I’ve been thinking a lot about two Yankees hitters recently. That’s less common than you’d think for me; out on the west coast, the TV isn’t overrun with Yankees highlights, and there are just so many baseball teams, so many interesting players to ponder. But I heard an announcer discussing one of my favorite baseball tropes, and it brought Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo to mind.

“Hard in, soft away” is a pitching adage, and one that makes plenty of sense. There’s a mechanical aspect to it, for one: to hit an inside pitch on the barrel, a hitter has to rotate more, which naturally takes more time. On the other hand, a slow pitch has the best odds of eluding a batter’s swing, or at least the most dangerous part of the bat, if the hitter swings too quickly; in a regular swing, the barrel gets to the outside part of the plate first (on a plane to hit the ball the other way) before rotating around to the inside of the plate (on a plane to pull).

I’m not a hitting mechanics expert, and that doesn’t describe the whole story. The batter could pull his hands in to try to get the bat head through the zone more quickly, or employ different swings for differently located (or angled) pitches, or any number of counters. But the default assumption – batters want to get the bat around on inside pitches, so pitchers should give them less time to do that, and vice versa – is at least a decent approximation of the physical reality in play. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley are joined by Jake Mintz of Céspedes Family BBQ to talk about Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson leaving the team midseason to join LSU, why MLB teams are hiring coaches from college and why colleges are hiring them back, whether MLB teams should pay coaches more, the state of player development in college, Jake’s experience at the College World Series, his short summary of what non-college baseball fans should know about the just-completed college season, the arrival of Royals rookie Vinnie Pasquantino, the Astros’ extremely low-offense catchers, the importance of pitch-tipping, Rafael Devers heating up and sitting down, Clay Holmes’s improvement after leaving the Pirates, the unwritten rules of closer entrance song etiquette, Justin Turner’s walk-up song consistency, and more. Then (1:00:19), Ben and Meg banter about yet another Tyler Wade/Taylor Ward broadcaster mixup, how Freddie Freeman leaving Atlanta is like Ben leaving grammar school, and whether wearing two gloves could actually be legal, plus a Past Blast from 1869.

Audio intro: Shy Boys, “In Gloves”
Audio outro: Monophonics, “Let That Sink In”

Link to Dan Hayes on Johnson
Link to SI post about Johnson
Link to article about Fetter
Link to Ben on college player dev
Link to story on Twins’ college coaches
Link to ESPN on the CWS outcome
Link to Jake on Houston’s catchers
Link to team catcher offense
Link to Trout pitch-tipping GIF
Link to Jordan on Devers
Link to Speier on Devers
Link to article about Holmes post-Pirates
Link to Ben Clemens on Holmes
Link to Jordan on Holmes
Link to Cameron Grove on pitch usage
Link to Rob Arthur on pitch usage
Link to Rob on pitch usage again
Link to sinker usage leaderboard
Link to grounder rate leaderboard
Link to Ken Rosenthal on Freeman
Link to Jay Jaffe on Freeman
Link to Kershaw comment on Freeman
Link to article on Flores crying
Link to wicket-keeper wiki
Link to wicket-keeper image
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1869 story source

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On Monday night, the Orioles beat the Mariners, turning an early 7–0 lead into a 9–2 win. In the annals of history, a last-place team beating a fourth-place team in a midseason game won’t exactly be one that old baseball historians recount in future documentaries. But it did cause the O’s to cross a symbolic threshold, guaranteeing that they’d have their first winning calendar month since 2017 (counting a 2–1 March 2019 would be a scurrilous case of loopholery). That’s not exactly cause to break out a Melchizedek of the bubbly stuff, but it’s progress for a team whose rebuilding efforts seemed to be lacking that characteristic.

One thing that bedeviled the Orioles was how little of a boost they received at the start of the rebuilding process. Mike Elias may have been hired after the 2018 season to oversee the reconstruction, but it was the old brain trust who got the ball rolling with major trades, dealing away Manny Machado, Zack Britton, Kevin Gausman, Jonathan Schoop, and Darren O’Day and receiving 15 players in return. Until this season, it looked like the only one that would make any impact on the team’s future would be Dillon Tate, picked up from the Yankees in the Britton trade, who has made his home as a mid-tier reliever. You can make an argument that the best minor leaguer involved in an Orioles trade during the first year of the rebuild was a player who was traded from Charm City, not acquired, when the O’s sent minor league veteran Mike Yastrzemski to the Giants.

