Read the rest of this entry »

It’s hard to believe, but in two months, the celebratory World Series Champagne will have dried, the beer will be gone, and free agents will hit the open markets. After the season, players and teams have only five days to make their final option decisions, a choice that can have an enormous impact on future earnings or offseason team plans. I’m not here to predict all of those options in a 40,000-word article, as you, loyal FanGrapheteer, might nod off in boredom while Meg and Matt plot my no-doubt painful demise. But we can do a subset of them, the opt-outs and player options, as many of these are the biggest decisions that will need to be made in November. Plus, it’s an excuse to run out some early projections, which is always fun.

Unless I missed one, there are 15 opt-out clauses or player-only options.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Boston Red Sox

It took until mid-February for Alex Bregman to find a new team last year, and his arrival in Boston set off an unexpected chain of events that ended with Rafael Devers getting traded to San Francisco. Bregman has a particularly interesting choice to make in that he has only two years remaining on his deal, but a pretty spicy $80 million coming to him for those two seasons if he stays. Naturally, Bregman wants a little more security that what his Red Sox deal calls for, but that might not be attainable to him at his current rate of $40 million per year. He turns 32 in March, so he won’t be able to command a lucrative long-term deal like the one that Kyle Tucker, who is still in his 20s, is expected to sign this winter. Read the rest of this entry »

As both a player and a manager, Davey Johnson was a standout and a man ahead of the curve. In a 13-season playing career that spanned from 1965 to ’78, primarily as a second baseman with the Orioles and Braves, he made four All-Star teams, won three Gold Gloves, played in three World Series, and set a home run record. In a 17-season managerial career that stretched from 1984 to 2013, covered five different teams, and included a decade-long hiatus, Johnson won six division titles, one Wild Card berth, a championship, and two Manager of the Year awards. He’s indelibly linked to the Mets, first for making the final out in their 1969 upset of the Orioles and then for piloting their ’86 juggernaut to a World Series win at the peak of a six-season run.

Johnson had a knack for turning around losing teams, and for connecting with his players. Decades before the analytical revolution took hold in baseball, he was a pioneer in the use of personal computers by managers, at a time when the machines were still a novelty. Drawing upon his offseason studies at Trinity University — from which he earned a B.S. in mathematics — and Johns Hopkins, as well as his experience playing for Earl Weaver with the Orioles, he was renowned for using statistical databases to figure out probabilities and optimize his lineup and bullpen matchups.

Johnson, who last worked in baseball as a consultant for the Nationals in 2014, died on Friday in Sarasota, Florida following a long illness. He was 82 years old. Read the rest of this entry »

Watch this play. What do you notice?

Here’s what I see: Brooks Lee lofts a soft fly ball 248 feet from home plate. Chandler Simpson circles it but loses a bit of momentum by the time it lands in his glove. Twins third base coach Tommy Watkins sends the not-particularly-fast Trevor Larnach (18th-percentile sprint speed). Shallow fly ball, slow runner, close play at the plate — Larnach slides in just ahead of the throw. It’s an exciting sequence, and I’ve missed an important part of it. Read the rest of this entry »

A Player’s View piece that ran here at FG a month ago was one of my favorites to put together all season. Entertaining as well as informative — good anecdotes were in abundance — it was self-explanatorily titled: Pitchers Weigh In On Their Catch Play Partners (Some Are Nasty). As evidenced within, a casual tossing of baseballs back and forth is far from what is actually happening.

Last weekend, I learned that Bubba Chandler has scratched Paul Skenes from his partners list.

“We’ve trained together the last two off-seasons, and we’ve played catch,” the Pittsburgh Pirates rookie told me. “I don’t want to give him his flowers, but my vision isn’t great, and he’s a guy who throws hard and his pitches move a lot. The eyes can’t really keep up with the ball. And then you’re throwing in 50-degree weather with clouds and a light mist — or maybe it’s a super-bright day — and you can’t see it. And he’s just freaking ripping it. I’ll never play catch with him again.

“I got friggin’ popped in Baton Rouge this year, and that was actually indoors,” continued Chandler. “He threw his stupid sinker, and it didn’t sink. It rose off the top of my glove, right to my shoulder. So yeah, I’ll never do it again.”

As is common for starters, Chandler typically does his in-season catch play with a bullpen catcher — a breed whose job requirements make catching most anyone a comparable piece of cake. But what about other pitchers? Is Chandler an easy partner, or someone best to avoid?

“Throughout the week I’m an easy catch-play, but the day before I pitch, I let it eat a little bit,” said the righty, whose heater flirts with triple digits. “It’s not a lot of volume, maybe just 20-25 throws, but that’s the day I throw hard and it moves pretty good. I assume guys don’t want to play catch with me on that day.”

Chandler, who has made three relief appearances since being called up in late August, is scheduled to make his first MLB start this afternoon.

———

RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Eddie Mathews went 18 for 36 against Moe Drabowsky.

Carl Yastrzemski went 10 for 16 against Bill Gogolewski.

