Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and Happy Pi Day, folks! I’m in the middle of a snowstorm with a sick kiddo underfoot and a contractor overstaying his welcome, but we’re gonna try to get this one in.
2:03
Jay Jaffe: ‘Tis the season when I plug away at the Positional Power Rankings, so I haven’t published anything since Friday’s look at how the injuries of some high-profile starting pitchers will be handled within their various rotations https://blogs.fangraphs.com/painter-rodon-gonsolin-and-quintana-are-th…
Chip: Most knowledgeable people make the point that you shouldn’t read too much into spring training results, mostly referring to misplaced optimism or pessimism. What if a guy is continuing an already bad trend? I’m thinking specifically of Spencer Torkelson who was bad last year, changed his bat, and now is bad in spring training. Is he, just, maybe not a major league player?
2:08
Jay Jaffe: Count me as one who thinks you shouldn’t read too much into spring results, or dismiss a 23-year-old with 70-grade raw power after just 404 major league plate appearances. Should he be in the majors yet? Maybe not, given his modest results at Triple-A. Should you build your fantasy roster around him? Hell no. But 29 spring ABs in the first half of March against variable competition tells you nothing about where his career is going
The Diamondbacks left a huge hole in their outfield when they traded Daulton Varsho to Toronto a few days before Christmas. He was not only Arizona’s leader in position player WAR but also the top defensive outfielder in baseball in 2022, according to UZR and outs above average. He brought back a significant haul— an elite young catcher in Gabriel Moreno and a potent corner bat in Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — but left a significant hole to fill in the outfield. Will Diamondbacks pitchers suddenly suffer endless bloop hits and doubles to the gap in his absence?
“There have been times when I’ve been in center, Alek’s been in left, Corbin’s been in right, kind of mismatching all over,” says Jake McCarthy. “When there’s a ball in the gap or over someone’s head, you never assume it’s a hit.”
There’s plenty of competition for playing time among Diamondbacks outfielders this spring. But in an ideal world, Arizona will line up with McCarthy and the two teammates he mentioned — Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas — to form the fastest outfield in baseball. Read the rest of this entry »
Monday night was special for Team Rubio. By falling to Venezuela on Sunday night, Puerto Rico had put themselves in a position with little room for error and faced a win-or go home scenario against the Dominican Republic on Wednesday night. Taking on Israel in its third game of Pool D play and with limited pitching depth, the team needed a nails performance from starter José De León. He didn’t disappoint, delivering for his people and providing a historic WBC performance. In a mercy rule win, Puerto Rico combined for eight perfect innings led by De León, who went 17 up and 17 down with 10 strikeouts.
After a top of the first inning that was over before you could blink, Team Rubio immediately got it going offensively. As Yonder Alonso said on the broadcast, “early and often” was the goal for this lineup after Puerto Rico almost rallied back from a big deficit against Venezuela the night before, bringing the tying run to the plate in the eighth inning after trailing 7–0 in the second. To carry that energy over, the top of Puerto Rico’s lineup had to set the table. Francisco Lindor and Enrique Hernández both made quick outs, but then chaos ensued, starting with a four-pitch walk by MJ Melendez. Emmanuel Rivera then scorched a ground ball at 106.1 mph into left field, setting up a run scoring opportunity for Javier Báez.
Báez had struggled mightily in the previous two games. He committed the error on Jose Altuve’s game-opening groundball, kick-starting Venezuela’s three-run first inning, and had spent his at-bats chasing breaking ball after breaking ball way out of the zone. Hitting fifth in the lineup, Báez was going to be relied on as a run creator. After taking a slider outside to start the at-bat, he did just that, sending a blistering line drive down the left field line that just landed fair to drive in Melendez and Rivera and give Puerto Rico a 2–0 lead:
Right after that double, we got a taste of why Báez is called El Mago — The Magician — when he swiped third base on a 1–0 count with Eddie Rosario at the plate. Nobody makes an art form out of the swim slide better than Báez. Sit back and appreciate the near impossible:
Nobody knows how he does it, but that’s why Báez has his nickname. Last WBC, we got him applying a sensational no-look tag on the heels of Yadier Molina’s perfect throw to nail Nelson Cruz attempting to swipe second; this year, we have another beautiful swim slide. Rosario didn’t let this it to waste, knocking in Báez with a 405-foot double off the base of the center field wall to give Puerto Rico a 3–0 lead.
