Hunter Mense had some talented teammates during his relatively brief playing career. None were more talented than a teenager who went by one of his middle names. Now the assistant hitting coach for the Toronto Blue Jays, Mense played alongside Giancarlo Cruz Michael Stanton during their time together as Florida Marlins farmhands.

“I knew him as Mike,” Mense said of the the 2022 All-Star Game MVP, who began going by his given first name after reaching the big leagues. “I remember reading about, and him telling me that he could have played D1 basketball or D1 football. He looked more like a D1 football player than he’s ever looked like a baseball player.”

It goes without saying that the Brobdingnagian superstar is a stupendously good baseball player. According to Mense, who doubles as Toronto’s minor-league hitting coordinator, Stanton’s work ethic was off the charts. Wanting to improve defensively, the 6-foot-6, 245-pound outfielder would often “drag a coach out to the field” and have him hit balls in his dirction before batting practice.

Not surprisingly, Stanton also went the extra mile as a hitter. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley wrap up the podcast’s 10th anniversary week by doing a dozen listener-inspired Stat Blasts and then (51:53) talking to 42-year-old Red Sox starter and podcast legend Rich Hill about how the game and his game have evolved over his long career, plus (1:31:18) a Past Blast from 1880/postscript.

Audio intro: Silk Sonic, “Blast Off”
Audio interstitial 1: Levon Helm, “The Mountain”
Audio interstitial 2: Esther Rose, “Mountaintop”
Audio outro: This is the Kit, “Keep Going”

Link to Stathead
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to split doubleheaders sheet
Link to zero-RBI records sheet
Link to Ben on Joseph in 2016
Link to non-hit walkoffs sheet
Link to bases-clearing PA sheet
Link to most players managed sheet
Link to no-LOB shutouts list
Link to HR vs. same pitchers sheet
Link to country debuts sheet
Link to Madris story
Link to saves vs. former teams sheet
Link to Kimbrel vs. Jansen story
Link to Dunn/Thome cycle leaders
Link to Stat Blasts on the EW wiki
Link to Hill on the EW wiki
Link to article on Hill’s handedness
Link to Rosenthal signing news
Link to Walsh/Epstein saying
Link to listener emails database
Link to 10th anniversary shirt
Link to all shirts
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1880 story source 1
Link to 1880 story source 2
Link to Facebook post about the EW wiki
Link to “How to Help” wiki page

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
Subscribe to Stathead (Code: WILD20)
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Below is the last chunk of notes I’ll publish on players taken in the 2022 draft, as it’s time to gear up for the trade deadline while also laying foundation for the 2023 class, the evaluation of which is already underway throughout the industry, with the Cape Cod League, Team USA activity, MLB’s PDP program and other summer showcase ball all having begun. Each of the top 125 picks from the 2022 class has a record with a scouting report over on The Board. Below, I have at least a quick one-sentence scouting blurb on the players selected between picks 125 and 250 overall; for the sake of brevity, players who were on The Board prior to the draft and were picked after 125 are only on The Board rather than appearing here. I also included some players picked beyond 250 overall who I like in the below analysis. The number in parentheses indicates the round in which a player was drafted.

I’ve moved the draft class over to the pro side of The Board so you can see where each org’s new players fall within the system; I have also made some low-hanging fruit changes to the pro lists, including the Top 100. I’ll have more details on the pro changes early next week, but for now you can look at who has a “trend” arrow to see where I’ve made tweaks. Also remember that the Farm System rankings update live, and that this draft class is now factoring into those. There are some players taken late on Day Three (Brady Neal, Andrew Walters, etc.) who I don’t think will sign. Who I anticipate will sign is at my discretion (I’m basically assuming everyone through round 11 will); if I’m wrong on deadline day, I’ll remove or add the player(s) who end up surprising us. Now on to my notes. Read the rest of this entry »

With the All-Star break in the rear-view mirror, the eyes of the baseball world turn to the upcoming trade deadline, which is now less than two weeks away. Juan Soto’s sudden availability is dominating the headlines, pushing the rest of the field to the back burner with the focus on the possible blockbuster deal. Still, for the majority of teams who are priced out of the Soto sweepstakes, there’s no shortage of interesting trade candidates to go after over the next few weeks.

