JAWS and the 2026 Hall of Fame Ballot: Félix Hernández

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Before he’d ever thrown a major league pitch, cracked a prospect list, or reached legal adult status, Félix Hernández had a nickname: King Felix, crowned by U.S.S. Mariner blogger Jason Michael Barker on July 17, 2003, when he was overpowering much older hitters as a 17-year-old in the Low-A Northwest League. Still a teen when he reached the majors, he quickly came to represent the hopes and dreams of a franchise that had fallen short of a World Series despite four playoffs appearances from 1995–2001; parted with superstars Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr., and Alex Rodriguez along the way; and capped that run with a record-setting 116 wins but a premature exit in the ALCS.

Though slow to embrace the royal moniker, Hernández grew into it. His dazzling combination of an electrifying, darting sinker, a knee-buckling curve, and a signature hard changeup propelled him to a Cy Young Award, two ERA titles, six All-Star appearances, and a perfect game. From 2009–14, he was the best pitcher in the American League by ERA, FIP, strikeouts, and WAR, parlaying that into a contract that made him the game’s highest-paid pitcher. Unfortunately, a heavy workload — more innings than any pitcher 23 or younger since Dwight Gooden two decades earlier — sapped the sizzle from his fastball, with injuries and a cavalier approach to conditioning taking their toll as well. The Mariners struggled to surround him with a quality roster while cycling through managers and pitching coaches every couple of years. The team didn’t reach the playoffs once during Hernández’s career, finishing above .500 just five times, with a pair of second-place showings in the AL West as good as it got. Read the rest of this entry »


The Unscoopable Elly De La Cruz

Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

So I had this brilliant theory. My brilliant theory was that Elly De La Cruz wasn’t as bad a defender as the numbers would have us think. De La Cruz finished the 2025 season with 11 fielding errors, the second most in baseball, and 15 throwing errors, also the second most in baseball. Put those two together and you get 26 total errors, the most in baseball. I thought those totals might be shortchanging De La Cruz a bit. My brilliant theory was wrong, but before I get to why, let me explain my thinking.

We should start with the fact the advanced numbers do not say that De La Cruz is a bad shortstop. He makes up for most of his errors with length, speed, and the Mega Man cannon where his right arm should be. Statcast’s FRV loved De La Cruz’s defense in 2024, and it pegged him as perfectly average as he battled through a quad strain in 2025. Baseball Prospectus’ DRP, which tends to skew more conservative than the other advanced metrics, had him at 0.8 runs in 2024 and -0.4 runs in 2025. Sports Info Solutions’ DRS has always liked De La Cruz’s defense the least, pegging him at -2 in 2024 and -5 in 2025. So it’s not as if De La Cruz is grading out as a catastrophe. I just thought he deserved even more credit, and with that credit, we might have started seeing him as an above-average shortstop rather than a good-enough shortstop. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Washington Nationals – Multiple Openings

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):

Minor League Affiliate Pitching Coach
Minor League Affiliate Defensive Coach
Minor League Affiliate Hitting Coach
Coordinator, Minor League Hitting (Upper Level)
Major League Dietitian
Minor League Strength & Conditioning Coach


Our Vision
To become baseball’s highest performing organization — defined by our relentless pursuit of excellence, strengthened by our connection, and fueled by our positive energy.

Our Core Values

  • Joy. We want to be around people that like to have fun. We remain optimistic through the ups and downs, we enjoy the process, and we share in something bigger than ourselves.
  • Humility. We don’t have all the answers. We lead with curiosity, listen generously, and seek growth from every experience — especially the tough ones. We have gotten over ourselves.
  • Integrity. We do the right thing, even when it’s hard. We act with honesty, accountability, and respect for our teammates and ourselves. We treat the custodian like the king.
  • Competitiveness. We embrace challenges and thrive in high-stakes environments. We prepare relentlessly. We are energized by the idea of keeping score.


