As Gunnar Henderson stepped to the plate in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 2 of the AL Wild Card Series on Wednesday night, his team down by a run and one out from elimination, it felt like something special was brewing. Late-inning tension, high stakes, one of the sport’s biggest stars: The postseason was peaking, and the young superstar held the Orioles’ fate in his hands, poised to deliver a signature moment. Unfortunately, he had to deal with Lucas Erceg’s changeup.

Lucas Erceg, Filthy 91mph Changeup. ?

Royals Advance. ? pic.twitter.com/kWKQQy0gzZ

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 2, 2024

I’ve followed Erceg all year, first from afar, mystified by the flamethrower that materialized out of nowhere in the Oakland bullpen, and then with a closer eye when he moved to Kansas City, watching him slip seamlessly into the fireman role in the Royals bullpen. His eye-popping fastball velocity caught my attention, but it’s the changeup stealing the show on the bright October stage.

As the table shows, Erceg’s velocity sits at the top of the scale. His four-seam fastball averages 99 mph. Again, he sits at 99 mph. But the results on it were just so-so: It graded out at 0.1 runs per 100 pitches by Baseball Savant’s run value calculations, neither helping nor really hurting him.

I think the pitch’s performance can be explained by its exceedingly “normal” shape. (Shout out to Leo Morgenstern.) Erceg throws his fastball from a 43-degree arm angle, which is smack dab in the tall part of the histogram among major league pitchers. From that bog-standard arm angle, his fastball gets roughly league-average induced vertical break.

Max Bay’s “dynamic dead zone” application projects how batters might perceive Erceg’s fastball relative to arm angle expectations. While the pitch drifts further to his arm-side than batters might initially expect, the vertical expectations are basically identical. The conventional shape of his four-seam fastball knocks it down a peg from a “stuff” perspective, taking it from plus-plus to maybe just plus.

But a high-velocity fastball doesn’t exist in a vacuum — it exists in the context of all in which it lives and what came before it. In other words, it impacts all of the other pitches in an arsenal. As Erceg rears back to throw, hitters have to keep that 99 mph in mind. And that expectation will certainly help a changeup play up.

The velocity separation between his four-seam fastball and changeup is solid — Erceg’s changeup averages 91 mph — but the horizontal movement of the pitch is its most distinct quality. It averaged 17.9 inches of horizontal movement this season; of the 165 pitchers who threw at least 150 changeups in the regular season, only three averaged more horizontal movement, putting Erceg in the 98th percentile.

Some of that arm-side fade is seam-shifted-wake effects; some of it is connected to Erceg’s motor preferences. (Mario Delgado Genzor wrote a great primer on motor preferences for Baseball Prospectus in January.) Erceg, as far as I can tell, is a pronator, which means that his natural throwing motion is conductive to changeups that run and fade to the arm side. Watch how he whips his forearm toward his body in the slow-motion part of this video:

Lucas Erceg, Wicked 91mph Changeup. 🤢

19 inches of run. pic.twitter.com/pUOkcCQ91Z

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 1, 2024

In these playoffs, at least, it’s been not just the movement that’s exceptional, but his pinpoint command of the pitch. On that 1-2 changeup to strike out Henderson, he buried it in that perfect location right below the knees, where it looks like a low fastball right up until the point that it isn’t.

What makes one changeup better than another is generally one of the more difficult questions to answer in pitching analysis. Royals ace Cole Ragans, for example, had one of the best changeups in baseball this season. Its effectiveness can’t really be explained by its shape — it doesn’t have much depth or movement differential from the fastball. But hitters, time and again, swing through the pitch, deceived by Ragans’ arm action or the way the trajectory mirrors his fastball or some other variable that is impossible to measure. Unlike a fastball, a changeup cannot be easily graded by a stuff model because it depends on how it plays against the expectations of the fastball.

What makes Erceg’s changeup good, however, seems pretty obvious to me. It goes fast and it moves a ton, almost like a lefty slider.

The changeup helps Erceg stand above other relievers with more limited arsenals. Against righties, he is mostly a sinker-slider guy, throwing his two-seamer in on the hands and then dropping his slider below the knees for whiffs. But against lefties, he relies on his four-seamer and changeup, neutralizing lethal lefties like Henderson. The results bear this out — Erceg faced roughly an equal amount of righties and lefties this season and held them both in check (.242 wOBA against righties, .279 wOBA against lefties).

