In one of the oddest twists of the season, the Atlanta Braves have seen their playoff odds skyrocket after losing one of the league’s best players, Ronald Acuña Jr., to a torn ACL that prematurely ended his 2021 season. Now up to 81.9% odds of making the postseason from a low of a 7% chance — the 2019 Nationals never dipped under 22% in our projections — the Braves seem much more likely to be successful than not. And regardless of whether the season ends on a positive note, all of Atlanta’s key contributors are under team control in 2022 with one exception. But that exception is quite notable: 2020 National League MVP Freddie Freeman.

The general assumption around baseball — one that I also hold — has been that Freeman will of course be back with the Braves in 2022. After 12 seasons in Atlanta, during which Freeman was quite purposefully kept as the face of the team even while the Braves were aggressively rebuilding several years ago, seeing him in another uniform would just seem odd, almost on par with seeing Derek Jeter in Dodger Blue or Cal Ripken Jr. in green and gold. But the fates don’t care about looking bizarre, and the fact remains is that we’re entering mid-September, and player and team have yet come to an agreement on a contract extension. Jon Heyman reported on Thursday that there was still a gap between Freeman and the Braves:

Freddie Freeman and Braves have been talking but there’s still a gap so free agency appears a surprisingly strong possibility. Both sides want to get it done and that’s the likelihood eventually. Reminiscent of Turner/LAD and HOF Jeter/NYY talks, great FA who stayed. @MLBNetwork

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) September 9, 2021

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2:03

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chats. I’m just back from a bit more than 48 hours in Cooperstown for the Hall of Fame induction ceremony; I wrote about the Class of 2020’s long road there https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hall-of-fames-class-of-2020-nears-the-…

2:04

Jay Jaffe: While in Cooperstown I put together Twitter threads on the 10 Hall of Famers who died in 2020-21, each of whom I covered at FanGraphs Jay Jaffe @jay_jaffe 10 Hall of Famers died in 2020 and ’21. At Induction Day, the Hall of Fame paid tribute in a very well-done video mlb.com/video/remember… Earlier today, as I went through the Hall’s Plaque Gallery, I snapped photos of their plaques to link to tributes I wrote @fangraphs. (1/11) 9 Sep 2021

2:05

Jay Jaffe: and another of highlights of my 1-hour blaze through the Hall to see some old favorites and new exhibits Jay Jaffe @jay_jaffe So yesterday I blasted through the @baseballhall in an hour to visit a few favorite little spots and see a few new things. I snapped a bunch of photos along the way. Threading here. If you missed my tribute series to the 10 HOFers who passed in 2020-21, that’s here: Jay Jaffe@jay_jaffe 10 Hall of Famers died in 2020 and ’21. At Induction Day, the Hall of Fame paid tribute in a very well-done video mlb.com/video/remember… Earlier today, as I went through the Hall’s Plaque Gallery, I snapped photos of their plaques to link to tributes I wrote @fangraphs. (1/11) 9 Sep 2021

2:05	Jay Jaffe: Today I kicked off the annual Team Entropy series https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/team-entropy-2021-back-to-somewhat-nor…

2:05	Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show…

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These are notes on prospects from Tess Taruskin. Read previous installments of the Daily Prospect Notes here.

Johan Rojas, CF, Philadelphia Phillies
Level & Affiliate: High-A Jersey Shore Age: 21 Org Rank: 9 FV: 45
Line: 2-for-4, HR, 3 SB, K

Notes
Rojas was called up to High-A at the beginning of the month and has gone 12 for 30, slashing .400/.486/.633 since the promotion. He hit his second home run at the new level on Thursday, taking advantage of a hanging breaking ball and sending it over the left field fence. But perhaps most notable on Thursday were his three steals (two of second base and one of third). He hadn’t yet put his wheels on display at the higher level, stealing just one High-A bag prior to last night’s contest, but his speed was a prominent part of his pre-promotion profile; Rojas’ 25 swipes placed him within the top 20 base stealers in all of Low-A this season. Rojas’ plate discipline has long been a question, but his walk rate has been higher in 2021 than in previous seasons and for what it’s worth, he’s walked more than he’s struck out at High-A so far, meaning there’s reason to believe his power/speed combo could be bolstered with a more mature approach as he continues to develop. Read the rest of this entry »

Less than four weeks remain in the 2021 regular season, and while the coronavirus pandemic continues due to the Delta surge, MLB is back to some semblance of normalcy (though don’t tell that to the Red Sox). We’ve got a 162-game regular season, a comprehensible 10-team postseason format, the possibility of actual tiebreaker games being played if necessary — all of which were off the table last season — and no neutral sites. We’ve got some real playoff races as well, with the potential to produce end-of-season chaos.

Welcome back to Team Entropy. If you’re new here, don’t worry, I’ll catch you up.

A decade ago, during the wild 2011 races that resulted in the Rays and Cardinals snatching spots away from the collapsing Red Sox and Braves, respectively, on the season’s final day, I coined the phrase “Team Entropy” — taking a page from the Second Law of Thermodynamics, which states that all systems tend toward disorder — to describe the phenomenon of rooting for scenarios that produced such mayhem. I’ve returned to the concept annually, tracking the possibilities for end-of-season, multi-team pileups that would require MLB to deviate from its previously scheduled programming.

The idea is that if you’re a die-hard fan of a team trying to secure (or avoid blowing) a playoff spot, flag-waving for your squad of choice takes precedence, but if you’ve embraced the modern day’s maximalist menu of options that allow one not just to watch scoreboards but also to view multiple games on multiple gadgets, you want more. More baseball in the form of final-weekend division and Wild Card races. More baseball in the form of extra innings and tiebreaker scenarios topped with mustard and sauerkraut (though alas, the dastardly Manfred Man will still be mucking up those tiebreakers if they go past nine innings). You have TVs, laptops, tablets, and phones stacked like a Nam June Paik installation so you can monitor all the action at once. You want the MLB schedule-makers to contemplate entering the Federal Witness Protection Program instead of untangling once-far-fetched scenarios. If all that sounds familiar, you’re one of us. Read the rest of this entry »

In the years after being drafted by the Los Angeles Angels 10th overall in 2017, Jo Adell was one of the most exciting prospects in baseball. He spent the next few season flying up prospect lists around the industry; at FanGraphs, Adell ranked 66th overall in 2018, 11th in 2019, and fourth going into 2020. Last year, he made his much-hyped debut but it went about as poorly as 38 games and 132 plate appearances can go. He struck out a shocking 41.7% of the time, with an abysmal 29 wRC+. When combined with his surprisingly poor defense, he ended up being the least valuable player in baseball last season.

Adell spent his offseason retooling his swing and sharpening his defense. The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya had this to say about Adell’s changes:

“One day in the cage, he started to cut things down. He held his hands higher, reducing their movement before the pitch. He focused on putting his body in a position to consistently be on time and athletic, rotating through his hips to generate power instead of attempting to force it. He ditched his leg kick, opting for a toe tap that gave him more of a window to stay on time and on plane with a flatter overall approach.”

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I’ve always been a huge Darin Ruf fan, so getting to write about his 2021 success is a little bit more meaningful to me than it would be for almost any other player. Ruf is the last player I remember my grandfather singling out before he passed away, with the thought that Ruf, then a young prospect in the Phillies system, had the potential to be a productive big leaguer for our favorite team.

That was nine years ago. The Phillies promoted Ruf in late 2012 for his first cup of major league coffee, but he never amassed more than 297 plate appearances in any season for them. The bat was decent — Ruf posted a 105 wRC+ over 833 plate appearances, including a 125 wRC+ during his 2013 rookie season — but poor defensive numbers kept him barely above replacement-level in almost 300 games with Philadelphia. He was traded to the Dodgers in November of 2016, and even before he had an opportunity to make his organizational debut, Ruf’s contract was purchased by the Samsung Lions of the KBO. For three years, he raked in Asia, earning himself a minor league deal with the Giants for the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. (I was pretty excited.) A year later, he’s now the best hitter on a playoff-bound team (Kris Bryant is a notable omission from this list — he has a 119 wRC+ in 128 plate appearances with the Giants so far):

It’s no secret that the Giants have been receiving incredible production across their entire lineup. Their position players have posted a collective 113 wRC+ this season, a figure that ranks second in the majors among teams’ non-pitchers. But even in a lineup filled with players having above-average offensive seasons, Ruf stands out with his .279/.401/.544 slashline and 155 wRC+. That wRC+ ranks seventh in the majors among players with at least 250 plate appearances overall, sandwiched between Juan Soto (156) and Shohei Ohtani (154). That’s pretty phenomenal company, and it inspires two obvious questions. First, how did Ruf become one of the best hitters in baseball, at least this season? And, of course, how sustainable is this? Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 939

On this week’s episode, we talk to one of the radio voices for Cleveland before a conversation about the Dominican Winter League and its recent draft.