Greg Luzinski went 15 for 34 against Andy Messersmith.

Bill Mazeroski went 20 for 50 against Don Nottebart.

Ted Kluszewski went 23 for 50 against Warren Hacker.

———

Pete Crow-Armstrong was a high-profile prospect when I approached him on the back fields of the Chicago Cubs spring training complex in 2023. The young outfielder’s thoughts on his development as a hitter is what I were after, and one of the things he said in our relatively brief conversation stood out: “I feel like you’re probably going to ask me about the power.”

Two-and a-half years later, PCA, as he is affectionally called by Cubs fans, has 28 home runs and a .496 slugging percentage in his second full season in the big leagues. With that in mind, I reminded him of what he had said to me in Mesa. Looking back, was he self-conscious, or perhaps a little defensive, about his power potential?

“That was kind of the topic of conversation in my offensive game at the time,’ Crow-Armstrong told me at Wrigley Filed on Friday. “I was very prepared to be approached about the lack of power. What everybody always wanted to talk about was how my hitting was like… I think that everybody knew that I could play defense, but everybody was always more skeptical about my bat. Rightfully so. So, I was always prepared to answer questions about what was lacking in my offensive game.”

Crow-Armstrong had also told me in our back-fields exchange that his power has “always been there.” Does he have more now than he did in the minors?

“I feel like I’ve developed into my power,” he said to that question. “I have the same wiry strength, but you’re seeing the natural evolution of a growing human being that’s gotten better at what he does.”

———

A quiz:

Nolan Ryan (at age 44, in 1991) is the oldest MLB pitcher to throw a no-hitter, while Amos Rusie (at age 20, in 1891) is the youngest. The next four youngest pitchers threw theirs between 1901-1912.

Who is the youngest pitcher to throw a no-hitter in the past 100 seasons? (A hint: he won a Cy Young award and three World Series rings.)

———

NEWS NOTES

Rich Hinton, a left-hander who appeared in 116 games while playing for five teams from 1971-1979, died recently at age 78 (per Newsweek). Pitching primarily with the Chicago White Sox, Hinton was credited with nine wins and three saves.

Davey Johnson died yesterday at age 82. A highly-successful manager following his playing days, the second baseman made four All-Star teams and won three Gold Gloves while strapping on the cleats from 1965-1978. Primarily a Baltimore Oriole, Johnson hit 43 home runs for the Atlanta Braves in 1973.

———

The answer to the quiz is Vida Blue, who threw a no-hitter in September 1970, 55 days after his 21st birthday. If you guessed Wilson Alvarez, his August 1991 no-hitter came 140 days after his 21st birthday.

———

Cleveland’s Stephen Vogt was asked about Fenway Park’s outfield dimensions prior to this past Monday’s holiday matinee in Boston, and as do many managers, he pointed not to the Green Monster, but rather to the large expanse on the other side of the diamond.

“It’s like a center field in right field,” Vogt told a cadre of reporters. “There are so many cool nooks and crannies. That’s why I love baseball. Not one field is the same. But yeah, we’ve got to get our work in. Even though it’s a day game, we’ve got to come out get looks and understand what we’re dealing with.”

I had a question for Vogt regarding the opponents the Guardians have had to deal with. Which is the best team you’ve played so far this season?

“That’s a good question,” Vogt replied. “I’m stumped here. The Dodgers are obviously… when we played the Dodgers it was a really good team. But I have so much respect for everybody. There are so many really, really good teams out there. So yeah. I don’t know.”

The Guardians lost two of three games when they hosted the Dodgers in late May.

———

FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Munetaka Murakami has 18 home runs and a 246 wRC+ over 152 plate appearances in his return to action following an oblique injury (which was preceded by elbow surgery last winter). The 25-year-old Tokyo Yakult Swallows slugger is considered a strong candidate to be posted following the NPB season.

Sung-mun Song is slashing .314/.389/.528 with 24 home runs and a 149 wRC+ over 581 plate appearances with the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes. The recently-turned-29-year-old third baseman/second baseman has reportedly asked to be posted following this season.

Cody Ponce broke the KBO’s single-season strikeout record this past week. The 31-year-old Hanwha Eagles right-hander has fanned 228 batters while going 16-0 with a 1.76 ERA over 163-and-two-thirds innings. Ponce went 1-7 with a 5.86 ERA pitching for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2020-2021.

Eric Stout is 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA over 113-and-two-thirds innings for the Chinese Professional Baseball League’s TSG Hawks. The 32-year-old left-hander out of Butler University appeared in 23 games for three MLB teams, mostly the Pirates, from 2018-2022.

———

A random obscure former player snapshot:

Gene Hiser’s lone big-league home run was especially memorable. Batting with two out in the bottom of the ninth inning and the Chicago Cubs trailing the New York Mets by a count of 3-2, the outfielder cleared the right field fence at Wrigley Field to send the game to extras. The home team then walked off the June 19, 1973 contest in the 10th on a Jose Cardenal single that plated Billy Williams.

