If Phillies fans had known three days ago that their squad would leave Atlanta with a split, they’d all have told you that was swell. It felt as though they were playing with house money after surviving a late onslaught by a Braves lineup that squandered two woulda-coulda-shoulda, difference-making bases loaded situations in Game 1 and escaping with the victory, and they had both Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola looming for the next two games. But at the mercy of Kyle Wright and Atlanta’s bullpen King Ghidorah of A.J. Minter, Raisel Iglesias, and Kenley Jansen, the Phillies were shut out in Game 2, sent packing in a 3–0 loss which didn’t even last as long (two hours and 49 minutes) as the rain delay that preceded it.

While leaving the den of the defending World Series champions even at a game a piece is, in a vacuum, a huge positive for the Phillies, the context of this split is somewhat alarming. The Braves have outscored them 8–1 over the last 14 innings, as Philadelphia mustered just three hits in this shutout loss. A masterful performance by Wright and opportunistic hitting in the sixth inning were pretty much all of what Atlanta needed to tie the series.

Wheeler largely performed as expected for most of the game. Second among big league starters in WAR across the last two seasons, he needed just 27 pitches to knife through three perfect innings at the start, his adrenaline-boosted fastball velocity a full tick above his 2022 regular-season mark. It’s especially encouraging to see that arm strength given that he is just a few starts removed from coming off the IL with forearm tendinitis.

It wasn’t until the sixth, thanks to some self-inflicted damage on Wheeler’s part, that the Braves broke through in a two-out rally. After he dispatched Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario to start the inning, the righty hit Ronald Acuña Jr. with a fastball, resulting in a lengthy delay so the trainer could check on Acuña. (You know what it’s like to hit your funny bone on the door frame? Imagine the door frame is moving at 97 mph.) Read the rest of this entry »

Hindsight is always 20/20, a truism that is acutely felt after a particularly heartbreaking loss. It’s one ringing true in the heads of Mariners fans who witnessed a Game 1 victory in the AL Division Series slip through their fingers yesterday. Ben Clemens had the game recap, but I wanted to hone in on the final, decisive at-bat in the bottom of the ninth. More specifically, I want to try to answer the question in the headline: what were the Mariners thinking when they brought in Robbie Ray to face Yordan Alvarez?

On the surface, the move looks defensible. Paul Sewald had gotten the first two outs of the inning but had allowed two baserunners to reach to bring Alvarez to the plate. Why not bring in the lefty to gain the platoon advantage? Seattle even thought this very situation through in the lead up to this series. After the game, Mariners manager Scott Servais explained how that plan came to be:

“It was something going into the series where we were at, looking at our rotation, where we were going to head, and talking with Robbie about using him out of the bullpen as a bullet, so to speak, for that type of scenario. Bringing in a lefty against Alvarez, although Alvarez is one of the better hitters in the league … I looked at it in the seventh inning and said, ‘Hey, this could happen.’ So that was the plan going in.”

The Mariners aren’t strangers to game planning around Alvarez, having faced him dozens of times in the regular season during his career. Not that it’s done them much good: he has a career .305/.385/.597 (166 wRC+) slash line against Seattle in 179 plate appearances. You really can’t game plan around Alvarez, either; he’s one of the best hitters in the league and was one of the two best hitters in baseball this year. And it’s not like gaining the platoon advantage is much of an advantage anyway, given his impossibly small career platoon split: a .404 wOBA versus right-handers and a .406 wOBA against left-handers. His career strikeout rate against southpaws is even a few points lower. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m not sure about you, but I’ve been eagerly awaiting the release of Statcast arm strength data for a while now. At the end of September, the day finally came, inspiring me to dive into the metrics of some of my favorite throwers in the league. Fielding mechanics are an under-appreciated part of the game. So much goes into having the appropriate footwork to direct yourself towards a base in order to make an accurate, strong throw, and some do it better than others. With the help of the Statcast Arm Strength leaderboard, I’m going to show you exactly what sets those players apart from the rest of the pack.

