Landon Knack has been a beast when healthy. Selected in the second round of the 2020 draft by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of East Tennessee State University, the 24-year-old right-hander allowed 50 hits while fanning 82 batters over 62-and-a-third innings last year between High-A Great Lakes and Double-A Tulsa. Injuries limited his action. Knack missed the first month of his initial professional season with a hamstring strain, and later missed three weeks when the issue recurred.

He’s seen his 2022 season delayed by a month, as well. Hampered by what The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reported as “a minor soft tissue injury,” Knack has yet to take the mound. That will soon change. The hard-throwing hurler is expected to be activated by the Tulsa Drillers this weekend.

No. 12 on our newly-released Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospects list, Knack discussed his power arsenal late in the Arizona Fall League season.

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David Laurila: What stands out about what you’ve learned since joining the Dodgers organization?

Landon Knack: “I’ve learned a lot on how to adjust my pitches. I’ve learned to manipulate pitches a little bit to fit a better pitch profile, to get more swings and misses. The coaches and coordinators do a very good job of educating us, and making sure that we actually understand the numbers — understand what we’re looking at, and what we want to push toward with our individual pitching plans.”

Laurila: What is your repertoire right now, and what do you consider to be your best pitch? Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 973

On this episode, Eric Longenhagen welcomes old friend Keith Law of The Athletic back to the show to chat about the draft landscape.

Eric recently returned from a trip to Florida, and the duo discuss how challenging travel logistics continue to be while trying to see amateur players. We hear about impressive prospects like Jordan Beck, Drew Gilbert, Trey Lipscomb, and Sonny DiChiara, as well as how strong Tennessee looks and how Vanderbilt has been a surprising disappointment. Keith also talks about working on his Draft Top 100 list and reaching episode No. 100 of his own podcast.

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Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @dhhiggins on Twitter.

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 27 minute play time.)

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Tylor Megill got his no-hitter, after a fashion. After pitching the first five innings of a combined no-no in his previous start on April 29 against the Phillies — just the second no-hitter of any kind in the franchise’s 51-season history — the 26-year-old righty added another four consecutive hitless frames to his streak on Wednesday afternoon against the Braves before Adam Duvall’s fifth-inning single ended his streak. Megill and the Mets’ bullpen ended up faltering in the sixth inning, but the starter’s impressive run through the season’s first four weeks is a major reason why they own the National League’s best record thus far at 18–9 — all without the services of Jacob deGrom.

After a season in which deGrom didn’t throw a single competitive pitch in the second half due to what was eventually revealed to be a low-grade sprain of his ulnar collateral ligament, the Mets have been without his services so far due to a stress reaction in his right scapula. Last year’s loss of the two-time Cy Young winner played a significant part in sending the Mets’ season off the rails. They were 46–38 through July 7, the day of their ace’s final start, with a rotation ERA of 2.96, a FIP of 3.42, and a 4.5-game lead over the rest of the NL East field. From there, they went just 31–47 the rest of the way, with their starters pitching to a 4.93 ERA and 4.77 FIP, and finished 11.5 games out of first.

This year, it’s been a different story. Thanks in large part to Megill, free-agent addition Max Scherzer, trade acquisition Chris Bassitt, and a healthy Carlos Carrasco, Mets starters are currently ranked third in the NL in ERA (2.78), second in FIP (2.94), strikeout rate (26.8%), and strikeout-walk differential (20.2%), and first in innings (149) and WAR (3.2).

Though he was ultimately charged with three earned runs allowed in 5.1 innings after Adam Ottavino failed to bail him out of a bases-loaded jam, Megill was again impressive on Wednesday, as he’s been all season. He struck out a season-high nine batters, seven of them through a comparatively efficient four hitless innings, during which he used only 61 pitches; the only batters to reach during that span were Dansby Swanson in the third and Matt Olson in the fourth, both via walks. In doing so, he was the first Met to complete nine hitless innings since Matt Harvey on April 8 and 13, 2013, though deGrom did have a three-start stretch from June 11–21 of last season where he recorded 28 outs without yielding a hit.

Megill needed 22 pitches to get through a labor-intensive fifth inning, as Francisco Lindor committed an error on Travis d’Arnaud’s grounder before Duvall hit a clean single to left field. With two on and nobody out, he escaped on a Swanson fly ball and strikeouts of Guillermo Heredia and Ronald Acuña Jr. Even with that extra work, his 83 pitches through five was five fewer than he used during the combined no-hitter, during which he walked three and struck out five. Read the rest of this entry »

When the Red Sox traveled to Toronto in late April, they had to shuffle their roster around to comply with Canada’s vaccination entry requirements. The biggest impact was felt in their starting rotation, as Tanner Houck had to be placed on the restricted list due to his vaccination status. In his stead, Boston turned to Garrett Whitlock to make a start against the Blue Jays. It was actually Whitlock’s second start of the season; he had made a spot start for Rich Hill the week prior and made a third start yesterday against the Angels. In those three starts, he’s allowed just three runs while striking out 18 batters in 12 innings.