The lost 2020 minor league season was problematic for everyone on the planet, but in a pure baseball context, I’ve argued that it was especially so for a Baltimore team flooded with Triple-A tweener pitchers and not enough places to play them. Fast-forward to our second season of relative normalcy, and you start to see a real foundation start to come together. We were generally bullish around here about Baltimore’s farm system coming into the season; my colleagues Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein rated the team very highly, and ZiPS had the team with the best prospect in baseball both at catcher and on the mound. ZiPS is even more positive about the team’s future now as most of the top prospects have improved their stock, some massively, rather than see it slide. Let’s run down some of the projection changes since the start of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

In the wake of Freddie Freeman’s starring role in the Braves’ championship run, the sequence of events that landed him in a Dodgers uniform was swift and shocking. Three months later, the 32-year-old first baseman still appears to be searching for closure, but for all the drama and the concerns about where his loyalties lie, he’s remained exceptionally productive even while the Dodgers’ offense has cooled off.

Freeman spent 15 seasons in the Braves’ organization, 11 as their regular first baseman (five times an All-Star, once an MVP), and last fall helped them win their first World Series since 1995. While most of the industry assumed he and the Braves would find a way to remain together once he reached free agency, on March 14 the team pulled off a blockbuster to acquire Oakland’s Matt Olson, abruptly closing the door on the Freeman era and underscoring that by quickly agreeing to an an eight-year, $168 million extension with the ex-Athletic. The suddenly jilted Freeman agreed to a six-year, $162 million deal with the Dodgers on March 16, returning him to his native California via the team that faced his Braves in the NLCS in each of the past two seasons. For as celebratory as the occasion should have been, in his introductory press conference Freeman described himself as “blindsided” by the Olson trade, adding, “I think every emotion came across. I was hurt. It’s really hard to put into words still.”

“I thought I was going to spend my whole career there, but ultimately sometimes plans change,” he said.

It didn’t take long for Freeman and the Braves to cross paths again. The two teams squared off for a three-game series in Los Angeles starting on April 18, with the first baseman punctuating the reunion by homering in the first and third games of the series and going 4-for-11 as the Dodgers took two of three. Not until last weekend did the two teams meet in Atlanta, providing the Braves with the opportunity to present the former face of the franchise with his World Series ring. Ahead of the ceremony on Friday, a teary-eyed Freeman said in his press conference, “I don’t even know how I’m going to get through this weekend,” and had to pause several times to collect himself when discussing his time with the Braves. After the team paid tribute to him, and manager Brian Snitker presented him with his ring, Freeman teared up again while addressing the Atlanta crowd:

Freddie's message to @Braves fans had us all crying. ?? pic.twitter.com/2a9GijKOni

— MLB (@MLB) June 25, 2022

It was, perhaps, a bit much for the Dodgers to stomach. In discussing the Freeman tribute with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Clayton Kershaw hinted at his teammates’ impatience when he said, “It was very cool (to see Freeman’s reception Friday night)… He’s obviously been a big contributor for our team. And I hope we’re not second fiddle. It’s a pretty special team over here, too. I think whenever he gets comfortable over here, he’ll really enjoy it.”

Freeman didn’t homer during the series but he he did survive the weekend, going 4-for-12 with three walks and an extra-innings RBI double in Sunday’s rubber match as the Dodgers again took two out of three. Read the rest of this entry »

With the 2022 KBO season halfway through, it seemed like a good opportunity to summarize the ins-and-outs of baseball over in Korea so far. Since I’m doing this in order of the standings, part one will talk about the SSG Landers, Kiwoom Heroes, LG Twins, KIA Tigers, and KT Wiz. Part two, which will be published tomorrow, will focus on the Samsung Lions, Doosan Bears, Lotte Giants, NC Dinos, and Hanwha Eagles, so don’t fret if your favorite team doesn’t appear here. Without further ado, here’s the latest on the Korea Baseball Organization.

Standings

Team Notes

SSG Landers

A strong rotation is a key component of any dominant team, and the Landers have exactly that — the best in the KBO, in fact. It’s led by Wilmer Font, who threw nine perfect innings in his first start of the season but failed to receive a single run of support. He’s maintained that brilliance, posting a 1.94 ERA and 2.76 FIP so far. But guess who leads the league with a 1.43 ERA? That’s Kwang Hyun Kim, who I suspect took a few courses on modern pitching theory, because his sub-30% fastball rate and 40% slider rate are an analyst’s dream come true. Oh, and he’s throwing two ticks harder than he did in the States. Talk about a homecoming.

