The Pirates beat the Phillies 2-1 on Sunday, and near as I can tell everyone was pissed about it. The Phillies, a would-be World Series contender, had just gotten swept by a team they’d been hoping to do some damage against, and dropped to 1-9 in their previous 10 games. The Pirates, for their part, had just gotten one over (three over, actually) on their intrastate rival, but Paul Skenes didn’t get the win.

The biggest, scariest pitcher in the league had gone 7 2/3 innings, allowing only one unearned run, but had left the game while it was tied in the top of the eighth. That left the NL Cy Young frontrunner with an ERA of 1.88 in 91 innings, but a record of just 4-6. Is it important for Skenes to get the win? Not exactly. But the incongruity between record and performance was just another reminder of how little support this disappointing team is giving the generational talent that had fallen into its lap.

Skenes is the class of the Pirates rotation, but he’s not the only talented pitcher the Bucs have. Even with Jared Jones and Johan Oviedo in the shop getting their elbows worked on, Mitch Keller is having a solid season. Keller is top 25 in the league in innings and WAR, and despite some indifferent strikeout numbers, he’s kept the ball in the yard and scratched out a 4.13 ERA — that’s a 100 ERA- on the dot — with a 3.27 FIP. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about good news and bad news for Ben’s recent Meet a Major Leaguer subject Christian Montes De Oca, Craig Kimbrel’s short-lived return to Atlanta, the promotions of Roman Anthony and Jacob Misiorowski and a proposal for automatic call-ups, Denzel Clarke’s incredible catch and extreme stat line (and the nature of quantifying defense), Jhonkensy Noel’s offensive outage, two uncommon occurrences involving baseballs in strange places, Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s mic’ed-up error, Clayton Kershaw’s payback against the Cardinals, and (1:10:26) “Hometown Hero,” a baseball-themed episode of Poker Face.

Audio intro: Garrett Krohn, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Alex Glossman and Ali Breneman, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to MaML episode
Link to Montes De Oca debut
Link to MLBTR on Montes De Oca
Link to The Athletic on Kimbrel
Link to BP on Kimbrel
Link to MLBTR on Kimbrel
Link to Orioles/Braves episode
Link to O’s/Braves since 5/6
Link to Anthony homer
Link to Misiorowski pitch
Link to Clarke catch
Link to Arneson posts
Link to A’s sprint speed leaderboard
Link to FRV leaderboard
Link to Clarke on-pace projection
Link to Sam on Clarke
Link to 2015 Trout robbery
Link to GMJ robbery
Link to White robbery
Link to JBJ robbery
Link to Pillar robbery
Link to Schanuel bat training
Link to worst wRC+ ranking
Link to Weathers story
Link to Weathers clip
Link to fan-thrown-ball story
Link to fan-thrown-ball clip
Link to Jazz error
Link to Ben on in-game interviews
Link to Kershaw story
Link to Kershaw clip
Link to Kershaw velo
Link to Panthers/Oilers fights
Link to Bing Bong explainer
Link to Hang Up and Listen
Link to recent reinstatements
Link to “Hometown Hero” wiki
Link to “Hometown Hero” IMDb

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Four years ago, LaMonte Wade Jr. seemingly came out of nowhere — he was acquired in a minor trade following a couple cups of coffee in Minnesota — to help the Giants win 107 games and their first division title since 2012. His stream of clutch hits in a close NL West race earned him the nickname “Late Night LaMonte,” and while he couldn’t quite replicate that timeliness in subsequent seasons, he continued to do solid work in a platoon capacity for the Giants, at least until this year. Last week, with the team in the midst of a 2-6 slide during which they scored just 13 runs, president of baseball operations Buster Posey designated Wade for assignment as part of a shakeup aimed at upgrading the offense.

The 31-year-old Wade, who played with Posey on that 2021 squad, was dealt to the Angels for a player to be named later or cash on Sunday, with the Giants sending some unspecified amount of money towards the remainder of his $5 million salary. He was replaced on the roster by Dominic Smith, who had opted out of a minor league contract with the Yankees earlier in the week. Backup catcher Sam Huff was also DFA’d, while infielder Christian Koss was optioned to Triple-A Sacramento. Catcher Andrew Knizner and outfielder Daniel Johnson were both called up from Sacramento to replace them; each had signed minor league contracts with the Giants in May.