Whitlock’s first start in the major leagues was fantastic. He held the Rays to just a single hit in four innings while striking out seven. It took him just 48 pitches to carve through Tampa Bay’s lineup. In Toronto, he wasn’t as dominant, giving up one unearned run on four hits and two walks. He ended up laboring through just three innings, but threw 61 pitches, the most he’s thrown in a single game in the big leagues. Against the Angels, he struck out nine batters and allowed two hits including a two-run home run by Max Stassi. He was stretched out to 78 pitches on Wednesday evening and completed a strong five innings.

It’s a fascinating role change for Whitlock, who was arguably Boston’s best reliever in 2021. Last year, he put up a 1.96 ERA and a 2.84 FIP in 46 appearances out of the ‘pen with a phenomenal 4.76 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His success was all the more impressive given his path to the majors. Tommy John surgery and the canceled minor league season in 2020 had kept the former Yankees prospect off the mound since July of ’19. Because he was still rehabbing from his injury from the previous year, New York left him off their 40-man roster after the 2020 season in the hopes that he could sneak through without a recent scouting look, but Boston selected him in the Rule 5 draft. The Red Sox took a chance on his skills and minor league track record and found a gem. Read the rest of this entry »

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Happy Cinco de Mayo! I hope you’re all recovered from Cinco de Cuatro.

12:01

Dan Szymborski: Heh. Nothing, I’ve got a stomach ache.

12:02

Dan Szymborski: A lot of their highlights are likely going to be Suzuki related!

12:02

Dan Szymborski: Plus, not being the Reds is very nice.

Read the rest of this entry »

Jo Adell remains a work-in-progress. Drafted 10th overall out of a Louisville high school in 2017, the outfielder was rated the No. 1 prospect in the Los Angeles Angels system following his first full professional season, and he was just 21 years old when he made his major league debut in 2020 (he entered that season ranked fourth overall). The fast track hasn’t gone as smoothly as the Halos had hoped.

Adell scuffled during an extended COVID-year cameo, and last season he slashed a barely-scratching-the-surface-of-his-potential .246/.295/.408 following an August promotion. The current campaign has already featured a demotion. Unable to establish himself in a crowded Angels outfield, Adell — with a 95 wRC+ accompanying a ceiling that remains tantalizingly high — was sent down to Triple-A Salt Lake on Tuesday, with regular playing time a primary goal.

In the latest installment of our Talks Hitting series, Adell discussed the art and science of his mechanics and approach.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with a question I’ve begun some of my previous interviews with. Do you view hitting as more of an art, or more of a science?

Jo Adell: “A little of both. It’s an art in that everyone has their own way of doing it, their own style. There’s a little bit of science in the mix, with trying to figure out the best ways to attack certain guys. The approaches. So, I’d say art, physically — how you produce your swing, whether you’re a leg kick guy, a toe tap guy, or step forward guy — and then your game approach is the science.” Read the rest of this entry »

At FanGraphs, our headline WAR number for pitchers is based on FIP. Because of that, and because people enjoy debating and arguing, there’s a yearly refrain that you’ve probably heard. “FanGraphs pitching WAR only considers (X)% of what a pitcher does, how can that be used for value?” No one would dispute that year-one FIP does a better job of estimating year-two ERA than ERA does – or at least, not many people would – but the discussion around whether FIP does a good job of assigning year-one value is alive and well.

One reason for this view is pretty obvious. FIP considers home runs, strikeouts, walks, and hit batters to estimate pitcher production on an ERA scale. Our WAR does some fancy stuff in the background – it treats infield fly balls, which virtually never fall for hits, as strikeouts, and it adjusts for park and league. In the end, though, it’s estimating pitcher value using just three (well, actually four — HBPs always draw the short straw) outcomes. There are a lot of other outcomes in baseball!

