FanGraphs Baseball

The Universe Wants Chandler Simpson To Stay on First Base

Pablo Robles-Imagn Images

Chandler Simpson is fast. Being fast is kind of his whole deal. As a minor leaguer in 2024, Simpson stole 104 bases in 110 games. As a rookie in 2025, he stole 44 bases in 109 games. Then he stole 14 in his first 40 games of this season. If you watched Monday night’s nationally televised game between the Rays and the Dodgers, none of this is news to you. Simpson entered as a pinch-runner during a pivotal moment, and his presence instantly altered the gravity of the entire broadcast. ESPN’s cameras never left him, the commentators never stopped talking about him, and the Dodgers were so preoccupied with him that they barely had any focus to spare for the batters who came to the plate while he was on base. But Simpson never stole a base, and that’s likely not news to you either.

Simpson’s last steal came on May 11. That’s 28 games and more than a month ago. Over that time he’s been thrown out four times. On June 4, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times wrote an excellent article breaking down the circumstances behind the drought. Topkin used his own observations alongside first-hand explanations from Simpson, teammate Cedric Mullins, manager Kevin Cash, and first base/baserunning/outfield coach Corey Dickerson. Topkin noted first that Simpson has had fewer opportunities because he’s slumping at the plate. Since May 20, he’s running a .227 on-base percentage, the fourth-lowest mark among qualified players. Next, Topkin pointed out that Simpson’s downturn has roughly coincided with a downturn in Tampa Bay’s fortunes. The Rays have fallen behind early in games, putting them in situations where it doesn’t make as much sense to risk outs on stolen base attempts. Simpson and the rest of the Rays, though, were less focused on the circumstances and more focused on the intent of the opposition.

“I think the reason he’s in that funk right now is that teams have made a really impressive adjustment against him,” manager Kevin Cash told Topkin. “Every team we see, they were mindful. Now, they’re that much more mindful. We’re seeing pitchers alter their deliveries.”

Asked what opponents are doing to keep him tethered to the base, Simpson answered, “Everything. They’ve been pulling everything out. Slide-step (deliveries), quicker moves, pitchouts, random perfect throws on the money.” Monday night’s game provided an excellent example. Read the rest of this entry »


We Should Account For Inherited Runners Better

Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

On April 21, Grant Anderson inherited a hot mess. With the Brewers ahead 3-0 in the fourth inning, starter Kyle Harrison lost his feel. He walked Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson in two uncompetitive plate appearances, then gave up a rifled line drive on one of his slowest fastballs of the day, a center-cut cookie to Hao-Yu Lee. Pat Murphy called Anderson in from the bullpen to face the bases loaded with no one out.

Anderson delivered nearly flawlessly. He got Javier Báez to ground into a first-pitch double play, then struck out pinch-hitter Kerry Carpenter to escape the inning with only a single run allowed. That run, of course, went on Harrison’s ledger. Anderson got credit for a scoreless inning, no more or less.

On May 16, Chase Silseth tried to pull off the same trick. José Soriano fought through five strong innings against the Dodgers, but he didn’t have it in the sixth. After an inning-opening groundout, he walked four of the next five batters and hit the fifth, driving in two runs and leaving the bases loaded. Silseth came in to put out the fire – but he might as well have poured kerosene on it. He hit the first batter he faced, then gave up a two-run single immediately after, pushing the score to 6-0. He finally got the last two batters of the inning – which meant that in the game’s official log, he pitched two-thirds of an inning and didn’t allow a run.

