The Philadelphia Phillies needed to get a reliever at the deadline, and they’ve got a doozy. Jhoan Duran, the 27-year-old flamethrower late of the Minnesota Twins, is taking his splinker east. This is a seller’s market for relievers, and Duran is the best one available; certainly the best with any kind of long-term team control remaining, and even more so now that Emmanuel Clase is indisposed.

Given Duran’s prodigious gifts, track record of durability and reliability, and two full remaining arbitration years, the cost is high: rookie right-hander Mick Abel and teenage catcher Eduardo Tait. Abel, the first high school pitcher taken in the 2020 draft, had an unsteady progression through the minors, but has shown flashes in limited major league action. Tait, fresh off a futures game invite, is an 18-year-old catcher and therefore quite raw, but he has the tools to be a good defender with plus, even plus-plus power at the plate.

It’s not Andrew Painter, or even Aidan Miller, but it’s a lot of freight from a not-that-great farm system, in order to get a one-inning reliever. Why would the Phillies do this? Well, not to be impolite, but they’re kind of desperate. Read the rest of this entry »

Having just added Gregory Soto to the bullpen, the Mets are at it again. Less than 90 minutes after his identical twin went to Pittsburgh in the Ke’Bryan Hayes trade, Tyler Rogers is also on the move.

Rogers, with his 1.80 ERA and 2.59 FIP in 50 innings this year for the Giants, has been one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. Still, he’s 34, and a rental, and a major departure from the hard-throwing Adonises the Mets might otherwise have pursued. And yet, David Stearns saw fit to give up Drew Gilbert, Blade Tidwell, and José Buttó — two big-name prospects and a guy who’s been decent in the majors this year — for two months of a guy who throws underhand. Maybe up to three months, if the Mets make the playoffs and stay there for a couple rounds.

It’s not quite that simple. Rogers is good, relievers are expensive now, and fame does not always equal value in the prospect world. Read the rest of this entry »

Winners of three straight games to lift their record to 53-55, the Angels are suddenly acting like contenders. On Wednesday, a day before this year’s trade deadline, the team bolstered its bullpen — which has been one of the majors’ worst this season — by acquiring relievers Andrew Chafin and Luis García from the Nationals in exchange for reliever Jake Eder and first base prospect Sam Brown.

This is the third stop of the season for the well-traveled García, a 38-year-old righty who has pitched for eight different teams — and the third time he’s joined the Angels. Not only did he spend the 2019 season in Anaheim, but he also re-signed with them as a free agent in December 2023 and spent the first four months of ’24 with them. In fact, the Angels traded him to the Red Sox in exchange for four prospects exactly one year ago.

García’s odyssey has since continued. He signed with the Dodgers in mid-February and made 28 appearances totaling 27 1/3 innings before being designated for assignment on June 29 and released on July 4. He missed about a month from late May to late June with a right adductor strain, then returned for two appearances before getting DFA’d. That last outing was abysmal; he allowed three runs in one-third of an inning against the Royals on June 28, capping a stretch in which he gave up nine runs and 19 hits in his final 10 2/3 innings with the Dodgers and ballooning his ERA to 5.27. Four days after being released, he signed with the Nationals. Since then, he’s gone on a roll, allowing just one run and five hits in 10 innings. Despite the contrast in ERAs, García’s 3.57 FIP with the Dodgers and 3.59 FIP with the Nationals suggest he’s basically the same pitcher, a worm-killing machine (54.6% groundball rate overall) who doesn’t miss many bats (19.5% strikeout rate) but keeps the ball in the park (0.48 homers per nine). Read the rest of this entry »

I’m not going to sugarcoat it, it’s been a slow week for deadline trades. The way the haves and have-nots line up this year, impactful additions are few and far between. The teams out of the playoff picture don’t have a lot to give up, and the teams with intriguing rental players are mostly already in the race. But the Pittsburgh Pirates, consistent innovators in ways to do weird things without contending, have entered the fray by trading Ke’Bryan Hayes to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for Taylor Rogers, minor leaguer Sammy Stafura and cash considerations, as Mark Feinsand first reported.

Hayes is about as far from a deadline rental as you can imagine. He signed a lengthy contract extension in April 2022 and is still on that deal; he’s under team control through as long as 2030, in fact, and for cheap! He’s due an average of $7.5 million annually for the next four years, and the pact’s 2030 club option is for just $12 million with a $6 million buyout. That’s the kind of deal that gets teams salivating: long team control at rates that would barely get you a good middle reliever in free agency.