There are a few different ways to sort through the leaderboard. You can change the minimum number of throws if you’re mainly interested in finding who has the highest peak arm strength, regardless of how many total throws they’ve made. I settled on 100 throws, the default on the leaderboard. From there, I set out to find concrete examples of players near the top of leaderboard making accurate throws to nail runners between second base and home. Why? Because throwing isn’t just about arm strength – accuracy also plays a big role when it comes to outfield throws. The time it takes for a fielder to step to a ball or move their glove across their body can be the difference between a runner being called safe or out, while a strong and accurate throw gives their teammates the best chance to make a play. At home plate, throws on a fly or one long hop are crucial for catchers. It’s extremely difficult to make a play on a short hop while trying to get a tag down. After my search, I settled on five players from a sample of 20 to 25 who showcased great footwork and instincts to pair with their strong, accurate throws. Below is a representative play for each. To MLB’s Film Room!

Nate Eaton, Kansas City Royals (no. 1 overall)

Nate Eaton has an absolute cannon for an arm. Of all the players in the league with at least 100 throws in 2022, he ranks first on the arm strength leaderboard with an average throw of 98.1 mph. Statcast calculates this number by averaging the top portion of a player’s throws. Eaton is the only player with a number above 98 mph; he also has the highest maximum throw at 103.3 mph. There are only a few players who make your jaw drop when they make throws and Eaton is one of them.

After Gary Sánchez lined this pitch down the left field line, Eaton had a beat on the ball and immediately knew how to attack it. Knowing Sánchez’s speed, he got to the ball and took a few extra steps to plant on his back foot and push a speeding mack truck’s amount of force into the ground. I sometimes get frustrated watching position players throw because they forget their glove side exists. That isn’t a problem for Eaton. After planting, he creates a perfect angle to use his left arm as a coil to throw off of, leading to a seed right over the bag and a nice outfield assist.

Aristides Aquino, Cincinnati Reds (no. 3 overall)

It isn’t hyperbole to say that this is one of the most impressive throws you’ll ever see. Some of the best opportunities for a guy to make a play with his arm come after a misread, when he has overestimated his chances of making a play with his glove. After Aristides Aquino jumped up on the wall to save a few runs, the ball ricocheted off and forced him to scurry after it. After gathering himself and seeing how far Rhys Hoskins was from home, he knew he had a shot.

The two most important parts of this throw are the lead leg block (foot plant) and the crazy sub-scapula adduction (pinching of both scapula). Foot planting like this after running is nothing to bat an eye at. That, on top of his hyper mobile scapula, equated to a beautiful throw. Aquino’s max throw this year was 101.6 mph. I imagine this was pretty close to that.

Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves (no. 18 overall)

Michael Harris II isn’t quite as large as Eaton or Aquino, making this throw and his maximum throwing velocity of 100.0 mph incredibly impressive. And unlike Aquino and Eaton, this play came on a standard outfield groundball. Harris played the hop perfectly, used a pro step to direct himself, and threw a missile through the would-be cutoff man for a perfect one-hopper to nail Luis Guillorme at the plate.

The pro step is a simple fundamental move where you take your throwing-side leg and swing it right behind your plant foot to properly align yourself toward the ball’s destination. It’s a quick move and the perfect one for attacking a grounder you need to make a throw on. It’s not in this view, but Harris also finishes with a nice little spin after releasing, also known as a janitor throw. It’s a reciprocal movement for the quick rotation that a throw like this requires.

Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (no. 25 overall)

Aaron Judge ranks 25th (92.3 mph) on the arm strength leaderboard. You might expect to see him ranked higher given his size, but if you watch him regularly, you know that he tones it down to make accurate throws like this one. I’m not sure there is a better baiter in the league than Judge. His awareness and feel around the short porch in Yankee Stadium allows him to fool runners into thinking they have a shot at second base.