These two pitching performances went quite differently. Anderson had a tougher task and performed better. But the two of them each got credit for a clean sheet. This is far from the only problem with the way we calculate ERA, but it’s one that stands out to anyone following. Anderson and Silseth didn’t deserve the same counting statistics there. Likewise, Soriano got tagged for three runs, while Harrison got tagged with only one. But that didn’t reflect what happened to them – both of them lost it and had to be removed from the game because of all the runners they’d allowed. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2493: Baseball Has Marked the Time

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and The Ringer’s Van Lathan banter about Van’s love of baseball, his origin story as a fan, how he got back into the sport, MLB’s resurgence in popularity, advanced stats questions, why the percentage of Black players in MLB fell, how average sports fans perceive MLB’s labor battle, and much more (warning: language). Then (1:25:38) Ben talks to Thomas Gilbert, author of Death in the Strike Zone: The Mystery of America’s First Baseball Hero, about how Jim Creighton revolutionized pitching and reshaped the game, and how Gilbert investigated the many unknowns and misperceptions surrounding the right-hander’s life and death.

Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Guy Russo, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Van’s Ringer archive
Link to Van’s baseball outfit
Link to Van’s dad story
Link to Chico Escuela clip
Link to Ben on Dunn and Pierre
Link to B-Ref career WAR leaders
Link to wOBA glossary entry
Link to Field of Dreams scene
Link to Jeter’s dating history
Link to The Simpsons scene
Link to Death in the Strike Zone
Link to How Baseball Happened
Link to Creighton wiki
Link to Thorn on Creighton 1
Link to Thorn on Creighton 2
Link to EW on pesäpallo
Link to The Universal Baseball Association
Link to Defector on Coover’s book
Link to Ella Black series

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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 6/16/26

2:01
Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

2:01
Brendan Gawlowski: Since we last did this, Eric and James published a Twins list.

2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: I have been working furiously on the Marlins. That’ll go either tomorrow or Thursday but it’s essentially done.

2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: Which leaves just the Rays and this will all be over.

2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: For now let’s do this

2:03
Chris: Is James Tibbs III a Top 50 prospect at this point?

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Feature Focus: WAR Graphs

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Today’s Feature Focus covers WAR Graphs, a quite underutilized tool in my opinion. (We’re called FanGraphs after all, and this is a Graph that you can make, as a Fan.) The tool is accessed near the bottom of the Leaders menu, under WAR Tools:

That’ll send you to this landing page, a blank canvas for adding players:

After selecting players, you’ll be welcomed with three graphs: nth Best Season, Cumulative WAR by Age, and WAR by Age. The view defaults to showing all three, but you can toggle at the top:

Let’s dive into each graph. Read the rest of this entry »


Steve Sparks Tackles a Challenging Career Quiz

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel files-Imagn Content Services, LLC

Steve Sparks is a good storyteller, which serves him well in the broadcast booth. Now in his 14th season working alongside Robert Ford, Sparks forms one half of a Houston Astros radio team that ranks among the best in the business. He used to throw knuckleballs for a living. Pitching for five teams from 1995-2004, primarily the Detroit Tigers, the 61-year-old Tulsa, Oklahoma native took the mound 270 times to the tune of a 59-76 won-lost record and a 4.88 ERA. All told, he faced 626 different batters over 1,319 2/3 innings of work.

How well does he remember his more-notable matchups? Following in the footsteps of Geoff Blum, David Cone, Mark Grant, Mark Gubicza, Jeff Montgomery, and Dan Petry — links to those pieces can be found on their player pages — Sparks sat down for the seventh installment of our Challenging Career Quiz.

I began by asking which batter he faced the most times.

“It would probably have to be somebody in the American League Central,” replied Sparks, whom I spoke with at Fenway Park in early May. “I’ll say Frank Thomas.”

His guess was spot on. Sparks faced Thomas 60 times, with “The Big Hurt” going 13-for-49 with three home runs, nine walks, and a pair of plunkings. His memories of the Hall of Famer?

“I had the impression that he couldn’t reach the outside corner,” Sparks told me. “I felt like if I had to go somewhere, throwing a fastball or a cutter, I could go away to Frank Thomas. I found out very quickly that I was wrong. He was so far off the plate that I didn’t think he could reach it. But he could. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/16/26

12:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon! It’s a gorgeous 71-degree day here in my corner of Brooklyn and here I am, stuck inside yappin’ at you folks — I kid, but maybe I’d better take a walk to get my lunch after this ends.

12:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The vibe here is still lovely in the wake of the Knicks’ NBA championship win on Friday night. As somebody who’s been hating on James Dolan and the Knicks for over 31 years since moving here, I did not climb aboard the bandwagon, but my wife and daughter greatly enjoyed it — the latter has never been swept up in sports fandom like that before, so that was cool to see.

12:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And of course we have the World Cup going on, the drama of which has already managed to outrun the awful underlying politics.

12:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And the baseball has been fantastic! Jacob Misiorowski’s one-hit, 15-strikeout game from Friday night was remarkable, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto chased a perfect game on Saturday evening.

12:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about José Ramírez’s broken hamate https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-ultra-durable-jose-ramirez-has-been-fe…

12:06
Avatar Jay Jaffe: and late last week, I wrote about Dustin May (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dustin-may-is-finally-having-his-day/) who made me look good by throwing a one-hit shutout last night against the Padres

Read the rest of this entry »


Is Andre Pallante Good? I Still Can’t Tell.

Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

Andre Pallante starts for the Cardinals on Tuesday, and if he beats Michael King and the Padres, he’ll move into a tie for the National League lead in wins.

I know we’re not supposed to care about wins, but it gives me a chance to talk about a pitcher I’ve had a hard time understanding over his five seasons in St. Louis. I should be more specific, because Pallante’s game is pretty straightforward. That I understand just fine. I just can’t figure out if he’s any good or not. Read the rest of this entry »


The Early Shift: Death and Gary

Hello. While on paternity leave, I kept a journal about baseball and my daughter, who is not named Derek Jr., but who will henceforth be referred to as Derek Jr. You can read all of the entries here.

May 7
In my brief glimpses of baseball today, I watched Oneil Cruz work a walk off Paul Sewald in Arizona, as well as the final three outs of the Mets’ loss to the Rockies. Cruz really worked the walk, which was fun to see. It was an eight-pitch plate appearance. Sewald missed well inside with the first pitch. Ahead in the count, Cruz was sitting fastball, so when Sewald located a sweeper in the bottom part of the zone, he took it for a strike without batting an eye. Then Sewald made a huge mistake, leaving a sweeper in the dead center of the zone. But Cruz was again looking for a fastball, and this time, he thought he saw it. He unleashed a mighty cut, so far in front of the ball that he didn’t even bother trying to slow his swing down in order to salvage some kind of contact.

The count was 1-2 and the rest seemed academic. Cruz came into the game with a 34% strikeout rate. So did Sewald. Put it all together, and – forgive me if my math is a little fuzzy here – this situation seemed like it would end in a strikeout approximately 240% of the time. But Cruz managed to lay off a backdoor sweeper that missed the corner by an inch or so. It was the one really great take of the plate appearance. Two-two. Sewald got him to chase a fastball way upstairs (and way upstairs on Oneil Cruz means up near the press box), but Cruz just barely got a piece. Sewald missed wide with another slider to make the count full, and then Cruz got another little piece of another high fastball, this one located perfectly at the top of the zone. It was the best swing of the plate appearance, and when Sewald missed well wide on the third 3-2 pitch, Cruz had really earned his way to first. He doesn’t have the greatest eye in the world – three of these balls were very easy takes, and one of his swings was on a ball nearly a foot above the zone – but what more can you ask than a patient approach early on, one good take, one good foul, and an aggressive swing when he thinks he sees his pitch?