There is a flip side to extreme pronation: It is hard to throw big, sweepy glove-side breaking balls. And yet Erceg’s slider has actually graded out as his best pitch by run value and whiff rate this season. As Erceg’s pitch movement plot shows, befitting his pronation bias, the slider doesn’t actually get any glove-side movement, coming awfully close to achieving a true “deathball” shape. Note the yellow dots representing the sliders he threw this season:

Even without glove-side movement, that shape can still be super effective. When Kumar Rocker made his debut, some analysts were throwing 80 grades on his “deathball” slider. Erceg’s slider is shaped just like Rocker’s, but Erceg throws his a couple miles an hour harder.

Erceg’s top-end velocity, platoon-neutral arsenal, and rapidly improving command (a 14.3% walk rate in 2023, an 11.9% walk rate when Michael Baumann wrote about him in May, and a 4.4% walk rate since that post) suggest to me that he could make a transition to starting pitching. Even if he drops two or even three miles per hour while stretching out to six-inning appearances, the fastball velocity will still be well above average. And if the Royals do decide to go that route, they could accrue significant benefits without risking too much. According to Roster Resource, they have him under team control through the rest of the 2020s, giving them plenty of opportunity to reverse course if it doesn’t work out.

Lucas Erceg, quality major league starter — it’d be quite an ending to a remarkable story. He was drafted by the Brewers as a third baseman in 2016, but after struggling to hit in the high minors before and after the pandemic, Erceg made the switch to pitching. Just 18 months ago, our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen wrote that “his mechanical inconsistency impacts his fastball location,” but noted that Erceg had a “chance to make a consistent big league impact if things click for him command-wise.” He is still so new to this, and so it is easy to imagine what could be.

But all of that is for the future. Right here, right now, in the heart of the playoffs, Erceg is the primary weapon out of a surprisingly solid Kansas City bullpen. And it’s the changeup, in my view, that is setting him apart.

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about distracting digital and between-pitch ads and ever-present win probability graphs on playoff broadcasts, the concept of controlling your own destiny, Orlando Arcia hugging Manny Machado, consternation about postseason small samples, Monday’s memorable Mets-Braves doubleheader, Carlos Mendoza’s Edwin Díaz decision, the most compelling postseason storylines, the early exits of the Orioles, Astros, and Braves, the futures of the Orioles and Tigers, MLB’s uniform fixes, Ken Kendrick’s comments about Jordan Montgomery, and the legacy of Pete Rose, plus a postscript (1:49:38).

Audio intro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”
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Just before the top of the ninth, with the Astros trailing the Tigers, 5-2, in the second game of the AL Wild Card series, something caught my eye. Several somethings, actually. Will Vest, who despite his more than 200 career appearances has just five saves, was taking a moment on the back of the mound to rub the baseball and breathe. The low third base camera found him, and it was hard to differentiate between the routine, meditative acts that Vest always uses to calm himself before an appearance, and the twitches and tics that might only be surfacing now, during the biggest moment of his career.

When Vest determined that the ball had been sufficiently rubbed, he put his glove back on and tossed the ball into it. He adjusted the left shoulder of his jersey, then his hat, then the right shoulder. He rubbed his fingertips against his thumb and his palm to disperse the sweat, and then rubbed his whole hand against his pants leg. He took shallow breaths as he gently worked his foot into the dirt in front of the rubber. He dumped the ball from his glove back into his pitching hand, then pressed it against his right hip in order to wedge it securely into a changeup grip. He brought his glove to his belly and briefly touched the back of his hand to his butt before nesting it in his glove. He came set, then lifted his left leg ever so slightly and came set again.

I didn’t catch all that the first time; my attention was focused on the background. Those several somethings were flickering in gold, setting off tiny lens flares all around the screen, but because Vest was the hero of the shot, they were out of focus and blurred. I puzzled over what they might be, wondering at first whether the Houston fans were shining their cell phone flashlights, holding some sort of vigil for the team’s flatlining season. It took me a moment to remember the King Tuck crowns. Read the rest of this entry »

Pete Rose died on Monday at his home in Las Vegas, closing the book on an 83-year life that included an incredible, record-setting 24-year major league career that was soon followed by three and a half decades of wandering in a desert of his own making. Handed down by commissioner Bart Giamatti in 1989, his permanent banishment from organized baseball for gambling — a prohibition that dates back to predecessor Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis’ effort to clean up the game in the wake of the 1919 “Black Sox” scandal — prevented the all-time leader in hits and games played from cementing his legacy with enshrinement in the Hall of Fame, and from working within baseball in any capacity.