It gets better! Hayes is one of the best defenders in baseball. Since his 2020 debut, he leads all major leaguers with 73 Outs Above Average. Think that’s a fluke? He leads all major leaguers in Defensive Runs Saved – by 28 runs! The distance between him and second place is the same as the distance between second place and 25th. There are plenty of good third basemen with good defensive numbers. Hayes is head and shoulders ahead of all of them, unquestionably, and he’s lapping the third base field again this year, with 15 OAA (second place is four guys tied with four). Read the rest of this entry »

At the outset of Sunday’s Hall of Fame induction ceremony in Cooperstown, chairman of the board Jane Forbes Clark invoked the words of 2005 honoree Ryne Sandberg, who was not among the 52 returning Hall of Famers onstage for the festivities:

“As I have said many times before, the National Baseball Hall of Fame is an extraordinary place, and no one has described our game and what the Hall of Fame means better than Ryne Sandberg, Chicago Cubs legend and member of the Hall of Fame’s Class of 2005,” began Clark. “During his induction speech, he said, ‘The reason I am here, they tell me, is that I played the game a certain way, that I played the game the way it was supposed to be played. I don’t know about that, but I do know this: I had too much respect for the game to play it any other way. And if there is a single reason I am here today, it is because of one word: Respect.'”

As she continued, Clark’s voice audibly cracked, but she pushed through. “There is not a man seated behind me this afternoon who didn’t play the game the same way Ryno did. It is that respect, character, sportsmanship, integrity, and excellence that leads to just one percent of those that have ever played major league baseball to be inducted into the Hall of Fame.”

Her message — which referenced the Hall’s own voting rules, the so-called “character clause” — was evergreen, but the absence of Sandberg, who had attended the last two induction ceremonies, was conspicuous. So was Clark’s display of emotion, and now we know why. Sandberg, who was diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer in January 2024, died on Monday at age 65. Read the rest of this entry »

Happy Wednesday. Would you like some sad news? Are your cheek muscles getting tired from constantly smiling because everything in the world keeps humming along so smoothly? Let’s bring you down with a roundup of star outfielder injury news. We’ll go in ascending order of scariness, so if you don’t feel sufficiently depressed at the beginning, just stick with it. We’ll get you there.

We start in Minnesota, where Byron Buxton is headed to the IL with left ribcage inflammation. Buxton was removed from Saturday’s game after experiencing pain in his ribs while he was running. At the time, the Twins said Buxton would be day-to-day with “left side soreness.” He hasn’t spoken to the press since Friday, so all updates have come from manager Rocco Baldelli. On Saturday, Baldelli told reporters, “We’re just going to get an image tomorrow morning just to see what we’re dealing with. He actually felt it more running than anything else.” The MRI delivered good news, revealing only “cartilage irritation” rather than structural damage to the ribs. The team again classified Buxton as day-to-day. “It’s a good outcome,” said Baldelli. “We’ll see how he is tomorrow and so on, but to be day-to-day with what he left the game with, it’s a good thing. We’ll measure him out, get him looked at by the trainers each day, get him a lot of treatment and hopefully he’ll be back very soon.”

Unfortunately, Buxton hasn’t gotten back into a game and the Twins have lost three of four, cementing their status as deadline sellers. Harrison Bader has taken over in center field, but he’s widely expected to be moved at the deadline. Buxton has a no-trade clause and recently reiterated his stated desire to say with the Twins for life, but the injury seems likely to silence any remaining whispers about the possibility that he could be traded too. Read the rest of this entry »

Carlos Correa is an Astro… again. Mason Miller is a Padre! Eugenio Suárez is a Mariner! Jhoan Duran is a Phillie! Both of the Rogers twins are about to wear new uniforms (Taylor twice over)! The 2025 trade deadline has come and gone, and it saw some blockbuster moves. To help you keep track of all the activity, I’ve rounded up all of our deadline pieces in one place. You’ll find the broader preview and summary pieces listed first, followed by links to useful site tools, relevant pieces from RotoGraphs, and of course, a team-by-team listing of the transaction breakdowns that involve your favorite squad, either as buyers or sellers. I’ll update the roundup as more deadline analysis goes live.