The rest of Hiser’s career wasn’t much to write home about. All told, the University of Maryland product played in 206 games for the Cubs from 1971-1975, logging 53 hits and a 45 wRC+. He did have success against a Hall of Famer. Hiser went 3-for-8 against St. Louis Cardinals legend Bob Gibson.

———

Eric Binder plays a key role in Cleveland’s pitching-development program, as well as in the organization’s draft decisions. I recently asked the assistant general manager for his thoughts on a pair of 19-year-old pitchers whom the Guardians selected in last year’s amateur draft.

“A young right-hander starter who recently transitioned from [the Arizona Complex League] to Lynchburg,” Binder said of Joey Oakie, who was selected 84th-overall out of Ankeny, Iowa’s Centennial High School. “High velocity. A fastball that we’re all excited about. How his delivery operates and with the profiles we’re seeing out of hand, he’s creating an interesting demand on the hitter with how that gets pieced together.

“Another guy from last year’s draft class,” Binder said of Braylon Doughty, who was taken 36th-overall out of Temecula, California’s Chaparral High School. “He broke with the Lynchburg team out of spring training. An incredible athlete, and you see that translate to his delivery. Some natural feel to create a lot of different shapes, with plus underlying spin traits. A natural strike thrower. We’re really excited to see him progress with us, as well.”

Doughty — seventh on our updated Guardians list, with a 45+ — has a 3.48 ERA, a 2.84 FIP, and a 27.3% strikeout rate over 85-and-a-third innings with Lynchburg. Oakie — 23rd on our list, with a 40+ FV — has a 5.31 ERA, a 4.59 FIP, and a 26.8% strikeout rate over 54-and-a-thirds between the AZL and Lynchburg. Topping out at 99 mph, Oakie has fanned 22 batters and allowed just one hit over nine-and-two-thirds innings in his last two outings.

———

FARM NOTES

Kendall George has a most-in-the-minors 101 stolen bases (in 125 attempts) to go with a .295/.409/.370 slash line, three home runs, and a 131 wRC+ over 514 plate appearances for the High-A Great Lakes Loons. No. 25 on our updated Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospect list with a 40 FV, the 20-year-old outfielder was drafted 36th overall last year out of Humble, Texas’s Atascocita High School.

Gabriel Gonzalez is slashing .329/.397/.508 with 13 home runs and a 148 wRC+ over 510 plate appearances across three levels. Currently with the Triple-A St. Paul Saints, the 21-year-old outfielder was acquired by the Minnesota Twins from the Seattle Mariners as part of the January 2024 Jorge Polanco trade. Gonzalez is No. 9 in our updated Twins rankings, with a 45 FV.

Micah Ashman has a 1.95 ERA, a 1.55 FIP, and a 33.5% strikeout rate over 55-and-a-third innings between High-A and Double-A. An 11th-round pick last year out of the University of Utah, the 23-year-old left-hander was acquired by the Baltimore Orioles from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for Charlie Morton at this summer’s trade deadline.

The Midwest League’s West Michigan Whitecaps have the best record in the minors at 90-39. The Detroit Tigers’ High-A affiliate has a plus-289 run differential.

The Dayton Dragons (High-A Cincinnati Reds) won 15 consecutive games before losing to the Lansing Lugnuts 5-4 on Thursday night. The Dragons have the Midwest League’s worst record at 51-76, and a minus-114 run differential.

———

Kenya Huggins was caught by surprise when he learned that he’d been dealt from the Reds to the Athletics at this summer’s trade deadline. A fourth-round pick by Cincinnati in 2002 out of Chipola Junior College, the 22-year-old right-hander was eating a bowl of cereal when he received the news.

“It’s the craziest experience I’ve ever had,” said Huggins, who has been with High-A Lansing since changing organizations. “It’s funny, we were actually playing here [at West Michigan]. I had just gotten promoted to Dayton, and I was going to be pitching the next day. My manager pulled me into the office and said, ‘Hey, I need to talk to you.’ I was like, ‘Cool, let’s go chat.’ I was eating a bowl of Cap’n Crunch. Had just come in from shagging. Just a regular day. No problem.

“So, I go in the office,” continued Huggins. “He told me, ‘Hey, I wanted to let you know before you look at your phone that you’ve been traded for a big-leaguer. Miguel Andujar is going to the Reds and you’ll be heading to the Athletics.’ At that moment, I had no words. All I could say was, ‘I appreciate you.’”

The hard-throwing native of New Orleans appreciates his breakfast cereal, as well. I learned as much when I asked if he finished the bowl of Cap’n Crunch.

“Yeah, I finished it,” Huggins replied with a smile. “I drank the milk, took in the information, and that was that.”

Huggins has a 3.81 ERA and a 3.80 FIP over 78 innings on the season. He is No. 13 with a 40+ FV in our latest A’s prospect rankings.

———

LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

At NBC News, David K. Li looked at how the Women’s Professional Baseball League aims to make the most significant impact on women’s baseball since the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League, which operated from 1943 to 1954.

