As the Blue Jays attempt to build upon last year’s 92-win season — their best since 2015 in terms of won-loss record — they’ve locked up one of their young, homegrown stars. Earlier this week, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson Smith reported that the team had agreed to a multiyear extension with Bo Bichette, thereby avoiding what could have been a contentious arbitration hearing. The terms of the deal were unclear at the time, but on Thursday, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that Bichette will receive a three-year, $33.6 million guarantee, with escalators and incentives that can increase the total value of the deal to as much as $40.65 million.

Via the Associated Press, Bichette is guaranteed $6.1 million this year ($3.25 million as a signing bonus and $2.85 million in salary) and then $11 million in 2024 and $16.5 million in ’25. Winning an MVP award would increase his next salary by $2.25 million, while finishing second or third would add $1.25 million, and finishing fourth or fifth would add $250,000. The extension buys out all three of his arbitration years — his age-25 through 27 seasons — without delaying his free agency, as he enters 2023 with three years and 63 days of service time. Without the deal, he and the Blue Jays would have headed into arbitration with the two sides as far apart as any in the majors this year. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the $2.5 million gap between the filings of Bichette ($7.5 million) and the Blue Jays ($5 million) matched that of the Astros and Kyle Tucker; Houston won that hearing on Thursday.

Bichette is coming off a very good season, albeit something of an inconsistent one. He set a full-season high with a 129 wRC+ via a .290/.333/.469 line with 24 homers and 13 steals. His 4.5 WAR tied with Corey Seager for 14th in the American League and second among AL shortstops behind Xander Bogaerts, 0.1 WAR ahead of Carlos Correa. That said, his season was an uneven one that exposed concerns in several areas of his game. He hit just .213/.237/.298 (50 wRC+) in April and .257/.302/.418 (105 wRC+) through the first half — missing the AL All-Star team where he made it in 2021 — before batting .337/.378/.543 (163 wRC+) in the second half, capped by a .406/.444/.662 (217 wRC+) September. Fourteen of his 24 homers came before the break, but so did 100 of his 165 strikeouts; he trimmed his K% from 24.3% before the break to 19.2% after. Read the rest of this entry »

Heston Kjerstad’s path to the big leagues began with a serious speed bump. Shortly after being taken second overall by the Orioles in the 2020 draft out of the University of Arkansas, the left-handed-hitting outfielder was diagnosed with myocarditis. He has since fully recovered, but because of a high-grade hamstring injury incurred last spring, he wasn’t able to make his professional debut until June. He didn’t forget how to hit during the long layoff. In 284 plate appearances between Low-A Delmarva and High-A Aberdeen, Kjerstad slashed .309/.394/.457 with a 135 wRC+. Moreover, he proceeded to earn MVP honors in the Arizona Fall League by pummeling pitchers to the tune of a 1.007 OPS.

No. 7 in a loaded Baltimore Orioles system, Kjerstad will celebrate his 24th birthday on Sunday. He talked hitting during his stint in the AFL.

———

David Laurila: Tell me about your progression as a hitter. You were obviously out of action with the health issue for some time.

Heston Kjerstad: “You know, it’s part of the game. Everybody misses time here and there, but you’ve done it for so long and practiced it so much that while there is a little rust to be knocked off, it’s going to come back to you. And honestly, there are some things you learn from being away from the game, and you apply them once you are back.” Read the rest of this entry »

I’m gonna start this one with a hot take: superstars can be boring. Before the pitchforks come out, let me explain myself. I love it just as much as everyone else when Aaron Judge obliterates second-deck homers, Jacob deGrom throws triple digits with ease, or Shohei Ohtani, well, does both. But the way star players contribute to their teams is quite predictable. Provided he’s healthy, Mike Trout’s name will be somewhere on the top third of the lineup card with a little number eight on the position column 155 times a year. Manager Phil Nevin doesn’t have to make any difficult decisions about when or where to start him.

But for most fans, the base unit of their baseball viewing experience is a team, rather than an individual player. The average Hennepin County resident would probably say they’re a Twins fan rather than characterize themselves as a Carlos Correa or Byron Buxton supporter. Often times, the same principle is true of baseball analysis. Sure, we write a lot about single players, but individuals don’t play in a vacuum. My favorite part of every free-agent signing to write is about how a new player fits into the roster they’ve just joined, and WAR, possibly the most referenced metric on this site, is literally an estimation of how much a team victories a given player adds. Heck, we had 58 people comment on a piece about projected team standings even before the majority of free agents had signed.

