Ranking the Prospects Traded During the 2021 Deadline
What a ride this year’s deadline was. All told, we had 75 prospects move in the last month. They are ranked below, with brief scouting reports written by me and Kevin Goldstein. Most of the deals these prospects were a part of were analyzed at length on this site. An index of those pieces can be found here, or by clicking the hyperlink in the “Trade” column below. I’ve moved all of the players listed here to their new orgs over on The Board, so you can click through to see where they rank among their new teammates. Our farm rankings, which now update live, also reflect these changes, so you can see where teams’ systems stack up post-deadline.
A couple of quick notes before I get to the rankings. We’ve included a few post-prospect players here (those marked in blue) so you can get an idea of where we value them now as opposed to where we had them at their prospect peak. Those players, as well as the Compensatory pick the Rockies will receive after they extend Trevor Story a qualifying offer and he signs elsewhere, are highlighted below. We had closer to 40 prospects (and 23 Players to be Named Later) traded last year, with the PTBNL number inflated by 2020’s COVID-related transaction rules. The backfields are not well-represented here, with just four prospects who have yet to play in full-season ball. Two of those are currently in the DSL and have no official domestic pro experience, though Alberto Ciprian has played stateside for instructs/extended spring training. Now on to the rankings.
2021 Trade Deadline Prospects
| FV | Rank | Name | Position | Age | Team | From | Trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 1 | Josiah Gray | SP | 23.6 | WSN | LAD | Scherzer | Gray is a mid-rotation lock with late-bloomer traits. |
| 55 | 2 | Nick Madrigal | 2B | 24.4 | CHC | CHW | Kimbrel | Madrigal is one of the best contact hitters in baseball, the rare safe .300 hitter, but it comes with few walks and very little power. |
| 50 | 3 | Keibert Ruiz | C | 23.0 | WSN | LAD | Scherzer | Ruiz’s massive power surge in 2021 has stabilized his prospect status as a future above-average everyday catcher. |
| 50 | 4 | Simeon Woods Richardson | SP | 20.8 | MIN | TOR | Berríos | SWR has a four-pitch mix, plus changeup, deception and command. |
| 50 | 5 | Austin Martin | LF | 22.4 | MIN | TOR | Berríos | Martin is an on-base machine with contact skills, but questions about his power and defensive home persist. |
| 50 | 6 | Spencer Howard | SP | 25.0 | TEX | PHI | Gibson/Kennedy | Howard’s peak stuff puts him ahead of SWR here, but injuries and inconsistency have plagued his early career. |
| 50 | 7 | Kevin Alcantara | CF | 19.1 | CHC | NYY | Rizzo | Alcantara is an ultra-projectable outfielder with elite power projection and uncommon athleticism for his size. |
| 50 | 8 | Ezequiel Duran | 2B | 22.2 | TEX | NYY | Gallo | Duran is a plus power second baseman whose value is derived mostly from the bat. |
| 45+ | 9 | Abraham Toro | 3B | 24.6 | SEA | HOU | K. Graveman | A long-time favorite of data-driven teams, Toro will finally get consistent at-bats in the big leagues. |
| 45 | 10 | Josh Smith | 2B | 24.0 | TEX | NYY | Gallo | Smith is a smaller guy without eye-popping tools, but there are no weaknesses in his game. He has elite baseball feel and instincts. |
| 45 | 11 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 19.4 | CHC | NYM | Báez | PCA is a plus-plus defensive center fielder with a decent bat and average power. The dream here is being the next Jackie Bradley Jr. |
| 45 | 12 | Drew Strotman | SP | 24.9 | MIN | TBR | N. Cruz | Though it didn’t happen immediately, Strotman’s stuff rebounded after TJ and he has a new, plus cutter. He’s a likely big league starter. |
| 45 | 13 | Reese Olson | SP | 22.0 | DET | MIL | D. Norris | Olson has four pitches and is into the mid-90s with a plus breaking ball, though there’s relief risk. He’s a multi-inning weapon if he can’t start. |
| 45 | 14 | Hans Crouse | MIRP | 22.9 | PHI | TEX | Howard/Kennedy | Crouse has seen a bit of a velo dip this year, but his pitchability has improved, the slider remains plus, and he has a new cutter. There’s considerable reliever risk here. |
| 45 | 15 | Alex Jackson | C | 25.6 | MIA | ATL | A. Duvall | Jackson is a frustrating talent who has yet to make contact in the big leagues. He has big, big power and will get a chance in Miami. |
| 45 | 16 | Alexander Vizcaíno | SIRP | 24.2 | CHC | NYY | Rizzo | Vizcaíno is a slam dunk late-inning relief prospect. |
| 45 | 17 | Alexander Canario | RF | 21.2 | CHC | SFG | Bryant | Canario is a tooled out corner outfielder who hasn’t put it together in games. He’s a high risk/high upside type. |
| 45 | 18 | Joe Ryan | MIRP | 25.2 | MIN | TBR | N. Cruz | Ryan commands his fastball at the letters, where it dominates thanks to its angle and ride. |
| 40+ | 19 | Aldo Ramirez | SP | 20.2 | WSN | BOS | Schwarber | Ramirez is an ultra-athletic young righty with an advanced changeup and command. He’s risky due to his age/occupation, and grades out like a second round JUCO arm. |
| 40+ | 20 | Compensatory Pick | ~ No. 31 | 2022 | COL | MLB | T. Story | Players available where this comp pick is likely to fall in the draft are often near the 45/40+ FV line. |
| 40+ | 21 | Anderson Espinoza | MIRP | 23.4 | CHC | SDP | Marisnick | The former top prospect is back after two TJs. Espinoza is sitting 93-95 and flashes a plus breaker/change. |
| 40+ | 22 | Greg Deichmann | RF | 26.2 | CHC | OAK | A. Chafin | Deichmann is an older, future fourth outfielder who has failed to build on a 2019 power surge. |
| 40+ | 23 | Bryce Ball | 1B | 23.1 | CHC | ATL | J. Pederson | Ball is a gigantic dude with gigantic power and big questions as to his ability to get to it. |
| 40+ | 24 | Caleb Kilian | SP | 24.2 | CHC | SFG | Bryant | Kilian is a command-over-stuff guy who locates four average pitches. Back-end starter is the dream. |
| 40+ | 25 | Gerardo Carrillo | SIRP | 22.9 | WSN | LAD | Scherzer | Carrillo is a high-octane relief prospect with upper-90s gas, a bevy of pitches, and a violent delivery. |
| 40+ | 26 | Daniel Palencia | SP | 21.5 | CHC | OAK | A. Chafin | Palencia throws in the upper-90s and his curveball flashes. He’s barely pitched in pro ball. |
| 40+ | 27 | Drew Millas | C | 23.5 | WSN | OAK | Gomes/Harrison | Millas is a plus defender with a plus arm and some power, but big holes in the swing lead to an elevated K rate. |
| 40+ | 28 | Diego Castillo | 2B | 23.8 | PIT | NYY | C. Holmes | A foundation of contact skills combined with late-arriving physicality has Castillo looking like a shift-enabled infield piece. |
| 40 | 29 | Konnor Pilkington | SP | 23.9 | CLE | CHW | C. Hernandez | Pilkington is a pitch-data fave for his excellent fastball shape. He profiles for many as a future reliever. |
| 40 | 30 | Bowden Francis | SP | 25.3 | TOR | MIL | R. Tellez | A new slider has become the best of Francis’ four pitches. He’s a back-end starter lock. |
| 40 | 31 | Tucupita Marcano | 2B | 21.9 | PIT | SDP | A. Frazier | Marcano has a super-advanced bat, but is rail-thin without real power projection. |
