For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the Washington Nationals.

Batters

If there’s any silver lining for a team that will likely be at the bottom of the division, it’s that this is a fairly decent floor for a last-place squad, unless it faces particularly bad injury luck. There are no projected stars remaining anywhere on the roster, but the Nationals do have a pretty good front line of fringe options at most positions. When we mash-up the ZiPS projections and the current iteration of the depth charts, no individual position combines for three wins, but no position comes in at under a win either. Players like Victor Robles, Joey Meneses, and Jeimer Candelario may not have exciting upside, but they’re at least major league players. I’d be midly surprised to see Washington lose 107 games, which it did last season even with a half-season from Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

ZiPS still sees CJ Abrams as risky and is just about out of hope for Carter Kieboom. There’s a bright spot in the form of Jake Alu, who destroyed pitchers in the high minors, even when you take the 2022 helium out of those numbers in the form of a translation. ZiPS doesn’t see him being a near-star offensive player, but the probabilistic measure I use had him as one of the best defensive minor league players; he’s listed as +5 runs at third base, and if ZiPS had been as confident about the translated defense estimate as it is about MLB defensive measures, the projection would actually be +12. Meneses gets a better projection than similar veteran surprise Frank Schwindel got after 2021, and ZiPS sees Alex Call as a legitimate stopgap corner outfielder of the Anthony Santander variety. Abrams, along with Keibert Ruiz and Luis García, has significant upside, and it wouldn’t take much to see any of these projections blow up in a positive way with some real steps forwards from these youngsters. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Carlos Beltrán was the quintessential five-tool player, a switch-hitting center fielder who harnessed his physical talents and became a superstar. Aided by a high baseball IQ that was essentially his sixth tool, he spent 20 seasons in the majors, making nine All-Star teams, winning three Gold Gloves, helping five different franchises reach the playoffs, and putting together some of the most dominant stretches in postseason history once he got there. At the end of his career, he helped the Astros win a championship.

Drafted out of Puerto Rico by the Royals, Beltrán didn’t truly thrive until he was traded away. He spent the heart of his career in New York, first with the Mets — on what was at the time the largest free-agent contract in team history — and later the Yankees. He endured his ups and downs in the Big Apple and elsewhere, including his share of injuries. Had he not missed substantial portions of three seasons, he might well have reached 3,000 hits, but even as it is, he put up impressive, Cooperstown-caliber career numbers. Not only is he one of just eight players with 300 homers and 300 stolen bases, but he also owns the highest stolen base success rate (86.4%) of any player with at least 200 attempts.

Alas, two years after Beltrán’s career ended, he was identified as the player at the center of the biggest baseball scandal in a generation: the Astros’ illegal use of video replay to steal opponents’ signs in 2017 and ’18. He was “the godfather of the whole program” in the words of Tom Koch-Weser, the team’s director of advance information, and the only player identified in commissioner Rob Manfred’s January 2020 report. But between that report and additional reporting by the Wall Street Journal, it seems apparent that the whole team, including manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow, was well aware of the system and didn’t stop him or his co-conspirators. In that light, it’s worth wondering about the easy narrative that has left Beltrán holding the bag; Hinch hardly had to break stride in getting another managerial job once his suspension ended. While Beltrán was not disciplined by the league, the fallout cost him his job as manager of the Mets before he could even oversee a game, and he has yet to get another opportunity.

Will Beltrán’s involvement in sign stealing cost him a berth in Cooperstown, the way allegations concerning performance-enhancing drugs have for a handful of players with otherwise Hallworthy numbers? At the very least it appears likely to keep him from getting elected this year. What remains to be seen is whether voters treat him like Rafael Palmeiro and banish him for a big mistake (a positive PED test) in the final season of an otherwise impressive career, or like Roberto Alomar and withhold the honor of first-ballot induction for an out-of-character incident (spitting at an umpire) before giving him his due. Read the rest of this entry »

After overcoming a slow start and firing manager Joe Girardi, the Phillies made it all the way to the World Series for the first time since 2009. On Monday, they took a significant step toward improving their chances of returning, and of upgrading their oft-shaky defense, signing shortstop Trea Turner to an 11-year, $300 million deal, one that includes a full no-trade clause.