The Landers’ lineup, while not as untouchable, is no slouch, either. Shin-Soo Choo remains a valuable leadoff hitter with his penchant for walks at the ripe old age of 40. Seong-han Park is the best hitting shortstop in the league, team captain and rightfielder Yoo-seom Han is on pace for a career-best 5 WAR, and the ever-consistent third baseman Jeong Choi — think of him as a Miguel Cabrera-type who never experienced a drastic decline — is slashing .302/.410/.493. It’s not just the veterans, as Ji-hoon Choi, their 25-year-old centerfielder, is in the midst of a breakout campaign with a 130 wRC+.

Entering this season, however, the offense consisted of two major holes. Thankfully, the first has been addressed: In May, the Landers made a trade for Tigers catcher Min-sik Kim, which made sense given the negative WAR accrued by SSG catchers up to that point. Kim is wielding a league-average bat with his new team so far, and while his production will likely a dwindle a tad, he’s nonetheless a massive upgrade. Meanwhile, the second hole at second base remains an issue, and the Landers’ internal options are nonexistent. They may not go for another trade given that the current squad is enough to win the pennant, but it is a major weakness. Overall, these Landers are the team to beat this KBO season. Read the rest of this entry »

You can read previous installments of our prospect notes here.

I’m touching up prospect lists using the same complex-based clustering as usual, incorporating notes from my in-person looks, sourced data, and the opinions of pro scouts. Up is the group of teams based in Phoenix’s East Valley, with a focus on the Cubs largely due to the depth of their system, making them the team most likely to be motivated to part with prospects between now and the trade deadline. Players whose Future Value grade changed have an “Up” or “Down” arrow in the “Trend” column on The Board.

Oakland Athletics

Jonah Bride and Jordan Diaz move into the 40+ FV tier on the strength of their bat-to-ball skills. Bride, who recently made his big league debut and is currently on the IL, is a recent (part-time) catching convert who would be stuffed in the 45 FV tier if his ball-blocking and receiving had progressed more quickly and I felt more confident that he could catch often. It’s still possible that he could turn into a role player with this sort of special versatility if his defense behind the plate continues to improve, but because he can hit, Bride is at least going to be a solid part-time infielder, with third base his most natural position.

The long-term athletic projection concerns that have been a part of the 21-year-old Diaz’s profile for the duration of his young career continue to apply, and it counterweights the fact that he’s performing so well (.293/.342/.537, a 121 wRC+ as of Tuesday) as a college-aged hitter at Double-A. But Midland isn’t exactly hitter-friendly, and his feel for contact is freaky enough to value him as more than just a corner bench player.

Mason Miller (scap strain) hasn’t pitched all year after sitting upper-90s with a plus slider during late-2021 looks in Mesa. Neither has titanic 23-year-old righty Jorge Juan, due to a multitude of issues. In addition to elbow treatment, he has had setbacks unrelated to the original injury while rehabbing. He was DFA’d and re-signed to a minor league deal after being a bold, surprising 40-man add in the offseason.

A-ball righties Blake Beers (plus slider, late-bloomer traits, a great day three draft find) and Yehizon Sanchez (lanky, above-average arm strength and curveball) have been added to the A’s prospect list, and their full scouting reports are available over on The Board. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a surprising ESPY nomination for Jorge Soler, another Tyler Wade/Taylor Ward broadcaster mixup, the massive Mariners-Angels brawl and ensuing suspensions and pizzas, Bryce Harper’s broken thumb and not-broken face, Mark Appel finally making the majors, an update on the Joc Pederson–Tommy Pham feud, the Yankees getting no-hit, the respectable Orioles, an impressive fact about the AL East, a Willians Astudillo tag mistake and the nature of forces vs. tags, and Freddie Freeman’s representation, plus a Stat Blast (1:13:05) about Robbie Ray and pitchers with high concentrations of runs allowed in one inning, a Past Blast (1:24:32) from 1868, and a few followups.