| 40 | 32 | Hoy Park | SS | 25.3 | PIT | NYY | C. Holmes | Park had a stat breakout at age 25. He’s a viable middle infielder with good bat-to-ball skills. |
| 40 | 33 | Cooper Hummel | C | 26.7 | ARI | MIL | E. Escobar | A 1B/LF/”catcher,” Hummel switch hits and can punish mistakes. He’s a Swiss Army Knife role player. |
| 40 | 34 | Trevor Hauver | 2B | 22.7 | TEX | NYY | Gallo | Hauver has average power, tons of walks and Ks, and no real defensive home yet. |
| 40 | 35 | Austin Shenton | 1B | 23.6 | TBR | SEA | D. Castillo | Shenton is a bat-only future first baseman. Will 50 pop be enough? |
| 40 | 36 | Kevin Gowdy | SP | 23.7 | TEX | PHI | Gibson/Kennedy | Gowdy is a former overslot high school arm who’s had injuries. His velo is up in 2021; he has a back-end starter shot now. |
| 40 | 37 | Bryan De La Cruz | RF | 24.6 | MIA | HOU | Y. García | De La Cruz has added power in 2021. It’s a good fourth outfielder profile with a chance to be a second-division starter. |
| 40 | 38 | Payton Henry | C | 24.1 | MIA | MIL | Curtiss | Henry is a big, physical backstop with a plus arm and some pop. The bat is the question mark. |
| 40 | 39 | Noah Davis | SP | 24.3 | COL | CIN | M. Givens | Davis has a mid-90s fastball and a good slider. His command and changeup must improve to start. |
| 40 | 40 | Ricky DeVito | SP | 22.9 | PIT | ATL | R. Rodriguez | DeVito is a sinker/changeup relief prospect who enjoyed a velo spike during quarantine. |
| 40 | 41 | Riley Adams | C | 25.1 | WSN | TOR | B. Hand | Adams is a big, physical catching prospect with power and strikeout issues. He’s a high probability backup. |
| 40 | 42 | Glenn Otto | SIRP | 25.4 | TEX | NYY | Gallo | Otto is a slider machine who might be better off in the ‘pen. |
| 40 | 43 | Alex Scherff | SIRP | 23.5 | MIN | BOS | H. Robles | Scherff is a future middle reliever with mid-90s heat and a plus changeup, but he’s never found a consistent breaker. |
| 40 | 44 | Carter Bins | C | 23.2 | PIT | SEA | T. Anderson | Bins is a plus defensive catcher with huge questions surrounding the hit tool, but at least he draws walks. |
| 40 | 45 | Kelvin Gutierrez | 3B | 26.9 | BAL | KCR | Cash | Gutierrez is a plus third baseman with vanilla hit/power tools. He’s an infielder utility type. |
| 40 | 46 | Damon Casetta-Stubbs | SIRP | 22.0 | CLE | SEA | J. Bauers | Casetta-Stubbs had a velo spike and has a plus breaking ball. He’s a relief prospect. |
| 40 | 47 | Joaquin Tejada | SP | 18.0 | PIT | SEA | T. Anderson | Tejada is an athletic teen righty with big curveball spin rates. |
| 40 | 48 | Mason Thompson | SIRP | 23.4 | WSN | SDP | D. Hudson | Thompson has upper-90s gas and flashes a plus slider, but he’s often injured and has sub-par stats. |
| 35+ | 49 | Jack Suwinski | DH | 23.0 | PIT | SDP | A. Frazier | Suwinski is an interesting sleeper with big power and patience at the plate. His ability to limit Ks will define his future. |
| 35+ | 50 | Seth Shuman | SP | 23.7 | WSN | OAK | Gomes/Harrison | Shuman has a command-over-stuff starter’s package. Scouts wonder if he has a real weapon in the zone. |
| 35+ | 51 | Tyler Burch | SIRP | 24.0 | BAL | PHI | Galvis | Burch enjoyed a velo spike and has a plus slider. He led the Phillies org in SwStr% before the deal. |
| 35+ | 52 | Peyton Battenfield | SIRP | 23.9 | CLE | TBR | Luplow | Battenfield is a relief prospect with a rising fastball and a plus cutter. |
| 35+ | 53 | Jordy Barley | SS | 21.7 | WSN | SDP | D. Hudson | Barley has plus power and plus speed, but is chronically inconsistent. |
| 35+ | 54 | Jose Marte | SIRP | 25.2 | LAA | SFG | T. Watson | Marte throws upper-90s cheddar, and has an upper-80s slider and 30 control. |
| 35+ | 55 | Kasey Kalich | SIRP | 23.3 | KCR | ATL | Soler | Kalich has a mid-90s heater and had a short eval window as amateur. He’s a relief prospect. |
| 35+ | 56 | Elvis Peguero | SIRP | 24.4 | LAA | NYY | Heaney | Peguero is a long, loose reliever who has gotten into the upper 90s and is still looking for something consistent to go with it. |
| 35+ | 57 | Bailey Horn | MIRP | 23.5 | CHC | CHW | Tepera | Horn is 93-95 with an average breaking ball. He’s a relief prospect. |
| 35+ | 58 | Yainer Diaz | C | 22.9 | HOU | CLE | P. Maton | Diaz is an older catcher with contact ability, a bit of pop and a plus arm; his approach is the issue. |
| 35+ | 59 | Abrahan Gutierrez | C | 21.8 | PIT | PHI | B. Ogle | Gutierrez is a big-bodied catcher who is a solid defender with a good approach, some contact skills, and little power. |
| 35+ | 60 | Janson Junk | SP | 25.5 | LAA | NYY | Heaney | A somewhat generic reliever, Junk has a low-to-mid 90s fastball and a new (and newly-average) slider. |
| 35+ | 61 | T.J. Zeuch | SP | 26.0 | STL | TOR | Cash | The former first-round pick has struggled to miss big league bats. Zeuch has up-and-down starter feel at this point. |
| 35+ | 62 | Ivan Armstrong | MIRP | 21.0 | LAA | SFG | T. Watson | Armstrong looks like an NFL guard on-mound. He has a mid-90s fastball and an average slider. |
| 35+ | 63 | Josh Gessner | SIRP | 21.2 | TEX | PHI | Gibson/Kennedy | The Aussie product is showing a 92-94 mph sinker and a decent slider in the complex league. |
| 35 | 64 | Alberto Ciprian | 3B | 18.7 | ARI | MIL | E. Escobar | Ciprian, a young international bat, has big power potential and has generated big fear over where he ends up defensively, with first base the most likely answer. |
| 35 | 65 | Keegan Curtis | SIRP | 25.8 | ARI | NYY | T. Locastro | Curtis is an upper-level up/down relief-type with big fastball carry. |
| 35 | 66 | Case Williams | SIRP | 19.5 | CIN | COL | M. Givens | Williams is a young righty with breaking ball feel. |
| 35 | 67 | Evan Sisk | SIRP | 24.3 | MIN | STL | Happ | Sisk is an extra-org lefty with some ability to spin it. He has situational reliever ceiling. |
| 35 | 68 | Carlos Rincon | RF | 23.8 | NYM | LAD | B. McKinney | Rincon is a corner outfield prospect with pop and strikeouts. |
| 35 | 69 | Braeden Ogle | SIRP | 24.0 | PHI | PIT | A. Gutierrez | Ogle has had a velo spike but his fastball shape is poor. He’s a lefty relief flier. |
| 35 | 70 | Michell Miliano | SIRP | 21.6 | PIT | SDP | A. Frazier | Miliano is a young, sleek righty with low-90s velo, a good curve, and 20 control. |
| 35 | 71 | John Nogowski | 1B | 28.6 | PIT | STL | Cash | An upper-level performer, Nogowski is first base-only without big pop. |
| 35 | 72 | Calvin Faucher | SIRP | 25.9 | TBR | MIN | N. Cruz | Faucher has had a velo bump and has huge spin. He’s a relief flier. |
| 35 | 73 | Matt Dyer | C | 23.0 | TBR | NYM | R. Hill | Dyer is a lean, athletic catcher with power, an arm, and lots of strikeouts. |
| 35 | 74 | Donovan Casey | RF | 25.4 | WSN | LAD | Scherzer | Casey is an older Double-A performer, but a poor approach, middling pop and a corner profile limit him. |
| 35 | 75 | Richard Guasch | SIRP | 23.3 | WSN | OAK | Gomes/Harrison | Guasch is a 23-year-old Cuban who has mid-90s heat and a plus slider, but a bull-in-a-china-shop approach to locating. |
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Curious where Bryse Wilson would rank here if he wasn’t a little outside rookie eligibility.