Minor League Affiliate Pitching Coach

Position Summary
The Washington Nationals are seeking passionate and innovative minor league pitching coaches to join in creating a world-class pitching pipeline for the 2026 season. This is a uniformed position that will report to and work closely with the Pitching Coordinator, Director of Pitching, PD leadership, and appropriate stakeholders to develop and implement cross-departmental, individualized player performance plans throughout the season.

Ideal candidates embody our core values (joy, humility, integrity, and competitiveness) and are highly motivated, with a proactive and creative growth mindset.

Primary Responsibilities

  • Collaborate with Pitching Coordinator, Director of Pitching, and other support staff to create and implement player-specific pitching improvement plans.
  • Collaborate with affiliate medical and S&C staff to carry out and execute player plan goals.
  • Implement dynamic pitching practice environments and assist field staff with daily on-field practice as needed.
  • Track player pitching performance and provide data-driven insights using baseball technology and other internal analytical tools.
  • Lead pitching player performance meetings.
  • Help prepare and implement daily pitching game plans and opposing hitter advance reports.
  • Track relevant player progress through internal note-taking structure and execute a world-class transition process, as players move from level to level.

Qualifications

  • Detail-oriented with a strong ability to create programming and practice settings that promote goals of the pitching department.
  • Desire to learn, grow, and develop personally and professionally in alignment with organizational values and philosophies.
  • Demonstrated ability to communicate complex data-driven concepts to players in an easily understood, actionable manner.
  • Prior experience coaching, playing, or working in an innovative baseball performance setting is preferred.
  • Experience with baseball technologies and video/biomechanical analysis preferred.
  • Bilingual (English/Spanish) preferred.

Compensation:
The projected annual salary range for this contracted position is $55,000-$75,000 per year. Actual pay is based on several factors, including but not limited to the applicant’s: qualifications, skills, expertise, education/training, certifications, and other organization requirements. Starting salaries for new employees are frequently not at the top of the applicable salary range.

Benefits
The Nationals offer a competitive and comprehensive benefits package that presently includes:

  • Medical, dental, vision, life and AD&D insurance
  • Short- and long-term disability insurance
  • Flexible spending accounts
  • 401(k) and pension plan
  • Access to complimentary tickets to Nationals home games
  • Employee discounts
  • Free onsite fitness center

Equal Opportunity Employer:
The Nationals are dedicated to offering equal employment and advancement opportunities to all individuals regardless of their race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, personal appearance, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, family responsibilities, matriculation, political affiliation, genetic information, disability, or any other protected characteristic under applicable law.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.


Minor League Affiliate Defensive Coach

Position Summary
The Washington Nationals are seeking passionate and innovative minor league defensive coaches to join in creating a world-class player development pipeline. This is a uniformed position that will report to and work closely with the leadership in the Defense, Baserunning, and Game Play Department to develop and implement individualized defensive improvement plans throughout the season. Affiliate defensive coaches will evaluate performance, create effective programming, and execute championship caliber training environments while working closely with on-site support staff (S&C, medical, etc.) to carry out cross-departmental player plan goals. Ideal candidates embody our core values (joy, humility, integrity, and competitiveness) and are highly motivated, with a proactive and creative growth mindset.

Primary Responsibilities

  • Collaborate with defensive coordinators and other support staff to evaluate performance, create programming, and implement player-specific defense improvement plans.
  • Execute world-class training environments at the affiliate level in alignment with organizational defensive philosophies.
  • Communicate player performance and training progress with appropriate stakeholders, including players and leadership.
  • Prepare daily and weekly defensive positioning and game planning.
  • Track player defensive performance and provide data-driven insights using baseball technology and other internal analytical tools.
  • Assist affiliate staff with additional daily practice goals, as needed.

Qualifications

  • Detail-oriented with a strong ability to evaluate performance, create programming and execute training.
  • Desire to learn, grow, and develop personally and professionally in alignment with organizational values and philosophies.
  • Demonstrated ability to communicate complex data-driven concepts to players in an easily understood, actionable manner.
  • Prior experience coaching, playing, or working in an innovative baseball performance setting is preferred.
  • Experience with baseball technologies and advanced defensive metrics preferred.
  • Bilingual (English/Spanish) preferred.

