Read the rest of this entry »

Today, we have a Killers two-fer, with lists covering a couple of important defensive positions, specifically second base and catcher. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of a contender (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of roughly 10%) and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far (which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look. All statistics are through July 12.

Padres

With Kyle Higashioka departing for the Rangers in free agency, the Padres — who ranked 24th in the majors last year in catcher WAR (1.1) — pencilled in Luis Campusano, the weaker partner of last year’s catching tandem, alongside late-season addition Elias Díaz to do the bulk of the work behind plate. The pair, augmented by 38-year-old free agent Martín Maldonado, ranked dead last in our preseason Positional Power Rankings. After optioning Campusano to Triple-A El Paso in March (he was recalled yesterday), they’ve approximated that billing, ranking 29th out of the 30 teams in catcher WAR. Read the rest of this entry »

Baseball players can be pretty big. I knew this going in. Even so, I was not prepared for Noah Yoder. The 18-year-old pitcher from Mechanicsville, Virginia, draped himself onto the chair I’d set out for him, and then he started to overflow his container, like an overproofed bread dough liberating itself from a too-small pan.

Yoder explained that, having little showcase experience other than an eye-catching performance at East Coast Pro, he was enjoying his fancy surroundings at the MLB Draft Combine. Having a shuttle bus from the hotel to the ballpark was a particularly nice surprise.

As he settled into his seat and stretched out his legs, I was quickly coming to the realization that I had not left nearly enough space between his chair and my own. My previous interview had been with a compact college relief pitcher, and I hadn’t thought to rearrange the furniture for my next guest. Read the rest of this entry »

1. Washington Nationals
Pick: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK)
Before Mike Rizzo was let go, folks would have put Ethan Holliday here given the relationship of that regime with Holliday’s agent, Scott Boras, as well as the Rizzo era’s penchant for high-upside high school players. There is some industry conjecture that the key pieces of Washington’s core that might make sense to extend (James Wood, MacKenzie Gore) who are also Boras clients are not receptive to the idea of extensions, and frustration stemming from this might make the new leadership group less apt to want to work with Boras, who represents all the players here not named Eli Willits. About an hour before the draft I started to get wind of rumors that Washington was looking to cut a deal with one of Holliday, Anderson or Willits, whoever takes the least of that group. Willits’ next alternative seems like pick number five, making him the most likely to cut the biggest deal.

2. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
In keeping with the Angels’ consistent modus operandi of taking quick-moving college guys, teams have put them with Doyle (most frequently), Kade Anderson, and/or on a deal cut with Ike Irish. I did have one person suggest they were a threat to take Holliday, but just one.

3. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Ethan Holliday, 3B, Stillwater HS (OK)
If the draft lottery gods were kind to you and you moved up as much as the Mariners did, wouldn’t you feel like you were playing with house money and feel comfortable taking the potential franchise-altering player?

4. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
This is generally seen as Ethan’s floor. Folks think Colorado would take a college arm if he isn’t here, and in this scenario, Anderson is.

5. St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS (CA)
Lots of Eli Willits smoke here, though if Jojo Parker’s and Billy Carlson’s camps think they’re falling pretty deep, they might be under-slot targets here. Teams like Ike Irish enough that he could go anywhere from here through pick 10.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn
Mentioned here have been Jamie Arnold (in the Anthony Solometo mechanical mold, so it makes sense), Aiva Arquette, and Billy Carlson, but dope around Pittsburgh the last couple of years has almost never been correct. Irish might be the quickest-moving hitter from this draft class; he’s as stable a position player prospect as there is in the draft as the clock ticks on this front office to put together a competitive team.

7. Miami Marlins
Pick: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS (CA)
Teams have put all the high school shortstops here, and also Ike Irish and Seth Hernandez. Carlson performed from a contact standpoint but has some visual hit tool risk, similar to Carter Johnson and PJ Morlando last year.

8. Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
I don’t have any specific dope here, this is just good value if Arquette falls this far. College pitchers with fastball playability tend to be Toronto’s style, which could put Jamie Arnold and Kyson Witherspoon in their mix. I’m not sure any of the high school shortstops scratch their itch because they’re all older.

9. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL)
Seth Hernandez if he’s here. Teams think the Reds are keeping their options open and that they’re in play for any of the high school shortstops. In this scenario, Parker and Hall are here. Hall’s speed and athleticism are more a fit for what they’ve tended to do.

10. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Jojo Parker, SS, Purvis HS (MS)

11. Athletics
Pick: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State

12. Texas Rangers
Pick: Gavin Fien, 3B/OF, Great Oak HS (CA)

13. San Francisco Giants
Pick: Tyler Bremner, RHP, UCSB

14. Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma

15. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Gavin Kilen, SS, Tennessee

The last couple of days, folks have mentioned that Arnold is falling. He’d be a great buy-low for the A’s. Fien and Jace LaViolette have been mentioned with Texas. Industry sources put the Giants more on college players now that Buster Posey is running things. I’ve been told the Rays are Kyson Witherspoon’s floor. Boston is expected to make a model-driven pick and Kilen’s bat-to-ball skills fit there. He could also go a pick earlier to San Francisco. This is the area where people think Daniel Pierce will cut a deal.

16. Minnesota Twins
Pick: Andrew Fischer, 3B, Tennessee

17. Chicago Cubs
Pick: Josh Hammond, SS, Wesleyan Christian HS (NC)

18. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS (GA)

19. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas

20. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina

Arizona has a bunch of picks and therefore perhaps more motivation to cut a deal, and Pierce is rumored to have one somewhere in this range. Baltimore has taken toolsy college hitters with plate discipline issues the last few years, and this year that’s Aloy. Milwaukee has tended to target high schoolers of late, but the contact-oriented up-the-middle guys left here (Bodine, Marek Houston) could tempt them, too.

