He may not have upper-echelon career totals, but boy was Michael Brantley an absolute baller. A five-time All-Star, Brantley also won a Silver Slugger and finished third in American League MVP voting in 2014, a year that saw him finish second in the AL in WAR behind only Mike Trout, the MVP winner. After a very successful 15-year career, the sweet swinging lefty outfielder has decided to hang up his cleats. It’s an unsurprising move for Brantley, who had battled shoulder injuries for much of the last three seasons and would have been entering his age-37 season.

Brantley was a unique player. Over the course of his career (2009-2023), the league-wide strikeout rate increased from 18.0% to 22.7%. But while the league was whiffing more and more, Brantley bucked the trend. During his 10-year tenure in Cleveland, he struck out 10.7% of the time; in the five years he spent in Houston, that mark was exactly the same. Indeed, his strikeout rate with the Astros was over 40% better than the league average rate (22.8%) during that period. Of the hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances from 2019 to 2023, 21 had a strikeout rate below 14%. Only two had a higher wRC+ than Brantley: Alex Bregman (137) and José Ramírez (132).

His skill set was timeless, headlined by his elite contact ability. His wRC+ was actually higher in his 30s (124) than it was in his 20s (112). And his future looked bright – ZiPS projected him for a .290/.354/.416 line and a 114 OPS+ in the upcoming season had he played. As Timothy Jackson of Baseball Prospectus put it, Brantley was “unique among players with outlier skills.” And so, with his time in the majors coming to a close, I wanted to look back at Brantley’s career progression. More specifically, I wanted to examine how his consistently elite contact skills allowed him to maintain his performance despite myriad injuries. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognosgtications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

When I look at Cincinnati’s offense, I’m incredibly confused. By “confused” I don’t mean that the offense is lousy, just that its construction is utterly bizarre in a lot of areas. For example, even if you write Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz in permanent marker at second base and shortstop, respectively, you still have a team that’s overflowing with plausible third base candidates: Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to start. Given this hot corner glut, the Reds signed… one of the best third basemen available, in the form of Jeimer Candelario, but not, mind you, to be the starting third baseman. And while he’ll see time there, it’s extremely likely he’s going to get a ton of time at first base and designated hitter. One of the main reasons to like Candelario is that he hits like he does while playing a very competent third base. The more time he sees at 1B/DH, the more it’s the equivalent of buying a sports car to use as a step ladder to change the light bulb in your garage.

What’s more, many of the players who’ll be shifting down the defensive spectrum doesn’t really have much in the way of synergy. Candelario, Steer, and Encarnacion-Strand are all essentially right-handed hitters in profile (Candelario has the splits of a right-handed batter), so it’s not like one of those sneaky Gabe Kapler platoons.

Given how much ownership has cried poor, I don’t want to discourage the Reds from spending, but if they’re going to grow payroll, why not spend to address actual team weaknesses? Spending more money and getting bang for your buck are not mutually exclusive propositions. When I expressed confusion on Twitter about the Reds earlier this offseason, I was assured by fans of the team that the roster would make more sense after all the trades they were certainly going to make. Well, those moves haven’t come.

But who knows? The Reds do have a lot of talent on the roster, even if their players are deployed in a rather odd way. McLain is terrific, and I think De La Cruz’s late-season drop-off removed the over-exuberance that he was going to be Fernando Tatis Jr.; he’s now about properly rated for what he is. Tyler Stephenson ought to have a better season than he did in 2023, and ZiPS projects the outfield to be adequate if healthy, though the computer can hardly be described as enthusiastic. ZiPS is kind of interested in Blake Dunn as someone who could eventually push Stuart Fairchild off the roster. As we’ve seen with them before, the Reds likely missed the window to get a good return for India, but he’s still probably a roughly league-average player and isn’t going to get any more valuable as a role player.

I’ll be generous and give the team the benefit of the doubt that there’s a plan to trade off some of the surplus talent here before it’s frittered away by time and attrition. But they’re running out of time to do it before the start of spring training.