So, back to my original thesis. The game’s best players are incredibly awe-inspiring in what they can do on the field, but we don’t get to think about the role in which they’re best used, because that role is just “all the time”. Earlier this week, I wrote about Dylan Moore, who signed a three-year extension with Seattle. He’s not the most exciting player to write about as an individual; he doesn’t have monster exit velocities or dominate the contact leaderboards. What he does do, though, is patch about ten holes the Mariners have or may have in the future due to platoon issues, defensive limitations, or injuries. Seattle’s front office realized that a single non-starting player could be the solution to many team-specific problems and gave Moore a small pile of money to remain in the Pacific Northwest for the foreseeable future. Moore was fun to write and think about because of the specific ways in which he complements the team around him, and I like this type of analysis because it’s much more unique to each individual player and their team.

It’s time we get to the subject of this piece. In my Moore article, I found that nearly half of his plate appearances came against left-handed pitching, which placed fourth among righty hitters. The man who ranked first? Austin Slater of the Giants. An up/down bench outfielder for his first three years in the league, he earned a full-time roster spot in 2020 and has made the most of it despite his non-starting role, amassing 4.6 WAR in 735 plate appearances (3.8 WAR/600 PA). While he’s appeared in at least 125 games in each of the last two seasons, he’s only made 116 starts. But starting the game on the bench hasn’t seemed to affect his performance, with a 118 wRC+ during that time. Read the rest of this entry »

The 2023 ZiPS projections have all been incorporated into the site, and while there will be some additions (platoon splits), changes (there’s a weird RBI bug affecting a handful of very poor minor league hitters) and updates to come, the player pages now contain the projections for the upcoming season. Our Depth Charts also reflect ZiPS along with Steamer, enabling David Appelman to crank up all the dials and flick all the switches, and you to blame me as well as Steamer when a team’s projection doesn’t look right to you!

Spring doesn’t actually start in the Northern Hemisphere until March 20 this year, but the real spring, baseball’s spring training, kicks off in a week when pitchers and catchers report. While it’s unlikely that these are the precise rosters that will eventually start playing exhibition games, the vast majority of the significant shifts in player talent have already happened.

So where do we stand?

Naturally, I used the ZiPS projection system to get the latest run of team win totals. Borrowing from my piece on the American League, the methodology I’m using here isn’t identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, meaning there will naturally be some important differences in the results. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th-percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as a jumping off point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion — the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). Read the rest of this entry »

Be honest: you didn’t think A.J. Preller was done with headline-making this offseason, did you? The Padres have built a team through outrageous swings — trades that no one else in baseball would attempt and free-agent signings that make opposing teams whine with envy. After signing Xander Bogaerts earlier this offseason, though, it seemed like even Preller might be out of moves. There was no one left to sign, no one left to trade for.

The joke’s on us, though, because the Padres found a new way to make news: they signed Yu Darvish to a six-year extension worth $108 million, as MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reported. The deal replaces the final year of his existing contract, which would have ended after this year. Instead of hitting free agency, Darvish will remain a Padre, presumably for life at this point.

Darvish has long been one of my favorite pitchers thanks in large part to his dizzying array of pitches. He threw six different ones at least 5% of the time last year and even dabbled with two more. Six pitches, six years: I know an article setup when I see one. If you’ll indulge me in some gratuitous gif-posting, I’ll walk you through six ways to think about this contract. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 1011

This week, we sit down with one of the bright baseball minds in Baltimore before getting our lead prospect analyst’s backstory.

• At the top of the show, David Laurila welcomes Sig Mejdal, vice president and assistant general manager of the Baltimore Orioles. Mejdal tells us about breaking into baseball with the Cardinals, and what his day-to-day with Mike Elias and former podcast guest Eve Rosenbaum is like. Mejdal also shares his thoughts on analytics and data, and what his team of analysts are working on in Baltimore. Finally, David asks about spending a season in the minors, seeing Albert Pujols in his prime, and how difficult it was to trade Trey Mancini. [3:32]
• After that, Ben Clemens is joined by Eric Longenhagen for the latest edition of FanGraphs Backstories. Eric tells us about interning with his hometown IronPigs, taking up writing because he got mono, working at Baseball Info Solutions, and eventually ending up at FanGraphs. Ben also asks Eric about his favorite baseball memories, which include dressing up as Mark McGwire for Halloween and going to Veterans Stadium for his first major league game. The duo also discuss the Super Bowl being in Arizona and how going to Eagles training camp had an impact on Eric’s path. [24:20]

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 1 hour 15 minute play time.)