Well preseason, they had him as a 45. Given his season so far, he’s probably a 40+ now
^ This feels right.
Ditto Pablo Sandoval
80 grade physique.
I believe that is where Story’s comp pick will be if he signs a contract for more than $50M in total money. If it’s less than that, it’s just after the second round instead of after the first. And that’s the difference between a prospect on the FV45/40+ line and one on the FV40+/40 line. While I don’t doubt Story could sign a deal for more than $50M if he wanted to, he may want to try his luck on a shorter-term contract since he’s had a rough time hitting this year.
(and, as pointed out to me yesterday, the rules around comp picks may change)
Do you think they’d change for the 2022 season? I’d have to imagine most rule changes regarding the draft and qualifying offers would affect 2023, at the earliest.
Teams approached the 2021 Trade Deadline with the 2022 Draft in view. I would guess the Rockies, among other front offices, would balk at any substantive change taking place this soon.
I think it would take effect immediately. When the new CBA went to IFA hard caps, it took effect immediately and teams had to break deals off with players that they agreed to sign because they didn’t have the money. The Yankees were going to sign Wander Franco, but didn’t have enough money to sign him due to the rule change, so he signed with the Rays instead.
Not all elements of a new CBA get implemented immediately. I do know that compensation for free agents, as one example, was delayed until the second year at least in some prior CBAs. I’d expect the existing free-agent compensation structure to remain in place through 2022 since decisions were already made expecting that it would remain in place through the upcoming off-season/season. Changes to the IFA rules could happen immediately as it doesn’t impact teams and union members on the MLB level.
I just don’t think it’s going to change unless the players do something really, really dumb like trade an international draft for dramatically weakening it / getting rid of it. They need to be saving that chip for arbitration reform / minimum salary increases.
But since the MLBPA has a 50/50 chance of doing something really, really dumb I guess we have to entertain this hypothetical, don’t we?
Yeah, the players gave away some of their best bargaining chips for nothing. Draft slots, hard draft caps, hard IFA caps, stiffer luxury tax penalties, etc. and got basically nothing in return. I have zero confidence in the MLBPA. I fully expect them to do something dumb like agreeing to expanded playoffs without seeing that it would cause teams to spend less and without getting much in return.
While certainly possible, it’s not likely. Story may not get the crazy money that Tatis or Lindor got because he’s a bit older, but I can’t see him getting less than $50M.
But if the Twins got not 1, but 2 guys better than the compensation pick for Cruz (while a markedly different player, a pretty good comp for Story), how could the Rox not get something for Story? Did they not know the offers were better or did they simply not even try?
I posted this on another thread but in the entire history of the draft (57 years), the 31st pick has netted:
– Greg Maddux (106.6 bWAR)
– Jarrod Washburn (28.2 bWAR)
– JP Howell (7.8 bWAR)
– Kirt Manwaring (5.2 bWAR)
– 11 guys with between 0 and 1.6 bWAR (Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Anthony Kay are in this group and still accumulating WAR)
– 10 guys with negative career bWAR
– 32 guys who never made the majors (though 3 of them are from the last 3 years so clearly way too early to call their careers).
Now, that’s a touch misleading since the draft goes back to 1965 when there were only 20 teams and a lot of the guys who didn’t make the majors were from back then. Every player taken from 2011 – 2018 has made the majors and 17 of 25 from 1994 – 2018. But still, there is so much that can go wrong between drafting a kid and him making the majors, the ROx could have reduced a lot of that risk by trading for a prospect that is much more of a known quantity.
The reason he might get less than $50M is that he decides that a 5-year, $65M deal (or whatever, could be $80M, same thing in this case) isn’t enough. So he signs a 1-year, $19M deal with the Reds instead because he thinks he’ll get more if he has a better year, doesn’t have a Q), and shows he can hit outside of Colorado. It’s not because he won’t get offers of that size, because he definitely will.
Basically what Marcus Semien did after his bad year in 2020. Who, by the way, is having an amazing season and looks like he should get a big payday this offseason.
I think he gets >$100M and even if it isn’t exactly what he wants, he still takes it. But if he doesn’t and the pick slips to the 70’s, it only furthers the question of why the Rockies didn’t trade him now for definite value.
I don’t know that teams will be lining up to give him a 9-figure deal this offseason, with the combination of the bad season, other options, and some Coors Field stank on him. I could be wrong though, it only takes one.
Something like 2/40m with an opt out after the first year would probably be pretty attractive if he wants to bet on himself?
So you’re saying the Rockies could get the next Greg Maddux with that pick!
If I were more skilled at posting, I would insert a Dumb and Dumber “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!” meme with a pic of Greg Maddux
EDIT: It’s the Rockies. THere is a better chance that they take the actual 55 yo Greg Maddux than the next Greg Maddux
Of course the Rockies would sign a 55 yo Maddux. Just because Jamie Moyer still had something in his tank at 50 doesn’t mean that’s the norm – most guys are already going down hill by the time they’re 45.
Dumbasses.
Signing Ian Desmond. Again.
I don’t understand what the Yankees were thinking. Especially since many other trades were made for mediocre prospect value. It’s a “have to win now” mentality., but this isn’t the year they are likely to win now
They needed to move at least three and probably five of Duran, Pereira, Castillo, Breaux, Otto, Vizcaino, and Junk or else they were going to lose guys in the Rule 5. They traded five of them (only kept Pereira and Breaux).
If you want to know why good prospects move at the deadline, you can usually chalk it up to (1) desperation (see the Blue Jays) or (2) 40-man roster crunches. That’s it.
