Yankees Stave Off Elimination and Send ALCS Back to Houston

NEW YORK — The Yankees may not win this year’s American League Championship Series. They may not become the 14th team to rally from a three-games-to-one deficit in a best-of seven, or the eighth to do so by finishing the job on the road — particularly against an Astros team with the majors’ best record and an historically powerful offense. But in the wake of a demoralizing Game 4 loss full of missed opportunities, sloppy defense, and the sudden end of CC Sabathia’s career, they met manager Aaron Boone’s immediate goal of sending the series back to Minute Maid Park with a 4-1 victory that featured strong work by starter James Paxton and a four-run first inning against Justin Verlander, featuring a pair of homers by DJ LeMahieu and Aaron Hicks.

“He’s got to go out and pitch well and set the tone for us,” Boone said of Paxton prior to the game, “because we’ve got to get on that plane and go back to Houston.”

The tone early on Friday evening was all too reminiscent of Thursday’s late-inning sloppiness. Second baseman Gleyber Torres, who made errors in each of the final two innings of Game 4, mishandled leadoff hitter George Springer‘s grounder, which had slipped under Paxton’s glove, though the ball was scored a single. Springer then took second on a passed ball by Gary Sánchez, advanced to third on Jose Altuve’s grounder, and scored on a wild pitch. It was an all-too-familiar story for Paxton, whose 29 first-inning runs allowed in 29 starts tied for the major league lead.

That was all the Astros would get from him, however. Both Alex Bregman and Yuli Gurriel scorched line drives to the outfield —  98.4 mph for the former to left, with Brett Gardner chasing it down, and 96.8 for the latter to center, but right at Hicks — and so Paxton escaped by allowing just one run. He’d failed to get ahead of any of the five batters he faced, gotten just one swinging strike on a total of 23 pitches, and his defense looked anything but sharp. With the Yankees desperately needing length given their plans for an all-bullpen Game 6, it was not an encouraging beginning. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1445: CC Me

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about their upcoming live event, review ALCS Game 4, the Yankees’ precarious position, and the career and last appearance of CC Sabathia, then discuss the significance of MLB both allowing investment funds to take minority stakes in multiple clubs and proposing to downsize and reorganize the minor leagues before wrapping up by answering listener emails about whether the Cardinals’ season was a success and whether it would make sense to change the playoff structure to make repeat appearances less common.

Audio intro: Uncle Tupelo, "Cold Shoulder"
Audio outro: Golden Earrings, "Cut ‘Em Down to Size"

Link to info on November 21 live event
Link to Ben on ALCS Game 4
Link to video of Girardi on Sabathia
Link to Ben on mid-plate-appearance pitching changes
Link to report about investment funds
Link to Ben Clemens on investment funds
Link to report about the downsizing of Minor League Baseball
Link to Travis on Minor League Baseball and player development
Link to story on Minor League Baseball attendance
Link to results of poll on home run reduction
Link to Jon Roegele thread on strike zone size
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Astros vs. Yankees ALCS Game 5 Chat

6:36
Meg Rowley: Hi! Craig Edwards, Eric Longenhagen, and I will be your chatters for Game 5. Craig and Eric for the duration, me until about 6:15 PT or so.  We’ll get started closer to first pitch, but until then, so good reading you may have missed.

6:36
6:36
Meg Rowley: Jake Mailhot on Yordan Alvarez’s October slump: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-to-neutralize-a-rookie-sensation/

6:37
Meg Rowley: Craig on all the many innings Justin Verlander has thrown: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/justin-verlanders-innings-could-fill-a-boa…

6:37
Meg Rowley: Devan Fink on Ottavino, and how the Yankees still need him: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-yankees-still-need-adam-ottavino/

6:37
Meg Rowley: And Ben Clemens on yesterday’s Game 4: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-astros-edge-toward-the-world-series/

Read the rest of this entry »


