Look, I get it. You keep refreshing FanGraphs, and it keeps saying that the Mets are 99.9999% likely to make the playoffs (okay, fine, 79.4%). You’ve seen the Mets play, though. They stink! They’re 32-48 since June 13. The White Sox are better than that! We think they’re going to make the playoffs? These Mets?! What, do we not watch the games or something?

Well, to be fair, our models don’t actually watch the games. They’re just code snippets. But given how the Mets’ recent swoon has created the most interesting playoff race in baseball this year, and given that our odds keep favoring them to pull out of a tailspin, the time is ripe to re-evaluate how our playoff odds perform. When we say a team is 80% likely to make the playoffs, what does that mean? Read on to find out.

In 2021, I sliced the data up in two ways to get an idea of what was going on. My conclusions were twofold. First, our model does a good job of saying what it does on the tin: Teams that we give an 80% playoff chance make the playoffs about 80% of the time, and so on. Second, our model’s biggest edge comes from the extremes. It’s at its best determining that teams are very likely, or very unlikely, to make the playoffs. Our flagship model did better than a model that uses season-to-date statistics to estimate team strength in the aggregate, with that coverage of extreme teams doing a lot of the work. Read the rest of this entry »

Freddy Peralta is having arguably the greatest season of his excellent eight-year career. The right-hander has ridden a career-best 2.69 ERA to a career-high 16 wins. However, I used the word arguably for a reason. Peralta’s 3.64 FIP is just the fourth best of his career, and his 3.93 xFIP is tied with 2024 for his fifth best. There’s a gap of 0.95 runs per nine innings between his FIP and his ERA. When you multiply that times his actual innings total of 163 2/3, FIP thinks he should’ve given up just over 17 more earned runs than he actually has allowed. None of this is surprising. Pitchers underperform or overperform their peripherals all the time. The interesting thing is that Statcast says that no pitcher has benefitted as much from the defense behind him as Peralta. When he’s has been on the mound, the Brewers defense has been worth just under 14 fielding runs. It’s neither this simple or this clean-cut, but it’s easy to combine these two numbers and make an inference: Defense can explain more than 80% of the difference between Peralta’s FIP and ERA.

On the other end of the spectrum is Peralta’s teammate Brandon Woodruff, who returned from shoulder surgery in July and has gone 6-2 over 11 starts and 59 2/3 innings. He’s posted a 3.32 ERA, 3.26 FIP, and 3.40 xFIP. In other words, FIP thinks Woodruff has gotten exactly what he’s deserved. However, Woodruff’s xERA is a scant 2.27. When you combine all those numbers, it means Statcast thinks several batted balls that should have resulted in outs instead fell in for non-homer base hits. The difference is a bit over six runs. Coincidentally or not, Statcast says the Milwaukee defense has been at its worst behind Woodruff, costing him just under five runs, once again just about 80% of the gap between an ERA estimator and his actual ERA.

That’s why we’re talking about Peralta and Woodruff. No two teammates have a bigger gap between the fielding run value of the defense behind them. It’s nearly an 18-run gap! It’s jarring. With 26 FRV, Statcast thinks the Brewers have the fourth-best team defense in the game, but somehow none of that brilliance has been shining on Woodruff. We’re going to use Statcast data to break down, as best we can, the reasons behind it. Hopefully, the comparison will show the various ways a team can provide defensive value. Let’s start with the catching numbers. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Meg’s reaction to the Mariners moving into first place in the AL West (at least temporarily), Jac Caglianone and the Royals’ woeful corner-outfield offense, whether major leaguers have gotten better at sliding, and an unjust byproduct of the zombie runner. Then (50:43) they bring on baseball researcher and Sports Reference designer Adam Darowski to discuss Robinson Canó’s 4000th professional hit and Adam’s work on the 4000 hits club.