Since Gallo has another year of team control (when presumably they’re still contenders), Heaney didn’t cost much, and Holmes is under control for a while those moves all made sense. The Gallo deal was the only one where they gave up a good prospect who wasn’t Rule 5 eligible and that was such good value they made the right move anyway. And, on top of that, they’re only 3 games or something back from the wild card. They only have to pass the A’s and hold off the Mariners and Blue Jays. It’s not especially likely but they’ve got a 45% chance of making the payoffs per ZiPs now when it was about 9% less before, and that’s worth playing for.
The only move that didn’t make sense is Rizzo, because they got a guy who isn’t that good anymore, cost them a good prospect who wasn’t Rule 5 eligible, and who is a free agent at the end of the year.
Basically this. The Rizzo move doesn’t make a ton of sense, but it’s also a major upgrade. But if you’re gonna do it, trade a guy who is likely a reliever and hasn’t pitched more than a handful of innings these last couple of years because of the pandemic and injury. Alcantara stings a bit more, but he’s a teenager in rookie ball who (you guessed it) has to be protected from the rule 5 draft in the 2022 offseason.
The worst part of it all that doesn’t make sense is the Yankees giving up better prospects to have teams eat money to stay under the CBT threshold. They should be doing the opposite. Taking on money and giving up less prospects. It’s ironic that they want to do this so they get to keep more IFA money and not move down in the draft, etc, but then trade better prospects to save money. Then again, maybe they soured on Kevin Alcantara and aren’t that high on the guys they gave up, but I’m going to guess that’s not the case. Everson Pereira (prospect rumored to originally be in the Gallo deal) went from being traded to promoted to high-A at the age of a (young) 20. I can’t tell if they like him a lot, are rushing him to see what they have before protecting him, or if that rumor of him being included in the Gallo deal was just false.
I’m not saying what you wrote is wrong because it could easily be accurate, but it’s hard to tell without being a fly on the wall during the negotiations. Some teams have learned that since they have already budgeted this year’s payroll expense, they have become more willing to eat that sunk cost for a better return than years past. Maybe they were just meeting the ask of the seller.
Damn, how does a TEENAGER end up needing to be protected from the Rule 5 draft?
It’s not possible for it to work out exactly like that, but it is possible for a guy to need to get protected at 20. I believe it takes 5 years for a teenager to need 40-man protection. If you are too young to sign at the deadline exactly (in previous years, if you needed to sign in say August), if my math is right you could need protection at age 20.
But my math might be off. I think the bigger lesson here is that if you are very successful with players from Latin America like the Yankees you will always be facing a Rule 5 crunch, simply because you’re signing them at 16.
This. If you sign at 16, you’re gonna have to be protected after your age 20 season. Oswald Peraza had to be protected last year and he’s barely over 21. With the new rules of the January signing period (that looks like it will stay) as opposed to the July signing period, it will push back rule 5 draft protection by one year which is huge. It’s really hard to make a decision on a prospect at 20. The only issue with this is that it looks like a prelude to an international draft, which is never good for players.
I meant in 2022, not this offseason. So he’ll still be just be 20 when the Yankees have to make a decision on him.
Actually Alcantara didn’t have to be protected this year – he was signed in 2018 so wasn’t Rule 5 eligible until 2022. Realistically his value is almost all projection at this point so the Yanks may not have had quite the same value on him as Fangraphs for example. Still hurts to see him go in this case though.
I think the “not taking on money” is much more about the luxury tax cost implications – some of which you touched on . They seem fixed on breaking the string of going over possibly at a point where the opportunity might not present itself again soon. An eventual extension for Judge (hard to see them let him go given their typical M.O.) , a boatload of guys moving through the arb process, and not that much in expiring contracts over the next couple of years, plus the likelihood of the owners fighting hard for the luxury tax thresholds being held down again in this next CBA because it sure seems to be working to hold down salary growth may have made this year their best opportunity to reset.
Its their money and the wealthy do tend to keep their eyes on that.
“Alcantara stings a bit more, but he’s a teenager in rookie ball who (you guessed it) has to be protected from the rule 5 draft in the 2022 offseason.”
Always have to look ahead when it comes to the rule 5 draft. No doubt that was a consideration in dealing guys like Josh Smith and Alcantara. It’s true that it is their money, but don’t act like you’re willing to do everything to win, when really you’re doing everything you can to win within your self imposed financial constraints. The Yankees had a 200M payroll in 2004, and are basically running the same payroll nearly 20 years later. I mean come on. It’s an affront to their fans’ intelligence by cutting payroll multiple times in a championship window to try to save a few bucks. I think their last luxury tax bill was like 15M? They can find that between the cushions. Look at the Dodgers. The Yankees make more money than them but spend far less on payroll.
They might see Rizzo as a rental with an option to buy. 😉
So now the Twins have Balazovic, Woods Richarson, Duran, Strotman, and Ryan in AA or AAA. That’s a pretty good group of pitching prospects. Probably they get two solid guys for the rotation out of that group in the next couple of years. If they get a #2 starter / 4 win type out of them that would be an unlikely but huge success story. Same with three solid guys for the rotation. They’re not a serious threat in 2022 but by 2023 they might be, and by 2024 I think they will.
And that’s before we consider that Buxton and maybe Rogers are likely to get moved this offseason. It’s not been a great year but at least they probably aren’t looking at a half-decade rebuilding cycle.
I’m not sure I’m ready to say Buxton is likely to be traded. I get the feeling they’d still like to extend him. It’ll be interesting to see whether anything at all gets done before there’s a new CBA, though.
I still feel queasy about giving up Madrigal and Heuer for 1.5 years of an expensive reliever. Am I crazy? Kimbrel makes the White Sox much more of a World Series threat this year, but I just can’t fathom that another team was willing to give up anywhere near that much.
Kimbrel makes the White Sox much more of a World Series threat this year
That answers all the question. He also makes them much more of a World Series threat next year, although next year is promised to nobody. Except maybe the Dodgers.
You also can’t look at that move in a vacuum. I like Madrigal a lot, but Hernandez + Kimbrel > Madrigal + Heuer. Definitely this year because Madrigal is out, but maybe next year, too.
You’re not crazy. At some point in the not too-distant future (2023 or so) this team is going to have to make a choice between spending far more money than Reinsdorf has ever done and having glaring holes on the roster. But on the bright side there’s no super-dominant team in the AL so this is the right time to make win now moves, and their team is more or less set for 2022 where they’ll be legitimate world series contenders again.
He already is. Spotrac estimates their payroll this year at $140M and their previous high was about $125M in 2011. Next year they have almost $150M committed to 12 guys (assuming they exercise Hernandez and Kimbrel’s options) with Goodwin and Marshall being A3 and Giolito, Engel, and Lopez being A2. Only Giolito is going to get decent money out of that, but if they try to bring back Rodon or sign a corner OF like Conforto then they will probably be up around $175M or more.
I think that’s possibly doable. It’s a lot but it’s not crazy. But in 2023 do we really think that one of the masterminds behind the 80s collusion is going to be excited to pay the luxury tax? I know he’s old and wants to win but that’s a pretty big leap, and he might be dead then anyway and who knows if the heirs will want to sell or keep it (adding even more uncertainty).