All of the pieces linked below took time and resources to produce. If you enjoy our coverage of the trade deadline and are in a position to do so, we hope you’ll sign up for a FanGraphs Membership. It’s the best way to both support our work and experience the site, and comes with a ton of great benefits. Now, on to the roundup! Read the rest of this entry »

Jordan Hicks wasn’t yet reaching triple digits when our 2017 St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospects list was published in January of that year. Ranked 14th in the system at the time, the 2015 third-round pick out of Texas’s Cyprus Creek High School was throwing — per Eric Longenhagen — a comparably modest 96 mph. That soon changed. The high-octane right-hander went on to eclipse the 100 mark that summer, and early the next season he was clocked at 105 while pitching in the big leagues against the Philadelphia Phillies.

He’s since ridden a bit of a rollercoaster. Hicks followed a solid 2018 rookie campaign by logging 14 saves and a 3.14 ERA over two-plus months in 2019, but he blew out his elbow in June and underwent Tommy John surgery. As a Type-1 diabetic, he sat out the entire 2020 pandemic campaign. More elbow woes cropped up in 2021, limiting him to just 10 big league innings.

Changes of address have been notable in Hicks’ subsequent seasons, as have his job descriptions. The righty remained a reliever throughout 2023 — a year that saw him dealt from the Cardinals to the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline — but he was then converted to a starter after signing as a free agent with the San Francisco Giants prior to last season. His success in that role having been a mixed bag, Hicks now finds himself back in the bullpen — with yet another team. Acquired by the Boston Red Sox as part of last month’s Rafael Devers trade, he has gone on to make nine appearances and register a pair of saves while allowing four earned runs over seven 1.3 innings. His fastball velocity has topped out at 101.5 mph.

What did his 2017 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Hicks to respond to it.

———

“A relatively undercooked prep arm from the 2015 draft.”

“Undercooked? I guess if you’re cooking a steak and you want it medium, I was rare,” Hicks said of that quote. “I didn’t have a lot of innings. At that point I had only thrown around 50 innings, and another 50 in high school. So, it was maybe 50 varsity innings and 50 pro innings. I think that’s probably what he meant by that.”

“His fastball sits 90-94, will touch 96, and comes in at an odd angle with some late sink.” Read the rest of this entry »

Some transactions are epic sagas that unfold over weeks or months, while others are compact little one-act plays that are over and done with in an afternoon.

On Tuesday, the Blue Jays lost Game 1 of a doubleheader to the Orioles by a score of 16-4. Chad Green, the team’s second-most expensive reliever, surrendered four of those runs in one inning, bringing his ERA to 5.56 and his home run total to 14 in just 43 2/3 innings. Before Game 2, the Blue Jays DFA’d Green and traded for Orioles right-hander Seranthony Domínguez, an unused substitute in Game 1.

Cutting ties with Green, who makes $10.5 million this year, will be expensive, but the Blue Jays did save a few hundred bucks on airfare by trading for a guy who was already in the building. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about how the expanded playoffs may suppress trade activity and, prompted by the passing of Ryne Sandberg, the factors that can make a player punch above their weight from a popularity perspective. Then (31:47) they answer listener emails about triples hitting, Bryce Harper vs. José Ramírez, the effect of gray hairs on free agency, football body comps for baseball players, “first half” vs. “second half,” change-of-scenery candidates, perfection for hitters, the language of WAR, scouting trade candidates, framing a player for pitch-fixing, early/late-season platoon players, outfielders lying down on the job, and Aaron Judge’s BABIP (plus a reaction to Rich Hill’s DFA).

Audio intro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Ben C. on expanded playoffs
Link to Dan S. on expanded playoffs
Link to Paine on the deadline
Link to Sandberg NYT obit
Link to Sandberg Stat Blast
Link to “Sandberg Game” video
Link to triples Stathead
Link to Stark on future HoFers
Link to Wilkins kiss story
Link to info on Day’s beard
Link to post-ASB split 1
Link to post-ASB split 2
Link to splits spreadsheet
Link to Ben on the foul lines
Link to Russell on outfield defense 1
Link to Russell on outfield defense 2
Link to Russell on outfield defense 3
Link to doubleheader trade
Link to Szymborski on Judge
Link to Petriello on Judge
Link to Savant xBABIP
Link to listener emails database

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