Compensation:
The projected annual salary range for this contracted position is $55,000-$75,000 per year. Actual pay is based on several factors, including but not limited to the applicant’s: qualifications, skills, expertise, education/training, certifications, and other organization requirements. Starting salaries for new employees are frequently not at the top of the applicable salary range.

Benefits:
The Nationals offer a competitive and comprehensive benefits package that presently includes:

  • Medical, dental, vision, life and AD&D insurance
  • Short- and long-term disability insurance
  • Flexible spending accounts
  • 401(k) and pension plan
  • Access to complimentary tickets to Nationals home games
  • Employee discounts
  • Free onsite fitness center

Equal Opportunity Employer:
The Nationals are dedicated to offering equal employment and advancement opportunities to all individuals regardless of their race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, personal appearance, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, family responsibilities, matriculation, political affiliation, genetic information, disability, or any other protected characteristic under applicable law.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.


Minor League Affiliate Hitting Coach

Position Summary
The Washington Nationals are seeking passionate and innovative minor league hitting coaches to join a world-class hitting pipeline for the 2026 season. This is a uniformed position that will report to and work closely with the Hitting Coordinator, Director of Hitting, PD leadership, and relevant stakeholders to develop and implement individualized, cross departmental player performance plans throughout the season.

Ideal candidates embody our core values (joy, humility, integrity, and competitiveness) and are highly motivated, with a proactive and creative growth mindset.

Primary Responsibilities

  • Collaborate with Hitting Coordinator and Director of Hitting to create and implement player-specific offensive improvement plans.
  • Collaborate with affiliate S&C and medical staff to carry out and execute player plan goals.
  • Execute daily hitting practice environments and assist field staff with daily on-field practice goals.
  • Track player offensive progress and provide data-driven insights using baseball technology and other internal analytical tools.
  • Help prepare and implement daily offensive game plans and advance reports.
  • Lead in-season hitting player performance meetings.
  • Track relevant player progress through internal note-taking structure and execute a world-class transition process, as players move from level to level.

Qualifications

  • Detail-oriented with a strong ability to create programming and practice settings that promote goals of the hitting department.
  • Desire to learn, grow, and develop personally and professionally in alignment with organizational values and philosophies.
  • Demonstrated ability to communicate complex data-driven concepts to players in an easily understood, actionable manner.
  • Prior experience coaching, playing, or working in an innovative baseball performance setting is preferred.
  • Experience with baseball technologies and video/biomechanical analysis preferred.
  • Bilingual (English/Spanish) preferred.

Compensation:
The projected annual salary range for this contracted position is $55,000-$75,000 per year. Actual pay is based on several factors, including but not limited to the applicant’s: qualifications, skills, expertise, education/training, certifications, and other organization requirements. Starting salaries for new employees are frequently not at the top of the applicable salary range.

Benefits:
The Nationals offer a competitive and comprehensive benefits package that presently includes:

  • Medical, dental, vision, life and AD&D insurance
  • Short- and long-term disability insurance
  • Flexible spending accounts
  • 401(k) and pension plan
  • Access to complimentary tickets to Nationals home games
  • Employee discounts
  • Free onsite fitness center

Equal Opportunity Employer:
The Nationals are dedicated to offering equal employment and advancement opportunities to all individuals regardless of their race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, personal appearance, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, family responsibilities, matriculation, political affiliation, genetic information, disability, or any other protected characteristic under applicable law.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.


Coordinator, Minor League Hitting (Upper Level)

Position Summary
The Washington Nationals are seeking a minor league hitting coordinator to join in creating a world-class hitting pipeline. The hitting coordinator will report to and work closely with the Director of Hitting and PD leadership to implement a cross-discipline, strategic philosophy to build a sustainable system of player and staff development. This position will also work closely with affiliate hitting coaches to develop individualized player performance plans. Ideal candidates embody our core values (joy, humility, integrity, and competitiveness) and are highly motivated, with a proactive and creative growth mindset.

This is a roving position that will be focused on the upper levels (AAA, AA, A+) and include travel to respective affiliates throughout the season.

