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In past years, I’ve produced Daily Prospect Notes like this four times a week during the minor league regular season, combing through the box scores once all the games are complete and writing up a handful of the players who had great games for the following morning. While I expect others at the site will contribute to DPN this year, I’m starting the year off by experimenting with a new format. Here I’ve screen recorded myself going through the box scores. Rather than whittle down the notable performers to five or six guys, now you get to hear me talk through a lot more players. It’s not as swift as a quick, five-minute skim but it disseminates more info to our readers with less work for me. It also gives you a glimpse into the process by which I start to flag new names for analysis.

The way I talk about players’ backgrounds may evolve to suit readers more precisely as I do more of these, or I may just return to writing them like I used to. For now, please accept this maiden voyage and the recent minor league video I shot here in Arizona. Read the rest of this entry »

With a revamped lineup, rotation, and front office, the Mets were supposed to rank among the NL’s top teams, ideally while offering at least somewhat less dysfunction than during the Wilpon family’s tenure as owners. Given an offense that has wheezed its way to an NL-low 3.30 runs per game as the team has stumbled to an 11-12 start, however, the Mets’ brass decided to shake things up by firing hitting coaches Chili Davis and Tom Slater after Monday night’s 6-5 loss to the Cardinals. The pair have been replaced by Hugh Quattlebaum, previously the Mets’ minor league director of hitting development, and Kevin Howard, their director of player development. You may be shocked to learn that this move did not come off smoothly.

It’s not the fault of Davis, who was in his third season as the Mets’ hitting coach, or Slater, in his fourth season as the assistant hitting coach, that key newcomers Francisco Lindor and James McCann and holdovers such as Dominic Smith and Jeff McNeil have all underperformed on the offensive side. The latter duo had previously thrived under Davis and Slater, and currently Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo are knocking the stuffing out of the ball. Scapegoating coaches is a time-honored tradition by struggling teams, however. If you can’t fire the players…

The timing of the dismissals was curious, to say the least. The Mets had scored 18 runs over their previous three games, two of them wild weekend wins over the Phillies, snapping out of a skid during which they had scored just seven runs over their previous five games against the Nationals and Red Sox. Read the rest of this entry »

Cole Wilcox started to say “two-seamer” when bringing up the fastball he threw at the University of Georgia. The 21-year-old Tampa Bay Rays prospect then reversed course and called it a sinker, which it really wasn’t. Featuring mostly arm-side run, the high-velocity offering got only a modicum of depth. Given the grip, that kind of came with the territory. More on that in a moment.

Wilcox was selected in the third round of the 2020 draft by San Diego, who subsequently shipped the right-hander to the Rays as part of the Blake Snell deal. Seen as a potential first-rounder last summer — signability questions caused the sophomore-eligible draftee to drop — Wilcox spent time at the Padres alternate site prior to changing organizations in December. It was there that he restructured an arsenal that now comprises a two-seamer, a slider, a changeup, and a work-in-progress four-seamer.

Which brings us to the heater he’d featured in the SEC. Regardless of how one might define it, it’s now part of his past.

“It used to be a four-seam sinker,” explained Wilcox, who is beginning the current campaign with the Low-A Charleston River Dogs. “Really, the only thing good about it was that it was hard. That’s what I threw in college, but since I’ve been in pro ball, I’ve switched to a two-seam. It gets a lot more movement, a lot more depth.” Read the rest of this entry »

George Carlin once said, “Inside every cynical person, there is a disappointed idealist.”

I’m reminded of this quote whenever a new rule change is proposed or implemented in baseball and is largely (and predictably) followed by outrage from outspoken purists. Of course, we all know that rule changes themselves are nothing new; it’s been about a century since the ball was first brought to life and decades since the mound was lowered, both changes that were met with contemporaneous skepticism of their own.

