This is Part Two of the May edition of my monthly column in which I recap what’s been going on in the Korean Baseball Organization on both a league- and team-wide scale. In case you missed it, Part One discussed league-wide trends, then covered the SSG Landers, LG Twins, Samsung Lions, and NC Dinos. Today’s post will cover the remaining six teams. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them as comments or reach out to me via Twitter. Without further ado, let’s talk some KBO!

Team Notes

KT Wiz

If there was any doubt regarding Baek-ho Kang 강백호’s superstar status, this season has blown it away. Through 52 games, the young first baseman is batting over .400. He’s second in the league in wRC+ and first in Batting WAR. What’s his secret? Kang doesn’t have overwhelming raw power – our Eric Longenhagen assigned it a 55 grade – but he’s consistent enough with what he has to sustain a high BABIP. He’s also extremely picky during at-bats, fouling and taking unfavorable pitches before pouncing on one he likes. Here’s a graphical representation of his swing decisions last season (courtesy of Statiz):

That’s some excellent selective aggression. Kang’s swing rates are in the 80s on in-zone pitches, but they drop dramatically on anything outside. He’s seeing and hitting the ball so well that in one game, the Lotte Giants introduced an extreme infield shift covering Kang’s pull-side. And what does he do? Why, he executes two perfect bunts the other way for hits, of course. Later that game, he deposited an 88 mph fastball into right field to go 3-for-5 overall. At this point, Kang’s defense is his only weakness. I think he ends up as a DH if he decides to tackle major league baseball, but he’ll mash enough to be at least a solid regular. Read the rest of this entry »

Building off yesterday’s National League scripts for teams’ reach-out calls, today I move on to the American League.

American League East

Tampa Bay Rays

Obviously, we don’t have a ton of room to add in terms of budget. There are some right-handed hitting first baseman out there who could be good fits for us without adding too much to our payroll. We love what Kevin Kiermaier brings to the clubhouse and with his glove, but we could use a center field upgrade. As usual, we have a bunch of no-name relievers pitching like stars, and there are some ‘pen arms out there who check our data boxes who might be of interest, but only if the price is right.

Boston Red Sox

We’re surprised we’re here, too, but we’re also convinced this team is good, so we’re looking to bolster the roster. Our biggest issue is first base, as we can’t afford to keep throwing Bobby Dalbec out there and clearly need an upgrade. With Franchy Cordero cratering and Enrique Hernández not hitting, an outfield piece that allowed us to move Hernández back to more of a utility role, where we think he’d be more productive, would interest us. We’re quite happy with our pitching, but like the rest of the world, we have some bullpen targets to improve upon our depth there. Read the rest of this entry »

Tyler O’Neill’s batting line doesn’t make any sense. I don’t mean that in a good or bad way, though I’m sure a line like his will elicit bad feelings in plenty of people. That line, just for the record, is .278/.309/.611, with a 2.6% walk rate and 34.2% strikeout rate. As you might surmise from the silly slugging percentage, he’s clubbed 13 home runs already this season, which would put him on pace for 52 in 600 plate appearances. True outcomes? Tyler O’Neill is a champion of truth.

Strikeouts and home runs have always gone together. Babe Ruth is the all-time true-outcome leader when compared to his era. But O’Neill kicks it into overdrive. Most sluggers use their prodigious power to get on base; they draw walks because pitchers are afraid to face them in the strike zone. O’Neill, again, is walking 2.6% of the time. That would be the worst rate in baseball if he qualified for the batting title, tied with Salvador Perez.

Nothing I’m saying here is particularly new. O’Neill’s 34.2% strikeout rate is virtually identical to his career mark. His 37.1% home run per fly ball rate will surely come down, but his career mark is 23.3%. His maximum exit velocity on the year is exactly identical to his previous career mark. Why write about him now? Read the rest of this entry »

I am an absolute sucker for baseball history. Hours upon hours have been lost to deep dives into the SABR Bio Project or the spiraling wormhole that is Wikipedia. It’s amazing what little nuggets of strange-but-true ephemera you can unearth as you sink into over a hundred years of baseball. If you’ve watched Ken Burns: Baseball, you’ll know that even 10 episodes is not enough time to cover the breadth of what the sport is and what it has achieved.