Backed by a sizable contingent of admirers and apologists — and a smaller faction of truthers, a group that at one point included Bill James — Rose spent decades denying his transgressions, lying to the public, to baseball officials, and to himself. Deprived of the financial windfall that would have come with election to the Hall, “The Hit King” chose instead to try making a buck with anything he could put his name on. That included everything from a 2004 no. 1 best-selling autobiography, My Prison Without Bars, in which he admitted in print to gambling while managing the Reds (he had done so in pre-publication publicity as well) to autographed balls with the inscription “I’m sorry I bet on baseball.”

That assertion rang hollow given Rose’s apparent lack of contrition, his unwillingness to reconfigure his life as a precondition of his reinstatement by MLB, and his continued lies. Not until 2015 did he admit to gambling during his playing career, after ESPN’s Outside the Lines obtained copies of documents verifying his bets in 1986 while serving as the player-manager of the Reds. Elsewhere during the last decade of his life, a credible allegation of statutory rape dating to the 1970s, uncovered by prosecutor John Dowd during his investigation into Rose’s gambling, undermined his latter-day reinstatement effort while further chipping away at his public standing. It’s been a fall from grace without parallel, at least among baseball’s icons. Read the rest of this entry »

One year after they missed the playoffs in maddening fashion, the Padres are advancing to the National League Division Series after holding on to beat the Braves, 5-4, in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series on Wednesday night at Petco Park.

If Game 1 of this series was a beautiful ballet choreographed by San Diego starter Michael King, with a result that was never in doubt, then Game 2 was a far more uncertain thriller.

Atlanta struck first, when leadoff batter Michael Harris II smoked a first-pitch double down the right field line, advanced to third on a groundout, and scored on a sacrifice fly. Then the Padres came to bat against Braves lefty Max Fried, and things looked like they were about to get out of hand.

San Diego loaded the bases on back-to-back singles by Luis Arraez and Fernando Tatis Jr. and a Jurickson Profar chopper in front of the mound — Fried fielded it but his throw to second was late and everyone was safe — before Fried buckled down. He struck out Manny Machado, got Jackson Merrill to ground into a 3-2 fielder’s choice, and induced a grounder to short by Xander Bogaerts to get out of the inning without allowing a run.

This was when I thought Fried was going to have one of those postseason starts. Escaping a bases-loaded, no-out jam unscathed is one of the most difficult things to do as a pitcher, and dang it, Fried did it in the very first inning against San Diego’s 4-5-6 hitters. The adage is that you’ve got to get to great pitchers before they can settle in, and the Padres almost did that in the first. Additionally, Fried actually looked sharp despite those three baserunners; none of the balls in play left the infield. A great early narrative was brewing in San Diego, with momentum temporarily favoring the Braves.

There was one problem, though. Fried avoided trouble, but he couldn’t avoid the 99.8-mph liner that Tatis ripped off the pitcher’s hip/butt area.

Braves manager Brian Snitker told ESPN’s Buster Olney during the game that the area in which Fried got hit was bothering him, perhaps contributing to the pitcher’s unraveling. The Padres took a different tack in the second inning, when they lulled Fried into a false sense of security by making the first two outs in quick succession before laying the hammer down. Kyle Higashioka homered to tie it, and then all hell broke loose. Fried allowed three straight singles to load the bases before Machado lined a two-run double into the left field corner. Next up was Merrill, who tripled over Harris’ head in straightaway center to plate two more runs. In a 15-pitch span, the Padres went from trailing by one to leading by four.

MERRILL MADNESS!

The rookie comes through with a 2-run triple ? pic.twitter.com/GTdlyCLMbz

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

This game was far from over, though, especially because Padres starter Joe Musgrove left the game with two outs in the fourth with an injury of his own. Two slower-than-usual curveballs prompted an eagle-eyed Higashioka to visit his pitcher on the mound, followed by the pitching coach, manager, and trainer. Musgrove shook his arm out in obvious discomfort, and the injury update was indeed among the most ominous possible: right elbow tightness.

