This post is part of a series concerning the 2020 Modern Baseball Era Committee ballot, covering executives and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon at the Winter Meetings in San Diego on December 8. For an introduction to JAWS, see here. Several profiles in this series are adapted from work previously published at SI.com, Baseball Prospectus, and Futility Infielder. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

From his matinee-idol good looks as he filled out his red, white, and Dodger blue uniform to the round-numbered triple-crown stats on the back of his baseball card, Steve Garvey looked like a Hall of Famer in the making for much of his 19-year playing career (1969-87). A remarkably consistent and durable player, he had a clockwork ability to rap out 200 hits, bat .300 with 20 homers, and drive in 100 runs, all while maintaining perfectly-coiffed hair and never missing a game. He holds the NL record for consecutive games played (1,207 from September 3, 1975, to July 29, 1983), a streak that’s still the majors’ fourth-longest after those of Cal Ripken Jr., Lou Gehrig, and Everett Scott. He was the most heralded member of the Dodgers’ legendary Longest-Running Infield alongside second baseman Davey Lopes, shortstop Bill Russell, and third baseman Ron Cey, earning All-Star honors in each of the eight full seasons (1974-81) the unit was together while helping the team to four pennants and a championship. After moving on from Los Angeles, Garvey made two more All-Star teams while helping the Padres to their first pennant.

As the most popular player on my favorite childhood team, and the one who seemed to shine most brightly on the biggest stages, Garvey felt larger than life. An Adidas poster of him standing upon what was supposed to be the moon, captioned, “The harder you hit it, the further it goes,” hung on the wall of my younger brother’s bedroom. Yet when I began reading Bill James in the early 1980s, I was struck by the extent to which the new numbers took Garvey down a peg, though to be fair, he’d entered his mid-30s already beginning his decline, postseason heroics aside. Likewise, when I began writing about the Hall of Fame in early 2002, Garvey’s lack of traction on the ballot in his nine previous tries stood out. While I don’t think particularly highly of his chances or his case, I felt it was worth expanding beyond the two or three paragraphs I’ve devoted to him countless times over the years (he was on the writers’ ballot through 2007, and this is his fourth committee appearance).

Born in Tampa, Florida in 1948, Garvey connected with the Dodgers when he was just seven years old. In 1956, his father Joe, a Greyhound bus driver, was assigned to drive charter buses for the defending world champions at their Vero Beach spring training base, and arranged for his son to serve as a bat boy for the team, a position he occupied for the next six springs. Garvey idolized first baseman Gil Hodges and dreamed of playing for Los Angeles. Though small for a high school athlete (5-foot-7, 165 pounds; he would grow to 5-foot-10, 192 pounds), he excelled at baseball and football. Bypassing a chance to join the Twins after being drafted in the third round in 1966, he drew a scholarship to Michigan State University. Read the rest of this entry »

When Will Harris entered Game 7 of the World Series, the Astros were in the driver’s seat. There was only one out in the seventh, and Houston was up by a lone run, but teams in that position usually win — per our Win Expectancy chart, that situation ends in victory 68.7% of the time.

68.7% is notably not 100%, however. When Harris threw Howie Kendrick an 0-1 cutter, Kendrick demonstrated why:

The game wasn’t over after that home run, but it proved decisive nonetheless. The Nationals never relinquished the lead, tacking on insurance runs in the eighth and ninth, and sharked their way to a World Series title. Harris gave up a single to Asdrúbal Cabrera before Roberto Osuna replaced him; after the game, he became a free agent, and may never pitch for the Astros again. Read the rest of this entry »

“How ridiculous and how strange to be surprised at anything which happens in life.” – Marcus Aurelius, (translated from The Meditations)

The Arizona Diamondbacks didn’t enter last offseason with a plan to burn everything to ashes and then burn the ashes. After all, being able to choose how to rebuild is one of the benefits of not waiting until circumstances have eliminated more appealing options. Arizona remained in contention despite trading Paul Goldschmidt last offseason and shedding Eephus god Zack Greinke in July, and the club looks like a viable Wild Card contender entering 2020.

The Setup

The D-backs faced a Goldschmidt-sized conundrum after the 2018 season. The longtime middle-of-the-order slugger was a year from free agency, and the team couldn’t have been thrilled at the prospect of an extension for an aging first baseman, a deal likely to eclipse $25 million a year. The 2018 team went just 82-80 with Goldschmidt, and the improving farm system was still far from elite, so it made the decision to trade a single year of America’s First Baseman if the right package came along. The Cardinals made the winning offer in the form of Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andy Young, and a Competitive Balance Round B pick; in Weaver and Kelly, Arizona received two players with the potential to contribute immediately in crucial roles, softening the loss Goldschmidt.