In Colorado, Antonio Senzatela did his best to make a 6-2 game interesting, walking the leadoff batter and allowing a bloop single to the second hitter. Then he settled down, striking out Francisco Alvarez on four pitches and MJ Melendez on three, before inducing a weak popout from Vidal Bruján. Melendez is now down to a 79 wRC+ on the season and Bruján has a career wRC+ of 54. These cannot be the hitters the Mets want coming to the plate in big situations, but that’s not my main focus as I watch the inning unfold. My main focus is on the girl in the pink puffer jacket behind the right-handed batter’s box, and her focus is on trying to figure out how to wipe her hands with a napkin:

Baseball really does have something for everyone. Truthfully, though, I’m vamping here. None of this is what I need to talk to you about. I mean, sure, I enjoy watching Oneil Cruz do just about anything, and it’s always fun to watch somebody learn about the magic of napkins, but we need to talk about something more important.

It’s two in the morning and I’m feeding my daughter. I’m typing this on my phone with one hand because I just noticed that her pajamas feature squat, heavy-set little mice playing musical instruments in some sort of mouse marching band. I think they’re wearing berets, because, I think, they’re French mice. They’re lined up in twos and threes playing a tuba or a trumpet or a drum or a tambourine. One even seems to be playing a lute, and now that I’m looking closely, I see a triangle, maracas, an accordion, and one mouse who just seems to be doing gymnastics. These mice are definitely French. But what gets me is that there’s one mouse playing a saxophone. That, my friends, is a bridge too far:

If you want me to believe there’s a mouse playing a tiny trumpet, making a tiny embouchure with its tiny little mouse snout, and tootling out a trebly “When the Saints Go Marching In,” then sure, what the hell, I can hang in there with you. I can even swallow the idea of a mouse playing the lute with its weird mouse paws. But I refuse to believe that mice are playing reed instruments. Do you know how hard it is to play the saxophone? And who is making these microscopic reeds? You want me to believe that the mouse is carefully wetting the reed just the right amount before clamping it back into place and launching into the solo from “Born to Run?” I’m out! You have officially lost me. This world you’ve created is structurally unsound, and it will collapse under its own obscene weight:

At the beginning of each procession is a mouse holding what is almost certainly a banner, but there’s a 10% chance that it is not a banner and is, in fact, a giant, crooked scythe. I like that possibility better. This isn’t a marching band after all. This is Death coming to bear his next victim to the mouse netherworld. And in the Mouse World, Death is dressed like a mime and accompanied by his friend Gary, who is going through a messy divorce right now and really having a time of it. One night, a gruff mouse driving a beat-up van unceremoniously dumped a huge pile of bric-a-brac from what was formerly a joint storage unit in Gary’s driveway, and as he picked through the wreckage of his freshly-shuttered past life, Gary uncovered the alto sax he used to play in high school. Gary couldn’t afford a convertible or a hair transplant, so he threw himself into his rusty old sax with everything he had, then convinced his buddy Death that maybe the journey to the afterlife deserved the class and dignity of some smooth jazz. It is not going well.

Derek Jr. is very much asleep now, so please excuse me while I deposit her and her mouse army in the crib and try for a bit more sleep. Thank you for reading FanGraphs.


The Dodgers Rotation Is Back on Top

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Shohei Ohtani made his first start on the mound for the Dodgers one year ago today, following a nearly two-year recovery from Tommy John surgery. He threw 28 pitches, exited after the first inning as planned, and flashed great stuff, even if he looked occasionally frustrated with his command. He ramped up slowly from there, from one inning to two to three to eventually six by the fall. He stamped his health with a dominant, 10-strikeout performance in NLCS Game 4 to send the Dodgers to the World Series.

Ohtani has now made 25 starts (of some length) since his return. Not only has he excelled individually over the last year, but his renaissance has run parallel with that of the Dodgers rotation.

Let’s start there: The 2025 Dodgers weren’t a powerhouse. They were great, and I’m sure they’re content with their second consecutive World Series trophy. But they weren’t quite the behemoth we’d seen in the past. They didn’t lock up the NL West until game 159. They finished with their fewest wins since 2018 and “worst” pythag record since 2016. We can see their win rate over 162 games has steadily fallen from its peak of 118 wins in late 2022. Read the rest of this entry »