A lot of guys will be off the books by 2023 and God only knows what the CBA will look like. Even under the current structure, the tax threshold looks to be about $215M by then and they are still at least a couple of big contracts short of that. The did run top 5 payrolls in 2006 – 08 and 2011, and 7th in 2010 when they thought they were in a championship window, but that maxed out a much lower number.
It gets hard for me to estimate payroll after next year because Cots hasn’t updated lately. They don’t even have Lynn’s extension. Spotrac hasn’t caught up after the trade deadline yet.
I guess he could turn over management to his son who reportedly runs the Bulls. They have never been very transparent about who does what in management, but that doesn’t seem to be working out well for the basketball team.
I never get how fans are always so much more concerned about 2-3 seasons down the road rather than this season and next. As you noted right at the end of your comment, they’re very well positioned this season and next…and probably a couple beyond that.
Meh. Madrigal isn’t playing this year and Kimbrel makes that bullpen nasty. I’m the low man on Madrigal though. I feel that over time, pitchers will figure him out a bit more and the no power thing at 2B is an issue. 2B has become one of the easier positions to fill on the diamond, so I don’t think this is a major loss.
Aside from the offensive Shangri-La that was 2020, we haven’t had a season where over half the teams are getting average or better production at 2B in years.
I’d agree that it’s easy to find 2B, and relatively cheap, but I don’t know if I’d agree that it’s easy to find ideal talent there.
I’m not even sure that I’d count 1.5 years of Kimbrel. Do the Sox really want to pay Kimbrel $16m and Hendricks $13.3m next year? That’s a lot to lock up in two relievers. They could trade Kimbrel, but one year of a closer at market value isn’t worth tons, even if that closer is elite.
You never know, but Hahn specifically said that having Hernandez and Kimbrel under control for 2022 was a big reason he targeted those two.
Yeah, they’ll keep Kimbrel. Hahn used his FA money this past off-season on Hendriks and Eaton rather than Springer so that tells you how much he values the bullpen.
Bryant went for less than Nelson Cruz (as did Adam Frazier though the Pirates seem to like Tucupita Marcano far more than Longenhagen does). I wonder why Hahn didn’t ask for Bryant and Kimbrel while throwing in, say, Dalquist & Adolfo in addition to Madrigal and Heuer. (Or paying far less for Richard Rodriguez than Kimbrel and keeping Madrigal.)
Adolfo and Dalquist are respectively 40+ and 40 FV prospects per Fangraphs. Neither’s performances should raise those rankings, considering Adolfo has still failed to make adequate contact or get on base at a decent rate, while Dalquist has been horrendous at low-A.
The actual return for Bryant was a 45 FV and a 40+ FV, the latter on a close timeline with outstanding current performance.
Jared Kelley is the only 45 FV prospect the White Sox have according to FG, A similar Bryant return on paper would be more like Kelley + Adolfo.
The Pirates like Marcano a lot more than Pirates fans do too!
I suspect they will keep Kimbrel. They can always deal him at the deadline next year if they somehow fall out of the race. He’d have the most value then anyway. There’s performance risk, but relievers always have that. One would think a deep playoff run would more than pay for it.
You are in the same breath arguing that the Sox traded Madrigal for 2 months of Kimbrel, but also that they couldn’t get a lot of value for one year of Kimbrel.
It’s interesting how high you guys are on Madrigal. Not saying it’s wrong but it seems like the industry in general is low on second basemen and low power players, and Madrigal is both.
An FV55 for a position player puts up between 2.5 and 3.3 wins, per Eric and Kiley. You can get knocked down for risk you won’t make it there, but Madrigal is already doing that (actually was doing better than that, although I don’t buy that he’s going to keep both the contact and power at that level). Madrigal is also projected by ZiPs as a guy who puts up about 3 wins per 600 PAs. So 55 seems about right, because there’s almost no projection you need to make.
Worth noting that this is a bit of an implicit rebuke to the earlier ranking of Madrigal on the top 50 trade list. On the list he was ahead of guys like Marco Luciano and Julio Rodriguez and now he’s clearly behind.
Well stated! That all makes sense.
bat to ball ability is the most premium skill in baseball. power and bat path are things one can change, but raw hitting ability is harder to improve.
i’d take this kind of raw material as the basis for development.
This list makes me think of the “why do teams wait to trade” article from a couple weeks before the deadline. Adam Frazier was one of the hottest commodities hyped throughout July. Given the seller’s market that unfolded in the last 48 hours, the Pirates appear to have gotten a below average to poor return on one of the more popular trade targets.
Or maybe the people hyping Frazier’s trade value on the internet were wrong and front offices just didn’t value him that highly.
Yep, it was a couple chumps who posted articles at bleacher report, that’s all. There was definitely no industry chatter about Frazier at all. The guy was a starter in the ASG and controlled through next season. Per the rankings above, he arguably fetched less than a middle reliever without options.
The begging the question that exists in criticizing trades is fascinating.
“Wow, the Pirates really screwed the pooch by not getting a 50 FV prospect out of Frazier!”
The criticism naturally holds that value as “true”, despite it maybe not being that high.
And you think the Cubs got top dollar for Bryant by waiting until the last minute?? Clearly it’s a gamble either way.
Bryant was a 2 month rental.
So I read yesterday that the Rays are deadline loosers for giving up the…52nd-best prospect traded in the past week for a platoon bat. Aite.
No, they were deadline *losers* because the Yankees and Blue Jays improved more than they did.
Not to mention trading Diego Castillo for unproven guys. I get they want to save money before he gets expensive, but they couldn’t have just traded him in the offseason?
Did they? Ray’s are still favored to win the division and WS more than them. They gained minimal ground, but the Ray’s had the more efficient use of resources. They traded a 0.4% decrease in WS odds for how much of an increase over the next three?
And those “more efficient use of resources” flags fly forever. In Tampa at least.
The Rays org does very good things and stays very competitive on a pittance of what other teams spend. But is it at least possible that winning it all could change the dynamic in that market as it did for the Angels in 2002 or how the playoff win for Seattle in 1995 changed their fortunes and stadium plan and we might not be hearing about a 2 city franchise or one that barely draws flies and is propped up by revenue sharing (except last year) and the Central Fund ?
Not to be that guy, but is there any chance we can get Kilian on THE BOARD?
The blurb makes it seem like they still need to take another look at Kilian. Command over stuff sounds like the pre-pandemic guy who sat 88-92 and not the guy who apparently has been sitting at 95+ this season
Pirates were quietly losers of this deadline, imo.
I’d agree with this. I did not think they got good value for Frazier, Anderson, or Rodriguez. It was a pretty weak return on all three trades. Especially Rodriguez, who has more than 2 years of control remaining.
All that said–and I know gettwobrute is going to disagree with me there–this team is facing a major 40-man roster crunch next year because they have too many players who aren’t ready to jump to the majors and need protection. Even if they DFA every marginal 40-man guy right now they have Mason Martin, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Cal Mitchell, Omar Cruz, Liover Peguero, and Tahnaj Thomas on the “must-add” prospect list and who are a bit of a stretch to start next year in the majors. With Oneil Cruz and Roansy Conteras already on the 40-man, that’s 8 guys you can’t leave unprotected and who probably aren’t ready at the start of 2022. Plus they have three guys who are second basemen who are on the 40-man and who should not play shortstop (Castro, Marcano, Chavis), and a couple of other guys they literally just traded for who Eric doesn’t like but will need protection (Suwinski, Abrahan Gutierrez). So they had to be a bit choosy about which 40-man eligible prospects they traded for.