Because the game’s history is so rich and expansive, there’s a habit, as with all history, to pick and choose the aspects of the historical record that best fit with the present tone. We may have even been convinced it started with Abner Doubleday, as popular myth has long-contended. But as it turns out not even Doubleday himself ever made any such claim, and in digging into the roots of where baseball really began, I found that the answer might fall much further north than previously believed, with a game in Ontario, Canada, that may just be the first game of baseball ever played in North America.

If you look at the origins of baseball, it is generally believed that the first game took place in Cooperstown, New York, in 1839. An account from Abner Graves was the source for this claim, but there are a lot of issues when you approach it with any real historical method. For one, Abner Doubleday never visited Cooperstown and definitely did not do so in 1839, when he was attending West Point. Add to this that Abner Graves was only five years old in 1839, and that in his later years he was confined to a ward for the criminally insane after murdering his wife, and you might begin to understand why we perhaps should not take his version of history at face value.

As I researched Canadian baseball’s history for another piece, I came across a mention of a story about a game very similar to baseball, played in Beachville, Ontario. In an 1886 letter, Dr. Adam Enoch Ford recounted attending an event that “closely resembled our present national game” a full year before Doubleday was credited with inventing it. The game in question took place on June 4, 1838, and as you’ll see from the excerpts that follow, it may not be exactly baseball as we know it, but it’s definitely more like it than a game that never actually happened in Cooperstown in 1839. Read the rest of this entry »

Bobby Miller doesn’t lack for confidence, and for good reason. Ranked No. 8 on our Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospects list, the 22-year-old right-hander pairs electric stuff with a first-round pedigree. Selected 29th overall last year out of the University of Louisville, Miller excelled against SEC competition, and he’s gotten off to an excellent start in pro ball. Pitching for the High-A Great Lakes Loons, he’s allowed just eight hits and two runs, with 17 strikeouts, in five starts comprising 14.1 innings.

Miller talked about his growth as a pitcher, and the power arsenal he takes to the mound, following his last outing.

———

David Laurila: How would you describe yourself as a pitcher?

Bobby Miller: “I’d like to say I’m the most confident person out there. Other than that, I have velocity and a lot of other pitches. I’m four-seam, two-seam, changeup, slider, curveball. I’m also working on a different slider right now. But yeah, I’m always going to bring the energy out there. No doubt about that. I think that’s a good way to describe me.”

Laurila: Is being “the most confident guy out there” ever a negative?

Miller: “No, I don’t think so. Not at all. I think it can help pick the rest of our team up, as well. Depending on how the game is going… maybe it’s a super-close game. I like to show how confident I am.”

Laurila: How about when you’re getting hit? Are you going to keep challenging hitters?

Miller: “I’m always going to keep challenging hitters, no matter how good or bad I’m doing. Whatever is working for me best that day, I’m going to stick with that until they prove they can do something with it. If they do, then I start going to my other stuff.”

Laurila: Do you identify as a power-pitcher? Read the rest of this entry »

On Friday night in San Diego, the Padres got an all-too rare glimpse of the version of Blake Snell that they hoped they had traded for in December. Facing the Mets — admittedly, an injury-weakened version of the team, but one that has nonetheless led the NL East for the past four weeks — Snell made his longest start in over two years and threw seven innings of one-hit shutout ball while striking out 10, that after being battered for 12 runs in 6.2 innings over his previous two starts.

Facing a lineup that was without Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, Jeff McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo due to injuries, and that contained just two regulars with a wRC+ of 100 or better (this qualifier should sound familiar), Snell retired the first 14 Mets he faced before walking Billy McKinney, one of the lineup’s two lefties. He didn’t yield a hit until Francisco Lindor led off the seventh with a single to left field that bounced past Tommy Pham and went to the wall as Lindor took third, a two-base error that put the tying run 90 feet from home. Undaunted, Snell struck out James McCann, retired Alonso on a pop foul, and then struck out Brandon Drury on three pitches to complete a stellar night’s work. The Padres held on to win, 2-0.