Turning to any bullpen for 16 outs is far from ideal, but it should be an easier pill to swallow for the Padres, who bolstered their relief corps in late July; just before the trade deadline, they acquired Tanner Scott and Bryan Hoeing from the Marlins and Jason Adam from the Rays. And following King’s seven-inning gem on Tuesday, everyone in San Diego’s bullpen was rested and ready to go. This game wasn’t exactly over, but the Padres certainly had the advantage, especially because Atlanta’s bullpen was running on fumes.

And yet, the Braves relievers were the ones who silenced the Padres, not the other way around. Dylan Lee, Daysbel Hernández, Pierce Johnson, and Joe Jiménez kept Atlanta in the game and set up an exciting finish as San Diego’s bullpen stumbled.

Hoeing replaced the injured Musgrove, got four key outs, and then gave up a 600-foot home run to Jorge Soler. (Please note that my distance estimate is indisputable, as Statcast didn’t register a distance or exit velocity for the ball.)

Jorge Soler hit this baseball to a different universe ? #Postseason pic.twitter.com/Ww7RB3r3bw

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

After the home run, Hoeing retired the next three Braves batters in the fifth before manager Mike Shildt called on Jeremiah Estrada to start the sixth. Estrada had a 28.2% strikeout rate this season, but he clearly didn’t have his best stuff on Wednesday. He allowed two singles, recorded two hard-hit outs, and got just three whiffs on 16 swings. Shildt replaced Estrada with the left-handed Scott to face lefty slugger Matt Olson with runners on the corners and two outs in a three-run game. The Atlanta cleanup hitter lined out to left field to end the inning. Scott pitched a scoreless seventh inning, but he was a bit shaky; only eight of his 24 pitches were in the strike zone.

Facing Adam after Braves shortstop Orlando Arcia singled to lead off the eighth, Harris jumped on the first pitch again, this time launching it over the center field wall for a two-run homer.

MONEY MIKE BRINGS THE @BRAVES WITHIN A RUN! pic.twitter.com/bQ7ACpECRJ

— MLB (@MLB) October 3, 2024

That blast energized the Braves dugout to a level unseen over the first 16 innings of the series; if you’re a believer in momentum, it certainly lay squarely in the visitor’s dugout at this point.

But if momentum exists at all, it sometimes exists to only be wiped away, to give a false sense of hope, to create wishes for a longer fall before the harshness of winter and the offseason sets in. Adam and closer Robert Suarez hunkered down to retire the next six Braves. After beating the Mets to clinch a playoff berth in the final regular-season game on Monday, Atlanta’s season ended on Wednesday.

Maybe swift disappointment was the only way it could end, emblematic of a trying season for Snitker’s ballclub. The Braves hoped that Spencer Strider’s elbow injury wouldn’t be too serious, only to learn that he’d need season-ending internal brace surgery. They hoped that Ronald Acuña Jr. would miss about a month or so, only to hear that he’d suffered the second torn ACL of his career and would be out for the season. They hoped Austin Riley would be back for the playoffs after breaking his hand in August, only to find out that he’d require more recovery time. And, most recently, they hoped Cy Young frontrunner Chris Sale would be on the mound for them this October, only to discover his back had flared up and he wouldn’t be able to pitch in the Wild Card Series.

All that hope will now turn to 2025, when the injured players are expected to return and bring the rejuvenated nucleus together once again. Hopefully, anyway.

As for the Padres, they’ll ride this series sweep to Los Angeles, where they’ll face off against their rival Dodgers in the best-of-five NLDS. San Diego outperformed the Dodgers in the season series, and even if Musgrove’s injury keeps him off the mound, the Padres’ pitchers are significantly healthier than the Dodgers’ staff. And because the Wild Card Series ended in just two games, San Diego can start ace Dylan Cease in Saturday’s Game 1. Then, the Padres would have Yu Darvish or King on short rest for Game 2, with the other one getting the nod in Tuesday’s Game 3.

One of the fun things about the new Wild Card format is that after the first day, every game is an elimination game. On Wednesday, all four games could have ended with one team heading home and one team punching its ticket for the next round. Three of them ended that way, and the one game left on the docket Thursday will end that way too, after the Brewers beat the Mets to even the National League Wild Card Series at one game apiece.

That kind of pressure is nothing new for the Mets, who spent pretty much the entire season dancing on a knife’s edge, but it’s certainly an unfamiliar feeling for the Brewers, whose playoff odds hadn’t dropped below 75% since May or below 90% since early August. “I’m going to be honest with you: It’s hard to be tired when you’re playing playoff baseball,” New York third baseman Mark Vientos said following Tuesday’s Game 1 win. “I had a bunch of energy. I know all of us did.” The Mets certainly didn’t come out flat on Wednesday night, but they did come out horizontal.