That was more than enough for De León. In the top of the second, he induced four swinging strikes on his sinker, including three against Alex Dickerson. Israel’s hitters couldn’t handle the pitch all night: de León threw 44 sinkers in total and earned 15 called strikes and whiffs on it. As he churned through the lineup the first time through the order, he leaned on that sinker to do everything for him, both setting up and finishing off hitters with it. After the game, he credited Martín Maldonado’s pitch calling, noting that he didn’t shake off the veteran once the entire game. Maldonado had a plan to attack hitters with the sinker the first time through the order if De León could keep executing the pitch. And as the game progressed, he switched to more and more changeups and sliders to keep Israel’s hitters on their toes. All night, De León executed whatever Maldonado threw down for him.
In the bottom of the second, Hernández added to the onslaught with a double to score an additional two runs with no outs. Two batters later, Rivera punched a triple into the right-center gap to make it 6–0. The Diamondbacks third baseman has been solid so far as Puerto Rico’s unexpected cleanup hitter and at the hot corner. In the weeks leading up to the tournament, the expectation was that Jose Miranda and Carlos Correa would fill out Puerto Rico’s infield alongside Lindor and Báez. But with both Twins hitters bowing out of the tournament, Rivera was inserted into the starting lineup with the task of following the team’s three best hitters. So far, he has four hits in 11 at-bats with four RBI and two runs scored to go along with clean defense. Given a challenging opportunity, he has made the very most of it.
De León’s first big challenge came in the fourth, with the top of Israel’s lineup coming up a second time, led by their best hitters in Joc Pederson, Zack Gelof, and Matt Mervis. But he needed only eight pitches to breeze by them. Against Pederson, he switched up his sequencing and threw three consecutive changeups, with the third yielding a routine groundball to Neftali Soto at first. De León then caught Gelof trying to ambush a sinker and fooled him with the only cutter he threw all night. Looking to crush a high pitch, Mervis swung at two sinkers in the top third of the strike zone, then took a third that ran away and off the plate. That set him up perfectly for the changeup, and while Maldonado helped de León with a perfect frame of a pitch that may have been slightly off the low and outside corner, either way, it was perfectly executed and earned De León a called third strike from home plate umpire Ron Kulpa.
The top of fifth was just as easy as the previous inning, with De León needing just seven pitches to complete it. His offense didn’t go down as easily: Baéz led off the bottom half of the frame with a double; Joey Wagman entered the game in relief and intentionally walked Vimael Machín to get the favorable matchup against Maldonado, but he couldn’t find the zone with his curveball and ended up walking the veteran catcher as well, setting up a bases-loaded opportunity for Lindor. The Mets shortstop fell behind 0–2 but got a hanging curveball in his sweet spot and smacked it off the wall in right-center field, just missing a grand slam:
Lindor’s triple cleared the bases, and as he cruised into third base, he rubbed his luxurious blonde hair while his teammates and fans basked in the moment.
Heading into the sixth up 9–0, de León was still under the WBC’s first-round maximum of 65 pitches, allowing him to return to the mound and continue his perfect game bid. He struck out both Spencer Horwitz and Ty Kelly looking before exiting, one pitch shy of the limit and the owner of the longest perfect game bid by a starter in WBC history. He was serenaded by a roaring Puerto Rican crowd as he exited the game:
As a former top prospect who has battled countless injuries, De León is still looking to find his place in MLB; maybe this outing will help him make the Twins, with whom he signed a minor league deal back in December and joined earlier this spring as a non-roster invitee. But even it doesn’t, he will have a life-long memory that not only means the world to him, but also to a tiny little island whose people eat, sleep, and breathe baseball. His quote after the game says it all:
“I’ve been through so many obstacles in my career, so many things. And to have a moment like this in front of my family, my people, wearing Puerto Rico across my chest makes it a hundred times more special. I’m still walking on cloud nine right now, so it’s a moment I’ll remember forever.”