While there was some concern from the fan base that this move heralded the start of an old-fashioned fire sale, nothing quite so dramatic actually materialized. Endless rumors swirled around Greinke, but Arizona wasn’t, and the team was more than happy to have its ace return for the 2019 season. Arizona saw Christian Walker as the best candidate to replace Goldschmidt at first, and with Walker out of options, the team hoped he’d make a case for a starting job in spring training (he did). Read the rest of this entry »

Meg Rowley and Sam Miller banter about Ben Lindbergh’s vacation-induced absence, an unusual umpire Wikipedia entry, and the acceptability of failure, before turning their attention to a few listener emails answered during the Jeff Sullivan era, including what would happen if Giancarlo Stanton only tried to hit home runs, how they would prefer to consume baseball if they could only do so through either twitter or a livestream, and whether baseball would be better if it were played in masks.

Audio intro: Death Cab for Cutie “I Dreamt We Spoke Again”
Audio outro: Dashboard Confessional “Living in Your Letters“

Link to Sam’s Giancarlo Stanton home run piece
Link to the Effectively Wild Email Question Database
Link to order The MVP Machine

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After breaking a four-year mini-drought of division titles by winning the National League East in 2018, the Atlanta Braves have been hesitant to make any long-term commitments to improve their roster. Their biggest signing of last winter, Josh Donaldson, was brought in on a one-year deal. They replaced starting catcher Kurt Suzuki with Brian McCann, who also signed on a one-year deal. By the time they brought in Dallas Keuchel, the contract covered less than four months of baseball, and when they made upgrades at the 2019 trade deadline, they did so by adding a pair of relievers with a year and a half of team control left. So far, it’s hard to say the plan hasn’t worked — they added seven wins in 2019 — but there’s little doubt Braves fans will be looking for more serious investments this winter. The free agency period is less than 24 hours old, so there’s plenty of time for Atlanta to make those bigger moves in the coming weeks and months. On Day 1, however, the team stuck with the same plan of short-term roster maintenance.

The Braves signed both outfielder Nick Markakis and catcher Tyler Flowers to one-year, $4 million contracts on Monday. Each move carried with it some payroll trickery; Markakis and Flowers each had $6 million options for 2020, but Atlanta declined them in favor of paying $2 million buyouts to each. Both players still make $6 million in 2020, but the Braves can direct the $4 million in buyouts onto their 2019 payroll, according to MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Atlanta also declined a $12 million club option to Julio Teheran — who hasn’t reached an agreement to remain with the team — and issued a $17.8 million qualifying offer to Donaldson.

The two signings are identical in length and value, but could come with different expectations for each player. Markakis turns 36 in a couple of weeks. This is the third-straight contract he’s signed with Atlanta. The first came before 2015, a four-year commitment worth $44 million. That deal was something of a dud for the first three years, but in 2018, he turned in his best season in years. He hit .297/.366/.440, with a 115 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR that made him a pleasant surprise for the resurgent Braves. It was his most valuable season since 2008 and his best offensive season since 2012, and was enticing enough for Atlanta to bet $4 million that he would continue to hit well enough to merit a starting corner outfield spot on a contending team.

Instead, Markakis looked like, well, a 35-year-old version of Markakis. His wRC+ dipped to 102, his already-mediocre defense took an extra step back, and he missed six weeks with a wrist injury, culminating in a career-low 0.4 WAR in 116 games. His walk and strikeout rates remained excellent, but his power slid backwards, as did his batted ball luck. The biggest decline came in his performance against lefties. An up-and-down performer in the split throughout his career, he went from a 104 wRC+ against southpaws in 2018 to a 71 this year. His success against righties dropped as well, but only from a 120 wRC+ to 112. There’s some good news in Markarkis’ underlying data — his average exit velocity (91.2 mph) and xwOBA (.349) were both his best marks posted in the Statcast era — but his low launch angle and expected slugging marks put a limit on just how dangerous he can be with his bat, which is clearly the only thing keeping him employed at this age. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I discussed a few of the qualifying offer decisions facing teams and players this offseason. Yesterday, we learned which players found themselves on the receiving end of a QO. What happened and, given my analysis last week, what are the potential consequences? Let’s take a look.