Former Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Yonny Chirinos is pitching for the KBO’s LG Twins this season. Jee-ho Yoo wrote about him for Yonhap News Agency.

MLB.com’s Matthew Leach wrote about Minnesota Twins prospect Kala’i Rosario, who has 25 home runs and 25 steals for Double-A Wichita Wind Surge.

MLB.com’s Sarah Wexler introduced us to a prolific songwriter who has recorded hundreds of baseball tunes, many of them about specific MLB players.

Texas Rangers manager Bruce Bochy is 70 years old and in the last year of his contract. Is this his swan song? Barry Bloom delved into the question at Sportico.

———

RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Milwaukee’s Quinn Priester is 11-0 with a 2.79 ERA since May 30. The Brewers have won all 17 games he’s appeared in since that time.

A good note from ESPN’s Jesse Rogers on Friday afternoon: “The wind is blowing out at Wrigley for just the 16th time in 68 games this season. Teams have combined to average 12.9 runs per game when it blows out, compared to seven when it blows in.

Luis Arraez recorded his 1,000th career hit earlier this week. The three-time batting champ currently has 1,005 hits, including 221 extra-base hits, as well as 224 walks and 211 strikeouts.

Freddie Freeman has 938 extra-base hits, the most among active players. He is tied with Hall of Famer Eddie Mathews for 58th all-time in that category.

Rafael Devers has 16 home runs and a 136 wRC+ in 70 games with the San Francisco Giants. He had 15 home runs and a 144 wRC+ in 73 games with the Boston Red Sox prior to being traded in June.

Ichiro Suzuki and Troy Tulowitzki went a combined 0-for-28 against Ryan Vogelsong. Omar Infante and Billy Hamilton went a combined 13-for-19 against Vogelsong.

On today’s date in 1971, Mickey Lolich went the distance to run his record to 23-10 as the Detoit Tigers blanked the Washington Senators 3-0 at RFK Stadium. Lolich finished the season 25-14 with a 2.92 ERA over 376 innings. He threw complete games in 29 of his 45 starts.

The Boston Braves swept a doubleheader from the Brooklyn Dodgers on today’s date in 1948, winning by scores of 2-1 and 4-0. Warren Spahn went the distance in the 14-inning opener, then Johnny Sain threw a complete game of his own while throwing half as many frames. The nightcap was called on account of darkness after the Dodgers batted in the top of the seventh.

Players born on today’s date include John Pawlowski, a right-hander who made eight relief appearances for the Chicago White Sox across the 1987-1988 seasons. A longtime college coach following his playing career, Pawlowski was on the winning end of his lone decision, the W coming courtesy of a Carlton Fisk walk-off home run against Oakland’s Eric Plunk.

Also born on today’s date was Stan Pawloski, an infielder whose big-league career comprised two games and one hit in eight at-bats for the Cleveland Indians in 1955. The Wanamie, Pennsylvania native spent nine seasons on the farm, the first of them with the 1949 Stroudsburg Poconos, a team that went 101-36 before going on to top the Peekskill Highlanders in the North Atlantic League championship series.

Hello everyone, and welcome to the first mailbag of September. We have just over three weeks to go in the regular season, and despite what our Playoff Odds say, I am still holding out hope for at least one or two exciting postseason races.

Entering play Friday night, 11 teams (six in the NL and five in the AL) had a better than 90% chance to reach the playoffs; at 74.2%, the Mariners were the only club in possession of a playoff spot that was on less solid ground. Three other teams could still spoil Seattle’s fun: the Rangers (12.5%), the Royals (10.6%), and the Rays (10.2%). Of the Senior Circuit teams that aren’t in a playoff position, the Giants (4.3%) had the best shot of snagging a Wild Card berth. However, for any of you cheering for chaos, the Reds (2.3%) host the Mets, the current six seed, for three games this weekend; Cincinnati began the series five games behind New York.

We won’t be answering any questions about the playoff race today, but we do touch on a couple of players on contending teams. Before we get to them, though, a few quick things: First, thanks to Meg Rowley for putting together last week’s mailbag while I was on vacation, which I spent in Toronto watching baseball! My dad and I had never been to Rogers Centre before, so we decided to check another ballpark off our list. Also, FanGraphs is hiring a full-time prospect writer. For more information, check out the job posting here. Finally, I’d like to remind all of you that while anyone can submit a question, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about whether Trent Grisham’s 30-homer season is more or less surprising than Juan Soto’s almost-30-steal season, Colson Montgomery’s dinger spree, why there hasn’t been a no-hitter this season, and the exciting-but-boring AL/NL West races. Then (26:47) they bring on top-tier Patreon supporter Ashton Moss to banter about his baseball background and answer listener emails about the value of crowds, minor leaguers and strikeouts, WAR and pitcher value, the effect of funk on familiarity, double switches, automatic doubles, missing bats, rounding bases, and BP with fielders, plus (1:46:18) a postscript.