In 2021, roughly 39% of plate appearances ended in a homer, strikeout, walk, hit batter, or infield pop up. One thing you could think, in recognition of that fact, is that FIP-based WAR doesn’t consider enough of a pitcher’s production. You wouldn’t use 40% of a hitter’s plate appearances to calculate their WAR, so why do it for pitchers? But that doesn’t actually make sense, as David Appelman pointed out to me recently. Assuming “average results on balls in play” is actually going to be pretty close for every pitcher, by definition. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a Madison Bumgarner ejection, players having to be held back, and sensual sticky-stuff inspections, the historically slow start of the Reds and Joey Votto’s response to a FanGraphs article about his season-opening slump, and a study on which teams improve pitchers. Then (24:10) they discuss how John T. Brush of the 1889 Indianapolis Hoosiers discovered the “times through the order” penalty, implemented midgame pitching changes, and was forced to abandon the tactic, as an object lesson in how change happens (or doesn’t happen) in MLB and beyond. Finally (53:10) they provide a potpourri of Stat Blasts on pitchers with a higher ERA+ than sum of batters faced, Kyle Schwarber and the best offensive performance by a player on the losing end of a no-hitter, Juan Soto and players who drive only themselves in, the highest-scoring game where every run scored on an out, the winning streak of Max Scherzer’s teams, “hitting your weight,” and home-run rates by day of the week, capped off by a cold call (1:11:10) to 95-year-old former major leaguer (and Stat Blast subject) Charlie Maxwell, who discusses learning from, throwing batting practice to, and being blocked by Ted Williams, hitting a pinch-hit grand slam off of Satchel Paige, helping the Tigers win more often when he was in the lineup, being clutch, hitting homers on Sundays, his many nicknames, how baseball has evolved since his playing days, and more.

Audio intro: AC/DC, “Hold Me Back”
Audio outro: Red Hot Chili Peppers, “Charlie”

Link to Bumgarner check video
Link to another Bumgarner video
Link to Bumgarner’s postgame comments
Link to Dan Szymborski on Votto
Link to Votto’s tweet
Link to Cameron Grove’s pitcher dev tweet
Link to Ben on pitcher limits
Link to John T. Brush’s SABR bio
Link to Brush’s B-Ref Bullpen page
Link to articles about Brush’s experiment
Link to 1889 Hoosiers schedule
Link to The Only Rule Is It Has to Work
Link to Ben on La Russa and the opener
Link to Hershberger’s SABR author page
Link to Hershberger’s book, Strike Four
Link to John Thorn’s foreword to Strike Four
Link to Stathead
Link to Stathead webinar info
Link to Tim Burke Stathead query
Link to story on Mets combined no-no
Link to Charlie’s SABR bio
Link to no-hit leverage-adjusted RE24 leaders
Link to no-hit RE24 leaders
Link to no-hit WPA leaders
Link to pitcher team win streaks
Link to highest-scoring “runs on outs” game
Link to “hitting your weight” data
Link to data on dingers and days of the week
Link to “with or without you” Stat Blast data
Link to “with or without you” Stat Blast episode
Link to story about Charlie’s 4-homer day
Link to story about Charlie’s Sunday slugging
Link to Charlie’s w/RISP split ranking
Link to story about Charlie’s Opening Day visit
Link to video about Charlie and Paw Paw
Link to average game time by year
Link to oldest living former major leaguers
Link to Ann’s obit
Link to EW wiki page on cold calls
Link to Cease prediction video

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Last fall, the Braves won a championship with an outfield that bore no resemblance to the one that they used for the first half of the 2021 season, as circumstances required president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos to perform an on-the-fly remake that yielded impressive results. In fact, two of the four outfielders he acquired in trade in July, Eddie Rosario and Jorge Soler, wound up winning MVP honors in the postseason, the former in the NLCS against the Dodges and the latter in the World Series against the Astros. Yet even with two of the principals whose absences necessitated that makeover — Ronald Acuña Jr. and Marcell Ozuna — back in action, this year’s outfield has been a major weakness for a team that has stumbled to an 11-15 start.

We’re still in small-sample territory to be sure — particularly with regards to the individual performances — but through Wednesday, Braves outfielders have hit a combined .191/.261/.331 for a 72 wRC+ in that role, the fifth-lowest mark in the majors. Worse, the team has dipped into the same player pool to cover its designated hitter spot, and they’ve done more sinking than swimming, hitting .171/.235/.226 for a 36 wRC+, the majors’ third-lowest mark. That lack of production has weighed down the team’s entire offense, which ranks 12th in the NL at 3.77 runs per game. Not to be outdone on the other side of the ball, Atlanta’s outfield is tied for last in the majors in both UZR (-6.3) and DRS (-7), though here I’ll remind everyone not to get overly-invested in four week’s worth of defensive metrics; both the outfield and DH spots are second-to-last in the majors in WAR, with -0.8 and -0.9, respectively. In Tuesday’s doubleheader loss to the Mets, their outfielders and DHs went a combined 4-for-28, though Travis Demeritte did drive in their only run that wasn’t accounted for by Matt Olson’s three-run homer, and Acuña collected one of their two extra-base hits outside of Olson’s pair. Read the rest of this entry »