Skipping Rodolfo Castro from AA to the majors seems like a sign they are going to be more aggressive with promotions. 40 man will be young.
I don’t think its dire, if Cal Mitchell had to be a 5th OF’er next year, its not the end of the world.
There is truly a ton of fat on the 40man right now. And a few guys who could be offseason trades, ie Moran, Brault, Kuhl.
Yeah, the problem is that the role of guys who sit on the bench means they don’t develop. So you can promote Cal Mitchell to be the 4th outfielder with Oliva as the 5th and that actually works, provided that you’ve given up on one or both of them improving much. That might be fine.
The key to everything is to promote guys and let them play. If their plan is to play Swaggerty in CF (seems reasonable), Cruz in RF (or let him make a million errors at shortstop), and Mason Martin at first (and ditch Moran and Nogowski) then there’s really no problem at all.
I think they go the mid tier prospect on the active roster route to start the season, then do a switch with Swaggerty/Cruz after the super two deadline. Or something like that.
But yeah, both approaches seem reasonable.
I also just looked at Mason Martin’s page and he is absolutely not cutting down on his K’s, and has lost some walks.
Cal Mitchell starting the year in the corner outfield and then maybe throwing Diego Castillo or Michael Chavis in the other corner to start the year would do it. They probably only need 2 guys up at a time and this way they can force Smith-Njigba, Cruz, Swaggerty, and Martin to earn playing time before the super-two.
Its weird because his K% is pretty consistent between levels, I think there is a path for him if he can keep it low 30s, but its an uphill battle.
But some prospects are only going to be bench guys anyway. They’re not all going to be starting position players. That’s what guys like Oliva are for!
Rodriguez has been great this year, but his greatness has been based entirely on homerun suppression. Teams are probably not buying into him maintaining that 3.3% HR/FB rate.
I don’t think the 40-man roster crunch is really as bad as you’ve consistently made it out to be. There’s going to be a crunch but I wouldn’t be surprised if they have some consolidation-based offseason moves already planned or structured. They also have probably the most empty 40-man in the sport right now, in terms of depth.
I would be shocked if they have consolidation-based moves up their sleeve. I think they’re banking on a bunch of interesting prospects not getting picked. But also, the key thing here isn’t the 40-man, it’s that you need 26 players in the majors, they can’t all play one position, and you need at least 4 pitchers and 2 position players in AAA to serve as upper level depth. You really can’t get by carrying more than 8 guys on the 40-man roster who can’t be called up at a moment’s notice. Otherwise you’re DFA’ing guys.
As it turns out, I listed exactly 8 guys up there, so they are right on the edge.
I don’t know why you wouldn’t think they have consolidation moves planned. They don’t want to suck forever, and I’m almost sure this front office views itself as a competitor in 2023-24. If that’s the case, there is a good chance they find a few buy-low candidates and offer them two or three close-proximity prospects. It’s not like this is unheard of, even for the Pirates. Look at the A.J. Burnett deal, for example. Offseason deal for a team that wasn’t quite ready to compete.
Also, pieces that aren’t non-tender or DFA candidates like Moran, Gamel and others are probably going to be trade chips and they’ll almost certainly look for lower-level prospects in return.
I also think you’re overrating the protection needs of a few guys here.They’ll have a crunch, it just isn’t the reason I’m low on their deadline.
Well, this is mostly moot because they are out of real trade chips. They might be able to get a low-level prospect out of a team that thinks they can fix Stratton, but Moran and Gamel will get you someone else that got cut or cash. And the protection moves are mostly Eric’s “must-protect” list. Mine would have been longer.
No, I don’t think there are any consolidation moves coming this offseason. First off, I think they have a very short window to make those moves before the 40-man rosters are set. It’s something like three weeks. Second, they have to find a team that is willing to take 40-man prospects that a rebuilding team is willing to give up, so it has to be a team without a 40-man crunch of their own, is rebuilding, and hasn’t totally torn down already. Third, any player they trade for would need to be controlled for long enough that a rebuilding team would want them, but that means by definition a rebuilding team would be unlikely to trade them unless you overpay a bit.
If you try to think through who they could possibly target, the list is small. The Orioles, Tigers, Rockies, Cubs, Royals, and Marlins are not trading controllable players unless they’re busted or they’re getting huge packages back. The Twins, Guardians (boy that’s weird to type), and Rangers have Rule 5 problems of their own. The guys you could trade for are post-prospect guys like the permanently hurt Adalberto Mondesi. Does swapping two of those 8 guys for Mondesi sound like a deal you want to do? Maybe if it were Cal Mitchell and Mason Martin or if you think Tahnaj Thomas is broken or Omar Cruz won’t even throw strikes. But teams are going to be asking about upper level pitching in any deal.
I’m not sure what about Chris Stratton needs fixed, considering he’s running an ERA below 3 much of the year and his peripherals suggest only minor regression.
The consolidation trades also don’t have to be for proven major league commodities. They can be for AAA pieces or 7th and 8th starters. We’re also talking about legitimate prospects being sent out.
Cahill, Polanco and Shreve are done. For the sake of roster balance, lets say Swaggerty, Thomas and Cruz are added.
The other 60-day IL players are Brault, Cederlind and Jose Soriano.
If all 3 are retained, you’re looking at 38 right now. Add Mitchell and Smith-Njigba
Difo and Evans are likely both gone. In steps Peguero and Diego Castillo.
Left are Mason Martin, Cody Bolton and five fringe guys. They just acquired Yean and Suwinski this year, so lets say they need to be added.
That leaves you with 42 on the 40-man. Here are the following you wouldn’t have up on opening day.
Swaggerty, Thomas, both Cruz’s, Mitchell, Smith-Njigba, Peguero, Martin, Bolton, Yean, Suwinski, Contreras. That’s 12, but they’re fairly balanced across positional spectrums. It’s certainly a young 40-man but it isn’t as impossible as you make it seem. Most of these guys are fairly old for their levels and will probably start next season in AAA. (O’Neil, Roansy and Bolton would be there already if it wasn’t for injuries. Swaggerty would possibly be in the majors).
They’ll probably hang onto the fringe relievers, but I think Tom, Gonzalez, Ponce, Tucker, Peters and others are all candidates to be DFA’d.
Is it ideal? No, but if the back-end of your 26-man roster is filled with inning eaters and guys like Marcano and Hoy Park that can play just about everywhere, it’s not like you’re going to have to give Tahnaj Thomas 100 innings anytime soon.
I tried to work through this the other day. If you DFA/cut/non-tender/let go of Polanco, Nogowski (or Moran, take your pick), Newman, Gonzalez, Tucker, Difo, Evans, Tom, Underwood, Howard, Spitzbarth, Ponce, Banda, Cederlin, Soriano, Cahill, Shreve, De Jong, Peters, and Kuhl, then you’ve cleared out everyone that no one really thinks is a long-term guy.
