For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Angels.

Batters

Zach Neto is really good. That is all. Let’s just move on with our lives.

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OK, before I get the “Dan.” message in our company Slack, I’ll regretfully talk more about the Angels. They weren’t the worst team in baseball in 2025, nor will they be in 2026, but I think they’ve become the least interesting team in baseball. At this point, they’re a bit like when you hear for the first time about some TV show on the Hallmark or Roku Channel starring someone you vaguely recall from 1998 and find out that not only the TV show exists, but that it’s been on for a decade and there are like 110 episodes. The White Sox and Rockies have won a lot fewer games than the Angels in recent years, but being terrible is, on some level, interesting. The Angels were a mediocre team with peak Mike Trout and peak Shohei Ohtani, so it’s perhaps not surprising that with Trout in steep decline, and Ohtani gone, they’re having trouble getting into contention.

ZiPS is as optimistic about Neto as Steamer is, and he’s likely the best player on the team now. Trout did finally have a full, healthy-adjacent season in 2025, but he did so mostly as a designated hitter, with the lowest wRC+ of his career (120). He turns 35 in August, and I am increasingly pessimistic about whether there are any vintage Trout seasons left in the tank

Elsewhere, ZiPS struggles to see upside. Catcher would be among the most plausible places to see some improved performance, but the Apostrophe Boyz, Logan O’Hoppe and Travis d’Arnaud, were both absolutely dreadful last year, and this projection already represents a pretty sizable bounce back. Nolan Schanuel makes good contact, but a first baseman that doesn’t hit for much power or maintain high batting averages is going to struggle to have much value.

The Angels have designated hitters playing both corners. One, Jorge Soler, looks very much like he’s approaching the end. The other, Jo Adell, erupted for 37 home runs, which was nice, but it was one of the lowest impact near-40-homer seasons in history because he didn’t do much else all that well. Vaughn Grissom and Christian Moore rank very highly in the projected WAR rankings for the Angels, but that is more a reflection of the quality of their teammates rather than an indication that they’re due for a breakout performance.

One player who does violate this theme is Nelson Rada. A lot will come down to just how well his defense plays in center field long term, and he has little power, but he did perform quite well in the high minors for a player still in his teens. ZiPS actually thinks he may very well be the team’s best option in center right now.

The Angels will be a below-average offense, but probably not the worst in the league.

Pitchers

The rotation is, at least according to ZiPS, a step up from the lineup, with the important caveat if healthy. Yusei Kikuchi, José Soriano, and Reid Detmers — who is the returning to the rotation in 2026 — are all acceptable starters, even if none remotely screams “ace.” Grayson Rodriguez was just the kind of pickup the Angels should be making, and still has all sorts of upside remaining. Some combination of Alek Manoah, Caden Dana, and Sam Aldegheri is likely fine for the last spot in the rotation. The problem is what happens if (read: when) injuries hit. George Klassen throws really hard, and his control might just be just good enough to allow him to have a career, but once you get past Klassen, you quickly get to a recent retiree (Kyle Hendricks), a guy with an ERA near seven in more than 100 innings (Jack Kochanowicz), and a pitcher I forgot still played baseball (Dakota Hudson). The starting five could be adequate, but there’s a massive amount of downside behind them.

The bullpen looks very ordinary, but there are some sources of upside: Robert Stephenson and Ben Joyce can both be quite effective, but they come with serious injury concerns. Drew Pomeranz was highly effective for the Cubs last season, but he also has a significant injury history that cannot be ignored. Kirby Yates is nearing 40 and wasn’t particularly good last year, but ZiPS legitimately likes Brock Burke. This all averages out to, well, an average bullpen, but with some good dice rolls, there’s a pretty decent ceiling here, more than anywhere else on the team. Alas, the bullpen rocking will be most relevant in the last week of July.

Right now, the Angels look like a 70- to 75-win team with a rather unimpressive ceiling. I’ve done enough projections to be well aware of the pitfalls of projecting the future, so the team spiking an 86-win season and sneaking a wild card spot isn’t out of the realm of possibility. It does seem out of the realm of likely, though I don’t think that’s an actual expression.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2026 due to injury, and players who were released in 2025. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Ambient Math-Rock Trip-Hop Yacht Metal band that only performs in abandoned malls, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.16.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on Bluesky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.