Some of the rule changes being proposed and implemented in the sport today address similar aspects of the game as those of yesteryear, namely, counteracting pitchers’ dominance and steering the sport away from a subsequent three-true-outcomes landscape. But another seeming motivation behind MLB’s tinkering these days is simply to shorten the length of games – a hard sell to those of us who would prefer more baseball to less. Unsurprisingly, what was once generally a skeptical public reception has morphed into one that is much more cynical. But what idealism could that cynicism be masking?

A baseball idealist would likely regard rule changes as a last resort, drastic measures made necessary by desperate times. Perhaps the disconnect between baseball fans and MLB simply comes down to a disagreement about whether or not the current climate constitutes times desperate enough for such drastic measures. Seeing as how MLB has already proven its willingness to toy with these types of changes, though, there seems little point in rehashing the merits of tinkering. And there is potential afforded by an openness to change, potential that has been largely overlooked and is therefore untapped. Given the likelihood that rule changes will continue to be considered and implemented in baseball, it’s my belief that these changes should be viewed by MLB as a mechanism to allow greater access to, and inclusion within, the sport. Read the rest of this entry »

Building off of yesterday’s American League conference call agendas, let’s move on to the National League and see what’s on the docket for the teams of the senior circuit.

Arizona Diamondbacks

• We’re over .500 and we’re banged up. This team is better than people on the outside thought. That said, I don’t think we’ll be exceptionally busy in terms of buying this summer. We’re not catching the Padres or Dodgers, and let’s not forget about the Giants. Let’s stick to the plan and just keep getting better long-term.
• The rotation has been up-and-down, and Corbin Martin is probably the only minor league piece with a chance to contribute in that area. Let’s get some ideas going as to how we get through 162 games with depth issues in that department.
• Let’s have some initial talks about draft strategy, as we’re picking sixth. It feels like there is a four-player tier at the top of the draft, so let’s see if there’s a tier-two player we like at six, or if we should be more creative and spread the wealth a bit.
• The offense overall has been good, but our infield is not hitting. There aren’t any immediate moves to make, but it sure would be nice to see Seth Beer get off to a nice start to gauge whether he can get some at-bats up here as a Christian Walker replacement.
• We love having the presence of Eduardo Escobar and Asdrúbal Cabrera, but there should be a market for both this July, and we should be listening. Let’s focus on arms in those discussions.
• The same goes for David Peralta, even though he’s been our second best hitter and is signed for next year as well. That extra year, which is a cheap one at that ($7.5 million), should help generate some interest.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about being fully vaccinated, injuries to Dustin May, Luis Robert, Jesús Luzardo, Jacob deGrom, Shohei Ohtani, and others around the league, grumbles about Tony La Russa’s managing, the Angels’ perplexing, persistent .500-ness, the Mets firing and hiring hitting coaches, and surprising pricing for players on Cameo, then follow up on the Dodgers’ shifting against righties, umpires declaring plays too close to call, and handing out flagrant fouls for hit by pitches before ending with Stat Blasts about the most consecutive taken pitches and the longest pitcher outings without a ball being put in play.

Audio intro: Red Hot Chili Peppers, "Dosed"
Audio outro: The White Stripes, "Take, Take, Take"

Link to post on May’s pitch-type changes
Link to post on May’s injury
Link to post on Robert’s injury
Link to Luzardo story
Link to Luzardo apology
Link to BP on April injuries
Link to Jeff Passan on La Russa
Link to Rob Arthur on La Russa
Link to story about Mets firings
Link to study on offense after firing coaches
Link to defensive efficiency leaderboard
Link to story about the Angels’ defense
Link to Ben on the Angels’ .500-ness
Link to cluster luck leaderboard
Link to post on the Dodgers’ shifting
Link to Reddit thread on Cameo pricing
Link to data on consecutive takes
Link to game with most consecutive takes
Link to data on all-true-outcome outings
Link to data on all-true-outcome starts

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It was the first game of the season for the Mets, played in front of an eager, raucous Philly crowd — and for the first six innings, it was a game that belonged to Jacob deGrom. He held the Phillies scoreless, striking out seven, allowing only three hits. He even helped his own cause at the plate, driving in one of the Mets’ two runs — a classically deGrom lack of run support; no wonder he had to do it himself. Even with the number of baserunners the Mets had left stranded, two felt like it could be enough. Even after deGrom left the game, Miguel Castro pitched a clean seventh.