The lineup from the holdovers at that point look like Moran (or Nogowski), Castro (or Chavis or Castillo or Marcano), Hayes, Stallings, Reynolds, and Gamel. So they need one shortstop and one right fielder. The rotation is Brault, Brubaker, Keller, Kranick, and probably Bryse Wilson (although he could be a reliever long-term). The bullpen consists of Bednar, Stratton, Keller, Mears, and Oviedo (Oviedo, Keller, and Mears might really need to go back to AAA but doing that will really screw the rest of this up). The bench would consist of Park, Oliva, and Perez (so far). That’s 19 slots.
That means you would need 3 relievers (can’t have more than 13 pitchers in 2022, it’s a new rule), one starting shortstop, one backup infielder that you don’t mind riding the bench and not developing, one right fielder, and one other position players you don’t mind riding the bench. Some of the candidates for these jobs might already be on the roster and wouldn’t need to get DFA’d but again, if we keep them it’s going to screw up things later. So let’s just assume they’re all gone.
You also need at least two starters, and at least two relievers, and at least two position players in AAA that you can call up at a moment’s notice. The starters and position players are easy. Crowe and Yajure easily fill the starters slot, and Contreras and Bolton could be ready too. But there aren’t any obvious candidates for the reliever slots, and you’re down three relievers already in the majors. So you might need to convert some of those four guys to relievers, which isn’t optimal, and even if you do convert two of them you’d probably still need Omar Cruz to become a reliever, plus at least two of the DFA’d relievers from before (or find new ones). For position players, you will have a bunch of guys who could be called up–Swaggerty, Chavis, Marcano, Smith-Njigba, Oneil Cruz, Cal Mitchell, Diego Castillo, and Mason Martin will all be in AAA.
Now you’re at 32 names, and you still need two relievers, so that’s 34. This is fine as long as you’re willing to give up on two of those guys being starters, and it is especially fine if you’re willing to just send some of those guys in AAA to the majors directly to play everyday straight out of training camp (you can demote Gamel to 4th OF if you want). Let’s say you put Chavis in LF to start the season and Cal Mitchell in right (you could substitute in any set of the other guys too, they’ll make the team straight out of training camp. You’ll still need one more random position player who never gets off the bench, so that’s 35. And a shortstop, so that’s 36; maybe this means Newman stays or they find someone else.
That leaves Peguero and Thomas hanging out in AA, bringing them to 38. Still not sure what their plan is with Suwinski and Gutierrez, who they just traded for. It also assumes we ditched Cederlind and Soriano, didn’t add de los Santos, Lolo Sanchez (who they must not care about anymore, and I’m not sure why). The only reason this plan works is because two of the guys broke camp with the big league club in the outfield, but if that doesn’t happen those guys they will be right at 40 and all the fringe guys are unprotected. They’re basically right at the edge of having a problem.
Needs fixed…mark mark representing western PA! And fully endorse your 40 man assessment.
As a Bucs fan, I do concur with this on the trade returns, but I’m not sure how it could have been better. Frankly, BC hasn’t impressed me much on the trade market with those three and Musgrove over the winter, although I think he did quite well with the Taillon and Marte deals.
The larger issue with the current three is I don’t think they had much value, period. Anderson was never going to fetch much, period. I think Frazier was overrated locally because he’s just having an insane out of character year by a guy who realistically could have been DFA’d after 2020. His season doesn’t feel sustainable. RR just doesn’t feel like a guy who fits the industry mode of a fire breathing reliever who would blow your hair back. He’s an effective, but not sexy back end bullpen piece. It’s not Kimberly or something that.
Having said all this, I don’t think waiting till next offseason helps. RR and Frazier haven’t changed who they are. So maybe this is the best return they could get. Yet it still feels unfulfilling. Maybe they couldn’t get teams to agree on tooled up guys far away, and had to go this way.
I will save everyone else my thoughts on the 40 man as we’ve danced to this tune before, haha.
I can understand that take, but I actually thought they did quite well. They seemed to be working around a very specific strategy (much like they did in the draft) this year. That alone is refreshing, but after stocking the lower levels of the minors with one of the deepest systems in baseball, they made acquiring AAA players who will likely be in the majors soon a priority, and all but guaranteed they will be able to protect their deep system come rule 5 time. Cherington also said that they targeted specific player traits, and the emphasis on high contact rates was clear, though I’m sure there are more far more complex indicators they’re looking at. Whether the market inefficiency they chose to exploit works out remains to be seen, but it seems to be at least partially aligned with Preller’s. Also had to remind myself that they really didn’t have a ton of value to trade. Rodriguez’s numbers have trended in the wrong direction post-crackdown, Frazier had real value, but is probably in line for some regression, and the rest were struggling relievers and Tyler Anderson.
On Frazier, the most similar player traded this deadline was Cesar Hernandez, who brought back one 40 FV guy comparable to Marcano. Frazier brought back Marcano plus two lower value prospects. So you can say Frazier’s value was higher, but not by a whole lot.
On one hand I agree, reading this, and what the Pirates got does not look good. But on the other hand Madrgial+ was traded for a reliever, so value for 2nd basemen with contact skills seems pretty low for whatever reason.
Also, Pirates looked to get guys with contact skills, a bunch of lefty/switch hitters, and guys who have broken out this year.
Thank you for putting the “Compensatory Pick” line in. It’s a good way to see that, of the elite talent, the bare minimum that the team should be expected to receive back / give up for a rental.
It also helps assuage me because I thought (insert prospect here) was too high of a price to pay for (insert traded big name here).
It’s interesting that Hummel didn’t even warrant a mention in the Brewers top 42 (Or even among the 20 or so other names to watch there), and a few weeks after that list is released he is a 40 FV.
I don’t get that either. Obviously he was killing it in AAA this season, but <35 to 40 is a rather sizable FV jump to base on 126 ABs. Was there noticeable defensive improvement as well?
Thought that was interesting too. Especially considering Payton Henry was #23 on that Brewers top 42, but here Hummel is a few spots ahead of him.
I’m wondering where Jesus Luzardo would have ranked on this list. He was near the top when he was rookie eligible
So the Cubs could’ve kept Darvish and signed Bauer (and stayed under the tax line still), and still be playing meaningful baseball.
Darvish/Bauer/Hendricks and that bullpen has a decent chance in a playoff series.
Instead they got a singles only infielder and a defense first outfielder. complete front office failure on their part.
I just want to point out that your hypothetical scenario includes signing Trevor Bauer. If you’re going to lean into hindsight bias and you’re signing Trevor Bauer anyway, I have some questions.
This. *So* much this.
I suspect Alcantara is being overrated on these lists and Caleb Kilian is being underrated. Personally, I’m not even sure Alcantara is the best CF or OF prospect the Cubs landed while selling off (PCA)
Kilian’s sneaky, exactly the kind of pitching prospect who goes underrated. It’s always nice when a pitching prospect is actually doing the good stuff rather than might one day after he recovers from surgery and learns to throw strikes
Deichmann seems a little underrated too. I feel like the only person noticing that .430 OBP, keep hearing how backwards he’s gone despite having arguably his best all around season in the MiLs
The cubs have had OBP machines like Mark Zagunis come through their system recently. If OBP is Deichmann’s calling card, I’m not exactly jumping for joy. His SLG in a notoriously hitter friendly AAA park is nothing to write home about. I’m not going to completely ride him off, but I think he’s being rated fairly.
