The early innings of Game 1 at SunTrust Park on Thursday evening — and for that matter, the late ones — served as a reminder that you can watch baseball all year long, and drill deep in analyzing and anticipating what might happen come the postseason, but sometimes, things simply unfold in ways that run counter to numbers and expectations. Depending upon where you sit, that’s the thrill and the agony of October baseball. For seven innings, the mistakes by a stellar Cardinals defense loomed large against the backdrop of a low-scoring affair, but then a late-inning slugfest produced nine of the game’s 13 runs against a pair of usually-solid bullpens. Ultimately, the Cardinals overcame a 3-1 deficit, scoring six unanswered runs in the final two frames and hanging on for a 7-6 victory.

In the regular season, the Cardinals made fewer errors than any other NL team (66), posted the league’s highest Ultimate Zone Rating (32.8), second-highest defensive efficiency rate (.706), and third-highest total of Defensive Runs Saved. That excellent work gave a pitching staff that produced a middling 4.27 FIP quite a leg up; the team’s 3.82 ERA ranked second in the league, and the 0.45 runs per nine gap between ERA and FIP was the majors’ largest. Without that defense — which Craig Edwards called the primary driver of their success just a few weeks ago — the Cardinals might well have wound up in the Wild Card game, or even outside the playoff picture instead of winning the division.

Meanwhile, a bullpen that lost closer Jordan Hicks to Tommy John surgery in late June wound up finding a silver lining in Carlos Martinez’s rotator cuff strain. As with last August, when he rehabbed his way back from a previous shoulder strain as a reliever, Martinez returned to the bullpen. He pitched very well if not dominant, posting a 3.05 ERA and 2.86 FIP while converting 24 of 27 save chances. He allowed just two home runs in 48.1 innings. On Thursday night, when it appeared the game was firmly in hand, he allowed two more and made things interesting. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller discuss the AL and NL wild card games (touching on Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Nick Anderson, Oliver Drake, Yandy Díaz, Avisaíl García, Josh Hader, Trent Grisham, and others), bid farewell to the Brewers and A’s, and analyze the Rays’ and Nationals’ division series prospects, then answer listener emails about the the Rays’ and Yankees’ long-term outlooks and how the regular season would work without playoffs, plus a Stat Blast about the Twins and WAR from foreign-born players and a postscript on Scooter Gennett and a promised home run.

Audio intro: Son Volt, "Wild Side"
Audio outro: Mattiel, "Long Division"

Link to Ben Clemens on Nick Anderson
Link to Levi on Profar
Link to Wilkerson catch
Link to Ben on the Braves
Link to order The MVP Machine

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The Nats have had a winning record in each of the last eight seasons and have reached the playoffs five times during that span, and yet it feels as though they’ve fallen short of expectations year after year. With the departure of Bryce Harper last offseason, a bullpen that’s mostly been bad, and a staff ace who has battled through a back injury for months, this could be the year they’re overlooked. Well, not by me or the three others at FanGraphs who picked them to win it all. But most people aren’t buying that they can take down a Dodgers team that might have more talent and depth than any team in baseball.

Here’s how every member of the Nationals’ 2019 NLDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (8)

• Ryan Zimmerman, 1B: Drafted First Round (4) 2005
• Stephen Strasburg, SP: Drafted First Round (1) 2009
• Michael A. Taylor, OF: Drafted Sixth Round 2009
• Wander Suero, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) February 2010
• Anthony Rendon, 3B: Drafted First Round (6) 2011
• Austin Voth, RP: Drafted Fifth Round 2013
• Victor Robles, OF: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) July 2013
• Juan Soto, OF: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) July 2015

Total WAR: 22.6

Signed in Free Agency (9)

• Max Scherzer, SP: January 2015 (DET) — Signed to seven-year, $210 million contract.
• Kurt Suzuki, C: November 2018 (ATL) — Signed to two-year, $10 million contract.
• Patrick Corbin, SP: December 2018 (ARI) — Signed to six-year, $140 million contract.
• Aníbal Sánchez, SP: December 2018 (ATL) — Signed to two-year, $19 million contract ($12 million club option for 2021).
• Matt Adams, 1B: December 2018 (STL) — Signed to one-year, $4 million contract ($4 million mutual option for 2020).
• Brian Dozier, 2B: January 2019 (LAD) — Signed to one-year, $9 million contract.
• Gerardo Parra, OF: May 2019 (SF) — Signed to minimum salary contract for remainder of season.
• Fernando Rodney, RP: June 2019 (OAK) — Signed to Minor League contract.
• Asdrúbal Cabrera, INF: August 2019 (TEX) — Signed to minimum salary contract for remainder of season.