Primary Responsibilities

  • Oversee implementation of organizational hitting philosophies at the upper minor league levels (AAA, AA, A+).
  • Communicate regularly with affiliate hitting coaches to provide support, feedback, and staff development opportunities throughout the season.
  • Collaborate with Director of Hitting, hitting coaches, and support staff to create player-specific offensive improvement plans.
  • Collaborate with medical and S&C departments to ensure the execution of rehabilitation and return-to-play programs.
  • Track player hitting performance and provide data-driven insights using baseball technology and other analytical tools.
  • Ensure healthy communication to execute a world-class transition process as players move from level to level.

Qualifications

  • Detail-oriented with a strong ability to create inventive programming and practice design.
  • Proven experience organizing and connecting a cohesive team that embodies the organization’s values and vision.
  • Demonstrated ability to lead and communicate clearly and effectively, challenging and empowering teammates to grow personally and professionally.
  • Strong decision-making skills and track record applying analytical ideas and data-driven concepts within baseball.
  • Prior experience coaching or leading in an innovative baseball performance setting.

Compensation:
The projected annual salary range for this contracted position is $100,000 – $125,000 per year. Actual pay is based on several factors, including but not limited to the applicant’s: qualifications, skills, expertise, education/training, certifications, and other organization requirements. Starting salaries for new employees are frequently not at the top of the applicable salary range.

Benefits:
The Nationals offer a competitive and comprehensive benefits package that presently includes:

  • Medical, dental, vision, life and AD&D insurance
  • Short- and long-term disability insurance
  • Flexible spending accounts
  • 401(k) and pension plan
  • Access to complimentary tickets to Nationals home games
  • Employee discounts
  • Free onsite fitness center

Equal Opportunity Employer:
The Nationals are dedicated to offering equal employment and advancement opportunities to all individuals regardless of their race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, personal appearance, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, family responsibilities, matriculation, political affiliation, genetic information, disability, or any other protected characteristic under applicable law.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.


Dietitian, Major League

Position Summary
The Major League Nutritionist will serve as the architect of the Nationals’ nutritional strategy at the Major League level. This individual will ensure that all players and staff have access to world-class nutrition resources that optimize performance, recovery, and health. The role includes developing individualized nutrition plans, coordinating daily fueling and hydration logistics, and aligning nutrition objectives with the goals of other departments, including Coaching, Strength & Conditioning, Player Development, and Medical.

The position will travel approximately 50% of the time with the Major League team and maintain consistent communication with internal staff, visiting clubhouses, vendors, and food service providers to ensure consistent, high-quality nutritional offerings at home and on the road.

The Nationals are a military-friendly organization actively recruiting veterans and spouses.

Primary Responsibilities
Alongside key stakeholders, lead the development of a world-class nutrition infrastructure, including:

  • Design and oversee individualized, evidence-based nutrition and hydration plans and testing protocols for all Major League players based on performance goals, body composition, and health needs.
  • Coordinate day-to-day fueling operations for players and staff, including meals, snacks, and supplements at home and on the road.
  • Work directly with the Major League strength & conditioning, coaching, and medical staffs to ensure nutrition plans align with physical, performance, and recovery objectives.
  • Serve as the primary liaison to food vendors, visiting clubhouses, and hotel staff to ensure the Nationals’ standards for quality and nutrition are consistently met.
  • Develop education programs for players and staff to reinforce the role of nutrition in performance, health, and recovery.
  • Monitor player adherence to nutrition plans and collaborate with staff to evaluate outcomes and adjust strategies as needed.
  • Manage inventory and budget for nutritional supplies, ensuring efficient use of resources while maintaining elite standards.
  • Collaborate with Minor League Nutrition and Performance staff to ensure consistency in nutrition philosophy and transition plans for developing players.

