For the 20th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

For a very long time, the Cardinals were one of the safest bets in baseball. They’ve rarely been a juggernaut in recent decades, but they almost never had disastrous seasons and could almost always be counted on to end up with somewhere between 87 and 92 wins no matter what kind of shenanigans took place during the season.

Then 2023 happened. After posting just one season below .500 in the 21st century, the Cardinals finished with 91 losses, their worst showing since 1990, which was also the last time they finished in last place in the division. Back then, the team quickly recovered and immediately got back to a winning record, though it didn’t make the playoffs again until 1996. Read the rest of this entry »

This year I had the honor of filling out a Hall of Fame ballot for the fourth time, and as was the case with the previous three, I’m taking the time to explain my reasoning. This is something that I feel every voter should do. Filling out a ballot is a privilege that demands not only due diligence, but also transparency. That said, let’s cut to the chase.

My checkmarks went next to the names of 10 players — the maximum number allowed — seven of whom are holdovers from last year, and three of whom are new to the ballot. In alphabetical order, my votes went to Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Joe Mauer, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Chase Utley, and Billy Wagner.

Yes, Andruw Jones’s name is missing from that list. No, I am not particularly pleased by his non-inclusion. The erstwhile Atlanta Braves star had received my vote three times prior, and in a perfect world he would have again this year. But it’s not a perfect world. Again, only 10 checkmarks are allowed, and with three worthy newcomers joining eight holdovers from last year’s ballot, someone had to draw the short stick. Ultimately, I decided it would be Jones.

Who might I have dropped instead? That’s a question that would require more words to answer adequately than I have room for in this column, but I will say that a certain amount of strategic thinking went into the decision. As my esteemed colleague Jay Jaffe can attest, any thoughts of my omitting Gary Sheffield (currently polling at 71.9%) were dispelled with a reminder that this is his last year on the ballot. While the likelihood of Sheffield’s reaching the required 75% threshold isn’t high, it’s also not impossible. Conversely, Jones (currently at 62.5%, a few percentage points better than last year), has three more years of eligibility left beyond this cycle. I am likely to resume voting for him 12 months from now. Read the rest of this entry »

In 2023, I once again had an opportunity to interview numerous people within the game. Many of their words were shared in my Sunday Notes column, while others came via an assortment of Q&As, feature stories, and the Talks Hitting series. Here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations, with the bolded lines linking to the pieces they were excerpted from.

———

“Mike came over to me and said that they were probably going to take Gausman, because they needed a college pitcher who was going to be quick to the big leagues..… We thought Buxton was going to be our guy. That was how we ranked them. We had Gausman after Mike [Zunino], but we had Buxton ahead of both of them.” — Tom McNamara, former Seattle Mariners scouting director

“Victor [Martinez] would go up there and call his shot,. He would say, ‘I’m going to sit on a breaking ball here,’ then he’d spit on two fastballs and when they hung a breaking ball he would hit it into the bullpen. He was really fun to watch hit, because he was playing chess up there a lot of times.” — Josh Barfield, Arizona Diamondbacks farm director

“There are indicators with the advent of Statcast and ball tracking that are even more predictive of the underlying metrics, which are more predictive than traditional rate statistics. That’s on a year over year. But when you look at multi-year models, players change and projection comes into play. That’s where the art comes into play.” — Randy Flores, St. Louis Cardinals scouting director

“Every morning Josh wakes up, and in his Slack channel is a major-league pitcher that has a game plan attached to it. It’s a little bit of an exercise that we do with him. He’s recreating what it feels like to prepare that day… If we’re facing [Framber] Valdez, or facing [Gerrit] Cole, what angles do I want to set up? Where are my eyes? What is the discipline in my eyes that day?” —Donny Ecker, Texas Rangers bench coach/offensive coordinator Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh is joined by Hannah Keyser and Zach Crizer, formerly of Yahoo Sports and the Bandwagon podcast, to discuss at least one listener-nominated, previously overlooked topic from 2023 about each MLB team.