Justin Verlander’s Innings Could Fill a Boat

As Justin Verlander takes the mound tonight, he’ll do so with 240.1 innings pitched this season between regular season and playoffs. In the last three seasons, Verlander’s 2019 campaign is just the second to go at least 240 innings; his 242.2 inning in 2017 is the other. Since 2011, there have been 26 seasons during which pitchers have thrown at least 240 innings. Verlander accounts for five of them. If he makes a decent start tonight and Houston advances to the World Series, he’ll likely be the first pitcher to go over 250 innings in a season since 2014, when James Shields, Madison Bumgarner, and David Price all eclipsed that mark. Verlander’s quality deservedly receives the bulk of the attention when analyzing the ace, but the quantity deserves accolades as well.

If we look a single player’s career and then compare his totals to his peers only during those seasons when he was active, it is bound to be misleading, as it cuts off the careers of others at the beginning and end where fuller comparisons are better made. For example, Justin Verlander’s 72 WAR is first among all pitchers since 2006 when he pitched his first full season. That Verlander was the best pitcher in baseball over that time is a defensible argument, but it should be noted that Clayton Kershaw is just seven wins behind Verlander and five years younger. If we looked at the leaders from 2006-2026, Verlander might not be first. Similarly, if we go back to 1996, we see Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez jump ahead of Verlander. If we go back to 1986, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux are more than 40 wins ahead of him, with Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, and Kevin Brown also in possession of a higher WAR. This isn’t to take away anything from Verlander — the other pitchers discussed are all great. But it is a reminder that selectively choosing seasons can skew the results. Read the rest of this entry »


How to Neutralize a Rookie Sensation

Yordan Alvarez is the favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award. He completely demolished opposing pitching this year, first in Triple-A (170 wRC+), then in the majors (178 wRC+) after being called up in early June. Between the two levels, he launched 50 home runs while showing elite plate discipline. But this October, he’s been a non-factor for the Astros.

He showed some life against the Rays, going 6-for-19 with three doubles in that five game series. But against the Yankees, he’s been completely shut down. He collected his first hit of the Championship Series last night, a broken bat single off Chad Green. He’s reached base just three other times against Yankees pitching, drawing two walks and reaching on an error. Overall, he’s slashing just .206/.270/.294 in nine postseason games.

What’s even more concerning is his elevated strikeout rate. He struck out just over a quarter of the time he came to the plate during the regular season. That’s jumped up to 37.8% in the postseason. During the regular season, Alvarez never had a nine-game stretch as poor as this one.

There was a nine-game stretch ending on September 6 during which he posted a strikeout rate of 36.6%. But he also launched three home runs over that span, something he hasn’t been able to do during the postseason. Obviously small sample caveats apply here, but it appears as though both the Rays and the Yankees have found similar approaches to neutralizing the 22-year-old rookie. Read the rest of this entry »


CC Sabathia’s Storied Career Reaches a Rough Ending

The Yankees’ 8-3 loss in Game 4 of the ALCS did not eliminate them, but between their missed opportunities early (stranding five runners in scoring position in the first five innings) and their sloppiness late (four errors over the final four innings), the game had an air of finality about it. Nowhere was that more true than in the case of CC Sabathia, who departed due to a shoulder injury in what will stand as the final appearance of a 19-year major league career that may well be capstoned by a plaque in Cooperstown.

On Friday morning, the Yankees announced that Sabathia had experienced a subluxation of his shoulder joint and replaced him on the roster with righty Ben Heller. The move means that he would not be allowed to be reactivated for the World Series, almost certainly a moot point given the condition of his shoulder, to say nothing of the Yankees’ precarious position. Sabathia, who appeared to be in good spirits during a pregame press conference on Friday despite pain that he described as “pretty intense,” said that he would “maybe get an MRI after we get back from Houston” and that he doesn’t know yet whether he will need surgery.