Audio intro: Colleen Green, “Number One”
Audio outro: The Hives, “Two-Timing Touch and Broken Bones”

Link to ESPY nominations
Link to video of brawl
Link to sunflower-seed toss
Link to suspension announcements
Link to pizza story
Link to Tepera’s two ejections
Link to Harper quote
Link to 2021 Harper HBP story
Link to Appel story
Link to Astros no-hitter video
Link to Langs tweet about Yankees
Link to first Judge game-ender
Link to second Judge game-ender
Link to Pederson/Pham update
Link to Astudillo tag play
Link to Olney report about Freeman
Link to Freeman ovation video
Link to Freeman press conference
Link to Stat Blast data
Link to Ray broadcast graphic
Link to Cameron Grove on Ray
Link to Grove on Ray again
Link to third Grove/Ray tweet
Link to Stathead
Link to Richard Hershberger’s Strike Four
Link to 1868 story source
Link to other 1868 story source
Link to Bradley broken-elbow video
Link to Bradley broken-elbow news
Link to Meg’s post on Bradley
Link to Sadman Baseball video

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It’s been an eventful couple of weeks for Jesse Winker. On the heels of an exceptional but injury-shortened campaign with the Reds and then a mid-March trade to the Mariners, he hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations, yet earlier this month, the team signed him to an extension that will carry him to free agency. On Sunday, Winker found himself at the center of the season’s biggest brawl, a spectacle that produced some unexpected payoffs as well as a boatload of suspensions, including a seven-gamer for the 29-year-old left fielder.

The atmosphere on Sunday in Anaheim was already tense in the wake of Mariners reliever Erik Swanson sailing a 95-mph fastball too close to the head of Mike Trout — who last week in Seattle homered five times in a five-game series, with four of the homers decisive — in the ninth inning of Saturday night’s game. Trout was understandably upset, though Swanson claimed he was merely trying to work up and in to a weak spot in the three-time MVP’s strike zone. The Angels, who lost after Trout was subsequently intentionally walked and then Shohei Ohtani retired, weren’t amused; as the epic breakdown from Jomboy Media showed, they spent a lot of time glaring and squawking as the Mariners celebrated their victory.

On Sunday, things escalated quickly. Angels starter Andrew Wantz’s fifth pitch of the day, a 93-mph fastball, whizzed behind the head of Mariners rookie Julio Rodríguez, prompting a warning from home plate umpire John Bacon. Winker came to the plate to lead off the second inning and was hit in his right hip by a 91-mph fastball. After jawing with catcher Max Stassi, gesturing toward Wantz and stepping out in front of home plate, he headed toward the Angels’ dugout, where he was met by a rather large contingent. His teammates quickly joined him, and a full-on scrum ensued, with Winker and teammate J.P. Crawford among those throwing punches.

Wantz, incidentally, was a last-minute replacement for scheduled starter Jose Suarez and was making his first major league start after 32 relief appearances dating back to last year. The Mariners later said that they believed the switch was made with the intention of Wantz acting as an enforcer, and that the 26-year-old righty should have been ejected after nearly hitting Rodríguez, but in his postgame comments, Wantz denied any intent with regards either to that pitch or the one that hit Winker. Winker, for his part, felt that if Wantz had been ejected for hitting him, none of the fighting would have occurred, and that Angels manager Phil Nevin and the injured Anthony Rendon (seen hitting Winker in the face with his left — non-injured — hand) instigated the brawl from the dugout. Read the rest of this entry »

Things haven’t quite gone to plan in San Francisco this year. That’s not to say that the Giants have been bad, or even that they’ve been disappointing exactly. At 39–33, they’re squarely in the playoff hunt, and if you go by our odds, they’re more likely to make the postseason today than they were before the season. But after a 107-win 2021, “in the playoff hunt” doesn’t sound nearly as enticing. The same is true for their individual performers. It’s hard to be impressed by a nice season when seemingly everyone on the team had a career year last year.

Here’s an example of what I mean. Logan Webb has been pretty darn good so far this year. In 15 starts, he’s compiled a 3.04 ERA, which nearly matches his 3.03 FIP. That’s roughly a match for his breakout 2021 season, which sounds great, but the resounding roar around the Giants’ unstoppable player development engine over the past two years makes Webb’s success feel almost pedestrian.

It’s not, though. Pitchers with ERAs near 3 don’t grow on trees. Webb is one of the best 30 starters in baseball; that should speak for itself. Since the start of 2021, he’s 12th among pitchers in WAR, 18th in ERA, and fifth in FIP. He’s 32nd in K-BB%, which doesn’t sound quite as impressive until you consider the fact that he gets so many grounders. No starter has allowed fewer home runs per inning, and only human cheat code Framber Valdez has a higher groundball rate.
Read the rest of this entry »