[Update: Shortly after this article was published on Tuesday, the Giants placed Matt Chapman on the 10-day injured list with a right hand injury — suffered while diving back to first base on a pickoff — and recalled Koss. Chapman was later diagnosed with sprained ligaments in the middle three fingers of his hand; he hopes to return before the All-Star break.]

With the three new players in the lineup, the Giants proceeded to reel off five straight victories against the Padres (salvaging a split of their four-game series) and Braves (sweeping the weekend series) to lift their record to 38-28, good enough to slide into second place in the NL West, 1 1/2 games behind the Dodgers. Not that the offense really awoke from its slumber. While the team did score 21 runs in those five games, breaking its streak of consecutive games scoring four or fewer runs at 16, its longest since 1965 (h/t Andrew Baggarly), the Giants hit just .200/.256/.327 (64 wRC+) over that stretch, worse than their .223/.304/.306 (77 wRC+) during the eight-game skid. The new guys, in case you were wondering, went 7-for-36 with two doubles and a walk. For the moment, correlation is good enough. Read the rest of this entry »

Brady House is a high-ceiling slugger knocking on the door of the big leagues. Drafted 11th overall by the Washington Nationals in 2021 out of Winder-Barrow High School in Winder, Georgia, the 22-year-old third baseman is slashing .299/.352/.521 with a 128 wRC+ over 256 plate appearances with the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings. Befitting his sturdy 6-foot-4 frame and plus power from the right side, House has hammered 14 doubles and 12 home runs.

His approach might best be described as old school. Asked about his M.O. at the plate, the promising youngster told me his primary goal is simply to hit the ball hard and get on base. And he definitely hits the ball hard. His max exit velocity this season is 112.4 mph, which ranks in the 90th percentile at the Triple-A level. As for his ability to leave the yard, House doesn’t hunt for homers so much as he buys into the process.

“I hit the most home runs when I go up there not trying to hit a home run,” he said. “If I go up there just trying to get a base hit, it just ends up accidentally happening.”

It’s not by accident that House hits home runs in all directions. He called using the entire field an important part of his approach, and the data back up the words. His spray chart shows three homers ripped to right, four blasted to center, and five launched to left. His overall pull rate is actually a career-high 49.4%, but that’s not necessarily by design. While an adjustment is part of the equation, how he’s being attacked is playing a bigger role in his pulling more pitches. Read the rest of this entry »

The wait is over. On Monday, the Red Sox called up Roman Anthony, the consensus top prospect in baseball. He batted fifth and played right field against the Rays, going 0-for-4 with a walk, an RBI, and a costly error. After spending the last few seasons absolutely torching the minors, it turns out Anthony just needed to smash a 497-foot grand slam – the longest ball hit in either the majors or the minors this season – in order to earn his spot in Boston.

What really brought Anthony to Boston was a left oblique strain to Wilyer Abreu, whom the Red Sox placed on the IL when they announced Anthony’s promotion (though the 497-footer certainly couldn’t have hurt). The team designated Ryan Noda for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

After all the anticipation, the promotion happened at the very last minute; there were no tear-jerker undercover boss videos. Although Abreu showed discomfort during Friday’s game against the Yankees, the team wasn’t sure until Monday afternoon that he’d actually need to go on the IL. The Triple-A Worcester Red Sox were on the bus about to head to their next series in the Lehigh Valley when the big club called and asked them to wait. Everybody piled off the bus, but the team’s gear was already en route to Pennsylvania. So Anthony drove up the Mass Pike after getting the news and played the game in borrowed cleats. Luckily, teammate Marcelo Mayer already had one of Anthony’s bats.