This offseason has been reasonably busy in terms of actual moves, but light on rumors. One of the few exceptions has involved the Marlins’ Edward Cabrera. The Yankees’ interest in the 27-year-old right-hander has been consistent throughout the winter, but it appears they’ve been beaten to the punch.

Cabrera is indeed on the move, but he’s bound for Chicago, not New York, as Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation reported late Wednesday morning. The Cubs get a hard-throwing starting pitcher, fresh off a 3.53 ERA in 137 2/3 innings, with three years of team control remaining. In order to entice the Marlins to part with Cabrera, Chicago gave up three position player prospects: Owen Caissie, shortstop Cristian Hernandez, and corner infielder Edgardo De Leon. The Yankees, Jon Heyman says, were “never close.” Read the rest of this entry »

On December 28, Sunday Notes led with a look at how seven of the nine position players projected to start for the Minnesota Twins this coming season were drafted by the club in either the first or second round. (The column also cited homegrown numbers for several other organizations.) Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey was quoted extensively within the piece, offering perspective on how the current roster came together.

Today we’ll hear from Twins GM Jeremy Zoll, as well as from Falvey, on a quartet of first- and second-round picks who have yet to reach Minnesota. One is a middle infielder, three are pitchers, and all rank among the team’s top prospects. I asked about each of them when the executives met with members of the media during the Winter Meetings.

———

“It was Kaelen’s first full season, and he had an awesome year,” Zoll said of 23-year-old shortstop Kaelen Culpepper, whom the Twins drafted 21st overall in 2024 out of Kansas State University. “He was between High-A and Double-A, and we couldn’t have asked for it go much better. We’re really pleased. He had the opportunity to go to the Futures Game.

“He’s primarily playing shortstop, but he’s also getting some early work at second base and third base, as well as a little bit of game exposure at both spots. We’ll continue to let that play out as we get through spring training and into the season. We’ll figure it out exactly in terms of placement and proximity. We always kind of let the player dictate that with his performance, but he’s put just about as much pressure on us [as anyone] in terms of us wanting to keep moving him, and keeping him challenged.” Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

By the time Shin-Soo Choo reached the majors with the Mariners in 2005, nine South Korea-born pitchers had followed in the wake of Chan Ho Park, who debuted with the Dodgers in 1994, but just one position player preceded him, namely Hee-Seop Choi. It took a few years and a lopsided trade before Choo’s major league career got off the ground, and he lost significant time to a variety of injuries, but over the course of his 16 seasons with Seattle, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Texas, he established himself as an on-base machine with considerable pop. He set a number of firsts, including becoming the first South Korean position player to make an All-Star team and now, the first such player to make a Hall of Fame ballot.

To these eyes, that latter distinction is a big deal. Most of the 12 newcomers on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot don’t have the numbers to merit election or even much debate. Their appearance on the ballot after spending at least 10 seasons in the majors with some distinction is its own reward, and with the deadline for voting now past, we’re in the part of the cycle where we can take the time to celebrate these players’ fine careers in their own right. A decade ago, I raised a bit of an international stink when Park — who spent 17 seasons in the majors (1994–2010), won 124 games (still the major league record for a player born in Asia, one ahead of former teammate Hideo Nomo), and became the first South Korea-born player to make an All-Star team — was left off. It felt like a needless snub. “Like Hideo Nomo, who blazed a trail for modern Japanese players to come to the majors, Park deserves the recognition that comes with a spot on the ballot,” I wrote for SI.com. I’ve made noise about other slights since then, and I think the situation has improved over time, so I’m particularly glad to see Choo here.

…

Shin-Soo Choo was born on July 13, 1982 in the Nam district of Busan, South Korea, a coastal city that is the country’s second-largest, behind Seoul. He’s the oldest son of father So-min Choo and mother Yu-jeon Park. He was born into a baseball family, as his mother’s brother, Jeong-Tae Park, starred as a second baseman for the KBO’s Lotte Giants from 1991–2004, winning five Gold Gloves (given to the best all-around player at each position, not just the best defender) and sealing the Giants’ 1992 championship by recording the final out in their Korean Series victory over the Binggrae Eagles. Read the rest of this entry »

I have a confession to make. I started this article with a conclusion in mind, only to find that that conclusion was spectacularly untrue. But then I pivoted, and found something else I think is quite interesting. Is it obvious, in retrospect? I kind of think so. But I had fun doing it and learned something in the process, so I decided to write about it anyway.