Received a Qualifying Offer

The Obvious Ones
Anthony Rendon, Gerrit Cole, Josh Donaldson, and Stephen Strasburg all received offers. I think I’m on fairly safe ground by assuming all four will be turned down and that none of these players will have their markets seriously altered or damaged by the loss of a draft pick.

José Abreu
José Abreu is the one player I didn’t address last week who I probably should have. I didn’t actually expect there was much chance of the White Sox making this offer. Abreu should absolutely accept this contract; Nelson Cruz was considerably older last winter, but was had just had a better season and came with no loss of a draft pick, and received just a one-year, $14.3 million deal with a team option.

ZiPS suggests Abreu could fetch a one-year, $10 million contract, considerably less than the qualifying offer; that also doesn’t account for the value of the lost of a draft pick. I suspect Abreu accepts, lest he becomes one of the top candidates this winter for the free agent who doesn’t sign until June.

Madison Bumgarner
Madison Bumgarner was an obvious recipient of a qualifying offer, but he’s worth noting separately due to the likely consequences it will have for his next contract. I didn’t include Bumgarner’s projection in the previous piece, but given that Steamer just came out with a 2.1 WAR forecast for the left-hander in 2020, it’s probably worth demonstrating that Steamer’s not an outlier:

This projection is for a neutral park, which matters for Bumgarner more than most. Bumgarner is more of a fly baller now than he was during his best years and doesn’t throw particularly hard, which is risky in a park that isn’t death to home runs. For his career, Bumgarner has a 58% higher HR/9 on the road than at home and with nearly a decade in the majors, that’s enough of a sample to declare it a concern instead of mere noise. ZiPS doesn’t explicitly use home/road data for individual players but it does see Bumgarner’s tendencies, valuing him at about 0.7 WAR per season more in San Francisco than in a neutral park. When you take the value of the draft pick into account, I’m not sure that Bumgarner is an obvious choice over Wade Miley given otherwise identical contracts.

Jake Odorizzi
The Twins made the smart move and extended a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. The loss of a draft pick for the signing team adds risk to Odorizzi’s decision. The ZiPS projection for the right-hander’s next four years (8.7 WAR) is better than Dallas Keuchel’s four-year projection was entering free agency last winter (8.5 WAR). The situations aren’t identical, but the experiences of Keuchel and other second-tier free agents with compensation attached ought to at least serve as a warning to Odorizzi.

Perhaps I’m being too optimistic, but I still think Odorizzi can get a contract in the four-year, $70 million range, even with the lost draft pick. I’d rather have Odorizzi now than Jake Arrieta after his final season with the Cubs and while it took until March, Arrieta still squeezed a three-year, $75 million deal out of the Phillies. If Odorizzi wants to roll the dice, it may not be the worst idea to take Minnesota’s offer and bet on himself to match 2019’s 4.3 WAR. If he does that two seasons in a row and enters free agency without any strings attached, he might be able to pass the $100 million mark.

Marcell Ozuna
The Cardinals gave Marcell Ozuna his QO and even though I don’t think his next deal will get within spitting distance of $100 million, the market for interesting, young-ish corner outfielders isn’t exactly deep, making Ozuna one of the more compelling options. I’d be surprised if he accepted.

Will Smith
I think the Giants’ decision to make Will Smith an offer was the right one. The question now whether Smith accepts and in this case, I think he should. It’s a fair one-year salary for an excellent closer and if 2019’s crazyball returns, Oracle Park is one of the safest places to be. Playing for the Giants will affect his save totals going into free agency, but really, how many teams are using save totals for evaluation purposes anymore?

Zack Wheeler
There was no trademark Mets unpredictability here, with the team extending a qualifying offer to Zack Wheeler just as it should have. It’s extremely unlikely that Wheeler accepts and, at least based on the ZiPS projections, appears headed for a deal somewhere in the five-year, $100 million range. I would personally have ranked Wheeler as the third-best starting pitcher available after Cole and Strasburg in our 2020 Top 50 Free Agent Rankings rather than Bumgarner, as Wheeler projects better over the next four years, in both their respective home parks and in a neutral one.

Did Not Receive a Qualifying Offer

The Yankees Trio
Suggesting that thrift will remain the watchword in New York, the Yankees did not extend qualifying offers to Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, or Dellin Betances. I still think the Yankees ought to have at least made an offer to Gregorius, who averaged 3.7 WAR in his first four seasons in New York. Gregorius will be just 30 for the entirety of the 2020 season and has to be tempting for a team with a short-term shortstop problem.