Kilian had a velocity jump, so Fangraphs staff seems to be a bit behind in that regard. I can’t wait to see if the cubs can coax even more velocity out of him, while refining his breaking stuff in the pitch lab.
Maybe Alcantara is a bit overrated, but the ceiling seems pretty massive and I like the strategy of collecting as many high ceiling, plus athlete teenagers as possible and hoping a couple figure it out.
Was a PCA fan before the draft last year and I was pleasantly surprised he was the return for Javy and a AAAA pitcher like Trevor Williams.
I’m a big fan of Vizcaino’s arm. Hopefully he can be a part of a dominant pen with Ben Leeper or Burl Carraway, and one of the other interesting upper 90s flame throwers the system seems to be flush with. I’d be interested to see if DJ Herz has a velocity spike if moved to the pen while climbing the ladder. Hopefully Ryan Jensen can develop a consistently above avergage secondary so he can remain a starter.
Deichmann and Zagunis have next to nothing in common and I genuinely have no clue how posting a .430 OBP in AAA on the first go could be bad. Over 2000+ PAs between NCAA and MiLB, Deichmann’s got a .200 IsoSLG, probably OK to say this isn’t a punchless hitter
Oh yeah and I love Vizcaino’s changeup, def see high leverage potential
Should add that all these nice things I’m saying: the profile is a 5th OF and corner bench bat, but the LH bat gives him a shot at being a platoon bat
Its not that they’re the same player. Its the fact that his OBP spike seems to have people raving, and without another standout skill (like Zagunis), this isn’t the type of prospect I get overly excited seeing. Pedestrian SLG in his wiffle ball AAA park has me a bit worried, along with his current k rate, especially for a guy who can’t hit lefties. With that being said, maybe the cubs can tinker with his swing to get some of his reportedly massive raw power to play better in games. But this is an older prospect with legit collegiate experience. You would figure he’d have made more strides in that department by now, though injuries can derail things and progress isn’t always linear. But he is what he is; an interesting guy with a shot to crush righties if he can tap into his raw power more consistently and retain most of the approach that has allowed him to put up a prime Votto OBP. He’s just not someone I get particularly excited about.
With the plethora of high upside BP arms in the system atm, I’ll be pretty upset if the cubs can’t develop an above average pen with mostly the homegrown talent they’ve assembled. I’m not against spending for an elite reliever if it makes sense and you feel thats the missing piece, but if you can allocate funds to other parts of the roster due to a cost controlled pen, it seems to be preferable to most. Hopefully we get to see Marquez and Kohl Franklin soon! And I’m excited to see Steele as a starter. Its sad Jack Patterson went down and had to have TJ this year. I know FGs wasn’t a fan, but the kid can flat out pitch and was extremely difficult to square up in 2019.
Reading this is really pissing me off about the return the Pirates got this deadline. Seems extremely underwhelming.
They had a decent, but not stellar group to sell off. Each trade chip had a rather significant asterisk attached to them:
Frazier = Career year with regression likely
Rich Rod = Peripherals down and even more since the sticky stuff ban
Tyler Anderson = Scrap heap guy before the season
Not sure what we were expecting, but given the quality of the other guys traded at the deadline, I (somewhat) understand why the returns were what they were.
They also decided not to trade their best player, Bryan Reynolds, who if traded most certainly would have fetched a haul.
Long story short, you’re not going to remake your farm trading 3 middle tier players. But the depth in the system is now stronger (the BOARD says >60 deep), so there’s that.
Drew Millas: Millas is a plus defender with a plus arm and some power, but big holes in the swing lead to an elevated K rate
He currently has a 15% walk rate to 14% K rate, I think even by the most liberal of definitions of elevated K rate, we can agree that is a stretch.
Two surprising things that this list highlights for me …
The Rays gave up two 45s for a DH that didn’t have much of a market. Bryant and Baez have each been more valuable this season and each only got one 45 in return. I get that the Rays have a bit of rule 5 crunch but they really overpaid and could have gotten back more value for two 45s.
Under the radar move, but Brewers gave up a 45 for Daniel Norris?! Crazy overpay. R. Rodriguez, Yimi Garcia, Givens, and Curtiss are all just as good (or better) and Rodriguez/Curtiss are not free agents at year end like Norris.
Apparently the market for Cruz was pretty robust! Don’t ask me how. Maybe the Twins are just really good at this.
Norris is a lefty, and he was way better last year. Small sample size, but the Brewers did a similar thing when they traded for Pomeranz. Still seems like a serious overpay though, you’re supposed to get a discount when you’re trading for a pitcher who you think you can fix since they’re not fixed yet.
EDIT: Earlier post said he had one more year of team control. That appears to not be true. I get fooled by that Free Agent ETA on the top of the player page a lot.
This is the sort of facile analysis you make when you only pay attention to the number next to a name.
Truth. Just because Eric sums up Olson’s value as 45 doesn’t mean the Brewers or most MLB teams view him as a high-ceiling commodity. Probably safe to say the Tigers like him, but “relief risk” means that if Fangraphs has overrated Olson’s ceiling by just a smidge, he essentially falls into a dime a dozen territory.
Don’t get me wrong, Eric does fantastic work and I happily pay a subscription for his coverage. But just because he bumped Cooper Hummel up from unrated to a 40 overnight doesn’t change Arizona’s actual return for Escobar. Likewise, Olson could just as easily have been ranked a 40+ or even a 40 and then what, no one blinks at this deal?
I agree it was an overpay but more because Norris is not good, not because Olson is “a 45.”
I guess. Does anyone commenting here actually have a wealth of knowledge about Drew Strotman, Reese Olson, and Joe Ryan? I’m willing to defer to Eric’s ranking because he’s a expert and knows more about these guys most anyone else. Should we draw no conclusions from all the trades and instead just chalk everything up to complexities, vagaries, nuance, and chance?
Love this article. Thanks for including the COL compensatory pick. That would be 2nd round type as COL gets assistance. The Cubs do not so theirs would be a 3rd round type and explain their motivation to move Bryant for less. Would this type of pick rank equal (40+) or lower?
Looking at this list, it’s truly amazing how much above the “market” level the Yankees were willing (and able) to pay in prospects vs. the other buyers. Getting Alcantara alone for Rizzo would have been a sweet return for the Cubs, but they got another nice piece with Vizcaino. I may be alone in this, but I thought they paid a small premium on Gallo as well, and I’m more bullish on Gallo than most.
But when the Yankees give Pittsburgh about the same quality of return for C. Holmes (who I honestly hadn’t heard of before the trade) as the Padres gave the Pirates for Adam Frazier, that’s just bizarro.
C. Holmes: No runs allowed in 4 appearances! But yeah, I want to know which side initiated that trade.
Top 2 and bottom 2 are NATs.
Confirmed: Mike Rizzo loves it on both the top and the bottom.
Cubs got a freaking haul.
So basically, about 18 players more valuable than the compensation draft pick were traded at the deadline. The Rockies couldn’t find one of those they liked?
Riley Adam’s #41 with a FV 40 was called up early by Nats and pared with Gray (#1 55) for a nicely called game and solid at bat’s with a 9th inning go ahead homer (Aug 7). Means nothing other than that he clearly wasn’t overwhelmed and looks like he belongs. Fun to see. Five more games in the majors and his prospect rating might need reevaluation.