Welcome to the 2022 positional power rankings! As is tradition, over the next week and a half, we’ll be ranking every team by position as we inch closer to Opening Day. This is always something of a funny exercise. You read FanGraphs regularly, after all — a fact for which we are very grateful — and are well-versed in the goings on of the offseason. You know that Carlos Correa signed with the Twins and that Kris Bryant now calls Denver home, and that the Mets remade part of their rotation and a good bit of their lineup. And yet after a protracted lockout and the subsequent frenetic conclusion to free agency, you’re still keen to know more about the game and what it might look like between now and October. The positional power rankings are our answer to that impulse.

This post serves as an explainer for our approach to the rankings. If you’re new to the exercise, I hope it helps to clarify how they are compiled and what you might expect from them. If you’re a FanGraphs stalwart, I hope it is a useful reminder of what we’re up to. If you have a bit of time, here is the introduction to last year’s series. You can use the navigation widget at the top of that post to get a sense of where things stood before Opening Day 2021, a year during which the projections were feeling the effects of 2020’s COVID-shortened slate.

Unlike a lot of sites’ season previews, we don’t arrange ours by team or division. That is a perfectly good way to organize a season preview, but we see a few advantages to the way we do it. First, ranking teams by position allows us to cover a team’s roster from top to bottom. Stars, everyday contributors, and role players alike receive some amount of examination, and those players (and the teams they play for) are placed in their proper league-wide context. By doing it this way, you can more easily see how teams stack up against each other, get a sense of the overall strength of a position across the game, and spot places where a well-constructed platoon may end up having a bigger impact than an everyday regular who is merely good. We think all of that context helps to create a richer understanding of the state of things and a clearer picture of the season ahead. Read the rest of this entry »

Toronto Blue Jays pitching prospect Hagen Danner is a converted catcher who gets good ride on his four-seam fastball, and he attributes that quality to his former position. Hearing that from the 23-year-old right-hander prompted me to ask Philadelphia Phillies manager Joe Girardi if what I was told made sense.

“I can definitely see that,” said Girardi, who caught for 15 big-league seasons. “But I don’t think it’s a guarantee; some [catchers] have a little tail to their ball when they throw. At times, I would have a little tail. But [Garrett] Stubbs really gets underneath it, really gets that spin. There are a lot of catchers who do. It’s how we’re taught to throw.”

Good ride typically comes with a four-seam grip, but unlike pitchers, a catcher isn’t standing on a mound with ample time to manipulate the baseball in his hand; he has to receive the ball, make the transfer, and get rid of it as quickly as possible. I asked the catcher-turned-manager about that as well.

“You don’t have time to get the grip, but ideally you want to throw it straight,” said Girardi. “And you can still throw it straight, pretty much, if you don’t have a perfect four-seam grip.”

Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch is likewise a former catcher, so I asked him the same questions I’d asked Girardi. Read the rest of this entry »

On Thursday morning, the Blue Jays and Rockies agreed to a trade sending Randal Grichuk and cash considerations to Colorado, with Raimel Tapia and minor league infielder Adrian Pinto joining Toronto. Rob Gillies of The Associated Press reports that the amount of cash is just over $9.7 million, which accounts for nearly half of the remaining salary on Grichuk’s five-year contract. With this move, the Blue Jays get the left-handed outfielder they had been searching for, and the Rockies get another power hitter to plug into the middle of their lineup.

Grichuk signed that five-year extension (worth $52 million) after putting up 2.1 WAR in 2018, his first season in Toronto. He blasted 31 home runs the next year, but that power was the only positive aspect of his approach at the plate. Over the last three years, his offensive output has been nine percent below league average, and that’s despite an ISO that sits a hair above .200. His biggest issue has been getting on base at a regular clip. His walk rate has been remarkably consistent, sitting around 5.8% over the last six years, though it dipped to its lowest point since his rookie season last year. With a batted-ball profile focused on fly ball contact, his BABIP isn’t much better.