Audio intro: Beatwriter, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to The Bandwagon
Link to Hannah’s Yahoo archive
Link to Zach’s Yahoo archive
Link to Zach’s website
Link to Votto tweet
Link to Yamamoto comment
Link to links/notes spreadsheet

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The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

“What if I voted for Bartolo Colon?” The thought crossed my mind on more than one occasion as I counted the number of candidates I intended to vote for on my 2024 Hall of Fame ballot on my fingers. Last year, I only voted for seven, which felt uncharacteristically stingy given the history of my advocacy. In the weeks and days leading up to my putting pen to paper, this time I had nine in mind. Why not top it off to a nice round number?

I’ll take you through my process in answering this pressing question soon enough. This is my fourth year with an actual ballot, but filling one out hardly feels like old hat, even with 23 years of analyzing Hall of Fame elections under my belt, and 21 years of doing so while armed with the system that became JAWS (the official 20th anniversary of the metric’s introduction is next week). While so many mentors, peers, and colleagues have come and gone in this racket, I’m grateful to have stuck around long enough to have earned the right to vote, and it’s a privilege I look forward to, even with the heightened scrutiny that comes with it. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Bartolo Colon could throw strikes. At the outset of his 21-year major league career, Colon blew 100-mph fastballs by hitters, and within a couple years showed off top-of-the-rotation form. Over a decade and more than half a dozen teams later, following a controversial arm surgery, Colon’s ability to locate his sinker to both sides of the plate with precision gained him greater renown. In one 2012 start, he threw 38 consecutive strikes.

Indeed, it was the second act of his career — or was it the third, or even the fourth? — during which Colon became an unlikely cult favorite. The Dominican-born righty had listed at 5-foot-10, 185 pounds while in the minors, but his biggest contract extension had a weight clause centered at 225 pounds. After suffering a torn rotator cuff at the tail end of his Cy Young Award-winning 2005 season, he spent nearly half a decade knocking around before undergoing experimental injections of fat and stem cells into his shoulder and elbow, and by the time he reemerged in his late 30s, he was officially listed at 285 pounds. His everyman build made him more relatable, but it camouflaged an exceptional athleticism. “Big Sexy” — the nickname given to him by teammate Noah Syndergaard, and later the title of his 2020 autobiography — could field his position with enough flair to execute a behind-the-back throw. He could high-kick like a Rockette, and do splits like a ballerina. “One of the stereotypes of Bartolo is because he has an atypical body type for a pitcher, he is not in shape,” said Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro in 2004. “But this guy is amazingly strong. He’s like [former Houston Oiler running back] Earl Campbell from the waist down. He is a strong, strong man, and that core strength is what it’s all about.” Read the rest of this entry »

With this year’s MLB free agent market enlivened by international players, Ben Lindbergh talks to three guests about three baseball-rich countries. First, Jeeho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency joins to discuss the response in South Korea to Jung Hoo Lee 이정후’s signing, Shin-Soo Choo 추신수’s forthcoming retirement, the legendary career of Choi Dong-won, and the ongoing reckoning with bullying in the KBO and Korean culture at large. Then (44:21) Ben talks to NPB historian Rob Fitts about trailblazing Japanese pitchers Eiji Sawamura and Masanori Murakami, and how baseball would be different if Japanese players had entered MLB earlier. Lastly (1:12:02), Ben brings on Sami Khan, co-director of The Last Out, a documentary about three Cuban players who hoped to make the majors, to discuss their harrowing defections and how a talent exodus affected Cuban baseball.

Audio intro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Yoo on Lee
Link to Yoo on Lee 2
Link to Yoo on Lee 3
Link to Yoo on Lee 4
Link to Yoo on Choo
Link to Yoo on Fedde
Link to other Fedde article
Link to Choi Dong-won wiki
Link to Choi Dong-won Award wiki
Link to Yoo on An’s bullying
Link to Yoo on An 2
Link to An scouting report
Link to info on Babcock firing
Link to info on Peters firing
Link to volleyball twins article
Link to K-pop bullies
Link to Mel Hall article
Link to Mel Hall wiki
Link to Rakuten bullying
Link to Stove League EW wiki
Link to stream Stove League
Link to translators EW episode
Link to baseball deadening article
Link to KBO rules changes
Link to Yomiuri baseball cheers
Link to Rob’s website
Link to Rob’s SABR page
Link to Sawamura wiki
Link to Sawamura Award wiki
Link to posting system explainer
Link to EW Episode 1311
Link to EW Episode 1621
Link to EW Episode 1816
Link to Sugar wiki
Link to Ballplayer: Pelotero wiki
Link to Cuba-NPB/KBO article
Link to post on Rodríguez defection
Link to article on Rodríguez FA
Link to article on Arocha
Link to The Last Out trailer
Link to The Last Out website
Link to Q&A with the doc stars
Link to ESPN on Dominguez
Link to article on Cuban baseball decline
Link to ESPN on Cuba and the WBC
Link to wet feet, dry feet wiki
Link to 2018 MLB deal
Link to scuttled MLB deal