Pitchers

ZiPS likes a lot of Cincinnati’s hitters, but it’s less enthusiastic about the pitching. That’s not so much a rotation problem, though several of the starters have worse projections than last year. It’s really odd that the Reds made a playoff run and it turned out that it have very little to do with breakouts from Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, or Nick Lodolo, all three of whom were some combination of mediocre and injured in 2023. ZiPS is a believer in Andrew Abbott in the sense that he’s a deserving part of the rotation, but its expectations are tempered a bit. Greene, Ashcraft, and Lodolo all have worse outlooks than they did at this time last year, though that can hardly be a surprise.

[One of the Greenes came out as Green, and this has been fixed -DS]

Unlike some of the other Cincy signings, I really like the Frankie Montas pickup. There’s a good chance that he doesn’t contribute anything at all in Cincinnati, but the upside, given his history, is really quite interesting. I wish the team signed players like this more often, ones who represent a real jackpot for the team if they hit, say, their 70th percentile projections and stay healthy. The computer likes Nick Martinez as a useful swingman.

ZiPS absolutely hates the bullpen, though in the end, it has the group projected for the same 2.3 WAR that Steamer does. ZiPS likes Alexis Díaz, Fernando Cruz, and Martinez when he’s used in relief, but is lukewarm everywhere else.

I think the Emilio Pagán signing was the worst bullpen addition any team has made in free agency so far this winter, but I was surprised that ZiPS likes Pagán even less. I see this as a good example of a team thinking that the season before is the same thing as a projection, and ignoring the red flags. Pagán was basically successful because he suddenly went from being a terrible home run pitcher to a great one. Home runs allowed is a terrible stat, so terrible in fact that it makes xFIP useful, when it really should not be. Pagán has a long history of allowing a lot of homers in pitcher-friendly environments and actually had the worst average exit velocity allowed in his career in 2023. He remained a fly ball pitcher, and now he goes to one of the worst environments in baseball for a pitcher who allows a lot of flies. This is like the anti-Dodgers signing. That’s not a guarantee that Pagán will be lousy — relievers are quite volatile — but I really don’t like the odds.

So what does this all add up to? If the projections are to believed, about a .500 team, just where the Reds finished last year. Given the team’s young talent, I wish this franchise was taking a more practical approach to actually improving the roster.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time.

Here are how the ZiPS percentiles worked out in 2023 for pitchers and hitters in in 2023.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2024 due to injury, and players who were released in 2023. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Belgian Death Metal Skiffle Band that only plays songs by Franz Schubert, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.33.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: And we are here!

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though I’m  not thinking much of Padres in 2024; that’s still a lot of performance to replace and they kinda needed pitching *now*

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think slower than usual. One thing is that there just aren’t many very good position players ou thtere

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Been really lite on stars

Read the rest of this entry »

Pitchers mostly don’t throw sweepers to opposite-handed batters. Starters especially don’t throw sweepers to opposite-handed batters. To put a number on it, 227 starters threw 250 or more pitches to opposite-handed hitters in 2023. Only 18 of that group chose sweepers even 10% of the time. Everyone knows the math: It’s the kind of pitch that simply doesn’t work when opponents get a clean look at it.

Want further proof? When pitchers have deigned to throw this suboptimal pitch, they’ve gotten punished for it. Per Baseball Savant, starters threw 4,734 oppo sweepers and accumulated 43.6 runs of negative value relative to average for their troubles. In other words, it’s generally a poor option. It’s not quite “break glass in case of emergency,” but it’s not far off. Starters rely on changeups, splitters, vertical breaking balls, or cutters to get by; anything to avoid throwing sweepers.