I’ll explain what I mean by that in a moment, but I shouldn’t bury the lede any longer: This was the Jackson Chourio Game. Or at least it was the first Jackson Chourio Game; we could be in for a lot more Jackson Chourio Games over the next decade or two. The 20-year-old, who entered the season as the no. 5 prospect in baseball, has already emerged as one of the game’s best young talents, and now he’s made it clear that he’s absolutely nails in the playoffs. In Wednesday’s NL Wild Card Series Game 2 (Jackson Chourio Game 1), the Brewers left fielder ripped two game-tying home runs in a 5-3 Milwaukee win. Read the rest of this entry »

BALTIMORE — You don’t achieve superstar status in baseball on speed alone. Evidence of Bobby Witt Jr.’s speed is all over his 10.4-WAR season — 31 stolen bases, 45 doubles, 11 triples — but that’s not why he’s a 10-win player. He’s a 10-win player because he posted a 168 wRC+ while playing elite defense at a premium position.

“That’s what makes him so unique is because he’s got the power,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said after the game. “He’s got the bat to ball skills, but he’s also got the speed that he gets infield hits, he can do a lot of different things. He is literally the total package when it comes to physical ability on the field.”

It was that speed that made the difference in Kansas City’s 2-1 win over the Orioles on Wednesday night. The second tense, low-scoring game in as many days extended Baltimore’s postseason losing streak to 10 games over 11 years. The Royals, now bound for the Division Series, have won nine of their past 10 postseason series, dating back 40 seasons. Read the rest of this entry »

The Detroit Tigers continue to ride their wave of jubilation into October.

The most surprising playoff team beat the Houston Astros 5–2 in Game 2 of the best-of-three Wild Card round on Wednesday to advance to the American League Division Series. Manager A.J. Hinch successfully navigated a bullpen game that included only two turbulent innings. Tyler Holton, who threw just two pitches in Detroit’s Game 1 victory, acted as a left-handed opener to ensure the hard-hitting heart of Houston’s order (Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez) would be forced to take an at-bat against a lefty.

After a clean first from Holton, sinkerballer Brenan Hanifee entered the game and narrowly escaped a scoreless second inning that featured two heart-stopping foul balls off the bat of Jason Heyward, either of which would’ve been a one- or two-run double with two outs. Hanifee gave the Tigers five outs, wrapping up his day against Jose Altuve before another lefty, this time Brant Hurter, entered to face Tucker and Alvarez. Hinch’s shrewd matchups and the Tigers’ pitching staff held Tucker hitless in the series.

Every bullpen game comes with a sort of Russian Roulette-ish risk that any one of the pitchers might have a bad day and cough up the game on their own. Hurter, who had a microscopic 3% walk rate in his 45 big league innings this year, looked for a minute like he might be that guy. He surrendered four baserunners and four hard-hit balls across 1 2/3 innings, exiting when Houston’s lineup turned over to Altuve with one out and two runners on in the bottom of the fifth.

At that moment, Hinch called on high-leverage reliever Beau Brieske, who closed Tuesday’s Game 1, to face Altuve and the heavy-hitting part of the Astros order. After getting both Altuve and Tucker out to escape extreme danger in the fifth, Brieske became the pitcher of record in the next half inning when Parker Meadows broke the scoreless tie with a solo home run off of Hunter Brown, who had been dealing to that point. Brown’s pitch to Meadows wasn’t bad; it was so far inside that most hitters would’ve at best been jammed by it, but somehow Meadows tucked his hands in, steered it fair, and doinked it off the right field foul pole.

Parker Meadows doinks one off the foul pole!@Tigers lead! #Postseason pic.twitter.com/JQh3XumoZa

— MLB (@MLB) October 2, 2024

This was the lone blemish in an otherwise stellar day for Brown, who allowed just four baserunners and struck out nine across 5 2/3 innings. Brieske, who as a former soft-tossing starter turned fire-breathing reliever looks like he might be a Liam Hendriks sequel of sorts, navigated the rest of the top half of Houston’s order in the bottom of the sixth.