In the field, Grichuk has been a solid defender across all three outfield positions. Splitting his time between center and right field over the last few years, the advanced defensive metrics rate his work in the corner a little higher than up the middle. All three metrics were disappointed in his ability to cover enough ground in the field as the Blue Jays’ full-time center fielder in 2020. But moved over to right in ’21, he graded out as one of the better fielders at the position on a per-inning basis, accumulating 6 DRS and 5.5 UZR in just 330.1 innings. Read the rest of this entry »

Rhys Hoskins hits for power. The 29-year-old Philadelphia Phillies first baseman went deep 27 times last year in 443 plate appearances; his home run totals in his previous full seasons were 34 and 29 respectively. Moreover, the most notable digits in his career .241/.360/.502 slash line are those of his slugging percentage. And then there is his average exit velocity. Last year, Hoskins ranked in the 83rd percentile for that particular metric.

Slugger bona fides aside, he’s no mere masher. Hoskins is a student of the art of hitting, and he has been since his days at Sacramento State University. That’s where he learned to hunt the heater, an approach that — as the numbers attest — has served him well.

Hoskins discussed his evolution as a hitter, and the mindset that helps him flourish in the batter’s box, at the Phillies’ spring training site in Clearwater on Wednesday afternoon.

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David Laurila: How do you identify as a hitter?

Rhys Hoskins: “I think I’m a hitter with a pretty good understanding of the strike zone. High on-base guy. High power guy with always a chance to hit for more average. That’s the way I would describe myself.”

Laurila: Many people view you as a power hitter. Do you like that label?

Hoskins: “I feel like when you hear ‘power hitter,’ there’s a little bit of all-or-nothing attached to that. So I don’t know if I would necessarily say I’m a power hitter. I think I’d rather say that I’m a hitter with some power.”

Laurila: Where, and from whom, did you learn to hit? Read the rest of this entry »

If you weren’t looking for it, you’d miss it. Buried in a blow-by-blow account from The Athletic’s Matt Gelb of how the Phillies ended up signing Kyle Schwarber, FanGraphs newsletter writer Jeffrey Bellone spotted something interesting:

“However, under the new CBA, a traded contract is recalculated to reflect the remaining actual dollars. That means contracts that are backloaded will be harder to trade (if the acquiring team is concerned about the luxury tax threshold).”

This change was an afterthought in the piece, an offhand justification the Phillies made for not acquiring Kevin Kiermaier. His remaining average salary outstrips the average annual value of his deal, which means that under the terms of the new CBA, he’d carry a higher tax hit than he would have in the old regime. The ownership group’s desire to abide by the sport’s soft salary cap made Kiermaier’s salary an untenable addition.

With the benefit of hindsight, it seems that ownership didn’t actually care about the dollars very much, given that they signed Nick Castellanos and ticked over the first CBT threshold anyway. And given that the tax rate is 20%, the difference in Kiermaier’s tax hit under the old and new agreements is a hair under $6 million; the total monetary difference would have been roughly $1 million in assessed tax. That’s a vanishingly small difference on a $230 million payroll.

I’ll level with you: I don’t think this is going to be an earth-shaking change to the economics of baseball. Only five teams look likely to pay any tax this year, with a few other in hailing distance of the barrier. The differences aren’t huge; $6 million a year isn’t quite a rounding error, but it’s hardly a life-and-death number. Remember: teams are not actually paying Kiermaier $6 million more than they would have before. Salary is salary. This is merely an accounting game that affects teams who pay at least some amount of tax.

Still, we analysts love financial tomfoolery, so let’s consider a few contracts that are interestingly shaped now that trades can trigger the re-calculation of tax numbers. First, a quick disclaimer: I haven’t seen the exact text of the new agreement. It’s unclear how the Rays’ CBT number would be affected by trading Kiermaier; I’m assuming no effect, but if that isn’t the case, that obviously changes the calculus. It’s not clear how signing bonuses will be handled, either; it appears that it would be spread evenly across each year, but again, I’m working from the outside.
Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 967

On this week’s show, David Laurila welcomes Alex Coffey, a sportswriter for The Philadelphia Inquirer covering the Philadelphia Phillies.

David and Alex both attended Nick Castellanos’ signing press conference in Florida, and discuss how the outfielder is going to fit on a team that may already struggle defensively. Alex also shares what it’s like to watch Bryce Harper take batting practice and lead a team, and how great it has been to interview Phillies like Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Gibson now that clubhouse access has been restored. We also hear about the team’s center field position battle and how Matt Vierling could potentially impress in the role.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 26 minute play time.)