Okay, now that I gave you that setup, here’s the deal: It’s not universally true. Two Cy Young contenders and a top prospect have bucked the trend, throwing sweepers with relative abandon and getting away with it. What gives? Let’s look at each in turn. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s unlikely recovery in the contracts over/under draft, the Cubs signing Shota Imanaga, the trailblazing Rachel Balkovec moving from the dugout to the Marlins’ front office, and (18:37) whether the new horror film Night Swim is a baseball movie. Then (35:53) they talk to Oakland A’s All-Star Brent Rooker about breakfast foods, a potential new nickname, Night Swim, embracing advanced stats, player perceptions of luck, looking at his exit velo instead of his batted balls, whether he had help in homering off of Shohei Ohtani, underrated teammates, his breakouts in college and the majors, shedding the “Quadruple-A” label, DH penalties, being funny and informative on Twitter, fans complaining about losing bets, self-deprecating athletes, unusual meals, recalling pitch sequences, crossword puzzles, kids’ movies, and more.

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to over/under draft results
Link to MLBTR on Imanaga
Link to Baumann on Imanaga
Link to Longenhagen on Imanaga
Link to FG FA Top 50
Link to Ben on festival posters
Link to MLB.com on Balkovec
Link to article on Goodrum
Link to story on female ump
Link to Baseball: The Movie
Link to Surrey on Night Swim
Link to Polygon on Night Swim
Link to Night Swim Reddit post
Link to May’s insurance video
Link to Night Swim trailer
Link to Rooker’s Twitter
Link to Rooker’s breakfast thread
Link to Rooker breakfast interview
Link to Skalka menu
Link to khachapuri wiki
Link to “Country Breakfast” story
Link to Rooker and Zach Bryan
Link to homer off of Ohtani
Link to Renfroe assist comment
Link to DH penalty research
Link to Defector on 2020 debuts
Link to “random at-bats” tweet
Link to the random at-bat
Link to Rooker’s single
Link to favorite metrics tweet
Link to sweepers tweet 1
Link to sweepers tweet 2
Link to velo vs. location tweet
Link to dad tweet
Link to parlay-complaint tweet
Link to thread on data
Link to TTO% leaderboard
Link to May on Fisher
Link to Gauci hiring story
Link to Gauci EW episode
Link to vertical baseball details
Link to Interstellar clip

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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

For a seven-season period from 2010–16, nobody in baseball hit more home runs than José Bautista. The Blue Jays slugger led the American League in dingers in back-to-back seasons, with 54 in 2010 and 43 a year later, and with those soaring totals began a streak of six straight All-Star selections. Remarkably that run didn’t begin until Bautista was in his age-29 season, after he spent most of the first six years of his major league career (2004–09) barely hanging on to a roster spot while passing through the hands of five different teams. He turned the page on that difficult stretch of his career thanks to a swing change, one that prefigured the launch angle revolution that would come into vogue a few year later. With it, “Joey Bats” helped drive the Blue Jays back to relevance, an effort capped by one of the most memorable postseason home runs of the era.

José Antonio Bautista was born on October 19, 1980 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. His father, Americo Bautista, was an agricultural engineer who ran a poultry farm while his mother, Sandra Bautista, was an accountant and financial officer. Both had graduate degrees, and so theirs was a middle-class family that could afford to send José and his younger brother Luis to a private Catholic school. A good student, José excelled at math and science, and took extra classes to learn English beginning when he was eight years old. In the evenings, he played baseball with friends, and though undersized — he was nicknamed “The Rat” because he was small and had big ears — he excelled. Read the rest of this entry »

With one game to win and the world championship on the line, Japan manager Hideki Kuriyama called on left-hander Shōta Imanaga to start the decisive game of the World Baseball Classic. Availability and pitch count obviously limited Kuriyama’s options, but still, it’s quite an honor, considering Japan’s pitching staff also included Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and wunderkind Roki Sasaki.

The Cubs must have been impressed, because on Monday night Bob Nightengale reported that Chicago had reached an agreement with the two-time NPB All-Star. Imanaga, who had previously been linked with the Giants, will make at least $30 million over two years, with options and incentives that could bring the total value of the deal to $80 million over a longer (but still as-yet-unspecified) term. Jon Heyman called the deal “complicated.”