Then for a couple innings all hell broke loose. Hinch called upon 22-year-old Jackson Jobe, one of baseball’s best pitching prospects, to work the bottom of the seventh. Jobe, who entered the game with four innings of Major League experience, nearly had a nuclear meltdown as he plunked Victor Caratini, narrowly avoided a pitch clock violation, couldn’t hear the PitchCom through the Houstonian crowd noise, and allowed consecutive singles to Jeremy Peña and Mauricio Dubón to load the bases. Astros manager Joe Espada then pulled his bench’s power-hitting lever by pinch hitting Jon Singleton for Chas McCormick with the bags full and nobody out. After Singleton took a very healthy rip at an early-count pitch, which he fouled back, he hit a well-struck grounder to a diving Spencer Torkelson whose on-target, one-hop throw to the plate was bobbled by the usually sure-handed catcher Jake Rogers.

SINGLETON TIES IT UP WITH A RBI SINGLE! 0 OUTS, BASES LOADED FOR THE ASTROS IN THE BOTTOM OF THE 7TH!

pic.twitter.com/2cxQAzuFGO

— TheSportsChronicle (@ATSportssss) October 2, 2024

Not only had the Astros scored, but the Tigers had failed to notch an out, and suddenly the top of Houston’s order was due to hit with the bases still juiced. Altuve hit a fairly shallow fly ball into foul territory along the right field line, where Matt Vierling caught it. The right fielder seemed surprised that Peña made an aggressive attempt to score, and his rather lackadaisical throw home was barely too late to snare Peña. Houston took a 2–1 lead.

The @Astros take the lead in the 7th! #Postseason pic.twitter.com/NpQepFzbKO

— MLB (@MLB) October 2, 2024

With the Tigers seemingly flailing and Tucker and Alvarez due up, Hinch removed Jobe (who seemed miffed at Vierling’s effort on the prior play as he left the field) in favor of sinker/slider lefty Sean Guenther, who got Tucker to ground into an inning-ending double play to keep the Tigers within single-swing striking distance.

To say the Tigers responded to the lead change in the eighth would be an understatement. Houston bullpen fixture Ryan Pressly came in to relieve Bryan Abreu, who bussed Brown’s table in the sixth and worked an easy seventh. Pressly quickly surrendered two singles, threw a wild pitch that allowed the tying run to score, and then walked Colt Keith. Espada then pulled the ripcord on Pressly and inserted closer Josh Hader. Hader walked Torkelson to load the bases and then Andy Ibáñez — pinch-hitting for Zach McKinstry — cleared them with a three-run double hooked into the left field corner.

Andy Ibanez CLEARS THE BASES

Astros 6 outs away from elimination ?

(via @MLB) pic.twitter.com/c3fZ95Jx5R

— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) October 2, 2024

The Tigers were back on top, 5–2, and they didn’t look back. Guenther worked the eighth and Will Vest, who ripped the sleeves off the bottom of Houston’s lineup across 1 2/3 dominant innings in Game 1, shut the door in the ninth to send the Tigers to the ALDS.

This postseason series win is the Tigers’ first since 2013, when the team was managed by Hall of Famer Jim Leyland and a carton of cigarettes. They have two off days before Saturday’s Game 1 tilt with the division rival Guardians in Cleveland. Right-hander Tanner Bibee, who has a 4.50 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP across 22 innings in his four starts against the Tigers this year, will start for the Guardians. Reese Olson, who was rostered for the Wild Card series but did not pitch, is the presumptive Game 1 starter for Detroit.

Houston’s season ends earlier than it has in any year since 2016, the last time the team failed to make the playoffs. The Astros had advanced to the ALCS in each of the past seven seasons, a borderline dynastic stretch for the franchise. Through that perspective, getting knocked out by the Tigers in the Wild Card Series is a major disappointment. However, at a certain point earlier this year, it would have been considered a miracle for this team to make the postseason at all. The Astros got here despite a glacial start to their season and several key injuries to their pitching staff. Those injuries may impact next year, too, as the timing of Cristian Javier’s and Luis Garcia’s Tommy John surgeries have them on pace for a mid- to late-season return rather than in early 2025.

Additionally, third baseman Alex Bregman, who was Houston’s best player in these two playoff games, hits free agency this offseason. With several highly paid Astros coming off the books (most notably Justin Verlander who didn’t pitch enough for his $40 million option to vest), the team has room to sign Bregman. That said, Tucker and Framber Valdez are both entering their third year of arbitration, and their futures with the club might be impacted by what happens with Bregman. Whatever happens, the Astros may not look the same for too much longer.