Qualifications

  • Bachelor’s degree in nutrition, Dietetics, Exercise Science, or related field (Master’s preferred).
  • Registered Dietitian (RD/RDN) credential required; CSSD certification preferred.
  • Servsafe certification and ISAK certification preferred or interest in obtaining
  • Minimum 3 years of experience in elite athletics, preferably MLB or professional sport setting.
  • Strong interpersonal and communication skills, with ability to collaborate effectively across departments.
  • Ability to communicate in Spanish preferred.
  • Proven ability to manage travel schedules, vendor relationships, and operational logistics.
  • Deep understanding of performance nutrition, recovery strategies, and the demands of a professional baseball season.

Personal Qualities:

  • Detail-oriented and highly organized.
  • Strong communicator capable of earning trust and buy-in from players and staff.
  • Flexible and proactive problem solver, able to adapt quickly to the demands of the season.
  • Passionate about helping athletes reach their peak potential through science-based nutritional support.

Compensation:
The projected annual salary range for this contracted position is $105,000 to $125,000 per year. Actual pay is based on several factors, including but not limited to the applicant’s: qualifications, skills, expertise, education/training, certifications, and other organization requirements. Starting salaries for new employees are frequently not at the top of the applicable salary range.

Benefits:
The Nationals offer a competitive and comprehensive benefits package that presently includes:

  • Medical, dental, vision, life and AD&D insurance
  • Short- and long-term disability insurance
  • Flexible spending accounts
  • 401(k) and pension plan
  • Access to complimentary tickets to Nationals home games
  • Employee discounts
  • Free onsite fitness center

Equal Opportunity Employer:
The Nationals are dedicated to offering equal employment and advancement opportunities to all individuals regardless of their race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, personal appearance, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, family responsibilities, matriculation, political affiliation, genetic information, disability, or any other protected characteristic under applicable law.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.


Coach, Minor League Strength & Conditioning

Position Summary
The Washington Nationals are looking for a Strength and Conditioning Coach to serve one of our affiliate teams for the 2026 season. Responsibilities of this position will include assisting in the creation and implementation of the Washington Nationals Minor League Strength and Conditioning Program during Spring Training of 2026 and at their assigned affiliate for the 2026 minor league season.

Primary Responsibilities

  • Implementation of the organization’s strength and conditioning program
  • Implementing and supervising the Nationals Strength & Conditioning program at their assigned affiliate the 2026 championship season.
  • Collection, organization, and dissemination of workload data collected both in-game and practice.
  • Daily, Weekly, and Monthly reporting on players training data and progress
  • Communication between departments regarding player assessments and evaluations.
  • Assist with nutritional needs for their assigned affiliate.
  • Contacting players as well as assisting with their programs held over the off-season.

Qualifications

Requirements:

  • Bachelor’s Degree in Exercise Science, Kinesiology, or Related Field
  • Certification through the NSCA (CSCS)
  • CPR/AED/First Aid
  • Vehicle and Laptop computer

Preferred:

  • Master’s Degree in Exercise Science, Kinesiology, or Related Field
  • Experience using a variety of sport science devices such as 1080 Motion Devices, Vald Ecosystem, GymAware, etc.
  • 2 years of strength and conditioning experience (baseball experience preferred)
  • Bilingual (Spanish)
  • Willingness to learn and continue their education within and beyond the Strength and Conditioning field

Compensation:

  • Salary will be based on qualifications and experience
  • Room & Board during Spring Training
  • In-season housing allowance and meal money on road trips
  • Health benefits and a 401k package are provided
  • Airfare or mileage reimbursement will be provided to Spring Training and their assigned affiliate

Application Information
Submission Instructions: Please email a single PDF copy of your cover letter, resume, and 3 references to Gabe Torres at gabe.torres@nationals.com and Shane Hill at Shane.Hill@nationals.com

Original Posting:
Please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Washington Nationals.


Job Posting: San Diego Padres – Intern, Sports Science

Intern, Sports Science

DEPARTMENT: Sports Science
REPORTS TO: Director, Sports Science
STATUS: Seasonal; Non-Exempt

*This seasonal position will end after 6 months but less than 1 year from the start of employment. *

San Diego Padres Commitment:
The San Diego Padres are committed to creating a diverse and inclusive environment for our employees. We strive to create an environment for everyone by including perspectives from backgrounds that vary by race, ethnicity, religion, gender, age, disability, sexual orientation, veteran status, and national origin.

