leyland led his teams to the playoffs eight times, winning a World Series with the Marlins in 1997, a pair of pennants with the Tigers in 2006 and ’12, and six division titles. He ranks 18th in career regular season wins (1,769) but was only 41 games above .500 for his career, with a .506 winning percentage; his record included some lean years with teams that had been torn down and weren’t likely to compete. When given the resources to do so by ownership, he was quite successful, guiding seven teams to at least 90 wins. He was a three-time Manager of the Year, winning the NL award with the Pirates in 1990 and ’92 and with the Tigers in 2006. He’s one of 10 managers to win pennants in both leagues and just the second to lead two teams to a World Series in his first year on the job; Bucky Harris was first, with the 1924 Senators and ’47 Yankees (h/t @AlmostCoop).

Jim Leyland is among 10 managers to win both the AL and NL pennant. pic.twitter.com/9ZciBDdIYQ

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) December 4, 2023

Leyland was his era’s archetype of an old-school manager. Prematurely gray, he went from looking ancient at the start of his career to actually being ancient, at least in baseball terms. Known for sneaking cigarettes between innings, he cut an indelible image in the dugout and in front of a microphone, where his dry wit made him a media favorite. Despite a gruff exterior and a knack for getting his money’s worth from umpires when the situation merited it, he earned a reputation as a players’ manager rather than an old-school hard-ass. Read the rest of this entry »

The other night, I had pie for dinner and watched a Hallmark Christmas movie (HCM). It was a solid hang, and I thoroughly enjoyed myself. On a night when my brain felt like mashed potatoes and my body refused to accept that it was 7:00 p.m. and not 11:00, I warmly welcomed the sugar rush, in both the literal (pie) and figurative (HCM) sense.

Despite the pleasantness of the evening, I do not intend to adopt an all-dessert diet and swear off the movie theater. I might make it three days before becoming so starved for substance that my mind and body start acting out a horror movie in rebellion. While sugary sweets and romcoms provide enjoyment, they lack staying power.

Which naturally brings me to Adley Rutschman and the Orioles. Rutschman currently stars in an HCM, written and produced by the Orioles’ front office and ownership group, in which he attempts to woo O’s fans and save Christmas (aka their postseason aspirations). Adley receives support from a promising ensemble cast, but their inexperience shows in their performance, particularly when asked to stretch their ability for an intense scene during the movie’s climax. Meanwhile, the story’s B-plot (starting pitching) felt a little thin, like they might need to resort to a cringy musical number to fill time, and the C-plot (bullpen) started out as a bright spot to relieve tension but threw a surprise twist in the mix that went unresolved. Read the rest of this entry »

The St. Louis Cardinals were one of baseball’s most disappointing teams in 2023. Favored to win the NL Central, they instead finished with just 71 wins and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Moreover, the losing record was wholly unfamiliar territory. Since John Mozeliak was appointed GM prior to the 2008 season (his title is now President of Baseball Operations), the Cardinals had had nothing but winning records under his watch. They reached the postseason in 10 of those seasons and twice advanced to the World Series, capturing the franchise’s 11th modern-era title in 2011.

To say that St. Louis has had sustained success under Mozeliak would be stating the obvious. Ditto that “The Cardinals Way” — the catchphrase champions the club’s adherence to fundamentals and its player development acumen — has paid dividends on a consistent basis.

What does it mean when sustained success suddenly hits a roadblock? In the Cardinals’ current case, does it represent an anomaly? Was 2023 simply a blip, or is there a need for Mozeliak’s team to change its processes in any way? I asked that question of the executive during last month’s GM meetings.

“I think it would be somewhat foolish to just approach this past year as, ‘Oh, odds have it that you’re going to lose, so it happened,’” replied Mozeliak. “You can learn from some things that happened last year. I hope everybody who is involved in this is having that reflection moment and trying to understand what we could have done differently, what we should have done differently, and what we will do differently going forward.”