21. Houston Astros
Pick: Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M

22. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas

23. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA)

24. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Kayson Cunningham, INF, Johnson City HS (TX)

25. San Diego Padres
Pick: Marcus Phillips, RHP, Tennessee

Houston targets toolsy college guys, even when they have strikeout risk. At this stage, that’s Jace, and Aloy if he’s there. There are several surface-scratching arms with good fastballs here for Atlanta to consider (Patrick Forbes, Matthew Fisher); that’s their type, riding heaters with good breakers.

26. Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Dax Kilby, INF, Newnan HS (GA)

27. Cleveland Guardians
Pick: Devin Taylor, OF Indiana

Prospect Promotion Incentive Picks

28. Kansas City Royals (Received for Bobby Witt Jr. finishing in top 3 of MVP voting)
Pick: Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS (OR)

Compensation Picks

29. Arizona Diamondbacks (Compensation for Christian Walker)
Pick: Slater de Brun, CF, Summit HS (OR)

30. Baltimore Orioles (Compensation for Corbin Burnes)
Pick: Matthew Fisher, RHP, Evansville Memorial HS (IN)

31. Baltimore Orioles (Compensation for Anthony Santander)
Pick: Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest

32. Milwaukee Brewers (Compensation for Willy Adames)
Pick: Jaden Fauske, C/OF, Nazareth Academy HS (IL)

Read the rest of this entry »

Day One of the amateur draft kicks off this evening, and I’ve done a top-to-bottom refresh and expansion of my draft prospect rankings, which you can see on The Board. Please go read those blurbs and explore the tool grade section to get a better idea of my thoughts on the players. The goal of the draft rankings is to evaluate and rank as many of the players who are talented enough to hop onto the main section of the pro prospect lists as possible, so they can be ported over to the pro side of The Board as soon as they’re drafted. Players for whom that is true tend to start to peter out in rounds four and five of the draft as bonus slot amounts dip below $500,000. Over-slot guys are obvious exceptions. By the seventh round, we’re mostly talking about org guys who are drafted to make a team’s bonus pool puzzle fit together, or players who need significant development to truly be considered prospects. That usually means ranking about 150 players, and this year’s class is right in that range; right now, I have 152 guys on there. Read the rest of this entry »

Jose Altuve is having a Cooperstown-worthy career. Since debuting with the Houston Astros in 2011, the 35-year-old second baseman has logged 2,329 hits, including 246 home runs, while putting up a 129 wRC+ and 59.2 WAR. A nine-time All-Star who has won seven Silver Sluggers and one Gold Glove, Altuve captured MVP honors in 2017.

Turn the clock back to 2008, and the 5-foot-6 Puerto Cabello, Venezuela native was 18 years old and playing stateside for the first time. His manager with the rookie-level Greeneville Astros was Rodney Linares.

I recently asked the now-Tampa Bay Rays bench coach for his memories of the then-teenaged prospect.

“One guy that doesn’t get a lot of credit for Altuve is [current St. Louis Cardinals first base coach] Stubby Clapp, who’d been my hitting coach the year before,” Linares told me. “He always talked about Altuve, because he’d had him in extended spring. He was like, ‘You’ve got to watch this kid; this kid is going to be really good.’ I used to tell Stubby, ‘You think that because you’re small and played in the big leagues, anybody who is small can play.’”

Linares recalls the Astros organization’s wanting him to play 20-year-old Albert Cartwright at second, prompting him to tell Altuve ‘Go to short, go to third, go to left field. I’m going to make sure that you get your at-bats.” Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Houston Astros. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’ve ever sent in a mailbag question, you may have noticed that we sometimes wait a bit to answer it. We can’t get to all of your great questions each week, but many of them remain relevant and interesting enough that we can respond to them later on. Other questions require some reporting on our part, and it may take us longer than a week to check with various sources to gather the information necessary to address them.

I thought this was all worth mentioning, because three of the four questions featured in today’s mailbag were submitted more than an a week ago and a few deal with stats that have changed since the questions were submitted. We have updated the stats you’ll see in each question because those are the ones we are citing in our answers.

One last thing before we get to your questions: I’d like to remind all of you that while anyone can submit a question, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Blooper, the All-Star-Game-hosting Braves’ flagging fortunes, the pre-deadline trade market, the simultaneous surges of Ceddanne Rafaela and Pete Crow-Armstrong, the performances of old pitchers Charlie Morton, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander, and the death and legacy of Lee Elia, then (1:01:44) share several Stat Blasts about players who were All-Stars in their worst seasons, teams with reverse records against good/bad opponents, Billy McKinney and serial replacement-level players, and more.

Audio intro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Luke Lillard, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Blooper bio
Link to Blooper origin story
Link to Blooper origin story 2
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to Neil on parity
Link to Passan deadline preview 1
Link to Passan deadline preview 2
Link to WAR leaders since June
Link to Petriello on Rafaela
Link to over-40 pitchers
Link to run support
Link to best ERAs since 2021
Link to Elia obit
Link to Elia retrospective
Link to Elia retrospective 2
Link to Elia retrospective 3
Link Elia recording
Link to bleeped Elia recording
Link to oldest rookie hitter All-Stars
Link to oldest rookie pitcher All-Stars
Link to all-stars in worst season
Link to all-stars in worst full season
Link to Hunter obit
Link to one-run-game data
Link to backward team data
Link to MLBTR on McKinney
Link to replacement-level data
Link to Angels tweet
Link to Stat Blast notes
Link to listener emails database
Link to Kalkman on Clarke
Link to NCAA concussion news
Link to mound-movement math

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