If you are not sure you’re 100% qualified but are up for the challenge – we want you to apply. We believe skills are transferable and passion for our mission goes a long way.

Your role as an Intern, Sports Science:
You will collect, organize, analyze and report player measurables including ball, bat, and body tracking data to help deliver actionable insights to stakeholders across multiple departments. You will aid in the creation, implementation, and monitoring of individualized Player Development goals.

All the responsibilities we will trust you with:

  • Overseeing the implementation of various technologies at affiliates or spring training complex
  • Obtaining expert-level knowledge of the interfaces of each technology. Ensuring the collection of data is seamless and unintrusive to the normal flow of the day
  • Conducting and ensuring proper and timely administration of tests/retests to evaluate physical and physiological responses to training
  • Working within an interdisciplinary team to build and generate accurate and actionable reports. Assisting with the interpretation of data & reports for multiple stakeholders
  • Contribute to the continued education of all players, coaches, and other staff on the technologies and analytics being used by the Padres and the meaning of their output for all facets of the game
  • Leveraging SQL and research skills to quickly conduct ad-hoc queries for PD coaches and staff
  • Assisting in the implementation and operation of Hawk-Eye data collection
  • Ensuring the Hawk-Eye unit is functioning properly for all games and relevant bullpen sessions, live BPs, etc.
  • Ensuring the accurate and organized collection of Hawk-Eye data for medical and/or R&D processes
  • Overseeing the transfer of Hawk-Eye data to all pertinent downstream users
  • Obtaining required knowledge to support the understanding and implementation of Hawk-Eye ball-, bat-, and player-tracking data to coaches
  • Timely interpretation and communication of pertinent data to key stakeholders
  • Assisting Player Development personnel with the integration of information provided by the other departments of Baseball Operations
  • Overseeing the implementation and use of the player dashboard, obtain expert level knowledge of its functions, and support in the communication of advance reports and other relevant data
  • Represents the Club in a positive and professional manner at all times
  • Other duties as assigned

Your areas of knowledge and expertise that matter most:

  • Maintain an understanding of current public baseball research and emerging statistical tools, datasets, and technologies
  • Proficiency in data visualization/interpretation and programming is a plus
  • Proficient computer skills including experience with MS Office products such as Word, Excel, PowerPoint and Outlook, and general knowledge of office skills and use of office equipment
  • Possess strong communication skills, both written and verbal, and effectively work well with others in a collaborative, respectful manner
  • Exceptional time management and organizational skills with capacity to handle high volumes of detailed work, multi-task and manage projects on strict deadlines
  • Maintain professional demeanor with a high degree of discretion, integrity, and accountability
  • Maintain consistent, punctual, and reliable attendance
  • Fluently bilingual in English/Spanish a plus, but not necessary

You will be required to meet the following:

  • Must be at least 18 years of age by the start of employment
  • 4-year Bachelor’s Degree or Master’s Degree in related field. Course work in biomechanics, sports science, or kinesiology is a plus
  • Able to work independently within a larger diverse team requiring constant communication
  • Able to work flexible hours including evenings, weekends, holidays and extended hours as needed
  • Able to travel as needed
  • Minimum physical requirements: able to travel to and gain access to various areas of the ballpark for prolonged periods of time during games and events; able to lift and transport up to 25 pounds
  • As a condition of employment, you must successfully complete all post-offer, pre-employment requirements, including but not limited to a background check 

Pay and additional compensation:
The hourly pay rate for this position is $15.15 in AZ. Seasonal, non-union employees are subject to the respective state Minimum Wage and rates will increase accordingly.

In addition to your hourly rate, the Padres offer PTO, employee discounts, appreciation, and recognition opportunities.

The San Diego Padres are an Equal Opportunity Employer.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the San Diego Padres.