The Red Sox could certainly use a savior right about now. At 32-36, they’re in fourth place in the East, nine games behind the Yankees, and 4 1/2 games out of the final Wild Card spot. We currently have them with a 15.7% chance of making the playoffs. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball suffers from the same fundamental contradiction as every spectator sport. It is an entertainment product, a work of narrative nonfiction, if you like. A compelling narrative must adhere to certain norms and strictures; even when expectations are subverted, the audience responds best when those expectations are built up first.

The players and managers who act out the on-field drama, and the front office personnel who hire and direct them, aren’t in the business of storytelling. They’re in the business of problem-solving. That problem: How to put runners on base and, once there, to advance them home. And to prevent one’s opponent from doing the same.

The more we know about this problem, the greater detail in which it’s studied, the greater the risk that a solution will emerge. There might be more than one way to skin a proverbial cat, but if one method emerges as the most efficient, everyone will adopt it. And what’s the fun in that? Read the rest of this entry »

You know Shohei and Clayton and Freddie and Mookie. Teo and Will Smith and Blake Snell and Roki. But do you recall the least heralded Dodger of all? Well, that’s not exactly fair, and I didn’t even name all the famous Dodgers, but here’s the point: I’m writing about a Dodger who isn’t one of the guys who seem to steal every headline.

Meet Andy Pages, the Dodgers’ everyday center fielder. A year ago, Pages was just another hopeful, the latest in a line of plus-bat, where-can-he-play-defense-though options cycling through the corners in Chavez Ravine. Pages’ prospect reports paint a clear picture: a swing built for lift, plenty of swing-and-miss, and sneaky athleticism that exploded after Pages returned from shoulder surgery. In 116 games of big league play, he took over center field (mostly out of necessity — he looked stretched there at times) and posted a league average batting line, though without the home run power that evaluators expected from him.

If you could freeze time there and give the Dodgers the option of having exactly that Pages for the next five years, I think they would have begrudgingly accepted it. Teams as full of stars as Los Angeles’ current squad need role players to fill the cracks in the roster, and outfielders who can handle center and hit at least okay are always in high demand. That isn’t to say that there weren’t encouraging signs – Pages’ athleticism was better than advertised and he showed plus bat speed – but a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and he was already an excellent cog in the machine even without fully unlocking his power.

Flash-forward to this season. Pages started the year playing center and batting ninth. That’s the lineup spot for a complementary piece, a defensive specialist or fourth outfielder. He started slow, with a 70 wRC+ over his first month of play. The Dodgers didn’t have better options defensively, and in fact, Pages looked downright smooth out there, both to my eyes and to defensive model grades. When your team posts a collective 126 wRC+ for the months of March and April (for the months of May and June so far, too — this team is pretty good!), you can live with a below-average hitter playing a tough defensive position, so the Dodgers kept running Pages out there, slow start and all. And that brings us to April 22, when Pages got hot and didn’t stop. Read the rest of this entry »

As June gets underway, the American League playoff picture is as muddy as ever — 12 teams are within 4 1/2 games of a playoff berth right now. Meanwhile, in the National League, there’s a pretty clear line between the haves and the have-nots, but even if the playoff picture isn’t as crowded, the races should provide plenty of drama this summer.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

…

The Tigers and Cubs battled through a competitive and entertaining series last weekend, with Detroit taking two of the three games. It’s far too early to call this a World Series preview, but it’s certainly a possibility with the way these two teams are playing. The Tigers went 4-3 in their week of games against the two Chicago clubs, and their bullpen blew leads in all three of their losses. For now, this seems like more of a blip than a true concern — the Detroit bullpen ranks sixth in the majors with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.29 WPA, even if the peripherals (3.81 FIP, 3.71 SIERA) aren’t quite as strong — but it’s something to monitor as the season progresses.

The Mets split their NLCS rematch against the Dodgers in Los Angeles last week, with three of the four games being decided by one run, and then went to Colorado and swept the hapless Rockies. Pete Alonso was a one-man wrecking crew; he blasted five home runs and now has 17 on the season. New York has gone 12-3 since falling to three games out of first place with a loss on May 23, and as the Phillies continue to struggle, the Mets begin this week ahead 4 1/2 games in the NL East.