Audio intro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Cory Brent, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Trammell bat story
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Link to team records since 8/1
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Are you a fan of a team in playoff position? Are you tearing your hair out because their bullpen has been completely unable to get anybody out over the past couple weeks? Is this starting to get creepy? Does it feel as if I’m staring straight into your very soul? Worry not. I’m just playing the odds. Below is a table that shows bullpen performance over the last 14 days, but only for the 13 teams with at least a 12% chance of making the playoffs. I’ve highlighted the teams whose ERA ranks in the bottom half of the league over that stretch:

There are the Red Sox in fifth place, looking solid with a 3.40 ERA. But, uh, this not exactly an encouraging sign for all these playoff teams. That’s a lot of yellow. Boston is the only team in the top 10; no one else has a bullpen ERA below 4.00. Only five of these teams are even in the top half of the league. The Mets, Yankees, Cubs, and Blue Jays all have ERAs over 5.00.

The Brewers are tied with the Twins for the league lead with five blown saves in the past two weeks. The Blue Jays and Phillies each have four. Just a reminder: The Brewers have the best record in baseball, and the Blue Jays and Phillies are tied for the second best. All of sudden, none of them can close out a game to save their lives.

Once again, I need to disavow any supernatural influence here. I don’t think there’s a paranormal reason that seemingly every good baseball team’s bullpen is in a rut. It’s mostly a coincidence. If we look at FIP, things are much more reasonable. Six of our 13 teams are in the top 10, and only four are in the bottom half of the league. That’s pretty much what you’d expect. Most of the good teams have strong bullpens. This is a short stretch, a small sample of innings, and a volatile cohort to start with. The Brewers’ bullpen has an excellent 3.29 FIP over the past two weeks, but it’s blown five saves anyway. Stuff happens.

I’ll break down the four teams at the bottom of the table along with a couple others I found noteworthy due to injury reasons, or because I’m worried about them heading into the playoffs, but that’s mostly what I wanted to tell you. All the bullpens seem to be blowing up right now. It’s weird. If you’re tearing your hair out because we’re in September and your bullpen can’t hold on to a lead, relax. First, there may be enough time to right the ship. Second, whoever you’re facing in the playoffs can’t hold a lead right now either, unless it’s the Red Sox (who gave up eight runs in a bullpen game last night, presumably because that’s what all the cool kids are doing).

Mets
The Mets lead the league with a whopping six relievers on the IL right now: Reed Garrett, Drew Smith, Danny Young, A.J. Minter, Max Kranick, and Dedniel Núñez. Smith, Minter, Kranick, and Garrett had all been pitching well before their injuries. That’s four good relievers lost, and only Garrett has a chance to return this season. That’s how the Mets ended up claiming Wander Suero, who has thrown just 6 1/3 major league innings in the last two seasons combined, from the Braves off waivers yesterday. Suero has a 1.35 ERA and 2.63 FIP over 46 2/3 innings in Triple-A Gwinnett, and he will get the chance to prove that’s not a fluke. The Mets called him up less than half an hour ago to take the spot of the struggling Kodai Senga, who has been optioned to Syracuse.

More than that, Ryan Helsley has been completely ineffective since the deadline trade that brought him to New York from St. Louis. He had a 3.00 ERA and 3.56 FIP as a Cardinal, and he has a 11.45 ERA and 6.50 FIP as a Met. Helsley said last week that he thinks he’s been tipping pitches. With any luck, he’ll get that sorted out. If he does that and Garrett comes back pitching well, they’ll join Tyler Rogers, lefties Brooks Raley and Gregory Soto, and closer Edwin Díaz, all of whom are putting up good numbers this season. Somehow the Mets could still put together a solid bullpen going into the playoffs.

Dodgers
The Dodgers’ relievers rank third in the majors with 5.2 WAR this season, but that’s mostly because they’ve been asked to throw 570 1/3 innings, the most in baseball. At the moment, RosterResource says they’re tied with the Brewers at five injured relievers, one behind the Mets. They lost Evan Phillips to Tommy John surgery in May, deadline acquisition Brock Stewart went on the IL with shoulder inflammation almost immediately after the trade, and Alex Vesia strained an oblique on August 21. Jack Dreyer, Justin Wrobleski, and Ben Casparius are the only relievers on the team with FIPs below 3.50. Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates are load-bearing pieces who have taken major steps back and lost time to injury besides, and yet the Dodgers are still one of the higher teams on the list. After missing time with forearm tightness earlier in the season, Blake Treinen has allowed just two runs in his last 12 appearances, and his ERA is down to 3.00.