Asked if he could share specifics, Mozeliak said that while some have been identified, he preferred not to call any of them out, lest he “make anybody feel bad.” He did say that he was willing to call himself out. “Adding more pitching prior going into camp, would have, in hindsight, made more sense” was the mea culpa he chose to share. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and top-tier Patreon supporter Kevin Peskuric banter about and quantify the difference between the receptions to an @MLB tweet about a Shohei Ohtani cat encounter and an @Yankees tweet about Henry Kissinger. Then (18:48) they talk about Kevin’s background as a baseball fan and EW listener, answer listener emails (32:13) about whether facing only bad hitters could get a pitcher to the Hall of Fame, activating a five-second pitch clock once per game, a team-wide Freaky Friday-esque body swap, and describing players’ bodies in scouting reports, and Stat Blast (1:07:39) about players with more WAR than HR, interdivision records and the AL Central, and the most pitches thrown in a game before the first whiff, followed by a radio-play-style Future Blast (1:33:31) from 2093.

Audio intro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Twitter ratio explanation
Link to Ohtani cat tweet
Link to Yankees Kissinger tweet
Link to Biden’s Kissinger statement
Link to Rolling Stone Kissinger obit
Link to “Nobody:” meme
Link to info on view counts
Link to info on Twain misquotation
Link to Jeff on opponent quality
Link to BP team opponent quality
Link to EW Episode 2089
Link to hurry-up offense wiki
Link to Trout hypotheticals wiki
Link to Ben on Reds scouting reports
Link to Ben on Scout School
Link to scouting glossary
Link to Rob on MLB handsomeness
Link to Rob on MiLB handsomeness
Link to halo effect wiki
Link to Colon’s nickname info
Link to Stathead on WAR>HR
Link to Rob on division records
Link to Rob’s interdivision data
Link to Rob on Twitter
Link to 1998 Baseball Weekly article
Link to 1998 Ocker article
Link to 1998 AP article
Link to 1998 game’s play log
Link to 2000 game’s play log
Link to 2007 game’s play log
Link to latest-first-whiff data
Link to Ryan Nelson on Twitter
Link to 1985 Mantle/Radatz article
Link to Mantle/Radatz H2H record
Link to Sam on Musial/Labine
Link to listener emails database
Link to Future Blast text
Link to Rick Wilber’s site
Link to Alan Smale’s site
Link to 1932 WS clip
Link to The Naked Gun clip
Link to O’Neill cylinder wiki
Link to Ami Li on Twitter
Link to Chris Hanel on Twitter
Link to Shane McKeon on Twitter
Link to Dan Szymborski on Twitter
Link to Secret Santa sign-up sheet

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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Joe Mauer was one of baseball’s greatest hometown-boy-makes-good stories. A former No. 1 overall pick out of Cretin-Derham Hall High School in St. Paul, Minnesota, in 2001, he spent the entirety of his 15-year career with the Twins. Despite a listed height of 6-foot-5, he excelled at catching and was also an elite left-handed hitter, with a quick, compact stroke and impeccable judgment of the strike zone. Between his outstanding two-way performances, his handsome good looks, and his wholesome public persona, he was an ideal face-of-the-franchise player. He played a central role in helping the Twins, who were targeted for contraction just five months after he was drafted, to four postseason appearances. Along the way he made six All-Star teams and won three Gold Gloves and three batting titles apiece, not to mention the 2009 AL MVP award.

Alas, the Twins were swept in each of their playoff series, and for all of Mauer’s accomplishments, his career was punctuated by injuries, starting with a meniscus tear in the second game of his rookie season. Post-concussion problems forced him to hang up the tools of ignorance and shift to first base; his power, which had only intermittently shown up even in the best of times, with one season of more than 13 homers, dissipated upon moving to the team’s beautiful new ballpark; and some segment of the fan base blamed his eight-year, $184 million contract extension for the team’s apparent financial limitations. Ultimately, he chose to retire at age 35 due to continued concussion-related complications.

All of that is proof that Mauer’s story wasn’t a fairy tale, but even so, it was a great career. So great, in fact, that Mauer ranks seventh in JAWS among catchers despite its limitations, and that’s without accounting for his above-average pitch framing, a factor that will become increasingly important to grapple with in upcoming Hall of Fame debates. Even without a bonus for his upstanding character (the original intent of the infamous clause in the voting rules), he’s eminently worthy of a spot in the Hall of Fame. Whether he’ll get there on the first try is another question, however, particularly amid a crowded field and an electorate that has not only become much less generous lately but also has rarely treated even the most obvious honorees among catchers with appropriate respect. Read the rest of this entry »

Over the past few days, industry news-breakers (beginning with Ken Rosenthal) began to report that the Milwaukee Brewers and top prospect Jackson Chourio are nearing a contract extension. Chourio, who turns 20 in March, has been among the very best prospects in baseball for the better part of the past 18 months. He turned 19 just before the start of the 2023 season and slashed .280/.336/.467 in 122 games at Double-A Biloxi before the Brewers gave him a six-game shot of espresso at Triple-A Nashville in late-September. His power, speed and, more recently, his improvements on defense give him rare upside as a 30/30 threat and plus center field defender.