Dropped into a difficult situation in his second relief appearance of the series and just the fourth of his career — runners on second and third with no outs in the top of the eighth, with the Yankees already down 6-3 — Sabathia was victimized by the first of Gleyber Torres‘ two errors when Yordan Alvarez’s chopper deflected off the second baseman’s right hand as he positioned himself to throw home; Alex Bregman scored on the play, and Alvarez was safe at first. After retiring Carlos Correa on a soft liner to right field, one in which Aaron Judge nearly doubled Yuli Gurriel off second base, Sabathia hit Robinson Chirinos on the left elbow with a pitch, loading the bases. He got Aledmys Diaz to pop up to shallow right, keeping Gurriel from scoring, but after missing inside on a 1-1 cutter to George Springer, Sabathia grimaced, and both manager Aaron Boone and head athletic trainer Steve Donohue came to the mound.

According to Sabathia, his shoulder popped during his last pitch to Diaz: “I just felt like when I released the ball, my shoulder kind of went with it.” In other words, he pitched through a partial separation when he faced Springer, throwing a first-pitch cutter that reached 91.2 mph.

After throwing one warm-up pitch to check if he could continue, Sabathia told Boone and Donohue, “I’m done,” shook his head, and then departed to a heartfelt ovation from the Yankee Stadium crowd as well as both dugouts. The FS1 broadcast showed both Springer and Gerrit Cole paying their respects, then a slump-shouldered Sabathia covering his face with his glove, understandably overcome with emotion but — and maybe this is just a scribe projecting — ever so slightly tipping his cap to the crowd even as he did. It wasn’t easy to watch, and you’re by no means obligated to, but here’s the whole scene: Read the rest of this entry »


The Yankees Still Need Adam Ottavino

Last offseason, the Yankees gave Adam Ottavino a three-year, $27 million contract, a move that added yet another high octane arm to their already-loaded bullpen. And unlike some reliever contracts, it has worked out quite well thus far.

Ottavino had a solid first year in New York. His 1.90 ERA was a career-best, as was his 2.5 RA9-WAR. His 3.44 FIP (74 FIP-) and 4.32 xFIP (94 xFIP-) suggested that he was probably quite a bit worse than his ERA indicated, due to a year-over-year strikeout rate that fell from 36% to 31% and a walk rate that ballooned from 12% to 14%. So, yes, Ottavino wasn’t nearly as dominant in 2019 as he was the year before, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t useful in the Big Apple. His 1.3 WAR ranked 22nd among all relievers and second on the team.

We could dig deeper into Ottavino’s 2019 campaign if we so desired, but that’s not why he’s relevant right now. The 66 and third innings he pitched during the regular season were important, but they are not nearly as meaningful as the two and one-third innings he’s pitched so far this postseason. Ottavino has faced just 18 hitters this October, but the Yankees have already been ridiculed for “making a big mistake” in sticking with him.

Perhaps this is a fair argument; Ottavino’s October results certainly reflect the rationale behind the criticism. Of the 18 batters he has faced, seven of them have recorded hits, three more have walked, and just seven have made outs. The slash line against Ottavino is ugly: .467/.556/.800.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: Ben Clemens Isn’t Giving You Investment Advice

Episode 872

Ben Clemens makes an appearance to discuss the implications of reported changes to MLB’s ownership rules that would make it easier for investment funds to buy minority stakes in teams, before we shift our attention to the postseason. We contemplate the changed baseball and how it has affected our viewing experience, what we have enjoyed most from the playoffs so far, the Astros’ slumping offense, and a bevy of intentional walks.

Ben on changes to the MLB ownership rules
Ben on intentional walks, Parts One and Two
Ben on the Astros’ offensive woes
Jay Jaffe on the changed postseason baseball
Rob Arthur on the changed postseason baseball, Parts One and Two

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @megrowler on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 44 min play time.)


Job Posting: Brewers Baseball Research and Development Analyst and Intern

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Baseball Research and Development Analyst

Location: Milwaukee, WI

Summary:
The Analyst – Baseball Research & Development will deliver research and tools to improve decision making across Baseball Operations. The position requires a person who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to non-technical people. Being passionate about using data, analysis and technology to improve decision making processes is also a key differentiator. Residence in Milwaukee is required.