Yankees
The headliner here is the 5.60 ERA that Devin Williams has put up this season, but as Michael Baumann wrote earlier today, the underlying numbers aren’t that bad. They’re maybe even good. The Yankees lost Jake Cousins to Tommy John surgery in June and Jonathan Loáisiga to a flexor strain in August. Brent Headrick is also on the IL after taking a line drive off his pitching arm. The Yankees have also suffered blowups from Paul Blackburn and Yerry De los Santos. They pulled the plug on deadline acquisition Jake Bird almost immediately. He had a 4.73 ERA and and 3.50 FIP in Colorado before the deadline, but he got into just three games for the Yankees, allowing six runs over two innings before being optioned to Triple-A, where he has continued to struggle. Luke Weaver has been bitten by the home run bug lately, allowing four in his last seven appearances for an ERA of 5.14. However, his average exit velocity over that stretch is lower than it’s been the rest of the season, and he’s run a 2.53 xFIP. It seems more like bad luck than anything.

Fernando Cruz and David Bednar have been lights-out, Tim Hill is still a groundball machine, and Camilo Doval hasn’t allowed a run in his last five appearances. Over the entire season, the Yankees bullpen has a 3.93 xFIP, tied for second-best in baseball. Over the past two weeks, they’ve got the second-best FIP despite the hideous ERA. It’s hard to imagine them making a run without Williams and Weaver (The Deadly W’s) turning things around, but this isn’t necessarily a disastrous ‘pen either.

Cubs
By most metrics, the Cubs bullpen has been right in the middle of the pack this year. In the past two weeks, its 3.05 xFIP is the third best in baseball. So why are the ERA and FIP so ugly? That’s the danger of playing in homer-friendly Wrigley Field in August. Over that stretch, 21.1% of their fly balls have gone for home runs, second only to the Rockies (and not coincidentally, they recently spent a three-game series in Colorado). Drew Pomeranz and Taylor Rogers have put up good seasons, but have each given up a couple of homers in recent weeks, and because the Cubs have relied on their bullpen less than just about any other team over that stretch, those mistakes have been magnified. Nothing that’s happened in the past two weeks has made me change my opinion of this relief corps.

Phillies
Philadelphia’s bullpen has been an issue all year long. Free agent signings Joe Ross and Jordan Romano have not worked out at all, putting up a combined -0.5 WAR over 86 appearances and 93 2/3 innings. The good news is that the bullpen looks very different now. The Phillies released Ross, and Romano hit the IL with middle finger inflammation. They signed David Robertson in free agency in July, traded for Jhoan Duran at the deadline, and got star lefty José Alvarado back from an 80-game PED suspension on August 20. Alvardo has looked very rusty since his return and won’t be available for the playoffs, but Robertson and Duran have been excellent. Together with Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks, the Phillies should have a serviceable, if shallow, bullpen going into October. With Zack Wheeler out and Aaron Nola struggling, the rotation may be the bigger concern.

Blue Jays
How much time do you have? The Blue Jays had the worst bullpen in baseball in 2024, and if nothing else, they looked primed to bounce back. They non-tendered Jordan Romano. They signed the excellent Jeff Hoffman, traded for Nick Sandlin, brought back Yimi García and Ryan Yarbrough, and took flyers on arms like Amir Garrett, Jacob Barnes, and Richard Lovelady. And they have bounced back. They rank in the middle of the pack in both ERA and FIP, and seventh in xFIP. Lately, though, they just can’t seem to get outs.

They released Yarbrough before the season. The fliers they took haven’t worked out, nor have in-house guys like Chad Green, Zach Pop, and Erik Swanson. They’ve lost major pieces, with both Sandlin and García out for the season. Other injuries forced Easton Lucas and Eric Lauer into starting roles, where they’ve performed significantly worse. Hoffman put up three ugly performances in the last week of August, though he’s looked much better in the past week. Although the underlying numbers aren’t bad, deadline acquisition Louis Varland has a 6.91 ERA in 15 appearances as a Blue Jay.

If Hoffman can keep things straightened out, if Varland’s luck can turn around, if Lucas and Lauer can get back in the bullpen, if the arms that got them here – Yariel Rodríguez, Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher – can keep doing what they’re doing, the Blue Jays could have a decent bullpen going into the playoffs. But that’s a lot of ifs.

The Mariners entered the season with a starting rotation that was the envy of nearly every other team in baseball, with four young homegrown pitchers in Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, and Luis Castillo as the veteran ace to lead the group. Our preseason projections had Seattle’s rotation as the seventh best in baseball, only held back by its lack of depth behind the top five starters. Three of those young starters appeared on Ben Clemens’ midseason Trade Value list, ranked 23rd (Kirby), 34th (Woo), and 36th (Gilbert). The M’s rotation has been the key to their success over the last few years, but lately, that same highly regarded group has been the weakest link for the Mariners as they fight to maintain a playoff spot.

Since the All-Star break, Seattle’s rotation has put up a 4.55 ERA and a 4.27 FIP, 19th and 16th in the majors, respectively. It’s been even worse over the last 30 days: a 4.94 ERA (20th) and a 4.66 FIP (21st). Kirby has allowed seven or more runs in two of his last four starts, and was knocked around for 10 hits and eight runs (seven earned) in two innings in his start against the Rays on Wednesday. Castillo has allowed five or more runs in three of his last four starts. Gilbert suffered through an ugly six-run blowup in Philadelphia a few weeks ago. Miller is sporting a 5.63 ERA since being activated off the IL on August 19. Even the metronomic Woo had his streak of 25 starts of at least six innings snapped on August 27.