Kyle Gibson

As expected, the Twins did not extend a QO to Kyle Gibson, though the right-hander will still likely end up with a one-year deal. It might surprise you, but Gibson’s 2.6 WAR in 2019 was identical to his 2018 WAR. ERA-influenced perceptions are still a thing! Like Lance Lynn last winter, I think there’s a chance that Gibson is one of the best value signings for a team this winter.

Cole Hamels
I think Chicago made a mistake by not extending a QO to Cole Hamels. I know the Cubs have decided to do a whole song-and-dance routine about their so-called budget constraints, but they should have jumped at the chance to bring Hamels back so cheaply. There are no internal options that are better bets for 2020 than Hamels, and a better option in free agency will cost more. Would the Cubs be so curiously cheap if they didn’t already have the World Series win?

Rick Porcello
Despite my speculation as to what the case for an offer for Rick Porcello would consist of, I didn’t think there was ever a real chance the Red Sox would take this risk. With J.D. Martinez not opting out of his contract, the Red Sox may not have made the offer even if Porcello was a considerably better pitcher.

Wade Miley
Without a draft pick encumbering Wade Miley, I’d expect him to get a decent-sized, one-year deal in the range of $8-$12 million. Considering the last six weeks of the season, I don’t think he’ll get a multi-year deal.

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In this installment of the series, we’ll hear from three pitchers —Jace Fry, Mitch Keller, and Josh Taylor — on how they learned and developed their sliders.

———

Jace Fry, Chicago White Sox

“I started throwing a slider when I was about 14, but it was a different grip, and a different kind of pitch. It was more of a big, sweeping slider. After my second Tommy John surgery, I stopped throwing that one and started throwing the slider I have now. J.R. Perdew taught it to me. This would have been in 2016. I gained a little more velocity, and get sharper action.

“Going back to the beginning, I started throwing a curveball when I was 10, and that one I’ve been throwing my whole career. The slider was added once I got into high school. Growing up, there were a lot of good coaches in my area [Beaverton, Oregon]. My pitching coach was Jim Coffman, who is an area scout for Oakland. I went to him for four or five years, and he’s the one who taught me how to spin the ball correctly, and how to be on time. Read the rest of this entry »

When J.D. Martinez signed his five-year, $110 million contract with the Boston Red Sox two years ago, it included multiple opt-outs, the first of which came this offseason. Martinez could continue with his current deal, which will pay $62.5 million over the next three seasons, or take a $2.5 million buyout and become a free agent, likely with a qualifying offer attached. Martinez has elected to stay with the Red Sox under his current contract, as first reported by Jeff Passan and Jon Heyman.

Martinez has certainly lived up to his end of the bargain in its first two years. In 2018, he put up a six-win season thanks to 43 homers and a 170 wRC+ as the Red Sox won the World Series. While Martinez didn’t come close to matching those numbers in 2019, a 139 wRC+ and 3.2 WAR still made him one of the better hitters in the game. As he heads toward his age-32 season, Martinez seems to have found the comfort of a $62.5 million guarantee more inviting than what might have awaited him on the open market. The move is a bit surprising, but with the Red Sox unlikely to pursue him should he have opted out and the Yankees perhaps out of the mix with their focus on pitching, the number of suitors in the American League in need of a designated hitter, even one as good as Martinez, might not have been as great as needed to significantly improve his current contract.

Of next year’s potential contenders, consider that the Astros, Indians, Twins, A’s, and Angels already have designated hitters pretty much locked in. Which teams remain that might have made big bids on Martinez? The Rangers or the White Sox perhaps, though the former would have had to cut bait with Shin-Soo Choo while the latter’s decision to extend Jose Abreu a qualifying offer probably would have made Martinez a less good fit. The Royals and Tigers, as well as the non-Yankees and Red Sox teams in the AL East, are either ultra-frugal (the Rays) or unlikely to be competitive next season (the Orioles and Blue Jays). The Mariners didn’t seem like a great fit for the same reason as that AL East duo, and the National League was likely off limits given Martinez’s defensive issues. The risk of the market drying up was reasonably high, and with another opt-out after next season, a good 2020 would position Martinez to only have to beat two years and just under $40 million.

In our Top 50 Free Agents list, where Martinez ranked fifth assuming that he would opt out, Kiley McDaniel predicted the DH would garner three years and $77 million as a free agent, while the crowd predicted about $10 million more. Those are reasonable forecasts, but the upside seems to have ended up being worth less than the potential downside. This what Kiley had to say:

I prefer Grandal as a player since he’s younger and has a much greater margin for error, but am projecting Martinez for a bit more money since he would be opting out of three years and $62.5 million to hit free agency. With another opt out after 2020, he could also effectively opt in for a one year and $23.75 million before hitting the market again. He’ll only opt out if he had very good reason to believe that there was at least $70 million out there for him.