Snell’s 101 pitches were the most he’d thrown in a single start this season; he’d gone 95 twice and 97 once, but hadn’t reached 100 since he threw 108 last September 22 against the Mets, one of three times he reached 100 pitches. In terms of innings, Friday’s outing was Snell’s longest since April 2, 2019, when he threw seven shutout innings against the Rockies while allowing just two hits. He didn’t complete six innings in any of his 11 starts last year, and had done so just once this year, on May 18 against an even more moribund version of the Rockies. Read the rest of this entry »

It was a Fourth of July spectacle in Boston in 1948: the final game of a three-game set between the Red Sox and Connie Mack’s Philadelphia Athletics, the latter just a half-game behind Cleveland in the American League race. The Red Sox had failed to muster much of any offense against the A’s in the previous two games, losing by scores of 4-2 and 8-2. This final contest, though, was proving more competitive. A’s starter Carl Scheib held the Red Sox to just a run through the first four innings; the Red Sox’s Ellis Kinder held the A’s scoreless. The Red Sox added another run in the fifth; the A’s answered by taking a one-run lead in the top of the sixth. The Red Sox got three more runs back in the bottom of the inning, giving them the lead once again, and knocking Scheib out of the game. The A’s tied it up again in the top of the seventh. For a brief, peaceful moment, the score was a calm, reasonable 5-5.

I mentioned that Scheib had been knocked out of the game in the sixth. The reliever responsible for the last out of the inning was a rookie by the name of Charles Harris, also known as Charlie, or Charley, or, apparently, Bubba. Charlie Harris was 22 years old, and since making his debut in April of that year, had been a very reliable reliever for Mack’s team. He even pitched a scoreless seven-inning hold. Entering the July 4 game in the bottom of the seventh, he had a 1.09 ERA.

Ted Williams led off the inning with a walk. A bunt single followed, then another walk. Yet another walk gave the Red Sox the lead. Four batters in, and it was clear that Harris didn’t have it — he had never before walked more than two batters in a pitching appearance. But Mack left him in. It was Harris’s inning, and Harris needed to finish it. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter (sans spoilers) about baseball movie A Quiet Place Part II, Eric Sogard sliding over first base, a Travis Jankowski TOOTBLAN, Miguel Sanó repeatedly predicting success, and Jesse Winker raking, then consider whether it’s actually “unfortunate” that the first true two-way player in ages is as good as Shohei Ohtani, answer listener emails about the two-way-player Mendoza Line and whether pitcher Ohtani or hitter Ohtani would win a head-to-head matchup, and conclude with an in-depth discussion about what might happen and what we’ll learn if MLB does crack down on foreign-substance usage.

Audio intro: Dawes, "Crack the Case"
Audio outro: Bachelor, "Aurora"

Link to Sogard slide
Link to Jankowski TOOTBLAN
Link to Twins triple play
Link to 2017 Sanó triple play prediction
Link to 2021 Sanó triple play prediction
Link to Sanó 3-homer-game prediction
Link to Sanó 2014 season prediction
Link to list of players with multiple 3-homer games
Link to Devan Fink on Winker
Link to Jeremy Frank tweet about Ohtani
Link to R.J. Anderson on Ohtani vs. Ohtani
Link to video of Ohtani facing himself in VR
Link to Buster Olney on MLB’s crackdown
Link to Ken Rosenthal on Joe West and MLB
Link to Bauer’s Players’ Tribune piece
Link to Bauer on morals
Link to Dylan Hernández on Bauer and the Dodgers
Link to Fabian Ardaya on Bauer and spin
Link to The Athletic on Spider Tack
Link to Ben on foreign substances
Link to SI on foreign substances
Link to Travis Sawchik on foreign substances

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There are myriad reasons why the San Francisco Giants have been causing trouble in the NL West this season, crashing what was expected to be an exclusive party for the Padres and Dodgers. One of them is the starting rotation, which generally ranks in the top five in baseball whether you go by simple stats like ERA (third) and ERA- (fourth) or peripheral ones like FIP (second). Of the starting pitchers, none stands taller than Kevin Gausman, once a highly a touted Orioles prospect who has spent most of the last decade as a breakout candidate but hadn’t had that one big season. Wel, it appears he’s having it now.

At the top of the major-league leaderboards, there’s a lot of Gausman. Only Jacob deGrom has a better ERA among qualifiers, and that pitcher is having what could be a year for the ages. Gausman’s sixth in WAR, fifth in FIP, seventh in swinging strikes, and 10th in contact rate. And while he’s not likely to finish the year with an ERA anywhere near his current microscopic 1.27, his 2.20 FIP is an easy career-best so far and not explained entirely by the drop in league-wide offense.