These problems becomes even more stark when you compare their performance inside the confines of the extremely pitcher friendly T-Mobile Park to their struggles on the road. This season at home, the rotation is putting up a 3.40 ERA and a 3.82 FIP, fourth and ninth best in the majors, respectively. On the road, those marks drop to a 4.69 ERA (26th) and 4.44 (22nd). The Mariners have a 32-40 record on the road this year, and these pitching issues are a big reason why.

All of these struggles are showing up in the standings, too. The M’s are 22-22 during the second half, but since a 9-1 homestand to start the month of August, they’re 7-14, with four of those seven wins coming at home. Seattle has had two long East Coast road trips during this stretch, which have included sweeps by the Phillies and Rays, and a combined 3-12 record with three more games to play in Atlanta this weekend. Despite all this, the M’s currently hold the final AL Wild Card spot, just 1.5 games ahead of the Rangers and 3.5 games behind the Astros in the AL West.

It’s worth noting that three of the Mariners’ starters have spent a significant amount of time on the IL this year: Kirby was sidelined during spring training with a shoulder injury and wound up missing nearly two months of the season; Gilbert missed all of May and half of June with a flexor strain in his elbow; and Miller has had two separate IL stints due to inflammation in his elbow stemming from a bone spur. Seattle’s starters have thrown the most innings in baseball since the beginning of the 2022 season, and it’s possible that heavy workload over these past few years is catching up with them.

Here’s how the performance of the team’s five starters has changed from the first half to the second half:

It’s at least a little encouraging to see that the peripherals for Kirby and Gilbert look solid during the second half, even if their top line results have suffered. There are some red flags for Woo and Castillo, however; the former is 20 innings past his previous career high set last year and the latter is showing some worrying signs of fatigue. I think it’s worthwhile to take a closer look at Kirby, Gilbert and Castillo, and try to see what might be causing their issues and if there’s any hope of a turnaround in the final month of the season.

It’s been a really up-and-down season for Kirby. Maybe because of the shoulder injury, he’s never really looked like he’s settled in since being activated off the IL. The biggest clue he hasn’t been feeling like himself is his walk rate. From his debut in 2022 through the end of 2024, Kirby had exactly two starts where he allowed three walks; this year, he’s already had five starts where he’s allowed three walks. His walk rate has nearly doubled, though when it’s going from 3.0% to 5.9%, it’s still an above-average mark compared to the league.

I have a hunch that his command issues stem from a pretty significant change to his arm angle. Kirby had been throwing from a pretty standard three-quarters arm slot for his entire career, but it suddenly dropped eight degrees this year. I’m not sure if that change in mechanics stemmed from his shoulder injury — it’s possible he’s compensating for a still slightly damaged shoulder by dropping his arm slot, or that his body found a new “natural” arm slot during his rehab. Whatever the cause, the new mechanics have had a pretty dramatic effect on the characteristics of his pitches. Here’s what a few of Kirby’s key physical metrics look like for his four-seam fastball:

His heater lost some raw carry (IVB), but it gained a much flatter approach angle and now sits well outside the fastball “dead zone.” The results the pitch is generating haven’t changed all that much; Kirby is still garnering a whiff more than a quarter of the time, and the expected wOBA allowed off of his fastball is right around his career norms. But he’s throwing the pitch in the strike zone just 51.6% of the time, down from 53.2% last year and 58.0% in 2023.

Along with a flatter fastball, a lower arm angle has given Kirby’s entire arsenal a lot more horizontal movement. His slider is moving three inches more to his glove side and his curveball has an extra inch of break. His sinker and splitter both have a bunch more arm-side movement as well. That break has definitely benefitted his breaking balls, as both are running career-high whiff rates. Kirby has struggled to find a consistent breaking ball he can use to earn those swings-and-misses, and it finally looks like he’s got two of them.

Unfortunately, the new arm slot seems to have caused Kirby to ditch his splitter. He added that pitch in 2023 in an effort to find an offspeed offering to use against left-handed batters, and it’s been an important piece of his arsenal since then. He was throwing his split like normal in May when he first returned from his shoulder injury, but quickly ditched it after his second start in favor of a changeup. The new offspeed pitch is coming in a little harder than the splitter, with less drop and more arm-side break. Batters are having trouble putting the new changeup in play with any authority — it has a .155 expected wOBA — but its 11.1% whiff rate leaves a lot to be desired when compared to the near 30% whiff rate the splitter had.

It’s fair to wonder if all these changes to his mechanics and pitch shapes have caused Kirby’s usually pinpoint command to waver a bit as he gets used to his new norm. It’s also possible that he’s just been the victim of some really poor luck; his peripherals all look pretty solid, with his 3.56 FIP nearly a run lower than his 4.47 ERA. All his other ERA estimators — a 3.52 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, and a 4.10 xERA — point to some improvement to come as well.