After De León, Molina went with Yacksel Ríos to close the sixth, Edwin Díaz for the seventh, and Duane Underwood Jr. for the eighth and final inning. Those three pitchers were perfect as well and got one last bit of support from the offense, who closed out the 10–0 win with Hernandez’s single in the bottom of the eighth that scored Maldonado and invoked the mercy rule. It was the second no-hitter in WBC history — the first belongs to Shairon Martis, who threw it for the Netherlands in 2006 — and the only one in which zero runners reached base. And to many Puerto Ricans, myself included, this game means more than you can imagine. That performance by De León and the rest of the team will be spoken about in the Puerto Rican community for as long as baseball is played.
The Pool of Death has been as exciting as advertised so far. Venezuela will look to secure their spot at the top of the pool on Tuesday against Nicaragua; if they win and the Dominican Republic defeats Israel later that night, we will have an incredible rivalry matchup set for Wednesday between the DR and PR. The winner will move on, and the loser will go home. Buckle up, folks; we may have just seen a walk-off perfect game, but we’re just getting to the most thrilling part of the tournament.
MIAMI – It’s unlikely that, in the history of Christopher Columbus High School baseball, it’s ever hosted so many superstars. The Catholic all-boys prep school, located amidst the sprawl of southwest Miami not far from the airport and which counts Jon Jay and White Sox manager Pedro Grifol among its notable alumni, has won a pair of state championships and was ranked No. 1 in the country back in 2009. But on Sunday afternoon, its field and gym were the practice space of choice for the Dominican Republic’s World Baseball Classic squad, and its enviable, mind-boggling collection of All-Stars and future Hall of Famers — baseball’s answer to the Dream Team.
At least, that was the narrative coming into the group stage. The mighty Dominican Republic and its titanic lineup, hard-throwing rotation, and deep bullpen was favored even in the Pool of Death with Puerto Rico and Venezuela. But that was before the Dominicans turned in a listless, uneven effort against Venezuela on Saturday night, stranding runners and squandering opportunities and looking nothing like the Home Run Derby Globetrotters you were hoping for.
The afternoon after that loss to Venezuela, the Dominican team assembled at Christopher Columbus High for an off-day practice — an optional one, said manager Rodney Linares, but one that was fully attended nonetheless. There, he spoke to his players, and they spoke to each other. The message? Be calm. Stay cool. Put the nerves and the frustration of Saturday night behind you. As Linares put it, “Try to control the situation, and don’t let the situation control us.” Read the rest of this entry »
If you had to guess which teams would be doling out eight-year deals this winter, the Nationals probably wouldn’t have made the top of your list. Yet on Friday evening, they came to terms on just that: an eight-year extension. The recipient, equally surprising: Keibert Ruiz. The pact is worth $50 million and comes with two club options that could keep the young catcher in Washington through 2032. Full financial terms of the contract have yet to be revealed, but it comes with a signing bonus and is reportedly front-loaded, giving Ruiz a substantial raise for the upcoming season.
In both length and value, this is one of the largest extensions ever given to a player with fewer than two years of service time. Other players to sign similarly large deals with such little MLB experience include Michael Harris II (this past August), Ke’Bryan Hayes (this past April), and Corbin Carroll (this past weekend). Harris and Hayes, though, had longer and/or better track records, and Carroll is an uber-prospect with superstar potential. Ruiz had a fine season in 2022, but he’s yet to demonstrate he can be more than an average player at the big league level. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Toronto Blue Jays. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
After Sunday night’s loss to Mexico, Team USA was facing down — to quote Thomas Paine — the times that try men’s souls. But Monday brought new life; Great Britain’s upset win over Colombia put the Americans’ destiny back in their own hands, and in the nightcap the United States bludgeoned Canada with nine first-inning runs en route to a 12-1 mercy rule win.