Turner, who turned 29 on June 30, spent the past season and a half with the Dodgers after coming over from the Nationals in the 2021 trade deadline blockbuster that also brought Max Scherzer to Los Angeles. In 2022, he earned All-Star honors for the second time, batting .298/.343/.466 (128 wRC+) with 21 homers, 27 steals (in 30 attempts), and 6.3 WAR. He played 160 games and led the NL in plate appearances (708) and at-bats (652) and ranked fourth in steals.

While Turner’s offensive performance represented a dip from his 2021, when he won the NL batting title (.328/.375/.536, 142 wRC+), led the league in steals (32), and ranked third in WAR (6.8), he was still an impressive ninth in the last of those categories in ’22. Bolstered by average defense at shortstop — no small accomplishment or attraction for a team that has employed Didi Gregorius in the recent past — he was third in WAR among shortstops behind Francisco Lindor (6.8) and fellow free agent Dansby Swanson (6.4), but his longer track record for strong production than Swanson, and the added dimension of his speed, had to make him the more attractive of the two for a long-term deal. Toward that end, it’s worth noting that Turner placed second on our Top 50 Free Agents list below only Aaron Judge, one spot ahead of Carlos Correa, four ahead of Xander Bogaerts, and six ahead of Swanson.

The size of Turner’s contract outdid both our median crowdsource estimate (seven years, $210 million) and that of listmaker Ben Clemens (nine years, $288 million), a common theme from among the early deals so far. That should’t surprise us within an industry that appears to have set a record in revenues (just shy of $11 billion) and that just got a $900 million windfall ($30 million per team) from MLB selling its remaining 15% stake in the BAMTech streaming platform to Disney. Read the rest of this entry »

Just three days ago, there was gnashing of teeth and rending of garments in the blue-and-orange tinted sectors of the New York metropolitan area. Jacob deGrom, light of the world, oppressor of batters, had taken the money and run to Texas. This was a black eye for the conspicuously moneyed regime of hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen, who’d promised to do for the Mets what Gulf state sovereign wealth funds are doing for European soccer teams. Instead, he’d been outbid for the best pitcher in baseball, a homegrown superstar the likes of which the Mets hadn’t produced since… is it sacrilegious to say Tom Seaver?

Fear not, because the Mets have secured a hell of a fallback option. On Sunday night, former Met Carlos Baerga announced on Instagram — because sure, why not? “Carlos Baerga’s Instagram” is my favorite Bo Burnham song — that Justin Verlander was signing with the Mets for two years and $86.8 million, with a mutual option for a third year. On Monday morning, ESPN’s leading scoop man, Jeff Passan, reported substantially similar news: Verlander to New York for two years and $86 million, with a vesting option for 2025.

Depending on how you feel about Carlos Rodón, there are either two or three legitimate difference-making no. 1 starters in this year’s free-agent class. (And even a Rodón superfan such as myself will acknowledge that deGrom and Verlander are a step above.) The Mets lost one but gained another. Read the rest of this entry »

Move over, Jacob deGrom; this was the best free-agent deal of last week:

Right-handed reliever Chris Martin and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a two-year, $17.5 million contract, pending physical, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. Martin, 36, was magnificent for the Dodgers after a deadline trade and parlayed it into a multiyear deal.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 2, 2022

I kid, but only sort of! Obviously, deGrom is a phenomenal pitcher. The Rangers did well to court him. And this isn’t me advocating for the importance of “surplus value” or whatever vague finance jargon gets thrown around these days. I just really like Chris Martin, and I also think the Red Sox got a ton of bang for their buck for signing him.

There are also things not to like about Martin, at least on the surface. If people objected to a 35-year-old first baseman getting three years, imagine their discomfort at the sight of a 36-year-old reliever getting two years. His fastball velocity is pedestrian by modern standards, his pitch movement data isn’t eye-popping, and he doesn’t throw from an unorthodox angle to compensate. In 2021, Martin’s strikeout rate plummeted to 18%, and it’s worrisome to think he could return to such a dramatic low. When the risks are lined up like this, a two-year pact comes off as unappealing. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the San Diego Padres.