Sunday Notes: The Red Sox Expect Sonny Gray to Be Better Than Walker Buehler

The Boston Red Sox made a pre-Thanksgiving trade on Tuesday, acquiring Sonny Gray from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for 25-year-old right-hander Richard Fitts and hard-throwing prospect Brandon Clarke. How well the deal works out for Craig Breslow’s club is anyone’s guess — my colleague Michael Baumann wrote that he couldn’t “declare this trade to be a robbery in either direction” — but the 36-year-old righty does have a track record of reliability. Gray has graced a big-league mound 92 times over the past three seasons, gobbling up 531 innings and posting a 3.63 ERA as well as a 3.11 FIP. If he can continue to fend off Father Time a while longer, the erstwhile Vanderbilt Commodore will add value to the Red Sox starting rotation.

A Vandy product Boston brought on board as a free agent last winter came to mind when the trade was announced. That would be Walker Buehler, who despite high hopes ultimately proved to be a bust. Unable to return to old form, the veteran righty struggled to a 5.45 ERA over 112-and-a-third innings and was cut loose by the Red Sox in late August.

There are clear differences between the two pitchers — their respective health histories particularly stand out — but they nonetheless have things in common. One is a diverse repertoire. Another is a lack of high-octane heaters.

Buehler was in the 43rd percentile for fastball velocity in 2025, while Gray was in just the 16th percentile. As Baumann pointed out, the latter “has started leaking fastball velocity… [but has] compensated by leaning into a cutter and changeup, making him a legit six-pitch pitcher since 2023.” Meanwhile, the 31-year-old Buehler leaned heavily on a six-pitch mix while compensating for the velocity he lost following Tommy John surgery in 2022. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: November 29, 2025

Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

As Members of our site, you probably know by now that FanGraphs goes dark on most national holidays, as we were the past two days. We believe our staff deserves to enjoy holidays without having to worry about working, and our readers tend to have plans that don’t involve reading about baseball or staring at statistics on a screen. The exception is when news breaks that would prompt our readers to stop what they’re doing and rush to the site for analysis, such as a major transaction involving a star player. So for a few hours on Wednesday afternoon, as chatter picked up that Dylan Cease was nearing a deal with the Blue Jays, Meg and I both prepared for the possibility that we might need to work a bit on Thanksgiving, especially because the team in question plays in a country that doesn’t observe the holiday on the same day Americans do. Fortunately — ahem, thankfully — Cease agreed to a seven-year, $210 million contract with Toronto in time for Michael Baumann to write up the news and for us to edit and publish it Wednesday night.

The Cease signing was the latest move in what has already been a fairly active offseason. The Cardinals traded starting pitcher Sonny Gray to the Red Sox on Tuesday, two days after the Mets and Rangers made a one-for-one swap of former All-Stars. I learned of the Brandon Nimmo-for-Marcus Semien exchange around 2 AM Central European Standard Time on Monday, after I made the chaotic decision to wake up and watch the Rams-Buccaneers game before what turned out to be a roughly 24-hour travel day from Italy to New York. Following my initial surprise, I couldn’t help but wonder if Nimmo’s former teammate Matt Harvey would once again pitch for Team Italy in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.

We won’t be covering any of these moves in this week’s mailbag. Instead, we’ll be answering your questions about the best unmade baseball movie, JJ Wetherholt, the marginal value of team runs scored and individual offensive production, and more. Before we do, though, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2407: Snap Judgements

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley bring on top-tier Patreon supporter Becca Balton to banter about Becca’s baseball background, her origins as a listener, and the Nationals’ new direction, then (17:51) answer emails about a team WAR cap, an extra-innings variant in which the team to score fastest wins, manager close-ups on postseason broadcasts, citing the stats of a particular pitch, a pitch-based skills competition, and the “corners” of the strike zone, followed (1:09:33) by Stat Blasts about postseason series MVPs with negative (c)WPAs, pitchers who earned their first save in their final appearance, the oldest/most-experienced pitchers to push their career records over .500 for the first time, and teams that swept the major awards in the shortest spans, plus a postscript on the Dylan Cease signing and more.