The decision shows Martinez’s confidence level. Meanwhile, Jay Jaffe, in his free agent blurb for Martinez, raised concerns about his level of play:

Not only did he not hit the ball quite as hard in 2019 — his exit velocity dipped from 93.0 to 91.3, while his xwOBA dropped from .421 to .401 — he did far less damage against four-seam fastballs 95 mph or higher; over the past three seasons, his xwOBA against such pitches has dropped from .505 to .473 to .351, while his xwOBA against all four-seamers has fallen from .535 to .476 to .419. Between the suggestion that his bat is slowing down as he moves into his mid-30s and his defensive liabilities (-15.1 UZR and -17 DRS over the past three seasons), he could find the market less hospitable than his last time around.

While rumors swirl about the future of Mookie Betts, Alex Speier notes that the Red Sox could try to see what the market holds for Martinez.

While Martinez is a good bet to over-perform the value of his contract, the downward trend noted by Jay, plus the potential dearth of suitors as noted above, could make finding a trading partner difficult. If the Red Sox are only interested in dumping the salary, they shouldn’t have to try too hard to find a taker, but if they are looking to add talent in the deal as well, it could prove difficult. (Why the Red Sox feel the need to cut salary and move talent when they have a contending team in a tough division is a reasonable question.)

With Martinez back in the fold, the Red Sox have a luxury tax payroll of roughly $236 million. Taxes will add another $15 million to Boston’s spend if they make no moves. Trading Martinez would save his $23 million salary, plus another $12 million in taxes. Meanwhile, trimming three wins from the roster without an increase elsewhere will reduce Boston’s chances of making the playoffs. The club will have to decide where its priorities lie.

J.D. Martinez is a good hitter who earned his $110 million contract and all the provisions that came with it. He’s elected not to exercise his opt-out this winter and, at least for now, will stay with the Red Sox under the terms of that deal. It’s proved beneficial to both parties, though so some self-imposed budgetary constraints might end up putting Boston in a difficult spot this offseason.

“What about Whitaker?” That question, which has been on my mind for nearly two decades, came to the fore two years ago when longtime Tigers teammates Jack Morris and Alan Trammell, both of whom spent 15 often contentious and sometimes agonizing years on the BBWAA’s Hall of Fame ballot, were finally elected to the Hall by the Modern Baseball Era Committee. With five All-Star selections, three Gold Gloves, and a central role on the Tigers’ 1984 championship squad, Lou Whitaker had accumulated similarly strong credentials to Trammell while forming the other half of the longest-running double play combo in major league history, one that did a fair bit to prop up Morris’ wobbly candidacy. Yet Whitaker, who ranks 13th in JAWS among second basemen, did not get his 15 years on the writers’ ballot because in his 2001 debut — the last Hall of Fame election cycle that I did not cover, but a pivotal one in many ways — he failed to receive at least 5% of the vote from the BBWAA and thus fell off the ballot. Like so many other candidates who have suffered such a fate, he had never received a second look from a small-committee process. Until now.

Whitaker is one of 10 candidates on the 2020 Modern Baseball Era Committee ballot, which was announced on Monday and which covers players and other figures who made their greatest contributions to the game during the 1970-87 timeframe. He’s not the only one emerging from limbo, either. This marks the first small-committee appearance for longtime Red Sox right fielder Dwight Evans, an eight-time Gold Glove winner who lasted just three cycles on the ballot (1997-99) and peaked at 10.4%, and for late Yankees catcher Thurman Munson, a former MVP who lasted 15 years on the ballot (1981-95) but only in his debut year broke double digits. Munson was virtually ignored on the 2003, ’05, and ’07 ballots voted upon by an expanded Veterans Committee consisting of all living Hall of Famers (and assorted stragglers), receiving just 12 votes out of a possible 243 across those three cycles.

The other seven candidates — former Major League Baseball Players Association executive director Marvin Miller, and ex-players Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, and Ted Simmons — have each been considered before, some of them multiple times via the 2018 Modern Baseball ballot and its predecessors, the ’11 and ’14 Expansion Era Committee ballots. Indeed, while this slate includes candidates long overdue for a bronze plaque in Cooperstown, a good chunk of ballot space is occupied by candidates who have repeatedly failed to gain much traction with the voters and who fare poorly via JAWS. The extent to which they have crowded out better candidates has been frustrating. Read the rest of this entry »