Audio intro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Moon Hound, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Alonso quote
Link to mustache/witch article
Link to more on the witch
Link to even more on the witch
Link to 2021 Stat Blast
Link to M’s pitching query
Link to B-Ref newsletter
Link to Langs M’s note
Link to team travel
Link to team extra innings pitched
Link to 2025 worst team LF/RF
Link to worst team LF/RF since 2002
Link to Royals LF
Link to Royals RF
Link to playoff odds
Link to Jac’s leading xwOBA-wOBA
Link to Moniak slide
Link to Moniak slide close-up
Link to Crizer on slides
Link to Cameron on slides
Link to Cameron on slides 2
Link to Treinen game
Link to previous Treinen-type losses
Link to Treinen nickname article
Link to @PitchingNinja tweet
Link to Treinen conspiracy posts
Link to Canó video
Link to Canó video 2
Link to Canó article
Link to Canó article 2
Link to Adam’s Canó post
Link to Canó Insta post
Link to Canó Insta post 2
Link to Canó Insta post 3
Link to Canó Insta post 4
Link to Canó Insta post 5
Link to Canó cards story
Link to Adam’s presentation
Link to Simkus SABR article
Link to BP 4K club article
Link to Adam’s website
Link to underarm serve article 1
Link to underarm serve article 2
Link to eephus pitch wiki

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All of a sudden the NL Wild Card race looks a lot more exciting, while the playoff picture in the AL had a big shakeup over the weekend. It’s bound to be an exciting final two weeks of the regular season.

Last year, we revamped our power rankings using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance. To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). The weighted Elo ranks are then displayed as “Power Score” in the tables below. As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.

First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — there are times where I take editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Once upon a time — as of June 12, to be exact — the Mets had the best record in the majors (45-24) and a 5 1/2-game lead over the Phillies in the NL East. That afternoon, however, their rotation took a major hit when Kodai Senga strained his right hamstring. He hasn’t fully recovered his form, and it’s been mostly downhill for the Mets since then, even with their attempts to fortify their bullpen at the trade deadline, the arrival of some impressive rookie starters, and an MVP-caliber stretch by Juan Soto. The team entered Sunday on an eight-game losing streak that pushed them to the brink of elimination from the NL East race, and in danger of falling out of the third NL Wild Card spot.

The combination of Pete Alonso’s walk-off three-run homer off the Rangers’ Luis Curvelo, and losses by both the division-leading Phillies and the Giants (who now trail the Mets by 1 1/2 games in the Wild Card race) helped the Mets stave off those ignominious scenarios for the moment. Even so, the Phillies’ magic number to clinch is one, as they lead the NL East by 12 games with 12 to play. Not only are the Giants (75-74) on the Mets’ tail, but the Diamondbacks (75-75) are just two games behind, with the Reds (74-75) 2 1/2 behind. Read the rest of this entry »

Keegan Matheson has a beard. Let’s start there. Matheson is MLB.com’s Blue Jays beat writer and he has a beard. It’s a big, glorious, pointy beard, and it’s attached to his face and everything.

Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman has a beard too. It’s not glorious like Matheson’s. The right-hander usually opts for a few days’ growth, but in recent weeks, he’s been going a step further. It’s still patchy in the cheeks. Closeups show you individual hairs splayed in whichever direction their whimsy takes them. All the same, more often than not, Gausman has been moving beyond stubble status and into the beginnings of beard territory. Gausman has also been pitching quite well lately, running a 2.25 ERA and 3.00 FIP over his past 10 starts.

Last Thursday, Matheson watched Gausman mow down the Astros, pitching a shutout with nine strikeouts, two walks, and one hit, and made the connection. “The nerds won’t tell you this because their charts won’t show it,” he posted on Bluesky, “but Kevin Gausman’s recent hot streak has a direct correlation to him embracing a beard. Something to monitor.” Read the rest of this entry »

Cam Schlittler was on the doorstep of the big leagues when he led Sunday Notes on the penultimate day of June. Just 10 days later, the 24-year-old right-hander took the mound at Yankee Stadium against the Seattle Mariners and earned a win in his MLB debut. He’s been a presence in New York’s rotation ever since. In 11 starts for the pinstripers, Schlittler has a 3-3 record to go with a 3.05 ERA and a 3.73 FIP over 56 solid innings.