Total WAR: 17.8

Acquired Via Trade (8)

• Trea Turner, SS: June 2015 (SDP) — Acquired in trade that sent Steven Souza Jr., Jake Bauers, René Rivera, Burch Smith, and Travis Ott to the Rays and Wil Myers, Gerardo Reyes, Jose Castillo, and Ryan Hanigan to the Padres.
• Adam Eaton, OF: December 2016 (CHW) — Acquired in trade that sent Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, and Dane Dunning to the White Sox.
• Sean Doolittle, RP: July 2017 (OAK) — Acquired in trade that sent Blake Treinen, Jesus Luzardo, and Sheldon Neuse to the Athletics.
• Howie Kendrick, INF: July 2017 (PHI) — Acquired in trade that sent McKenzie Mills and international bonus slot money to the Phillies.
• Yan Gomes, C: December 2018 (CLE) — Acquired in trade that sent Jefry Rodriguez, Daniel Johnson, and Andruw Monasterio to the Indians.
• Tanner Rainey, RP: December 2018 (CIN) — Acquired in trade that sent Tanner Roark to the Reds.
• Hunter Strickland, RP: July 2019 (SEA) — Acquired in trade that sent Aaron Fletcher, Taylor Guilbeau, and Elvis Alvarado to the Mariners.
• Daniel Hudson, RP: July 2019 (TOR) — Acquired in trade that sent Kyle Johnston to the Blue Jays.

Total WAR: 10.6

As should probably have been expected from a team with a ton of young talent and more help on the way that has made back-to-back World Series appearances, the Dodgers’ front office didn’t have to do much during the offseason. And they didn’t. Maybe that decision will be second-guessed if they get knocked out of the playoffs early, but they did win 106 games during the regular season and had all but wrapped up the division title by early June. Regardless of what happens, this team’s run of seven consecutive seasons with at least 91 wins and a playoff appearance isn’t likely to end here.

Here’s how every member of the Dodgers’ 2019 NLDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (13)

• Kenley Jansen, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Curacao) November 2004
• Clayton Kershaw, SP: Drafted First Round (7) 2006
• Pedro Báez, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) January 2007
• Joc Pederson, OF: Drafted 11th Round 2010
• Corey Seager, SS: Drafted First Round (18) 2012
• Ross Stripling, RP: Drafted Fifth Round 2012
• Julio Urías, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Mexico) August 2012
• Cody Bellinger, OF: Drafted Fourth Round 2013
• Walker Buehler, SP: Drafted First Round (24) 2015
• Matt Beaty, INF/OF: Drafted 12th Round 2015
• Gavin Lux, 2B: Drafted First Round (20) 2016
• Will Smith, C: Drafted First Round (32) 2016
• Dustin May, RP: Drafted Third Round 2016

Total WAR: 31.6 Read the rest of this entry »

Tampa Bay cruised past Oakland in the Wild Card game and enters the divisional round for the first time in six years. Their reward is a best-of-five date with the Houston Astros.

The Rays aren’t exactly limping into the postseason. Tampa Bay won 96 games in what passes for a competitive division these days, and they’re solid in all aspects of the game. In Houston though, they’re meeting a 107-win behemoth, a club that looks like one of the two or three best teams we’ve seen this century.

You may have noticed something weird in the “Edge” column of the table above. Ultimately, the yearly totals don’t adequately reflect how dominant Houston’s rotation is as currently constructed. After all, the Rays won’t be facing Collin McHugh or Corbin Martin or Brad Peacock out of the gate. Instead, they’ll get Justin Verlander (73 FIP-), Gerrit Cole (59 FIP-), and Zack Greinke (66 FIP-). No American League club can unleash a better rotation this October, and even if the Astros only let their horses gallop through the lineup twice each start, they’ll still have an advantage in that department. Read the rest of this entry »

Nelson Cruz was 25 years old when he made his major league debut in 2005. At the conclusion of the 2008 season, he was 28 years old and had a .743 OPS in 611 career plate appearances. By and large, he was little more than a fringe player with an uncertain future in the game, his third decade on planet earth looming on the horizon.