For teams looking for pitching help, the top option on the market is almost certainly Luis Castillo. A pair of shoulder injuries to the two other top targets has thrown a wrench into the market; Frankie Montas threw three innings yesterday in his first start since July 3, and Tyler Mahle is scheduled to make his first start off the IL on Sunday. It’s certainly possible either Montas or Mahle (or both) will be dealt in the next few weeks, but teams will understandably be more cautious with them.

Castillo dealt with his own shoulder injury this spring which held him back from making his season debut until May. He wasn’t all that sharp through his first four starts, but he’s turned it on since then, averaging more than six innings per start since and allowing just three total runs across his last four turns. During this recent hot streak, he’s struck out 33 batters (a 30.8% strikeout rate) in 27 innings. In his final start before the midseason break, Castillo held the Yankees to a single run in seven innings, allowing two hits and four walks and striking out eight.

Well known for his fantastic changeup, that pitch hasn’t been nearly as effective as it has been in the past. Over the first five seasons of his career, he ran a 41.2% whiff rate with the pitch, the fifth-highest whiff mark for a changeup during that period. This year, that has fallen to just 25.1%, a career low and the third year in a row it’s dropped. It’s still an effective pitch at limiting hard contact (.305 xwOBAcon), but batters simply aren’t swinging and missing at it as much as they used to.

To combat the slow decline of his changeup, Castillo has turned to his four-seam fastball, throwing his heater more often than his cambio for the first time since 2018:

It’s still a bit of a surprise to see him turn away from his changeup despite its lackluster results this year. That pitch has been such a dominant weapon for him, and he’s relied on it as his primary out pitch for the last three seasons. The biggest reason why he’s turned away from it, though, isn’t because of its loss of effectiveness; it’s because his four-seamer has been better than ever before. Read the rest of this entry »

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing subpar production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have presented it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t be slaves to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a team may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it.

For this series, I’ll go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams who are above .500 or have playoff odds of at least 10.0%. That definition covers 17 teams, all of which have odds above 25% thanks to the new playoff structure (thanks for not saving me any work, Rob Manfred). And while I may mention potential trade targets, I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions than I am the problems, because hey, human nature.

This first installment will cover first basemen. All statistics within this piece are through July 20. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 984

This week on the show, David Laurila welcomes Ellen Adair, actor, MLB Network analyst, host of multiple podcasts and, perhaps most importantly, diehard Philadelphia Phillies fan.

David and Ellen begin by discussing the All-Star Game and Home Run Derby, the controversial uniformity of the uniforms, mic’d up pitchers, and which Phillies were missing from the festivities. We also hear about Dick Allen’s absence from the Hall of Fame, how the Phillies have changed course following the firing of Joe Girardi, and the inner conflict associated with still rooting for a player that has been traded away. Finally, the duo opens a fresh pack of baseball cards and discusses players such as Darick Hall, Bryce Harper, Matt Vierling, and “Big Ed” Delahanty.

To purchase a FanGraphs membership for yourself or as a gift, click here.

To donate to FanGraphs and help us keep things running, click here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @dhhiggins on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 39 minute play time.)

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

After taking their quest to end their 20-year playoff drought down to the final day of the 2021 season, the Mariners had high hopes for this year, but they mostly sputtered during the first two and a half months of the season, squandering an 11-6 start with separate 1-10 and 2-8 skids. Since June 19, when they were 10 games under .500, they’ve caught fire, winning 22 out of 25 games and entering the All-Star break riding a 14-game winning streak, one that has pushed them into the second American League Wild Card slot with a 51-42 record.

The Mariners aren’t the only AL team that will start the second half with renewed optimism. The Orioles, who have lost at least 108 games in a season three times since 2016, their last season above .500, and appeared headed for another triple-digit loss total through the first quarter of the season, went on a 10-game winning streak starting on July 3, briefly nosing them above .500 for the first time this year. They entered the break 46-46, tied with the White Sox at 3.5 games out of the third Wild Card spot.