Tommy Pham is pretty fast! His 64th percentile sprint speed is decently above average, yet, Judge makes him look slow as molasses as he waltzed to this ball in the corner. The fundamentals here are all impeccable. Once Judge knows he can’t get it on the fly, he reorients himself and prepares his hands for a smooth transfer. That part reminded me of a catcher. As a backstop, you’re taught to transfer the ball as deep into your body and as close to your ear as possible when preparing to throw a runner out. It leaves little room for error. Judge did exactly that when reacting to this hop off the wall and made throwing out Pham look easy with a perfect no-hopper. If I had to guess what his hardest throw of the year was, it would be this one.

Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners, (no. 14 overall)

Speaking of baiting, this play by Julio Rodríguez was prime example of the skill. As the ball was lined into center, Rodríguez remained calm and threw up his hands as if he was preparing to catch it on a line. Little did Lourdes Gurriel Jr. know, this ball wasn’t even close to being caught on a fly. This is a combination of lack of awareness and trickery leading to a perfect chance for Rodríguez to nab Gurriel on a force out.

He wouldn’t have been able to do this without his 96th percentile arm strength. Ranked 14th, Rodríguez is a threat to throw out any runner. Typically, a player should have no chance of getting a force out at third base from the outfield, but a slight hesitation due to the hand deke was enough for him to unload a pill. Unlike Harris, Rodríguez opted for a mini crow hop and not a pro step. It’s a slower movement, but my goodness, if you can throw a ball this hard off a crow hop, then I’d say you’ve made the right decision!

I’m going to have a ton of fun with this new leaderboard. To me, a high throwing velocity is just as impressive as a high exit velocity. Seeing arm strength numbers on broadcasts will add interesting insight and context to games. How fast does a throw need to be to turn a double play or nail a runner at home? These are great questions that I’d love to see answered. For now, I’ll leave you with this. Arm strength is the first step in being a great thrower from the outfield, but that doesn’t mean you can discount the importance of accuracy. Each of the throws I highlighted today has something in common in addition to their impressive speeds: they all ended up right over the bag or plate.

Here’s some hard-won advice, earned over a lifetime of experience as an oldest child: Whatever you do, never let your little brother win. Love your siblings, protect them, sure, but don’t give them an inch. Once they get it in their heads that they can beat you, they will.

The Dodgers understand this. Their rivalry with the Padres teases us with thrilling talent and occasional flash points of ferocity, but it remains one-sided. Tuesday’s 5-3 Game 1 win is merely the latest example. The Dodgers couldn’t complete the rout they threatened in the early innings, but just as they couldn’t put the game to bed early, neither could the Padres claw all the way back. Read the rest of this entry »

NEW YORK — When Gerrit Cole signed his nine-year, $324 million deal with the Yankees in December 2019, he no doubt envisioned starting big playoff games in the Bronx in front of a packed house full of screaming fans. But while he’d taken the hill four times for the Yankees in the previous two Octobers, until Tuesday night’s Division Series opener against the Guardians, he’d never gotten to do so while wearing the home pinstripes. In his long-awaited postseason debut at Yankee Stadium, Cole shook off a recent rough stretch, dodged trouble early, found a groove, and turned in an impressive performance, allowing one run over 6.1 innings in a 4-1 victory.

Facing a contact-centric Cleveland team that posted the majors’ lowest swinging strike rate (9.1%) and strikeout rate (18.2%), Cole collected 19 swings and misses from among his 101 pitches (18.8%) and punched out eight hitters (29.6%). He allowed just four hits, including a solo homer by Steven Kwan, walked one and hit one batter. If it wasn’t an overpowering performance, it was nonetheless a rewarding one.