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For the past two weeks, the American sports landscape has been held in the thrall of the Super Bowl. It’s secular American Christmas. The event so indelibly planted in our cultural consciousness advertisers get around the trademark by calling it “the Big Game,” and everyone knows what they mean. The Chiefs and the Eagles (Go Birds!) testing their mettle for 60 minutes on the largest stage our country has to offer (interrupted periodically by commercials and musical interludes).

No, I haven’t suffered some kind of episode and forgotten that this site is devoted entirely to a different sport. Because, you see, if you watch the Super Bowl you’ll get to see some baseball players: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Eagles receiver A.J. Brown.

Mahomes affinity for baseball is well known, given that he is 1) one of the most famous athletes in the country 2) a minority owner of the Kansas City Royals and 3) the son and namesake of an 11-year major league veteran. In fact, two of the Chiefs’ three quarterbacks are sons of 11-year big league veterans; third-stringer Shane Buechele is the son of former Rangers and Cubs third baseman Steve. (Unfortunately, I don’t know what Chad Henne’s father’s profession is.) Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Yu Darvish’s extension, then continue their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Los Angeles Angels (10:11) with The Athletic’s Sam Blum and the Boston Red Sox (59:32) with The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier, plus a Past Blast (1:47:29) from 1967, an impromptu chat between Ben and former MLB umpire Joe West about whether/why West edited his own Wikipedia page (1:50:12), and a few follow-ups (2:11:42).

Audio intro: Lord Huron, “Not Dead Yet”
Audio interstitial: The Thrills, “This Year”
Audio outro: Frank Sinatra, “Maybe This Time”

Link to MLBTR on Darvish
Link to MLBTR on Yamamoto
Link to Baumann on FA pitchers
Link to FG team projections
Link to payroll rankings
Link to Angels offseason tracker
Link to Angels depth chart
Link to Sam on Neto
Link to Sam’s previous EW episode
Link to Petriello on the Angels
Link to Heyman on Moreno
Link to Sam’s author archive
Link to Red Sox offseason tracker
Link to Red Sox depth chart
Link to Alex’s author archive
Link to Alex on Devers
Link to Alex on the bullpen
Link to Alex on Yoshida
Link to Eno on the volatile Sox
Link to Homegrown
Link to 1967 article source
Link to other 1967 article source
Link to Stanky Draft EW episode
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Joe West Reddit thread
Link to West’s Wikipedia page
Link to Crewchief22 talk page
Link to Carew ejection story
Link to NFLPA logo
Link to baseball exceptionalism wiki
Link to guest/predictions spreadsheet
Link to prediction averages spreadsheet

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There’s a simple maxim in the entertainment business, which we here at FanGraphs subscribe to: give the people what they want. You called for it (implicitly), and now you’re getting it: more discussion of the Cole Irvin trade! And hey, if that’s not what you want, you should have somehow broadcast your thoughts to me more clearly.

Here’s the overarching concept of today’s article: the total-’em-up-and-compare method of analyzing trades doesn’t really work, and in fact it hasn’t really worked for a while. I’ve got some criticisms of WAR-to-money conversions in here, too, and a general questioning of the way people apply the nebulous concept of surplus value to baseball players. Let’s get right into it.

In the comments to the Irvin piece, someone mentioned an angle that I purposefully ignored in my analysis: adding up Irvin’s projected team-controllable WAR and comparing it to the monetary prospect values Craig Edwards produced a few years ago. Subject to a few assumptions, that accounting of the trade favors the Orioles by a huge margin. Prospects in the 40+ FV tier, like Darell Hernaiz, don’t usually work out. Irvin will almost certainly be better than replacement level. If you’re intent on slapping a universal dollar figure on all players based on that, the Orioles almost can’t lose in this trade.

That’s not really how it works in real life, though. Teams don’t have a department that inputs projections, turns everything into some calculation of value measured by dollars, and then pursues trades and acquisitions based on the cold hard reality of that math and nothing else. The Irvin trade reflects this in a few ways, so let’s talk about them. Read the rest of this entry »

The beginning of spring training is just a week away, and the majority of the big moves this offseason have already happened. There are a few free agents left looking for a new home, but for the most part, teams have set their spring rosters and are looking forward to sifting through their guys as they work toward Opening Day. Now that the ZiPS projections have been plugged into the site and the hot stove is set to a preseason simmer, I thought it would be a good time to revisit these power rankings to check in on how teams did over the offseason. You could think of the Delta column as a rough grade, since it reflects the change in ranking from the last time these ran in mid-November.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are now powered by our blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections. I’ve also used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections as the defensive component for each team in lieu of RAA. Read the rest of this entry »