The two teams have surged while the Blue Jays and Red Sox have stumbled. While Toronto is still clinging to that last Wild Card spot, at the very least the race has become a four-team fight instead of simply a three-team one, with the AL Central’s second- and third-place teams (the Guardians are only two games behind the Twins, the White Sox three) lurking in the weeds as well, and the Orioles at least showing a pulse. A picture is worth a thousand words:

Read the rest of this entry »

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon!

12:02

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s more likely to be traded in the offseason

12:03

Dan Szymborski: I think the Padres might make a push

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Though I think where he ends up depending on how insistent they are in “bundling” Patrick Corbin in

Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Vierling has been a versatile player for the Philadelphia Phillies this season. Primarily a center fielder, the 25-year-old University of Notre Dame product has also seen action in the outfield corners, as well as at first, second, and third base. He’s also capable with the bat. While not yet fully established against big league pitching, Vierling has a 95 wRC+ in 229 plate appearances with the NL East club, plus the potential to produce at a higher level as he matures.

Vierling discussed his simple-meets-cerebral approach, and how he’s evolved since entering pro ball as fifth-round draft pick four years ago, during spring training.

———

David Laurila: Let’s start with one of my favorite Talks Hitting openers. Do you approach hitting as more of an art, or as more of a science?

Matt Vierling: “I would lean more towards art, although I see both sides. It’s definitely science with the mechanics; if you don’t make the right swing, there’s a mechanical reason why. But when you’re up there and in the flow of things, it’s more like an art. I’d have to lean more in that direction.”

Laurila: This is maybe a hard question to answer, but how would you describe your art?

Vierling: “That is a hard one. I guess it would be being in rhythm — a lot of rhythm and a lot of timing. It’s not so much dancing with the pitcher, but kind of just being in his rhythm, being on time with him.” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by FanGraphs lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen to banter about what accounts for the variability in how quickly prospects acclimate to the majors and detecting holes in swings, discuss (10:50) which teams have the prospects to trade for Juan Soto, review (22:59) impressive performances from the Futures Game (including a booming BP by Francisco Álvarez and a record throw by Masyn Winn), recap (31:02) the highs of the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game (with a focus on Julio Rodríguez’s standout Derby and the events’ best promotional moments), then break down the amateur draft, touching on the top three picks, the Orioles’ fruitful draft, the Rangers’ surprising Kumar Rocker selection, why so many sons of major leaguers were drafted, atypical players and potential two-way players, the teams with the best and most perplexing draft classes, the impact of the draft combine, and more, followed (1:45:09) by a Stat Blast on César Hernández and historic power outages, and a Past Blast from 1879.

Audio intro: St. Vincent, “All My Stars Aligned”
Audio outro: David Crosby, “Rodriguez for a Night”

Link to EW guest data
Link to Grant’s tweet
Link to quote about “transition tax”
Link to Ben on minors-to-majors gaps
Link to Ben Clemens on a Soto trade
Link to Baseball Trade Values
Link to MLBTR on Soto trades
Link to R.J. Anderson on Soto trades
Link to story on Soto’s brother
Link to Emma on Dodger Dogs
Link to clip of Cruz’s throw
Link to clip of Winn’s throw
Link to MLB.com ASG game story
Link to MLB.com on Manoah
Link to Joe Posnanski on Manoah
Link to MLB.com on Cortes
Link to Ben on mic’d up players
Link to MLB.com on best ASG moments
Link to The Ringer on the ASG
Link to The Ringer on the HRD
Link to R.J. on the Orioles’ draft
Link to Eric’s first-round recap
Link to Eric’s farm rankings
Link to MLB.com on father-son players
Link to Sawchik on father-son players
Link to R.J. on atypical picks
Link to Cory Lewis story
Link to Jared Beck story
Link to Jurrangelo Cijntje story
Link to Cijntje interview
Link to Reggie Crawford story
Link to Tyler Cleveland story
Link to info on the draft combine
Link to Stathead
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1879 story source
Link to tweet about Ohtani’s ESPYs
Link to Secret Headquarters trailer
Link to Facebook post about the EW wiki
Link to “How to Help” wiki page

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
Subscribe to Stathead (Code: WILD20)
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS