Harrison Bader is legitimately one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. By whichever advanced defensive metric you prefer, he ranks in the top 10 among all outfielders since his debut in 2017. But while his elite ability with the glove is clear, the value of his bat has been a bigger question mark. Entering this season, in just over 1,000 career plate appearances, he had posted a league- and park-adjusted offensive line five percent below league average, which isn’t too bad considering his reputation as a glove-first center fielder. This year, though, his wRC+ is up to 108 in 70 plate appearances, and his approach at the plate is completely different.

Bader had shown some promise with the bat in the minors and in his previous four seasons in the majors, peaking as the No. 8 prospect in the Cardinals’ organization back in 2018 with a tantalizing power/speed profile. But the concern for him, as he quickly worked through the minor leagues, was a propensity to swing and miss that led to high strikeout rates. That inability to make consistent contact didn’t get resolved once he got to the majors: Prior to this year, his career strikeout rate was 29.1%, and last year, he struck out a career-high 32.0% of the time.

Bader missed all of April after suffering a forearm injury during spring training. But since getting back on the field at the beginning of this month, he’s provided some surprising production for the Cardinals as their everyday centerfielder, already matching his home run total from last year in almost half the plate appearances. The biggest change has come in his approach at the plate. His strikeout rate has tumbled from that career-worst 32.0% last year all the way down to 12.9%; among batters with at least 100 plate appearances in 2020 and at least 70 plate appearances in ’21, his huge decrease in strikeout rate is by far the largest in baseball. He’s also struck out in exactly as many plate appearances as he’s drawn a walk so far this season.

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Not everyone is interested in projecting the future, but one common thread in much of modern analytics in this regard is the attempt to describe a volatile thing, such as a play in baseball, using something less volatile, such as an underlying ability. This era arguably began with Voros McCracken’s DIPS research that he released 20 years ago to a wider audience than just us usenet dorks. Voros’ thesis has been modified with new information, and people tend to say (mistakenly) that he was arguing that pitchers had no control over balls in play, but DIPS and BABIP changed how we looked at pitcher/defense interaction more than any peripheral-type of number preceding it.

One of the things I want to try to project is what types of performance lead to the so-called Three True Outcomes (home run, walk, strikeout) rather than just tallying those outcomes. For example, what type of performances lead to strikeouts? I’m not just talking about velocity and stuff, but the batter-pitcher interactions at the plate — things like a pitcher’s contact percentage, which for pitchers with 100 batters faced in consecutive years from 2002 has a similar or greater r^2 to itself (0.53) than either walk rate (0.26) or strikeout rate (0.51) does. Contact rate alone has an r^2 of 0.37 when comparing it to the future strikeout rate.

As it turns out, you can explain actual strikeout rate from this synthetic estimate quite accurately, with an r^2 in the low 0.8 range.

Statcast era data works slightly better; the version of zSO which has that data is at 0.84, and the one that predates Statcast data is at 0.80. Cross-validating using repeated random subsampling (our data is limited, as there’s no “other” MLB to compare it to) yields the same results.

Like the various x measures in Statcast, these numbers shouldn’t be taken as projections in themselves. While zSO projects future strikeout rate slightly more accurately than the actual rate itself does, a mixture of both gets a better r^2 (0.59 for the sample outlined above) than either does on its own. Looking at zSO alone as a useful leading indicator, however, gives us an idea of which players may be outperforming or underperforming their strikeout rates so far this season. All numbers are through Wednesday night.

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In the war for the NL Central, the Cardinals are leading the charge. Their robust 25-18 record is no stroke of luck – per our BaseRuns standings, they’ve outperformed their theoretical win total by just one. Breaking this down further, the pitching has done most of the heavy lifting. Jack Flaherty has become that ace who’s going to ace, Kwang Hyun Kim has upped his strikeout rate thanks to a refined slider, and John Gant (!) has a 2.08 ERA in 39.2 innings. Gant is also leading major league baseball with 28 walks, but hey, the Cardinals will take it.

The offense isn’t bad – it has managed 4.29 runs per game, which is about the league average. It might have been worse, however, if not for Yadier Molina. The legendary catcher somehow has a 138 wRC+, the second-highest amongst Cardinals hitters with at least 50 plate appearances. His defense is no longer an asset, but he’s more than made up for lost value by swinging a hot bat.

But sure, this isn’t the first time Molina has gone on an offensive tear. Looking at 25-game stretches of wOBA dating back to 2018, we can see the many peaks and valleys that have shaped his production: Read the rest of this entry »

In eight of the 12 different count-states, fouls and whiffs come with the same penalty: a strike. In a 1–1 count, for example, it really doesn’t matter whether you look silly swinging and missing at a curveball or just miss a home run by being a few inches wide of the foul pole. In either case, hitters have to come back for another swing, with the count now 1–2.

We all know this. Those are just the rules of the game. But it creates a very interesting hierarchy for hitters. When a hitter swings, only one of three things can happen: He can put the ball in play, foul it off, or whiff. And, as mentioned, for two-thirds of those outcomes — the foul and the whiff — no distinction is even made in eight of the 12 count-states. No wonder that the league-average hitter, by run value, is penalized when he swings.

But fouls have a unique property that makes them wholly different than whiffs: the ability to prolong at-bats. In the same way that you can’t lose on a serve in ping pong, you can’t strike out on a foul ball (bunts excluded). While they carry the same penalty as whiffs in all non–two-strike counts, foul balls manage to be the only safety net for hitters when their backs are against the wall, and to me, it makes for a pretty interesting dichotomy when you break it down that way.

Because foul balls provide this special safety net for hitters, it would make sense intuitively that hitters who foul off more pitches probably strike out less. If a hitter fouls off a lot of pitches, especially relative to the number of whiffs he creates, he is almost certainly going to avoid a K and eventually should get a pitch to put in play. Indeed, there is a pretty strong correlation between foul-to-whiff ratio and strikeout rate:

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It’s Friday, so it’s Chin Music time. The co-host chair returns to New York yet again, as the always entertaining Andy Mccullough, senior writer for The Athletic, joins me for two hours of mostly baseball. We start with the news of the day and talk about the rash of no-hitters, the rash of injuries, the rash of good teams in the American League East, and how we’re perfectly fine with the Dodgers signing Albert Pujols. We’re then joined by special guest Herb Lawerence, Chicago radio veteran and host of the Locked on Sox podcast, to discuss a very good White Sox team and the constant distractions created by Tony La Russa. Herb has some thoughts, and he doesn’t hold back. Then it’s emails about trade partners, the CBA, umpires, and Tommy Lee Jones, before getting into a Moment of Culture, catching up with Andy, and then departing.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by the amazing French noise/punk trio Decibelles.

Have a question you’d like answered on the show? Ask us anything at chinmusic@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

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Episode 923

On this week’s episode, we’re talking to a pair of pitchers before discussing a future Hall of Famer changing uniforms.

• At the top of the show, David Laurila is joined by Oakland A’s left-hander Cole Irvin and Houston Astros right-hander Colin McKee to talk about their craft. Irvin and McKee explain what kind of Statcast data they like to utilize — and what they don’t — and how they can use analysis to continue to develop on the mound. They also discuss teaching pitching in the offseason, how spin affects pitchers in various ways, variety in long-toss exercises, and the differences between pitching in the rotation and the bullpen. [2:27]
• After that, Jason Martinez and Jay Jaffe get together to discuss Albert Pujols joining the Los Angeles Dodgers. Jay recently wrote about the move, and he and Jason go over what kind of impact Pujols could make for the defending champions. Can he still hit lefties well enough to make a difference? And how will this potentially affect his legacy? Jason and Jay ponder the possibilities of Pujols’ future and reflect on the influence he has had on the game and its players. [28:17]

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These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Games from 5/18

Terrin Vavra, MIF/CF, Baltimore Orioles
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Bowie Age: 24 Org Rank: 9  FV: 45
Line: 3-for-3, 2 BB, HR
Notes
This makes five consecutive multi-hit games for Vavra. Cursory video analysis shows no change in his swing or physicality; he’s just on an epic early-season heater and should probably be at Triple-A. The real development here is his defensive movement: After playing both middle infield spots with Colorado, he’s now also getting reps in center field with Baltimore. Those who miss and appreciate all-fields contact will love Vavra, who is very adept at hitting outside pitches to the opposite field. He projects as a good multi-positional role player. Read the rest of this entry »

Prospect writers Kevin Goldstein and Eric Longenhagen will sometimes have enough player notes to compile a scouting post. This is one of those dispatches, a collection of thoughts after another week of college baseball and minor league play. Remember: prospect rankings can be found on The Board.

Eric’s Notes

Wes Kath, SS, Desert Mountain High School

High schoolers with profiles driven by their hit tool are becoming more sought-after in the draft room, and every year there are guys who don’t light up the showcase circuit workouts with big tools and instead need some combination of time and impressive swing-and-miss data to be appreciated. Kath is one of those players. On Tuesday, his high school won the Arizona 5A State Championship as Kath homered and reached base several times. He has a sweet lefty swing and advanced bat control, as well as a good baseball frame. He’s currently a shortstop and is capable of making routine plays there, with a sufficient arm for short and good body control, but his size and slow-twitch movements might push him to third base, and some scouts think he’ll eventually end up at first. Kath does not have big bat speed, and his swing tends to look long when he offers at lower pitches, but that’s what has to happen for him to get the barrel there with lift. West Coast hit tool guys like this tend to sign for close to $1 million.

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Jordan Westburg is a promising young hitter off to a good start in his first professional season. Drafted 30th overall last year out of Mississippi State University, the 22-year-old infielder is slashing .364/.482/.591 in 56 plate appearances for the low-A Delmarva Shorebirds. In the words of our own Eric Longenhagen, Westburg has been doing his damage with “a short, compact [right-handed] swing that is geared for contact at the top of the zone.”

Westburg — No. 8 on our Baltimore Orioles Top Prospects list — talked hitting prior to Wednesday’s game against the Carolina Mudcats.

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David Laurila: We’re going to talking hitting, but let’s start with getting hit. Do you ever get asked about how often you get plunked by pitches?

Jordan Westburg: “I got asked that when I was in college. The simple answer is that I’m probably crowding the plate a little bit, and when guys try to come in hard on me, sometimes they miss their spot. But yeah, I’ve always had a knack for being hit by pitches, for whatever reason. I’m kind of a ball magnet. That’s kind of followed me into pro ball — I’ve already been hit a few times so far this season — but I don’t mind them, especially with two strikes. Bring them on. I’ll take the on-base percentage over strikeouts any day.”

Laurila: Brandon Guyer comes to mind.

Westburg: “Oh, yeah. There’s something to be said about just taking those HBPs. If a pitcher is going to make a mistake… I mean, it’s the same as if he leaves a fastball over the middle and you hammer it. You’re getting on base to start something for your team.”

Laurila: Is there an art to getting hit by pitches? Read the rest of this entry »

For the better part of five years, Corey Kluber was borderline unhittable. At his double-Cy-Young peak, he was a one-man dead ball era, putting up a 2.85 ERA even as offensive numbers exploded across the league. Though he never closed the deal, he felt like a threat to pitch a no-hitter every time he started.

Kluber isn’t the same pitcher he once was. His walk rate is nearly double where it sat in those halcyon years; his strikeout rate has declined. His fastball doesn’t always crest 90 mph anymore. But he still has that same vicious cutter/slurve combination that powered his ascent, and let’s be honest with each other: This year, nearly every pitcher feels like a threat to throw a no-hitter every time out.

Kluber no-hit the Rangers last night, a capstone achievement that will forever feel slightly out of place with the arc of his career. That’s not to discount the moment: He was excellent last night. He worked off of his slurve rather than vice versa; he threw 31 of them and only 23 sinkers. From the start of the game, he was placing the pitch exactly where he wanted it, befuddling the Rangers’ lineup:

Kluber’s ceaseless desire to fill up the zone worked in his favor last night. He drew a whopping 25 called strikes, a number he hadn’t surpassed since his glory days. Batters step in against him wondering which breaking ball he’ll embarrass them with, which is a truly awful mindset to take into at-bats against a strike-throwing machine, but that’s always been his unique gift: He throws so many pitches that break at so many strange angles, putting batters at a disadvantage right from the jump.
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