The complete details of the contract aren’t known, but Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel first suggested that it would be something like an eight-year, $80 million deal. Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reported that Chourio and the Brewers agreed to a structure and length of eight years, with two club options that would bring the total length to 10 years if exercised. Earlier today, Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweeted that the guaranteed amount will total $82 million, accounting for a $2 million buyout of the Brewers’ club options, while McCalvy reported that the club options plus incentives could push the total value into the $140 million range. If we assume that Chourio will make the Opening Day roster, this deal will cover what would have otherwise been his six years of pre-free agency service, two of his free agent years, and potentially two more. Even if the Brewers pick up the two team options, Chourio will hit free agency again before he turns 30. It’s also worth noting that the big money, team-option portion of Chourio’s contract doesn’t kick in until after Christian Yelich’s monster contract has expired. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Houston Astros.

Batters

With the big five on offense (Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Chas McCormick when not being randomly benched), the Astros have a pretty high floor in terms of runs scored. ZiPS projects a gentle decline phase for Altuve; Tucker and Alvarez are smack-dab in their prime years. There are some dark clouds on the horizon, as Bregman and Altuve are free agents after the season, but that’s a problem for Future Dana Brown to worry about.

Jeremy Peña came down a bit from his rookie season, as expected, but he’s still a solidly above-average shortstop overall. Yainer Diaz should be fine with the bulk of the time behind the plate. Jake Meyers seems to get a bad rap, but I’m wondering if part of the reason he feels so unexciting is just how good the rest of the lineup is. The weak spot will likely be first base, even with ZiPS projecting somewhat of a bounceback year from José Abreu, who was awful last season before his power started appearing again in August. Being 37 for the 2024 season limits just how much of a comeback to expect from him. Read the rest of this entry »

Justice Bigbie has gone from a 19th-round draft pick to one of the most promising prospects in the Detroit Tigers system in just two years time. Taken 555th overall in 2021 out of Western Carolina University, the 6-foot-3, 215-pound corner outfielder is coming off his second full professional season, during which he slashed .343/.405/.537 with 19 home runs in 485 plate appearances across High-A West Michigan, Double-A Erie, and Triple-A Toledo. The 24-year-old’s 157 wRC+ was tied for seventh highest among all minor leaguers with at least 400 PA.

Bigbie talked hitting, with a primary focus on high-velocity training, at the conclusion of the Arizona Fall League season, which saw him log a .749 OPS with the Salt River Rafters.

———

David Laurila: In some respects, you came out of nowhere in putting up big numbers this year. On the other hand, your overall track record (which includes a .350/.426/.539 slash line in four collegiate seasons) is that of someone who has always hit. In your mind, did you actually take a huge step forward, or did you mostly just do what you’ve always done?

Justice Bigbie: “I mean, I don’t want to say that I continued to do what I always do. I try to continue to improve, continue to get better each day, and I feel like I’ve done that since getting my first taste of pro ball in 2021. I’m continuously making tweaks to my swing and improving what I can improve on. I think that’s contributed to the success I had this past year.” Read the rest of this entry »

Before Ben Clemens puts together the official Top 50 Free Agents list, he posts a rough draft in Slack and asks for everyone’s opinion. I, personally, didn’t give him much in the way of feedback, because he’s a floating brain in a jar and I’m the guy who’s mostly interested in baseball as a conduit for making stupid jokes in headlines. As long as Shohei Ohtani is no. 1, I’m good. Beyond that, I trust Ben. He knows more than I do anyway.

With that said, I do want to share what little feedback I did offer, because I’ve been thinking about this for weeks: “I have no idea where Mitch Garver should go. I balked at him being as high as no. 18 and then immediately started talking myself into putting him closer to 10.” (Garver was 18th on the first list I saw; he migrated up a spot by the time it was published.)

So let’s do it. Let’s talk ourselves into Mitch Garver as a top-10 free agent. Read the rest of this entry »