In their first matchup against the Red Sox this season, the Yankees lost two of the three games and allowed 27 runs in the series. Earlier in the week, New York placed closer Luke Weaver on the injured list with a hamstring strain, but the team did get back dynamic infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.. After missing over a month with an oblique injury, Chisholm went 8-for-21 with two home runs and three stolen bases.

It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Dodgers. They’re 10-12 over their last 22 games and neither their offense nor their pitching can find much consistency right now. Los Angeles collected 19 total hits in its first two games against the Cardinals last weekend but somehow managed to score just a single run, going 1-for-25 with runners in scoring position. The Dodgers salvaged the series with seven runs on Sunday in a 7-3 win, but their bats are still having a relatively rough go of things since their 18-run outburst against the Yankees the previous Saturday. The concerns about their lineup pale in comparison to the injury woes of their pitching staff, as Tony Gonsolin became the latest pitcher to go down with elbow discomfort. The good news is the Dodgers activated relievers Michael Kopech and Kirby Yates off the IL last weekend and spun an under-the-radar trade for former All-Star closer Alexis Díaz, whom the Reds optioned to Triple-A after a disastrous April. While the Dodgers are letting Díaz work things out in the minors before recalling him, the returns of Kopech and Yates should help to bolster the bullpen; the starting rotation, though, is still spread dangerously thin. Things won’t get any easier for the Dodgers this week, when they face the Padres and Giants for the first time this season. Both teams are just a game behind Los Angeles in the NL West standings.

The Astros have gotten hot at exactly the right moment. Their surge has coincided with a Mariners slide; Houston overtook Seattle in the AL West standings in late May and padded the lead last week. The Astros have gone 11-5 over their last 16 games, a stretch that began with taking three of four from Seattle, and are now 2 1/2 games up in the division. Jeremy Peña continues to lead the offense during this hot streak; he collected 10 hits last week and had a 13-game hit streak snapped on Sunday.

The Rays and Blue Jays continued their rise up the standings last week; Tampa Bay swept the Rangers and won two out of three against the Marlins, while Toronto took both of its series against the Phillies and Twins. In 16 games since May 23, Rays third baseman Junior Caminero is slashing .349/.388/.825 with seven home runs and a 242 wRC+. A resurgent George Springer, who smacked a game-winning home run on Saturday, has been the most consistent run producer in the Blue Jays lineup.

The Giants tallied two more walk-off victories last week, bringing their season total to eight. All seven games of their games last week were decided by one run, and they haven’t played a game that was settled by more than three runs since May 23. San Francisco is now 22-11 in home games this season, one of the best home records in baseball. After a 5-2 homestand, the Giants return to the road with a 38-28 overall record, which puts them just a game behind the first-place Dodgers in the NL West.

The Phillies are phree-phalling right now, with just one win in their last 10 games. That lone win came in their series opener against the Blue Jays last Tuesday, and then over the weekend they were swept by the last-place Pirates. The Philadelphia offense went especially cold, managing to score just one run in four of its last five games. To make matters worse, Bryce Harper was placed on the IL with a wrist injury over the weekend, though it sounds like it might be a minor issue.

Injuries have become an issue for the Twins again, only this time, it’s in their starting rotation. Both Pablo López and Zebby Matthews were placed on the IL last week with shoulder injuries; López is expected to miss at least two months, while it’s unclear as of this writing how long Matthews might be out. Thankfully, Royce Lewis is healthy and snapped an 0-for-28 stretch with a hit on Tuesday, and then notched six more after that.

The three teams in this tier all feature flawed lineups with no more than one or two superstars who are tasked with putting the rest of the offense on their backs. The Guardians couldn’t handle the Yankees and Astros last week, though José Ramírez continued to rake. He carries a 34-game on-base streak into Monday’s series opener against the Reds, and he has at least one hit in all but two of those games. Overall, he’s slashing .333/.392/.556 with 12 home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 163 wRC+. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. is catching fire after a so-so month of May; though the Royals went just 3-3 last week, Witt brought his season wRC+ up to 126 after going 9-for-25 with two homers. Kansas City also called up top prospect Jac Caglianone last week to bolster what has been one of the worst offenses in baseball. Seattle had a rough week, getting swept by the Orioles and losing two of three against the Angels, but Cal Raleigh bashed three more home runs, extending his major league-leading total to 26.