Kirby isn’t the only starter on the Mariners whose mechanics have undergone a dramatic change this year: Gilbert has dropped his arm angle from a high, over-the-top delivery to a three-quarters arm slot. Mikey Ajeto detailed this change in a piece for Baseball Prospectus back in June, writing:

Gilbert’s fastball has gotten flatter, and his splitter steeper. Now his fastball is flatter than the average fastball, and his splitter is not only steeper than the average splitter, it’s getting forkball depth. Now he’s throwing strikes again with his fastball, and his splitter is one of the deadliest two-strike pitches in MLB.

Among all pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, Gilbert leads the way in strikeout rate at 34.2%. And like Kirby, his ERA is half a run higher than his FIP, though his issue is a little easier to pinpoint. His 2.64 xFIP tells you almost everything you need to know: Gilbert is allowing far too many home runs despite all those swings and misses.

Interestingly, it’s not his fastball that’s the culprit. The flatter approach angle has helped him tone down the damage allowed off his heater. Instead, it’s Gilbert’s slider that’s causing some of these issues. The breaking ball is still generating plenty of whiffs, but when batters put the pitch in play, they’re crushing it. He’s allowed a .719 slug and a .445 expected wOBA with the breaker, which means that even though batters whiff against it more than a third of the time, it’s returned a negative run value this year.

Like the rest of his repertoire, the slider’s physical shape has changed with Gilbert’s lower arm slot. It’s a near perfect gyro slider, but this year, it has slightly less drop and a bit less horizontal break. We’re talking a half inch difference in both directions, but that could be enough to throw off Gilbert’s location with the pitch. Here’s a heat map of his slider locations this year:

Right down the heart of the plate isn’t the ideal location for a slider. If he’s throwing his breaking ball expecting it to drop an extra half inch, those locations could make a little more sense. He just hasn’t made the adjustment to his target yet and continues to leave those breaking balls in a very dangerous part of the zone.

As for Castillo, the issue is pretty easy to spot:

Castillo’s fastball velocity was right around 95 mph for most of the season, not too dramatically different from where it was last year and in 2023. But in August, his fastball was suddenly averaging 94 mph, and his ERA ballooned to 7.31 with the diminished velocity. Castillo’s heater has been his primary weapon since joining the Mariners, a pretty significant change from his time with the Reds, when his changeup was his best pitch. With Seattle, he has emphasized the hard stuff at the expense of the offspeed pitch, but that’s become a liability in these last seven starts with the lost velocity:

Batters were already hitting Castillo’s fastball pretty well earlier in the season, but he was mostly mitigating the damage. Since his July 28 start, however, his fastball has been getting crushed. He’s responded by throwing his sinker and slider a bit more often, but his sinker gets hit almost as hard as his four-seamer without the potential for swings and misses.

Castillo has been a durable and very effective starter for most of his career, but he’s suddenly facing a future with a diminished version of one of his best weapons. I’m not sure simply changing up his pitch mix to feature more sinkers is the answer either. I think he’s going to need to lean on his secondary pitches a lot more heavily to succeed; his slider is an excellent breaking ball and his changeup is largely unchanged from its peak with Cincinnati. I’m not sure if Castillo can make a switch to his approach in time to salvage the rest of this season, but I’m sure it will be one of the top priorities for the Mariners’ pitching lab this offseason.

For all their recent issues, the Mariners rotation still possesses a tremendous amount of talent. Both Kirby and Gilbert seem like they’ve been victims of some bad luck even as they try to navigate new pitching mechanics. Woo has continued to look fantastic despite running up against some workload concerns. Castillo and Miller have some big question marks going forward, and you’d think that one or both of them would be relegated to the bullpen in a potential playoff series. And for what it’s worth, our Depth Charts projections think the Mariners will have the third-best rotation in baseball for the remainder of the regular season. They’ll need all that talent to show up over these next few weeks as they fight for their spot in a tight AL playoff race.

Roman Anthony has made quite an impact for the Red Sox this season. When the no. 2 prospect on our preseason Top 100 Prospects list was summoned to Boston in June, the Red Sox were 32-35, closer to last place in the AL East than first. Less than a week after he arrived, Boston traded away Rafael Devers, and since then Anthony has been nothing less than the team’s top hitter while helping it post the AL’s best record over that span. Alas, the 21-year-old phenom may not be able to help the Red Sox nail down a Wild Card spot, as an oblique strain will likely sideline him for at least the remainder of the regular season — and perhaps longer.

Anthony suffered the injury during the fourth inning of Tuesday’s game against the Guardians at Fenway Park. He felt something on his left side after a checked swing, then struck out swinging at the next pitch, after which he grabbed his lower left side while walking away from the plate.

Anthony didn’t return to the field for the top of the fifth inning; instead, he was replaced by Nate Eaton. An MRI taken on Wednesday morning revealed what the outfielder told reporters is a Grade 2 strain, an injury that typically takes four to six weeks to heal. Read the rest of this entry »