• To start us off, David Laurila welcomes Jim Rosenhaus, radio broadcaster for the soon-to-be Guardians. David and Jim discuss the club’s name change and the work that went into it, as well as the vast amount of work still to do. The pair also talk about Jim’s path to a major league microphone, including a number of impressive teams and players he covered along the way. We also hear about Cleveland’s World Series appearance in 2016, Terry Francona’s potential future in Cleveland and the Hall of Fame, and what it’s like to share a booth with Tom Hamilton. [2:52]
• After that, Eric Longenhagen is joined by Brendan Gawlowski to review the results of the LIDOM draft that occurred on Wednesday. The duo explain how the league and its draft work before detailing how each of the six clubs did and the impressive prospects who could see some playing time this winter. Eric and Brendan also rave about the league’s improved streaming access in recent years, as well as the many memorable players who can be seen playing there. [27:46]

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It’s Friday, so end your week the right way with another episode of Chin Music. I’m joined this week by the always affable Eric Longenhagen in the co-host chair. We begin by considering the very fun races for the NL West division crown and the AL’s Wild Card spots before discussing some movement at the major league executive level and the numerous hot starts of various 2021 draftees.

We’re then joined by special guest Liz Roscher of Yahoo Sports to discuss the 2021 Philadelphia Phillies and the years-long frustrations felt by both the team and their fans. From there it’s black metal talk, plus e-mails on scouting grades and the best minor league towns, catching up with Eric, and a plug for a way to watch better movies than what’s available in the mainstream.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Skaldr.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Salvador Perez’s power output, durability, defense, and career, Shohei Ohtani’s offensive slump, the Rays calling up Josh Lowe to go with Brandon Lowe (but not Nathaniel Lowe), and the desirability of being teammates with one’s brother or father, then draft unsung players who are having good seasons that haven’t been mentioned much on the pod.

Audio intro: Ages and Ages, "Unsung Songs"
Audio outro: John Prine, "Pretty Good"

Link to Patrick Dubuque on Perez
Link to Perez oppo homer video
Link to Jay Jaffe on Perez
Link to players with more homers than walks
Link to MLB.com on catcher home runs
Link to Craig R. Wright on Ted Simmons
Link to BP on Josh Lowe
Link to Craig on manager fathers
Link to MLBFrameJobs Twitter account
Link to MLBFrameJobs app
Link to Ben Clemens on Narváez
Link to Kevin Goldstein on the Rays
Link to DRaysBay on Springs
Link to Jake Mailhot on Sewald
Link to Lookout Landing on Sewald
Link to Chet Gutwein on Cease
Link to Dan Szymborski’s breakout picks
Link to pitcher run support leaderboard
Link to EW episode on Wainwright/Miley
Link to Patrick Dubuque on Miley
Link to Ben Clemens on Wainwright
Link to Devan Fink on Riley
Link to Ben on the Soto Shuffle

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In 2020, Carlos Santana had a down year. That happens to players all the time, and it’s particularly excusable in the pandemic season. Sixty games can make anyone look bad, and that’s before you get into the vast changes in routine. So while a .350 slugging percentage is obviously concerning, particularly from a first baseman, it’s nothing that you couldn’t hand-wave away by whispering his walk rate or xwOBA to yourself in a soothing voice.

In 2021, Carlos Santana is having a down year. If once is a coincidence, twice is a trend, and this certainly looks bad. The Royals’ problems don’t start at first base, but he certainly hasn’t been the answer there, and I’m skeptical that things will get better. Yes: Carlos Santana has turned into a pumpkin. Read the rest of this entry »