Since that time he’s been one of the game’s most prolific hitters. From 2009 through this past season, Cruz has slashed .280/.349/.537, with 379 home runs. No player in either league has gone deep more often over that stretch. And he’s showing no signs of slowing down. At age 39, the Fountain of Youth firmly within his grasp, Cruz just banged out 41 home runs, and logged a career-high 1.031 OPS, in his first season with the Minnesota Twins.

Cruz sat down to talk about his career path, and his overall approach to hitting, when the playoffs-bound Twins visited Fenway Park in early September.

———

David Laurila: Is hitting simple, or is it complicated?

Nelson Cruz: “When you do it good, it’s really simple. When you’re struggling, it’s really difficult. In my case, it’s about how my body feels. If I wake up and feel energized and fresh, I know I’m going to have a good day because my swing is going to be fluid. On days where my body isn’t rested enough, I feel like I have to force my swing to go through the zone.

“That said, you do the repetition every day, so even without thinking your swing goes through the same path — it does what you practice over and over. So it’s easy, but at the same time, it can get complicated on you.”

Laurila: Your career didn’t take off until you were in your late 20s. Was the impetus for that breakthrough more mental or physical in nature?

Cruz: “I think everything, but the mental part is the one… just to be able to have an approach every day, to have a routine to follow. You wake up and you know what you’re going to do to prepare for that game. You know what you’re going to be thinking at the plate — you’re going to have an idea of what to expect from the pitchers, and the situations, you’re going to face that day.”

Laurila: Were you an immature hitter early in your career? Read the rest of this entry »

The Braves’ playoff roster includes seven players who joined the team during the 2019 season and two others who were acquired near the end of Spring Training. That’s pretty significant turnover in a fairly short amount of time for a team that won the NL East in 2018 and had pretty much wrapped up their offseason by the end of November after signing a former AL MVP to play third base and bringing back a catcher who was a seven-time All-Star during his first stint in Atlanta.

When the team struggled out of the gate, it became clear that the roster might not be good enough to reach the postseason once again. While the four homegrown players on the playoff roster did a lot of the leg work, combining for 18.2 WAR, second-year general manager Alex Anthopoulos made a lot of good moves that helped turn things around and has the team once again playing October baseball after a 97-win season.

Here’s how every member of the Braves’ 2019 NLDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (4)

• Freddie Freeman, 1B: Drafted Second Round 2007
• Ozzie Albies, 2B: Amateur Free Agent (Curacao) July 2013
• Ronald Acuña Jr., OF: Amateur Free Agent (Venezuela) July 2014
• Mike Soroka, SP: Drafted First Round (28) 2015

Total WAR: 18.2

Signed in Free Agency (9)

• Nick Markakis, OF: December 2014 (BAL) — Signed to four-year, $44 million contract; re-signed to one-year contract extension (2020 club option) in January.
• Tyler Flowers, C: December 2015 (CHW) — Signed to two-year, $5.3 million contract (included $4 million club option in 2018).
• Brian McCann, C: November 2018 (HOU) — Signed to one-year, $2 million contract.
• Josh Donaldson, 3B: November 2018 (CLE) — Signed to one-year, $23 million contract.
• Rafael Ortega, OF: January 2019 (MIA) — Signed to Minor League contract.
• Josh Tomlin, RP: March 2019 (MIL) — Signed to Minor League contract ($1.25 million salary).
• Dallas Keuchel, SP: June 2019 (HOU) — Signed to one-year, $21.21 million contract (prorated rate is $13 million).
• Adeiny Hechavarría, INF: August 2019 (NYM) — Signed to minimum salary contract for remainder of season.
• Francisco Cervelli, C/1B: August 2019 (PIT) — Signed to minimum salary contract for remainder of season.