Responsibilities:
Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

  • Evaluate existing data sources and build predictive or explanatory models to aid in a variety of player acquisition, player development and gameplay decisions.
  • Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making.
  • Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to the front office, player development staff, and other baseball employees – including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers.
  • Continually survey latest analytical methods and advancements in baseball and sports research to apply cutting-edge methods and data to problems.
  • Understand current decision processes and information systems and offer enhancements and improvements.
  • Answer ad-hoc requests for reports, visualizations and research projects.

Qualifications:
To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

  • Understanding of statistics and modeling techniques, including probability, linear regression and logistic regression.
  • Proficiency with an analytical programming language required, R or Python preferred.
  • Proficiency with SQL and SQL databases required, Microsoft SQL or PostgreSQL preferred.

Education and/or Experience:
Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) or equivalent experience is required. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree is desirable.

Other Skills and Abilities:
The individual must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary. Occasional travel to affiliates or conferences may be required.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

Position: Baseball Research and Development Intern

Location: Milwaukee, WI

Summary:
The Intern – Baseball Research & Development will design and execute a strategic research project with the assistance of experienced mentors. The internship program is designed to give the candidate real-world experience in a Baseball Research & Development department, including exposure to development processes and best practices. Residence in Milwaukee is required.

Responsibilities:
Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.

  • Work closely with R&D mentor to define and outline a meaningful project.
  • Design approach to address chosen topics leveraging existing and new data sources to build predictive or explanatory models.
  • Develop and propose project solutions using various coding languages and/or database queries that adhere to coding best practices.
  • Collaborate with other interns, R&D team members and other front office staff on various projects and initiatives.
  • Participate in code reviews with members of the R&D staff as part of a robust development process.
  • Create reports, visualizations and other documentation explaining the project.

  • Present project results to members of the Baseball Operations Department.
  • Answer ad-hoc requests for reports, visualizations and research projects.

Qualifications:
To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.

  • Understanding of statistics and modeling techniques, including probability, linear regression and logistic regression.
  • Demonstrated experience with applied research required. Can be through a previous job role, schoolwork, or independent research and does not need to be baseball-related.
  • Proficiency with an analytical programming language required, R or Python preferred.
  • Proficiency with SQL and SQL databases required, Microsoft SQL or PostgreSQL preferred.
  • Deep knowledge of baseball rules, gameplay and player acquisition approaches.

Education and/or Experience:
Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) or current pursuit of Bachelor’s degree in a technical or scientific field, or equivalent experience is required. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree is desirable.

Other Skills and Abilities:
The individual must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary. Travel to affiliates may be possible.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application that can be found here.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Milwaukee Brewers.


The Astros Edge Toward the World Series

The Astros beat the Yankees 8-3 last night, moving within a win of their second World Series berth in three years, but the night didn’t have to turn out that way. The victory was comprehensive — Houston out-homered the Yankees, had more non-homer hits, struck out less than half as often, and committed three fewer errors. Five runs is an odd lead, but it’s also the first truly safe lead in baseball. The Astros could have spotted the Yankees a grand slam before the game and still come out ahead.

But baseball doesn’t really work that way. If the Yankees had started the game ahead 4-0, things would have gone differently. Batters wouldn’t have gotten the same pitches, different Yankees relievers would have thrown, A.J. Hinch would have been forced to manage differently; the things that happened last night weren’t deterministic, destined to play out in the same order regardless of circumstance.

So with that in mind, let’s look at a few places where the Yankees could have changed history. They might have lost anyway, and they might have won — but they had their chances to do something, and simply didn’t make the most of them.

Gary Sánchez Bats in the First
Gary Sánchez bats seventh for the Yankees, so when he appears in the first inning, something has gone very right. Not only that, but he came up with the bases loaded; Zack Greinke looked shaky, with three walks on the night already, and Sánchez had a chance to deliver a decisive blow early. Read the rest of this entry »