So, what has changed for Gausman? The most obvious difference in the stats is the drop in home run total, a particular bugaboo for him at various points in his career. Playing in San Francisco instead of Baltimore has undoubtedly helped alleviate that concern, as has the decline in home runs in 2021, but just as with his overall FIP, it’s not just the environment. ZiPS’ peripheral home run estimator, zHR, sees his “true” home run rate as 2.1% of plate appearances, compared to his actual 1.7%. There’s been an interesting shift here; prior to 2020, ZiPS saw Gausman as the sixth-largest underperformer in terms of home runs allowed, allowing 130 homers where zHR expected to see only 108. Since joining the Giants, they’ve been a perfect match (13 homers vs. 13 zHR). Read the rest of this entry »

This is Part One of the May edition of my monthly column, in which I recap what’s been going on in the Korean Baseball Organization on both a league- and team-wide scale. In case you missed them, be sure to check out Parts One and Two of my April recap. If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments or reach out to me via Twitter. Also, don’t forget to check out our expanded KBO stats offering!

Without further ado, let’s talk some KBO.

Standings

League Trends

The League Has Split Into Two Groups

As evidenced by the standings, we’re starting to see a division between the contenders and the bottom-dwellers. The Landers, Twins, Lions, Wiz, Dinos, Bears, and Heroes are all within a few games of each other, while the Tigers, Eagles, and Giants have fallen behind.

Still, this is weird. There’s usually an even gap between each team; rarely does the league split into clear haves and have-nots. The parity of the first month or so has simply been partitioned into two groups, with teams fighting for the upper hand as we enter the heat of summer. It’s good fun, and I especially enjoy the Korean media’s attempts at celebrating the ascendance of team X, only for team Y to dethrone it the next week.

So who ultimately joins the group of five headed for the playoffs? It’s early, but I’d pick (in no particular order) the Dinos, Twins, Bears, and Wiz, with a toss-up between the Lions and Heroes for the final spot. Next, it’s time to check on the individual teams. Have they been good? Bad? Just hanging in there? Find out below:

Team Notes

SSG Landers

When I first wrote about the Landers, I blasted them for hogging the fifth place spot with a shoddy run differential. One month later, they’re in first. Nostradamus, I am not. The run differential is still negative, but it’s better than before – I’ll give them credit for that. All-Star third baseman Jeong Choi 최정 went on an absolute tear in May, slashing .357/.495/.743 with seven home runs. I underestimated Wilmer Font 폰트 in my initial recap, but he’s blossomed into an ace. Here’s footage from his most recent start, in which he struck out 12 and didn’t issue a walk:

As the GIF shows, Font’s repertoire is anchored by a fastball that touches 98 mph and a 12-6 curveball with massive vertical drop. He throws a slider, too, which looks average at best but does generate whiffs. He drastically reduced his sinker usage in recent starts in favor of the four-seamer, which could explain the uptick in strikeouts. Barring a sudden collapse, Font looks to be the Landers’ No. 1 starter moving forward.

But the team isn’t without strife. After removing himself from a start due to right elbow pain, submariner Jong-hun Park 박종훈 flew to LA to receive a diagnosis from Dr. ElAttrache (uh-oh). The Landers have replaced foreign pitcher Artie Lewicki, whose health issues became apparent, with Sam Gaviglio. So at least for now, the team lacks two reliable starters.

Meanwhile, I want to direct your attention towards Shin-Soo Choo 추신수’s .268/.427/.451 line. After posting an uncharacteristically low BABIP in April and parts of May despite hard contact, Choo’s batted balls have begun to land for hits. He isn’t hitting for consistent power, a fact that’s garnered criticism. It seems unjustified, though; his career slugging percentage stateside was .447. Choo’s value lies in his plate discipline, and it’s been on full display en route to a 143 wRC+. He’s doing his best.

LG Twins

Most of what I wrote about the Twins last month is still relevant: The bullpen is excellent, and while Roberto Ramos 라모스 is finding his footing, this is still one of the league’s best teams. Since then, they’ve become even better. I noted that the rotation beyond Andrew Suárez and Casey Kelly 켈리 was bare. But Woo-chan Cha 차우찬, who hadn’t pitched for nearly a year due to injuries, made a successful comeback with five scoreless frames. Twenty-year-old Min-ho Lee이민호 has settled in as a fifth starter, and veteran righty Chan-heon Jeong 정찬헌 has been solid with a 4.42 FIP.

