Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 12/13/21
by Ben Clemens
December 13, 2021
2022 ZiPS Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates
December 13, 2021
ZiPS Projections
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Batters
The offensive projections are kind of bleak, but they also represent the 2022 highlight for the Pirates, at least if ZiPS is correct. The offense basically consists of three highly interesting (in a good way) players.
When all is said and done, Oneil Cruz may end up having the best career of the three. The team’s sixth-ranked prospect entering 2021, Cruz destroyed minor league pitching on his return to Double-A. In a week for Triple-A Indianapolis, Cruz went 11-for-21 with five homers in six games, resulting in him getting a call-up for the final weekend of the season. Cruz is a physical anomaly, a 6-foot-7 player who can credibly play shortstop and run the bases very well. While there will naturally always be whispers about a shortstop that big staying at the position — and Cruz has gained about 30 pounds since his early prospect days — the Pirates aren’t in a position that should preclude them from letting him play there as long as he can. It’s what the O’s should have done with Manny Machado years ago, but they instead prioritized J.J. Hardy. The projection is even more exciting when you realize how few games ZiPS is projecting for Cruz due to various injuries and the missing COVID season. Read the rest of this entry »
JAWS and the 2022 Hall of Fame Ballot: Andruw Jones
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. It was initially written for The Cooperstown Casebook, published in 2017 by Thomas Dunne Books, and subsequently adapted for SI.com and then FanGraphs. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
It happened so quickly. Freshly anointed the game’s top prospect by Baseball America in the spring of 1996, the soon-to-be-19-year-old Andruw Jones was sent to play for the Durham Bulls, the Braves’ High-A affiliate. By mid-August, he blazed through the Carolina League, the Double-A Southern League, and the Triple-A International League, and debuted for the defending world champions. By October 20, with just 31 regular season games under his belt, he was a household name, having become the youngest player ever to homer in a World Series game — breaking Mickey Mantle’s record — and doing so twice at Yankee Stadium to boot.
Jones was no flash in the pan. The Braves didn’t win the 1996 World Series, and he didn’t win the ’97 NL Rookie of the Year award, but along with Chipper Jones (no relation) and the big three of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz, he became a pillar of a franchise that won a remarkable 14 NL East titles from 1991-2005 (all but the 1994 strike season). From 1998-2007, Jones won 10 straight Gold Gloves, more than any center fielder except Willie Mays. Read the rest of this entry »
Cubs Prospect Caleb Kilian Has Begun to Command Our Attention
Caleb Kilian made giant strides in 2021. Unranked as a San Francisco prospect at season’s start, the 24-year-old right-hander now profiles as one of the most promising arms in the Chicago Cubs system. The NL Central club acquired Kilian, along with outfielder Alexander Canario, in exchange for free-agent-to-be Kris Bryant at the July trade deadline.
The degree to which Kilian stepped up this year is apparent in his numbers. Pitching almost exclusively at the Double-A level, the 2019 eighth-round pick out of Texas Tech University put up a 2.42 ERA while allowing just 75 hits and 13 walks in 101 1/3 innings. Augmenting his signature plus command with increased velocity and an improved pitch mix, he punched out 112 batters.
Kilian’s repertoire revolves around a sinker and a cutter, the latter of which he began developing in the rookie-level Arizona League.
“It was early, almost right when I got there,” explained Kilian, who had pitched in a pair of College World Series with the Red Raiders. “When I got to pro ball, my slider was kind of just a worse curveball, so the Giants recommended a cutter. That way, I’d basically be throwing what felt like a fastball — same arm speed, just a different grip. I supinate with the ball anyway, so by turning it in my hand, it kind of just comes out naturally with cut.” Read the rest of this entry »
Top 49 Prospects: Chicago Cubs
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Chicago Cubs. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »
Job Posting: New York Yankees Advance Scouting Analyst
Position: Analyst, Advance Scouting
Location: Tampa, FL
The New York Yankees Organization is accepting applications for an Affiliate Advance Scouting Analyst. The Affiliate Analyst will be on staff, travelling with team and responsible for the day to day creation, education and implementation of high quality advance reports and provide analysis to players and coaches. The Analyst will utilize their data driven skill set to collaborate in a cross-functional environment. Read the rest of this entry »
Job Posting: New York Mets Systems Engineering Director
Position: Director, Systems Engineering
Summary:
Our Technology department delivers all technology solutions used within the organization. Our team is comprised of individuals that are highly proficient in their respective technology platforms, articulate, solution driven, client focused and proactive in building their technology skills. We are seeking an accomplished senior manager to lead the team focused on end-to-end service delivery from solutions design to operations. In this role, you will take on a wide range of responsibilities including establishing and driving the strategic and architectural direction of the team. You will be responsible for team leadership, ensuring that your team members are efficient, happy, and have opportunities to continue to learn and grow their careers. Read the rest of this entry »
Sunday Notes: Graham Spraker Was a Breakout Blue Jay in Double-A
Graham Spraker will be available when this year’s lockout-postponed Rule 5 draft is eventually held. The 26-year-old right-hander wasn’t added to the Toronto Blue Jays 40-man roster prior to last month’s deadline. While this was not exactly a surprise — the former 31st-round draft pick out of a DII school has never graced our prospect rankings — Spraker is nonetheless coming off an eye-opening season. In 31 relief outings, all but one of them at Double-A New Hampshire, the erstwhile Quincy University Hawk logged a 2.62 ERA and fanned 65 batters in 46-and-two-thirds innings.
Spraker’s breakout culminated in an award-winning stint in the Arizona Fall League. Pitching for the Mesa Solar Sox, the righty threw 11-and-a-third scoreless innings, allowing just four hits and a pair of walks, with 17 strikeouts. He was named the AFL’s Reliever of the Year at the conclusion of the campaign.
All that aside, just who is Graham Spraker?
“I am who I am,” the righty responded when asked about his pitching M.O. “I’ve changed a lot every year. I’m a pretty adaptable player — that’s why I’ve had success — but I feel that I’ve found a good blueprint now. It’s something I’m going to try to stick to for the rest of my career.” Read the rest of this entry »
Effectively Wild Episode 1783: The Rumor Chill
December 10, 2021
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the slow drip of baseball news during the lockout, why MLB’s competitive balance gets a bad rap, the Rays’ historic collective minor league winning percentage, and the difficulty of evaluating individual defense in the age of Statcast-based and non-Statcast-based metrics. Then (33:09) they continue their series of discussions of Korean baseball drama Stove League by breaking down Episodes 9–12. (Note: No spoilers beyond Episode 12.)
Audio intro: Superchunk, "Slow"
Audio outro: Michael Nesmith, "Propinquity (I’ve Just Begun to Care)"
Link to James Smyth’s parity thread
Link to Rob Mains on 2021 parity
Link to Ben on competitive balance
Link to Organization of the Year announcement
Link to story on record Rays winning percentage
Link to story about winning and player dev
Link to best minor league records of the 2010s
Link to story on Astros’ minor league winning
Link to Sam Miller on the best farm systems
Link to FanGraphs farm system rankings
Link to Effectively Wild Secret Santa
Link to The Rumor podcast
Link to first EW Stove League discussion
Link to second EW Stove League discussion
Link to basepaths bubble tunnel photo
Link to Stove League teaser video
Link to Stove League review
Link to stream Stove League via Kocowa
Link to stream Stove League via Viki
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