I had a theory that the average catcher age, along with the average age for all the hardest defensive positions, had plummeted over the past decade, with the average DH age increasing as a counterbalance. My theory was that the universal DH allowed teams to massively alter their behavior. National League teams that had been playing older sluggers in the field could shift them down the defensive spectrum, either directly to DH or by displacing other old players to DH via a chain reaction of moving to easier defensive spots.

It’s beautiful logic, with just one problem: It’s untrue. Here’s the average seasonal age (as of July 1 each year) of catchers, shortstops, and DHs since 2002, the first year we have positional splits that allowed me to run this analysis:

The data is pretty noisy, which makes sense to me. It’s not like teams are targeting a given age; they’re just making baseball decisions about cost, team control, and production. Average age is a downstream result of a lot of decisions that are made for other reasons. But in the aggregate, the pattern I hoped to see just wasn’t there:

In fact, DH has experienced the greatest decline in average age across all positions. That’s very much not what I expected. I do think that some of that is overstated. First base has had the smallest decline among positions, and I’d expect many of the displaced older hitters I mentioned in my hypothesis to end up there too. But if you average the age changes of first base and DH, they’re almost exactly the league average for position players. Clearly, the data do not support my claim. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Daniel Vogelbach becoming a Brewers hitting coach and coach-hiring trends, analyze and phact-check Tommy Pham’s pitch for “PhamGraphs,” react to the Kazuma Okamoto signing and the Blue Jays embracing their big-market potential (in contrast to the Giants), and take the temperature of the pretty tepid stove (phollowed by a phollow-up on Pham).

Audio intro: The Spaghettis, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Vogelbach news
Link to Brewers coaching staff
Link to last year’s Vogelbach hiring
Link to Vogelbach promo
Link to article on PhamGraphs
Link to negativity bias wiki
Link to team batting LI
Link to batter opp_DRA-
Link to team batter opp_DRA-
Link to lineup construction study
Link to DRA- explainer
Link to DRC+ explainer
Link to Canha’s BP player card
Link to Pham’s BP player card
Link to August Pham incident
Link to EW Episode 2363
Link to PH PA leaders
Link to Eric on Okamoto
Link to NPB HR since 2019
Link to MLBTR on Okamoto
Link to MLBTR on Takahashi
Link to FG payroll page
Link to FG post on Mahle
Link to team SP projections
Link to FG top 50 FA
Link to Ben on pennant complacency
Link to Harbaugh firing
Link to latest Hang Up and Listen
Link to Albies TikTok

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12:02

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of 2026! I’ll get this going momentarily (having a chat with a reporter about Hall of Fame stuff)

12:04

Jay Jaffe: OK, I’m back! Happy New Year to you all.

12:04

Jay Jaffe: Hope you had good holiday breaks. If you missed it, I published my Hall of Fame ballot explainer https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffes-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot

12:05

Jay Jaffe: and yesterday began the One-and-Done portion of the ballot with a profile of Hunter Pence https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot-hunt…

12:06

Jay Jaffe: I did include a couple of one-and-dones in the pre-holiday coverage, namely Alex Gordon and Edwin Encarnación, but I gave their careers longer treatments. Likewise for the next profile, Shin-Soo Choo.

12:06

Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the questions!

Read the rest of this entry »

Back in the fall, Daniel R. Epstein of Baseball Prospectus wrote a couple of articles about where hitters stand in the batter’s box. Statcast released batting stance information last year as part of the ongoing rollout of bat tracking information that started in 2024. Understandably, the location of a hitter’s center of mass got a bit overshadowed by the wealth of information about how their bat moves through space and finds its way to the ball (or not), but Dan did his part to drag it into the light. He found a relationship between contact rate and where the batter stands. Specifically, standing deeper in the box and standing closer to home plate are both associated with higher contact rates.

Both of those findings are intuitive enough. Standing deeper in the box gives you a longer reaction time. It’s no surprise that batters who take advantage of that extra information make more contact. It’s also easy to spot a potential selection bias: The players in the back of the box are likely back there because they’re the kind of contact-oriented players who want the extra reaction time.