Audio intro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Austin Klewan, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Yesavage splitter stats
Link to Babe Ruth Award wiki
Link to Kershaw/Stafford backstory
Link to xkcd “Ten Thousand” comic
Link to Stafford stat
Link to Stafford’s season
Link to QB wins leaders
Link to Nightengale column
Link to BP on MLB’s “losses”
Link to MaML on Karcher
Link to listener emails database
Link to Jesser’s YouTube channel
Link to Rendon report
Link to MLBTR on Cease
Link to Baumann on Cease
Link to Secret Santa sign-up

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Give a Gift Subscription
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com
 Effectively Wild Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Apple Podcasts Feed 
 Spotify Feed
 YouTube Playlist
 Facebook Group
 Bluesky Account
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!


Blue Jays Render Unto Cease What Is Cease’s: $210 Million

David Frerker-Imagn Images

The stove was already hot the week before Thanksgiving. But on Wednesday evening, the Toronto Blue Jays threw some logs on the fire and aimed a leaf blower at the damn thing, and now the proverbial stove is hot enough to melt soda cans into aluminum ingots.

Dylan Cease has signed with the reigning AL champions, and for what they offered him — $210 million over seven years — you’d be packing your bags for Canada, too. Looks like someone can shell out for the fancy cranberry sauce this Thanksgiving. Read the rest of this entry »


Stick Wyatt Langford in Center, Cowards!

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

During an introductory press conference for outfielder Brandon Nimmo this week, Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young somehow expressed both confidence and uncertainty about his newest acquisition. Nimmo, he said, would handle right field for the Rangers in 2026, though he didn’t sound too sure about it.

“We’re not 100 percent committed to [Nimmo in right],” Young told reporters on Monday. “I think it’s likely where he’ll play, but [those are] conversations that we’ll have with Brandon, with [manager] Skip [Schumaker] and with Wyatt [Langford], and really making sure that we understand all aspects of this and where they’re most comfortable. I do think we have three very good, talented, very talented outfielders. At the outset, I think it’s likely Brandon plays right, but I think that’s a further conversation.”

There are a number of considerations here. Nimmo, at this phase of his career, is almost certainly best in left field. His knees are jacked up; his arm is noodle-adjacent. Evan Carter nominally profiles as a center fielder, but injuries have kept him off the field for much of the last two seasons; it’s possible a corner could be the best way to ensure his availability. Langford’s known right field experience is limited to a single game for the 2022 Peninsula Pilots of the collegiate summer Coastal Plain League.

In my view, there’s only one way to sort this mess out: Commit to playing Langford in center. Read the rest of this entry »


Connelly Early on Facing Jacob Wilson, and Vice Versa

Sergio Estrada and Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

Connelly Early emerged as one of the top pitching prospects in the Boston Red Sox organization this season. The 23-year-old left-hander logged a 2.60 ERA and a 2.74 FIP over 101 1/3 minor league innings, then allowed just five runs over 19 1/3 innings following a September call-up. His first two major league outings — he made four regular season starts in all — were especially impressive. Facing the Athletics on each occasion, Early worked a combined 10 1/3 frames, surrendering a lone run, issuing one free pass and fanning 18 batters.

Jacob Wilson had some noteworthy at-bats against the young southpaw. The A’s shortstop went 2-for-5 against him, singling twice (one of them an infield hit), and also striking out twice. The strikeouts stand out when you consider Wilson’s profile. The second-place finisher in this year’s American League Rookie of the Year race recorded a 7.5% strikeout rate, the lowest among qualified hitters not named Luis Arraez.

The number of pitches he saw from Early (28) and how they were sequenced is what prompted me to put together the article you are currently reading. Between the two games, Early threw Wilson seven curveballs, seven changeups, five sinkers, four sliders, and four four-seamers. And with the exception of back-to-back curveballs in their first matchup, Early didn’t double up on a pitch. That especially caught my eye the fourth time they faced each other when Wilson went down swinging to end a nine-pitch at-bat.

The day after the Early and Wilson battled for a second time, I approached both to ask what they’d seen from each other. As they wouldn’t be matching up again in 2025, asking them for their scouting reports on one another seemed fair game for discussion.

I began with the shortstop. Read the rest of this entry »