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Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs’ Ben Clemens continue a cherished podcast tradition by conducting the 11th annual Effectively Wild Minor League Free Agent Draft, in which they select 10 minor league free agents each and compete to see whose roster will accumulate the most combined MLB playing time in 2024.

Audio intro: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to list of minor league FA
Link to Down on the Farm explainer
Link to BA on MiLB FA hitters
Link to last year’s draft
Link to competitions/drafts sheets
Link to EW wiki on draft history
Link to this draft’s results

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Last Sunday’s column included my opining that Joey Votto should retire rather than sign with a team other than the Cincinnati Reds, thus making him a one-franchise player. My friend Sam — a bona fide baseball nerd — read the column and proceeded to share an interesting thought when I ran into him at the coffee shop we both frequent. Being of the belief that players sticking with one team is a good thing — I think most fans would concur — Sam wonders if tweaking the Competitive Balance Tax in a manner that would incentivize teams’ ability to re-sign their free agents might be possible. For instance, if player X were to sign a one-year $20M contract with a new team, the entire amount would factor into the team’s payroll. Conversely, if Player X re-signed with his old team, a lesser amount ($10M?) would count toward it.

Sam didn’t mention Mookie Betts, but he may well have had him in mind. With their superstar outfielder one year away from free agency, and the CBT an acknowledged factor, the Red Sox traded Betts, along with David Price, to the Dodgers, thereby slashing over $40M from their forthcoming 2020 payroll. The deal put them a reported $18M below the threshold. Whether or not Betts would have opted to re-sign with Boston is another question, but the CBT clearly played a role in his departure.

Ben Clemens brought up basketball’s “Bird Rights” as a parallel when I asked for his thoughts on Sam’s idea. As my colleague pointed out, NBA teams get to exempt hometown stars from the salary cap in some situations. Of course, MLB doesn’t have a ceiling. Nor does it have a floor, which further complicates the issue. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Baseball Prospectus editor-in-chief Craig Goldstein discuss all the fallout from the Dodgers’ record-breaking signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, including how it affects fan perceptions of the Dodgers, whether it’s good for MLB to have a heel, whether there’s a more virtuous way to win, the terms of the contract and their expectations for Yamamoto, whether the Dodgers will make even more moves, the impact on the teams that missed out on Yamamoto, and much more.

Audio intro: Alex Glossman and Ali Breneman, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ian H., “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to “most important signing”
Link to Craig on Yamamoto
Link to Craig on Glasnow
Link to Eric on Yamamoto
Link to previous EW on Yamamoto
Link to FG payroll page
Link to Dodgers depth chart
Link to Dodgers contracts list
Link to Eno on Yamamoto
Link to Rosenthal on Yamamoto
Link to Rosenthal on other offers
Link to Harris on Ohtani’s deal
Link to story on Dodgers spending
Link to Passan on Yamamoto
Link to criminals spreadsheet
Link to Ben on Japanese pitchers
Link to Ben on Mookie
Link to Ben on October Dodgers
Link to Kram on October Dodgers
Link to Ben on spending/winning
Link to Ardaya on Syndergaard
Link to Sam on sad Kershaw
Link to Zimmerman on pitcher height
Link to Grant on Yamamoto
Link to Berman tweet
Link to Giants’ Ohtani offer
Link to article on Red Sox
Link to Five and Dive
Link to PECOTA release
Link to Baseball Byways blog
Link to Arenado article

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
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