I saw less of a physical reason for players who stand farther from home plate to make more contact, unless they stand so far from the plate that they have trouble reaching the outside corner, but (almost) nobody actually does that. It might take your bat head slightly longer to reach the outside part of the plate, but the ideal contact point for an outside pitch is deeper anyway, so I assumed the two would balance out and chalked the difference up to selection bias. Bigger players with longer arms naturally feel more comfortable farther away from home plate, and those bigger players tend to have more powerful swings, which tend to result in more whiffs. Causation isn’t correlation, and I wasn’t ready to go so far as to assume that standing farther away from home plate actually causes a batter to make less contact. Then I watched A League of Their Own again. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 22nd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

The Orioles hogged most of the AL East Disappointment space in 2025, but the Rays were similarly uninspiring. Rather than bouncing back from a down 2024, their first losing season in a pretty long stretch, they dropped down a few more wins in 2025, and never felt like they were relevant, either as dominating contender or incompetent doormat. While the Rays are historically great when it comes to squeezing as much out of every penny, it can be difficult for them to turn things around quickly because they won’t bridge gaps with big spending. So now they enter 2026 with their usual m.o. of trying to accumulate enough incremental advantages to sneakily win 90 games.

Tampa Bay doesn’t have a particularly deep offense, so if the team is successful, it’ll likely require big years from Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero. ZiPS is still happy with Díaz as one of the better DHs in baseball, though the fact that he’ll turn 35 in August can’t completely be ignored. Nor is ZiPS projecting 45 home runs from Caminero, but he still should be easily this lineup’s largest source of pure power. The computer does expect some offensive regression from Jonathan Aranda, since being able to run a .409 BABIP — like he did last year — isn’t a skill that major leaguers just happen to possess. That said, he’s still projected to produce enough to play first base, rather than getting stuck in tweener hell — that awful place reserved for players who both aren’t good enough offensively to be first basemen and who aren’t strong enough defensively to play a more important infield spot.

ZiPS is not electronically enamored with either recent signee Cedric Mullins or Josh Lowe in the outfield, and it sees the Nick Fortes-led catching tandem as less forte and more pianissimo, but the Rays look at least passable at those positions. Carson Williams gets a solid projection from ZiPS, better than either Steamer or THEBAT, but it is a lot less excited about him, both offensively and defensively, after his rough 2025 season. Left field projects to be a real problem spot, and though Brandon Lowe is probably overrated at this point, ZiPS doesn’t really like any of his possible replacements at second base on our depth chart. ZiPS does like Jadher Areinamo’s defense a lot more than the consensus, so he’s at least interesting. Prospect Xavier Isaac doesn’t spike a big projection, but his offensive upside is real, and there’s hope that his elbow is fine, and that there are no lasting repercussions from the “life-saving” brain surgery he had over the summer.

Pitchers

Even after trading right-hander Shane Baz to the Orioles, the Rays rotation looks to be in at least decent shape. If Shane McClanahan, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2023, is fully healthy, he rounds out a pretty nice top trio with Drew Rasmussen and Ryan Pepiot. Meanwhile, offseason acquisition Steven Matz could be either a decent fourth starter or strong in a relief role, and Tropicana Field is a fairly safe home to limit his occasional homericiousness. Both Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour project as league average or just a skosh worse, so there are at least six plausible rotation candidates here, and Yoendrys Gómez isn’t that far back. What ZiPS doesn’t see is a lot of emergency depth here; it usually thinks the Rays have a number of fringy pitching prospects who could fill in admirably, but that’s not the case this time around.

The bullpen is a similar story. ZiPS isn’t super excited about Edwin Uceta, but it remains a huge fan of Griffin Jax, picked up last summer when the league pillaged the Twins. Jax was a short-term play, but ZiPS doesn’t see Taj Bradley, whom Tampa Bay sent to Minnesota in return, as being much more interesting than either Boyle or Seymour. Garrett Cleavinger gets a solid projection, and ZiPS is happy with Bryan Baker, Mason Englert, and Kevin Kelly. ZiPS is less tickled by the Rays’ options to cover lower-leverage innings, guys like Steven Wilson or Hunter Bigge, but I’m sure the team will find some random unknown reliever to put up a 3.30 ERA.

The Rays aren’t bad, but this is a tough division, and there are enough holes and questions that ZiPS is putting them in water-treading territory again, somewhere between a few games below .500 and a few games above it. That’s still a team that can sneak into a wild card, but it’ll need some good fortune to do so.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time.