And then came the eighth. Trevor May was on the mound. He struck out Adam Haseley. Then, on his second pitch to Brad Miller, a single. Then Andrew McCutchen drew a walk. A mound visit — it was time for concern — and then, on a pitch well outside the zone, Rhys Hoskins, too, singled. The bases were loaded, and none other than Bryce Harper was coming up to the plate.

May was done. The bleeding needed to stop immediately. So in came Aaron Loup, the veteran lefty whose control has always seemed to be extremely on or extremely off. Harper fouled off Loup’s curveball. Loup’s next pitch hit him in the shoulder. The lead was halved — and, thanks to the three-batter minimum, there was no recourse for Luis Rojas. Loup had to stay in and face J.T. Realmuto. With one more pitch, the lead evaporated. Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s not sugarcoat it: Kris Bryant was bad last year. Sure, it was only 147 plate appearances, but the sheer broadness of his struggles made it feel longer. He set career lows in batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, walk rate, barrel rate — you name it, and there’s a good chance he fell short in it. With the Cubs in salary relief mode this offseason, there was talk of a non-tender, and it certainly wasn’t good for Bryant’s free agency hopes.

That feels like less of a worry now. Through the first month of the season, Bryant has been tremendous. April marks don’t compare well to full-season numbers, but far from continuing his swoon, he’s posting the best numbers of his career nearly across the board. He looks like an MVP candidate again, and it’s a good thing for the Cubs, who need all the offensive help they can get given how many of their regulars are struggling.

What changed? As Tom Verducci detailed, Bryant is swinging differently, and it’s paid dividends so far this year. Let’s dig into the numbers and see how that new swing (in fairness, it’s still pretty similar to the old swing) is working so well.

Take a look at this heatmap of the four-seam fastballs Bryant faced in 2015 and ’16:

That’s right: four-seam fastballs low in the zone. Bryant devoured those pitches en route to 14 WAR over the two years. Next, look at the four-seamers he saw in 2019 and ’20:

Read the rest of this entry »

The White Sox took a giant blow Sunday when young centerfielder Luis Robert injured his right hip flexor running to first while trying to beat out a grounder to third against Cleveland. As it turns out, the injury wasn’t minor, as he was diagnosed with a Grade III strain — a complete rupture of the muscle involved — and will not be able to resume baseball activities for 12–16 weeks.

Chicago hasn’t officially ruled out Robert for the season, but there’s enough uncertainty that senior VP/general manager Rick Hahn did not give a particularly optimistic assessment of when his return could be.

“But it’s safe to say in terms of projecting his possible return, it’s too soon to know. Quite frankly, we are not going to be able to provide you with an educated projection of that for another 12 weeks or so as we see how he progresses.”

The most serious consequence of Robert’s injury is naturally a painful recovery process for last year’s AL Rookie of the Year runner-up. But the White Sox have more than 130 games to play, meaning there will also be consequences for the team and some pivotal decisions to make.

Losing Robert is particularly unwelcome for the Sox, as he represents the second serious loss at a position at which they’re not terribly deep. In an unfortunately timely look I did last month at baseball’s most irreplaceable players, the ZiPS projections pegged him as the seventh-most crucial player in the majors in terms of effect on the playoff race.

From a straight-up projection standpoint, Robert falls short of most of the names on this list. Just on the Sox, ZiPS thinks Lucas Giolito is a significantly more valuable player overall, at least when he’s not pitching in the morning. But if something should happen to Giolito, Chicago has spare arms to patch up the hole. If the team loses Robert, let’s just say ZiPS does not have a case of Leurymania or Engelalia. The race with the Twins is likely going to be a tight one, and the Royals have shown surprising spunk. The White Sox could ill afford an injury to their center fielder.

Read the rest of this entry »