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Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Baseball Prospectus editor-in-chief Craig Goldstein banter about a contentious Baseball Prospectus headline and an overlooked Scott Boras quote, then preview the 2022 season in the National League West, team by team (plus closing banter about the Baseball Prospectus annual).

Audio intro: Big Star, “Way Out West”
Audio outro: The New Pornographers, “The Fake Headlines”

Link to BP zombie runner story
Link to Boras quote about Correa
Link to Ben’s old ouroBoras tweet
Link to Snell on sandwiches
Link to Trout on cutting sandwiches
Link to Craig on the Dodgers
Link to BP playoff odds
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to R.J.’s breakout picks
Link to Jarrín’s retirement story
Link to Michael Ajeto on Heaney
Link to Gore spring training story
Link to Jeff Passan on Story
Link to Ajeto on Gallen
Link to buy the BP annual
Link to Votto’s Instagram post
Link to Ben’s Ohtani article

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I have a schematic in my head for how a major league team can assemble a dominant bullpen. You, as someone who reads FanGraphs, probably have an idea in your head for how a major league team can assemble a dominant bullpen. They’re probably the same ideas – assemble a stable of guys who can throw 98. If that doesn’t work, assemble a stable of guys who can throw 99, and add wipeout sliders until it clicks.

The Mariners had one of the best bullpens in baseball last year, and they nearly rode that unit – and their resulting excellent performance in close games – to the playoffs. You don’t coin “fun differential” if you don’t have a good bullpen. Yesterday, the team bolstered this year’s version by signing Sergio Romo to a one-year deal worth $2 million (or up to $2.25 million with incentives). In doing so, they added to a truly interesting unit that will look to back up last year’s spectacular performance while eschewing the way that their competitors look to combine relievers, at least to a degree.

In 2021, 135 relievers threw at least 20 innings while averaging 95 mph or higher on their fastballs. The Mariners will employ one of them – Diego Castillo – this year, and he’s only on the list due to his rarely-used four-seamer, as his sinker dipped below 95 last year. They have some other flamethrowers in their ‘pen – Andrés Muñoz throws 100, but missed most of 2021 with injury. Ken Giles might qualify as a flamethrower eventually, but his recovery from Tommy John so far has him topping out at 95. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the beginning of the 2022 division series preview series, rant about the reinstitution of the zombie runner, applaud the advent of the Ohtani Rule, follow up on a previous Stat Blast by recounting the most consecutive defensive plays a fielder has ever been involved in, and relate an unforgivable Scott Boras pun, then (35:59) bring on R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports to preview the 2022 season in the American League Central, team by team.

Audio intro: Yo La Tengo, “Automatic Doom”
Audio interstitial: Fruit Bats, “My Sweet Midwest”
Audio outro: Kevin Morby, “Don’t Underestimate Midwest American Sun”

Link to news about rules
Link to Ohtani Rule story
Link to study on zombie runner effects
Link to Stanky Draft episode
Link to longest fielder streaks
Link to first Boras quote
Link to second Boras quote
Link to Correa signing story
Link to Guardians sale story
Link to R.J.’s breakout picks
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to RosterResource payroll page
Link to Greinke photo tweet

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Ian Seymour throws ugly, and he looks good doing it. Drafted 57th overall by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 out of Virginia Tech, the 23-year-old southpaw is coming off his first professional season, one in which he logged a 1.95 ERA with 87 strikeouts in 55-and-a-third innings. The dominance came at three levels, with 10 outings in Low-A and two starts each in High- and Triple-A. Especially eye-opening was his September stint at Durham: facing hitters one rung below the majors, he allowed four hits and one unearned run over 10 innings of work.

Augmenting Seymour’s unique delivery is a five-pitch mix that leans heavily on his high-riding heater and a fading changeup, with a sweeping slider emerging as a potential third plus pitch. Dotting corners isn’t part of his attack plan. The erstwhile biology major — Seymour graduated from Virginia Tech last fall — doesn’t dissect hitters so much as he rears back and dares them to make contact. It’s hard to argue with success: Opposing batters slashed .139/.239/.246 against him last season.

Seymour — No. 16 on our newly-released Tampa Bay Rays Top Prospects list — discussed his game over the phone last week.

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David Laurila: What were your expectations going into the 2020 draft, and which teams did you feel would be the best fits for you development-wise? Read the rest of this entry »