“It was very special for me,” said Cole of leaving the mound to an ovation from the 47,807 fans in the seventh inning, by which point the Yankees had come from behind to secure the lead. “The game’s not over, I left with traffic [on the bases], so it’s not the most comfortable time to acknowledge the crowd, but I certainly felt it and appreciated it… What a wonderful experience to have them behind us.” Read the rest of this entry »

Before Tuesday, this postseason had been a tale of a starting pitcher renaissance, with over a third of the starters in the Wild Card round authoring shutout performances. It was a good bet that we would see more of the same in this season’s first playoff game between the Phillies and Braves, the majors’ second- and seventh-ranked teams, respectively, in starter WAR. Yet neither Max Fried nor Ranger Suárez made it out of the fourth inning, garnering just 10 outs apiece on a warm, sunny day in Atlanta.

Fried didn’t look right from the outset. In his shortest start since April of 2021, his velocity was down across the board. With the exception of his curveball, all of his other pitches saw decreased spin as well, and for some, less movement, too. Fried dealt with similar dips in his last start, but he was also coping with illness. Today’s loss of crispness comes with no such caveat, not to mention six extra days of rest. Read the rest of this entry »

The Mariners didn’t have an imposing offense this season. They hung their hat on pitching and defense, with a pinch of offense when they most needed it. The Astros turned otherwise-imposing offenses into weaklings; they allowed a shocking 3.2 runs per game, second only to the Dodgers in the majors. They brought out the likely Cy Young winner for today’s matchup. I’m sure you can see where this is going: Seattle scored seven runs and allowed eight.

It’s fair to say that Justin Verlander didn’t have his best stuff today. His slider came out flat; of the first eight that the Mariners swung at, they came up empty on only one. His fastball was scattershot, its normal backspinning movement coming and going, as did his command of the pitch. But he might have gotten away with it, if it weren’t for that meddling kid.

The kid, in this instance, is Julio Rodríguez. He’s an electric talent, a generational Seattle superstar in the mold of Ken Griffey Jr. After a sensational rookie season, he had a quiet start to the playoffs in Toronto, but he was in the straw that stirred the drink for Seattle today. Read the rest of this entry »

7:34	David Laurila: Greetings all. Not sure tonight’s game can top what we just saw in Houston… but you never know.

7:36	David Laurila: The baseball has been good, and we have a lot more in front of us. October is fun. (Less so today if you’re a Mariners fan.)

7:37	David Laurila: No, but as that long ball reminded us, he’s on the short list.

Read the rest of this entry »

Decision-making in the playoffs is a micro-focused as you can imagine. The level of preparation which goes into these games will never be fully known in the public sphere, but if a team wants even the slightest competitive edge, you better believe the details are as granular as the fine sands of Puerto Rico’s Playa Negrita.

Every opposing hitter has a zone and/or pitch that is a weak spot. You must know who on your pitching staff is best suited to throw to those weaknesses, and what hitters are most adaptable to use pitch sequences that will play to those same weaknesses. The following matchups are a few areas that could sway any given game in either direction. They are certainly not the only of high importance, but the statistical or situational holes make them worth mentioning. I’ll go through series by series and pick one that deserves attention, starting with the Yankees against the Guardians.

Guardians’ offense vs. Yankees’ sinkerballers

The Yankees’ bullpen is loaded with turbo sinkers and groundball pitchers. Lou Trivino, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Clay Holmes, to name a few, all feature a sinker as their primary fastball. Each of them will be used in high-leverage scenarios against any layer of the Guardians’ lineup, which has been the very worst in the American League against the sinker, posting the second-lowest wOBA (.317) and the lowest xwOBA (.319).

There’s plenty to suggest the Yankees’ bullpen will give the Guardians issues. Because of those turbo sinkers, New York’s bullpen led all of baseball in GB% (49.1%) and Run Value (-20.3 runs). The next best in both categories was Baltimore, which trailed in each by a decent margin (1.5 percentage points and 1.9 runs). In today’s game, being better than every team at throwing sinkers provides a significant competitive advantage, as it keeps batted balls out of the air and on the ground. Read the rest of this entry »