However much Imanaga’s contract will end up confounding the bookkeepers, it won’t be official until he passes a physical. That must be completed before Imanaga’s posting window expires Thursday afternoon. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2009 MLB draft was notable for numerous reasons, not the least of which was Mike Trout lasting until the 25th overall pick, where the Los Angeles Angels snagged him in one of the biggest steals in draft history. The Arizona Diamondbacks missed out on a pair of opportunities to take the future Hall of Famer — they picked back-to-back at 16 and 17 — and misfired on a few of their higher-round selections as well. Which isn’t to say they had a bad draft — anything but. Not only did a dozen of the players the D-backs drafted and signed go on to reach the big leagues, one of them was arguably as big of a steal as Trout. In the eighth round, with the 246th overall pick, they took Paul Goldschmidt out of Texas State University.

Tom Allison was the lead architect of Arizona’s 2009 draft. Serving as the club’s amateur scouting director under general manager Josh Byrnes, he not only oversaw the Goldschmidt pick, but also the selections of AJ Pollock, Chase Anderson, and Matt Davidson. There were disappointments — taking Bobby Borchering at 16 didn’t work out the way Arizona hoped — but that goes with the territory. The amateur draft is an inexact art, and a mix of hits and misses is inevitable, which is something a longtime scout like Allison knows all too well. Now a special assignment scout with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Allison addressed that very subject when looking back on 2009.

———

David Laurila: To the extent that a draft can be predictable, did things more or less go as you expected, or were there a lot of curveballs? Your club obviously had a number of extra picks early on.

Tom Allison: “First, it’s always great looking back at drafts, especially ones that had so many of these different outcomes. But that’s a great question. With those extra picks, we had the attention of the agents and advisors. They knew that, ‘OK, the Diamondbacks are interested and we have an opportunity to get them in there.’ That presented itself a lot of times with accessibility, which is really impactful. We had pre-draft workouts. We were in a different timeframe than we are now — it was a non-Combine time — so having a pre-draft workout was a big thing. Read the rest of this entry »

Every time I look up this offseason, I see a string of trades. The Braves seemingly made 65 roster moves to upgrade one position. The Mariners sent away a good chunk of their 2023 roster to save money and bulk up their outfield. The Rays are Rays’ing as hard as ever. Truly, it feels like a golden age for offseason deals.

All told, 130 players have changed teams via trade this offseason, per RosterResource. The quality is all over the map, from former aces like Chris Sale and Cy Young winners like Robbie Ray to minor leaguers you’ve never heard of. Juan Soto aside, it hasn’t been much of a season for blockbusters, at least in my estimation, but the sheer volume feels notable.

This being FanGraphs, though, I didn’t want to leave it at that. Sure, it feels like more teams than ever are engaging in red paperclip chains to make marginal upgrades, but the Rays also existed in prior offseasons, and Jerry Dipoto didn’t get his reputation for wheeling and dealing yesterday. Heck, A.J. Preller has been quiet this winter, and he often turns the hot stove incandescent in the winter. Maybe I’m just a victim of my own poor estimation. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

The Brewers won 92 games in 2023, enough to coast to a division title with nine games to spare, though it didn’t really have much to do with their offense. After a respectable 2022 season, the team’s wRC+ dropped to 92, ahead of just six teams (four of which won fewer than 62 games). In a season that saw an upswing in baseball’s offensive environment, the Brewers only slugged .385, their worst showing in 30 years.

That’s not to say there weren’t bright spots, but of the four players who put up a wRC+ of at least 100 in a minimum of 100 plate appearances, two (Carlos Santana and Mark Canha) are no longer on the team. Of the two who still call Milwaukee home, William Contreras is the best bet to maintain his 2023 production, though one-year framing numbers did a lot of heavy lifting. Meanwhile, Christian Yelich had a nice little bounce back, but he’s still a 32-year-old coming off two-and-a-half far less impressive seasons. ZiPS is grumpier than Steamer with respect to Yelich, but even Steamer has him falling short of 3 WAR, and that’s in a scenario where he has nearly perfect health. Read the rest of this entry »