Team USA is idle on Tuesday, but will advance with a win over Colombia on Wednesday. With a win and a Mexico loss in either of its two remaining games, Team USA will win the pool. If Mexico and the U.S. both win out, Mexico will win the group.
For fans of chaos, the dreaded five-team tiebreaker scenario is still on the table under a specific set of circumstances:
How to Get to Pool C’s Tiebreaker Armageddon
Home Team
Away Team
Colombia
Canada
Mexico
Great Britain
Canada
Mexico
Colombia
United States
Winning team in red
If that happens, be prepared to laugh and/or cry and/or pray.
We’ve reached the point in the offseason when it’s time for one of my favorite/most hated preseason traditions: my attempt to predict breakouts and busts. Since those are beyond what a projection system suggests are naturally going to be low-probability outcomes, there’s a high probability of me looking pretty silly — something writers generally try to avoid. Let’s start by looking back at how smart I was last year…or how foolish:
Thank goodness I had a weaker year than average overall, as I included a few of my favorite players in the mix! Being right for breakouts is a lot of fun, but being right on the busts is a bit depressing, a definite sign that I’ve mellowed as I enter middle age. Trout’s contact rate didn’t bounce back, and his BABIP crashed by well over 100 points, but his newfound grounder proclivity disappeared, and the power boost more than compensated for an OBP nearly 50 points below his career average. Riley’s BABIP also predictably fell, but he hit the ball harder and became a more well-rounded hitter, crushing most pitches instead of predominantly fastballs. Most of the rest came in at the middle-third of the ZiPS projections, which is a victory for the computer rather than me — all that is except for Schwindel, who didn’t just regress toward the mean; he lapped it.
Now, let’s turn to this year’s picks, as I throw myself upon the tender mercies of fortune. Read the rest of this entry »
There are a handful of things that I consider pillars of my personality and spirit. Baseball, of course, is one of them. That’s likely easy to infer, but there are a few others that you might not know about. Since I was a kid, what I’ve put on my feet has meant a lot to me. No matter where I was going, I wanted to rock fresh kicks. This also meant that players with signature cleats and/or sneakers meant a lot to me, too. I wore Ken Griffey Jr.’s Air Griffey Max 1s the second my feet were big enough to fit into a kid’s pair. Unfortunately, in the last decade or so, baseball players haven’t inspired as prominent a line of footwear as Griffey did. But I think there is a chance for that to change.
In January, baseball’s most iconic star, Shohei Ohtani, signed a multi-year footwear and apparel deal with New Balance. The numbers around the deal still aren’t clear, but it will be a long-term partnership with custom apparel, cleats, and sneakers. What I want to address is the potential impact of this deal and how it can serve as an entry point for growing the culture of baseball by stretching it beyond the diamond and onto people’s feet. Other prominent players, like Aaron Judge and Mike Trout, have footwear and apparel deals of their own, but none has stomped a footprint on sneaker and fashion culture like Griffey did when his first shoe dropped in 1996 at the peak of his stardom.
The drop of the Air Max Griffey 1 was strategic and savvy. In Complex’s account of Griffey’s impact on this era of sneaker and baseball history, they noted that Griffey and Nike’s goal for the shoe was to be multipurpose and fashionable. Specifically, Griffey himself demanded the shoes be wearable with jeans. Why was that? Well, of course that would mean they were more than just an athletic shoe — you can fit them up too. That plan worked out well for Griffey and Nike, who were able to carve out additional space in the sneaker market to go along with the Jordan line and other Nike sponsored basketball players. With the help of the company’s marketing push and its desire to make the most of Griffey’s stardom, an iconic sneaker was created that is still being worn over 20 years after its original release. This helped Griffey cement the leap from being a baseball and sports icon to a cultural one. New Balance and Ohtani could make the most of their partnership if they used this approach to their advantage and applied it to their own plans for Ohtani’s market appeal. Read the rest of this entry »
Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and Happy Pi Day, folks! I’m in the middle of a snowstorm with a sick kiddo underfoot and a contractor overstaying his welcome, but we’re gonna try to get this one in.