It was the worst-case scenario for Corbin Burnes and the Diamondbacks. First, the ace left his June 1 start with an elbow injury, and then on Friday, Arizona announced he would undergo Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the rest of the season and most likely all of 2026 as well. It’s a deflating blow to a club that’s been struggling to keep up in the extremely competitive NL West. The rotation has had its fair share of troubles this year, and Burnes’ injury is the biggest one yet.

In a wide open AL playoff picture, it’s not too late for the Rangers to get back into the race, especially if their offense starts to click. To that end, after an abysmal start to the season, Marcus Semien is 15-for-29 with three home runs and a 324 wRC+ over his last nine games. Let’s see if his teammates follow his lead and start mashing this week, when Texas visits Minnesota for three games before returning home to face the White Sox over the weekend.

However, it probably is too late for the Orioles to recover from their disappointing first two months, but at least they’re playing much better baseball recently. They lost their weekend series to the Athletics, but before that, they had gone 9-2 over their previous 11 games. They activated Colton Cowser off the IL last Monday and should be getting Jordan Westburg back from his hamstring injury any day now.

It might be time to admit that it’s just not the Braves’ year. They were swept by the Diamondbacks and the Giants last week, and their seven-game losing streak has dropped them to 14 games back in the NL East and 9.5 games back in the NL Wild Card standings. On Thursday, they blew a six-run against Arizona in the top of the ninth inning, and then lost back-to-back walk-offs against San Francisco on Friday and Saturday. More concerning has to be the ongoing struggles of Spencer Strider; he lost his two starts last week, both his ERA and FIP are up over five, and his Stuff+ is down about 20 points from his last healthy season in 2023.

The Athletics snapped out of a month-long tailspin with a series win over the Orioles last weekend. The A’s peaked on May 5 when they walked off Seattle and pushed their record to 20-16. After that, they lost 24 of their next 27 games before finally beating the Twins 14-3 on Thursday, exactly one month after the high point of their season. During that 3-24 stretch, they allowed 7.8 runs per game, by far the worst mark in the majors.

Not only did the Rockies finally win a series last week, they secured a three-game sweep of the Marlins! It was their first series win since September of last year and the first time they had won more than two games in a row this season. That winning streak was quickly snapped, when the Mets swept Colorado at home over the weekend. The Rockies are a truly terrible team, no matter how hard Davy Andrews tries to make them look good, but for the sake of all the loyal fans who somehow still show up to their games, hopefully last week’s series won’t be the only one they win in 2025.

Read the rest of this entry »

I humbly request that you watch the following home run three times. During your initial pass, I merely ask that you permit yourself to marvel at the power of Pete Alonso. Exclaim, should you feel so moved. This level of ferocity certainly merits stiffer punctuation than a period can provide.

The second time you take it in, allow yourself to focus on the reactions. Catcher Dalton Rushing and baserunner Brandon Nimmo offer an illuminating interplay. Nimmo cranes his head toward the heavens and prepares to tag up on the play in spite of the fact that the ball goes on to land some 900 feet past the left field wall. Rushing recognizes at once that the ball has attained escape velocity, and he reacts by lifting his hands with enough suddenness and precision to send you searching the web for the phrase “rude Italian hand gestures.” A couple behind the plate provides a master class in the Long O sound:

SHE: Whoa.
HE: [EXPLETIVE DELETED] Nooo.
SHE: Ohhhh!

On your third pass, please focus exclusively on pitcher Ryan Loutos as he crumbles into dust. The young pitcher’s delivery is a study in contrasts. He’s all elbows and knees as he drops and drives, but he finishes with such rotational force that his follow-through twists him all the way around toward first base, torso first, arms and right leg swinging forward in neat arcs to catch up. He’s linear then rotational, angled then curved, herky-jerky then smooth. Read the rest of this entry »