The 98-mph cut-ride fastball that Schlittler addressed in the article has been his most prominent pitch. Thrown at a 56.2% clip, it has elicited a .202 BAA and just a .298 slug. Augmenting the high-octane heater are a quartet of secondaries — none of which is the offering he planned to add to his arsenal this season.

“When I talked to you in the spring, I was working on a splitter,” Schlittler told me at Fenway Park on Friday. “But I just couldn’t figure it out. I didn’t want to go into the season competing with something I wasn’t really comfortable throwing, so I stopped throwing it.”

The 2022 seventh-round pick Northeastern University product began this season in Double-A, where he attacked hitters with the aforementioned fastball, a sweeper, and a curveball. He introduced a cutter — “metrically, it’s kind of in-between a slider and a cutter” — in his final start before being promoted to Triple-A in early June. He’s since added a two-seamer, giving him a pitch he can use to bore in on righties.

Which brings us back to the shelved splitter. Why does the young hurler feel that he wasn’t able to master the pitch? Read the rest of this entry »

When Gerardo Parra took the mound for the Nationals on August 3, 2019, with his team trailing 11-4 in the eighth inning in Arizona, he had no way of knowing the dubious history he was about to make in the only pitching appearance of his 12-year career. He walked the first three batters he faced, allowed an RBI single to Alex Avila, and then walked Diamondbacks reliever Zack Godley to bring home another run. That was enough for manager Davey Martinez, who opted to replace Parra on the bump with second baseman Brian Dozer to face the lefty-hitting Jarrod Dyson. To set up his desired defensive alignment without making a substitution, Martinez moved third baseman Anthony Rendon to the keystone and sent the left-handed Parra to the hot corner — a position he’d never played before. Dyson doubled home two runs, both charged to Parra. As switch-hitter Ketel Marte stepped into the right-handed batter’s box to face Dozer’s floaters, Martinez flipped Rendon and Parra, who then made his first and only career appearance at second. Marte flied out to right before Eduardo Escobar, a switch-hitter also batting right-handed, launched a three-run homer, with the first of those runs also landing on Parra’s ledger.

Of course, three months later, the Nationals would win their first and only World Series championship, with Parra conducting rousing renditions of “Baby Shark” every time he batted in Washington, but on that particular early-August night, things got ugly. With his final line of zero innings, five runs (all earned), four walks, and one hit, Parra became one of only three players to allow five or more runs without recording an out in their only career pitching appearance.

I bring this up because the first question in this week’s mailbag is about the worst major league pitcher ever. Parra is not the answer because he was not really a pitcher, but his outing was a fun bit of trivia I came across in my research, so I had no choice but to share it with you. Before we get to the actual worst-pitcher-ever candidates, I’d like to remind all of you that while anyone can submit a question, this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the deepening twilight of Mike Trout, then (21:19) discuss why the so-called “death of expertise” sweeping society hasn’t swept sports in the same way, before answering listener emails (1:04:01) about whether the Rangers are good, how the count can be “quickly 0-2,” what makes a righty seem like a lefty, whether a player can be unclutch, the Rockies’ run differential, and the other kind of pitch clock, plus (1:37:58) a postscript.

Audio intro: Philip Tapley and Michael Stokes, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Grant Brisbee, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to The Athletic on Trout
Link to Woodrum on velo
Link to hitter pitch speeds
Link to previous Trout talk
Link to The Death of Expertise
Link to the WSJ on physics
Link to the New Yorker article
Link to Manfred analytics quote
Link to politics WAR
Link to Democracy at the Ballpark
Link to the Hard Knocks reference
Link to Paine on the Rangers
Link to Dubuque on Helman
Link to previous Burger banter
Link to BaseRuns standings
Link to playoff odds
Link to Brebbia report
Link to leaguewide late & close
Link to Alvarez late & close
Link to worst run differentials
Link to illustrated pitch movement
Link to Statcast spin direction
Link to clock-reading survey
Link to listener emails database
Link to Baseball Reliquary interview
Link to Buehler comments

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