Batters

When you look at the Padres’ depth charts, there’s a kind of clarity when trying to decide what the team needs to do this winter. The strengths of the offense are obvious: Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and a healthy Fernando Tatis Jr. enter any season as top-notch MVP contenders. And unlike a certain seraphim-themed organization I won’t name with a few mega-stars at the top, there isn’t a huge drop-off to the next tier, whether it’s Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, or Trent Grisham after you’ve threatened him with torture if he tries to bunt for a hit at an awkward moment.

The team’s needs here are also quite obvious; I can’t imagine the Padres actually enter the season with Taylor Kohlwey and José Azocar splitting playing time in left field. The problem is, I also couldn’t imagine Nomar Mazara actually getting 41 starts in 2022, but that’s just what he did.

San Diego would also benefit from some figuring out what to do about Tatis’ position long-term. Right now, we have him splitting time in several places, but I think that the Padres are best served by figuring out whether Cronenworth or Kim are the answer at second, determine where they can put Tatis, and then find a full-time upgrade over Eguy Rosario or Brandon Dixon, whom I see more as complementary talent.

Another thing that is obvious here is that the Padres do need to spend some time this winter fattening up their organizational depth. The high minors are fairly empty at the moment — a combination of graduating talent, traded talent, and a bunch of minor league veterans now in free agency or in other organizations. Most of the players here who look like “break in case of fire” emergency options like C.J. Hinojosa or Domingo Leyba are no longer in the organization. This isn’t necessarily an expensive thing to do, either, and adding a left fielder and a couple of pitchers wouldn’t hinder this. Read the rest of this entry »

During the playoffs, Nick Castellanos made a few noteworthy catches, darting and diving to his left. I wondered whether the Phillies’ right fielder, with his mitt on his left hand, was alone in relishing plays to his gloveside. After all, Castellanos didn’t have to reach across his body to make the catch when moving in this direction. I also wondered what, if any, implications this would have on outfield positioning and alignment.

In terms of directional Outs Above Average (OAA), my findings demonstrated that right-handed outfielders actually performed marginally better moving to their armside than their gloveside. But they were considerably stronger to their left than left-handers, who in turn performed much better to their own gloveside. If that word salad confused you, not to worry. These numbers might be easier to digest:

Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t bring this up very often, but before I wrote here, I had a job trading interest rates. I won’t bore you with the technical details, but I’ve been drawing on that experience a lot recently in thinking about how teams operate when signing free agents, so I thought I’d lay out my recent thoughts here. None of this is quite fully formed yet, but I think I’m on the way there, and I’d love to hear some feedback and see if I can better formulate my point as a result.

Speaking broadly, there are two main ways to get a return on your investment in finance. First, you could lean into the efficiency of the market. You’ve probably never heard of most of the companies that do this: Virtu, DRW, Jump, Hudson River, Susquehanna, Two Sigma. They’re all major players with virtually no broader name recognition. They’re broadly considered “high-frequency traders,” which means they buy and sell an absolutely massive number of stocks and bonds every day, trying to make a tiny profit on each one.

This is the “efficient market” you learned about if you took an economics class in college. If you’re trying to buy one share of a stock and I’m trying to sell one, a high-frequency trader will hope to sell to you at $100.00, buy from me at $99.99, and pocket the penny of difference. Do that a billion times, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money. It’s more complex than that — obviously, given the amount of brain and computing power all of these companies exert — but you can broadly think of them as profiting because there’s a well-accepted price for any given security at any given time, which means they can make money off of tiny deviations from that fair price. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball’s Winter Meetings are in full swing! Now is time to make some trades. Now is the time to sign some free agents. You and I are going to put together a team. What should our team look like? Don’t worry. I’ve already decided for us.

In 2022, Mets batters got hit by 112 pitches, setting a new single-season major league record. Ever since they broke the record, I’ve been wondering how many HBP a team could rack up if they made it their sole mission. That’s our challenge.

We’ll be building our roster using Steamer projections for the 2023 season, and we’ll assemble a lineup with the goal of obliterating the Mets’ record. We’re going to get hit often and we’re going to get hit with style. To get us in the spirit of the enterprise, I’ve named our new team the Cooperstown Contusions. Before you ask, yes, our mascot will be an anthropomorphic bruise:

Read the rest of this entry »