In addition, I’m surprised by how useful the team’s depth has become. Bo-gyeong Moon 문보경 was called up this season to share first base with Ramos, and it’s Moon’s ability to draw walks that has mitigated the position’s weakness. The Twins have two fantastic options at right field. Hyung-jong Lee 이형종 is a consistent pull-hitter with 20 home run potential, and Eun-seong Chae 채은성 has a 144 wRC+ this season via a higher rate of line drives.

Rhe Twins also have breakout stars who are continuing their success in 2021. The most notable example is outfielder Chang-ki Hong 홍창기. After playing in just 38 games from 2016-19, he became the team’s everyday center fielder in 2020 and excelled, posting a 126 wRC+. Similar to Moon, his greatest asset is plate discipline, and it’s scary to think it might have improved. Hong has 43 walks against 27 strikeouts this season, for an on-base percentage of .457; that’s third-best in the league. The team as a whole has the KBO’s highest strikeout-to-walk ratio, hinting at an organizational philosophy.

Samsung Lions

The Lions have followed up on their torrid April start, and they don’t seem out of place at third. That being said, I’m slightly worried that cracks will begin to form. For example, I do think Tae-in Won 원태인 is legitimately good, but batters are figuring out his changeup and are making more contact against it. Jose Pirela and Minho Kang 강민호 have the team’s best and third-best wRC+ respectively, but it seems like their production has been driven by grounders, which is less ideal even in the KBO.

David Buchanan 뷰캐넌 has been a rock solid ace. The team hoped for Chae-heung Choi 최채흥 to successfully rejoin the rotation, but a few disastrous starts have shown that he’s nowhere near ready; it could be that the effects of his injury still linger. Speaking of injury, the Lions signed Mike Montgomery to a one-year deal after it became necessary for Ben Lively 라이블리 to undergo surgery on his shoulder. It’s a decision that should have fans excited given Montgomery’s pedigree. I’m also optimistic about his pitching style, which prioritizes soft contact over strikeouts and reminds me of Aaron Brooks or Eric Jokisch.

In the bullpen, Seunghwan Oh 오승환 is still closing out games despite a heater that now averages 90 mph. He’s been effective, too, with a 2.57 ERA and 3.42 FIP. The longevity of his career is awe-inspiring, and I hope he has a few years left in the tank – watching him lob fastballs down the pipe is a can’t-miss KBO experience. He’s accompanied by 36-year-old Kyumin Woo 우규민, who has technically been the Lions’ best relief arm. It’s great to see the former-starter-turned-reliever receive the spotlight.

NC Dinos

See, there’s no need to worry about our swole daddy overlords. The Dinos are just two games behind first, with more runs scored than any other team. Among the many standouts in the Dinos’ lineup, Euiji Yang 양의지 deserves his own paragraph. First, his offensive line is ridiculous: .360/.475/.646, which works out to a 196 wRC+. Here are some frequently asked questions about him:

• Is he a first baseman or a designated hitter? He’s a catcher, though he does occasionally DH to preserve his strength.
• Does that mean his defense is lacking? Several pitchers, including foreigners, have praised his ability to call games.
• He must be in his prime then, right? About that – Yang turned 34 this year. Overall, if you fused Joe Mauer’s contact, Mike Piazza’s power, and Yadier Molina’s defense into one athlete, the end result would be Euiji Yang. He struck out once in May while slugging above .700. As a 34-year old catcher.

But enough fanboying on my end. Once again, the pitching has been an issue for this team, though it’s at least looking up. Min-hyeok Shin 신민혁, who I covered last month, has indeed become a reliable starter. Wes Parsons’ pre-season injury didn’t lead to a dramatic decline in performance; his FIP (3.31) is lower than his ERA (4.13) and that, along with an elite strikeout rate (by KBO standards) of 27.1%, suggests that he can be a No. 2 starter.

The Dinos snagged last-standing free agent pitcher Yongchan Lee to bolster their bullpen, which is currently seventh in WAR. And best of all, after multiple setbacks and murky progress reports, Chang-mo Koo 구창모 finally appeared in a one-inning rehab start. His velocity was down as expected, but manager Dong-wook Lee 이동욱 expressed his satisfaction with the outing. If Koo can recapture some of the magic of his 2020 campaign, that’s one less worry for the Dinos.

Part Two to come!