Total WAR: 10.6

Acquired Via Trade (11)

• Max Fried, SP: December 2014 (SDP) — Acquired in trade that sent Justin Upton and Aaron Northcraft to the Padres.
• Mike Foltynewicz, SP: January 2015 (HOU) — Acquired in trade that sent Evan Gattis and James Hoyt to the Astros.
• Sean Newcomb, RP: November 2015 (LAA) — Acquired in trade that sent Andrelton Simmons and Jose Briceno to the Angels.
• Dansby Swanson, SS: December 2015 (ARI) — Acquired in trade that sent Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier to the Diamondbacks.
• Luke Jackson, RP: December 2016 (TEX) — Acquired in trade that sent Tyrell Jenkins and Brady M. Feigl to the Rangers.
• Adam Duvall, OF: July 2018 (CIN) — Acquired in trade that sent Lucas Sims, Preston Tucker, and Matt Wisler to the Reds.
• Darren O’Day, RP: July 2018 (BAL) — Acquired in trade that sent Evan Phillips, Bruce Zimmermann, Brett Cumberland, JC Encarnacion, and international bonus slot money to the Orioles.
• Matt Joyce, OF: March 2019 (SFG) — Acquired in trade that sent cash considerations to the Giants.
• Chris Martin, RP: July 2019 (TEX) — Acquired in trade that sent Kolby Allard to the Rangers.
• Mark Melancon, RP: July 2019 (SFG) — Acquired in trade that sent Dan Winkler and Tristan Beck to the Giants.
• Shane Greene, RP: July 2019 (DET) — Acquired in trade that sent Travis Demeritte and Joey Wentz to the Tigers.

Total WAR: 10.3

Acquired Off Waivers (1)

• Billy Hamilton, OF: August 2019 (KCR)

Total WAR: 0.1

Not only is the Cardinals’ division series roster filled with homegrown talent, the number three and four hitters in their lineup were acquired in successive offseasons for a total of seven prospects who all began their professional careers with the organization. The ability to develop talent in their farm system is a big reason why St. Louis has had 12 consecutive winning seasons, although they’re making their first playoff appearance since 2015.

Here’s how every member of the Cardinals’ 2019 NLDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (12)

• Yadier Molina, C: Drafted Fourth Round 2000
• Matt Carpenter, 3B: Drafted 13th Round 2009
• Carlos Martinez, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) April 2010
• Kolten Wong, 2B: Drafted First Round (22) 2011
• Jack Flaherty, SP: Drafted First Round (34) 2014
• Daniel Ponce de Leon, RP: Drafted Ninth Round 2014
• Harrison Bader, CF: Drafted Third Round 2015
• Paul DeJong, SS: Drafted Fourth Round 2015
• Ryan Helsley, RP: Drafted Fifth Round 2015
• Dakota Hudson, SP: Drafted First Round (34) 2016
• Tommy Edman, INF/OF: Drafted Sixth Round 2016
• Randy Arozarena, OF: Amateur Free Agent (Cuba) July 2016

Total WAR: 23.0

Signed in Free Agency (4)

• Dexter Fowler, OF: December 2016 (CHC) — Signed to five-year, $82.5 million contract.
• Miles Mikolas, SP: December 2017 (Japan) — Signed to two-year, $15.5 million contract; signed four-year contract extension (2020-23) in February.
• Andrew Miller, RP: December 2018 (CLE) — Signed to two-year, $25 million contract ($12 million club option for 2021).
• Matt Wieters, C: February 2019 (WSN) — Signed to Minor League contract ($1.5 million salary).

Total WAR: 3.3

Acquired Via Trade (7)

• Adam Wainwright, SP: December 2003 (ATL) — Acquired in trade that sent J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero to the Braves.
• Jose Martinez, OF: May 2016 (KCR) — Acquired in trade that sent cash considerations to the Royals.
• Marcell Ozuna, OF: December 2017 (MIA) — Acquired in trade that sent Sandy Alcantara, Zac Gallen, Magneuris Sierra, and Daniel Castano to the Marlins.
• Yairo Muñoz, INF/OF: December 2017 (OAK) — Acquired in trade that sent Stephen Piscotty to the Athletics.
• Giovanny Gallegos, RP: July 2018 (NYY) — Acquired in trade that sent Luke Voit and international bonus slot money to the Yankees.
• Genesis Cabrera, RP: July 2018 (TBR) — Acquired in trade that sent Tommy Pham and international bonus slot money to the Rays.
• Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: December 2018 (ARI) — Acquired in trade that sent Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andy Young, and 2019 competitive balance round B pick to the Diamondbacks.

Total WAR: 9.5

Acquired Off Waivers (1)

• Tyler Webb, RP: June 2018 (SDP)

Total WAR: 0.1

Acquired Via Rule 5 Draft Triple-A Phase (1)

• John Brebbia, RP: December 2015 (ARI)

Total WAR: 1.3