Archive for Playoffs

Individual performances tend to be magnified in the postseason, and that is especially true of pitchers. While 16-18 other players appear in the lineups and many others will have profound impacts on the outcomes of games over the next month, the starting pitcher will likely have more influence over the outcome of a single game than any other player. Everything is magnified in the playoffs from managerial decisions to clutch hits, errors, and great plays in the field, but starting pitching is perhaps most deserving of the increased scrutiny. By the end of the second inning, perhaps sometime into the third, the starting pitcher will have taken part in more plays than any position player during the entire game.

In a winner-take-all game like the Wild Card, deserving players might be pushed to the background ahead of the game in favor of the pitching, but the matchup between pitchers will likely be the difference between the team that keeps playing and the team whose season is over. For those watching the Cubs take on the Pirates, they will witness one of the very best pitching matchups the playoffs have ever seen.

In Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole, both teams will feature bona fide aces. Arrieta might have just had the best half-season of all time. Overall, he’s pitched 229 innings with an ERA of 1.77 and a FIP of 2.35, giving Arrieta a 45 ERA- and a 60 FIP- over the full season after league and park are taken into account. He’s in pretty rare company. Consider: since the end of World War II, these are the qualified pitchers with an ERA- below 50 and a FIP- below 65 over a full season.

Greatest Combination of FIP and ERA in History

Name	Season	Team	IP	ERA	FIP	WAR	ERA-	FIP-
Pedro Martinez	1999	Red Sox	213.1	2.07	1.39	11.6	42	31
Roger Clemens	1997	Blue Jays	264	2.05	2.25	10.7	45	50
Pedro Martinez	2000	Red Sox	217	1.74	2.17	9.4	35	48
Ron Guidry	1978	Yankees	273.2	1.74	2.19	9.1	47	58
Dwight Gooden	1985	Mets	276.2	1.53	2.13	8.9	44	58
Bob Gibson	1968	Cardinals	304.2	1.12	1.75	8.6	38	64
Zack Greinke	2009	Royals	229.1	2.16	2.33	8.6	48	54
Pedro Martinez	1997	Expos	241.1	1.9	2.39	8.5	45	57
Roger Clemens	1990	Red Sox	228.1	1.93	2.18	8.2	47	55
Greg Maddux	1995	Braves	209.2	1.63	2.26	7.9	39	52
Greg Maddux	1994	Braves	202	1.56	2.39	7.4	37	54
Pedro Martinez	2003	Red Sox	186.2	2.22	2.21	7.4	48	51
Jake Arrieta	2015	Cubs	229	1.77	2.35	7.3	45	60
Pedro Martinez	2002	Red Sox	199.1	2.26	2.24	7.3	50	54
Randy Johnson	1997	Mariners	213	2.28	2.82	7	50	62

The only pitcher with better context neutral numbers in both ERA and FIP and more innings was Dwight Gooden in his amazing 1985 season. It is easy to see why so much attention has been given to Jake Arrieta this season and in this matchup, but the Pittsburgh Pirates’s Gerrit Cole has had an excellent season of his own. Cole’s 5.4 WAR is fifth in the National and ninth in Major League Baseball. Pitchers don’t choose their opposition, leaving great matchups more to a question of chance than a complete reflection of their own skill, but the high level of both players heading into this game is something rarely seen in a game of this magnitude.

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The Cardinals steamrolled opponents in September en route to one of the biggest comebacks in baseball history. Trailing the Braves in the wild card standings by ten and a half games on August 24, they won 23 of 32 games, capturing a playoff berth on September 28, 2011: a date which will live in baseball insanity.

The Phillies, meanwhile, coasted through most of the regular season. Their 102-60 record marked a new franchise best, and that win total would have been even shinier if not for an eight-game losing streak directly after clinching in mid-September.

The regular season doesn’t matter anymore. Sure, the Phillies have home field advantage throughout the post-season — especially since the NL won the All Star Game — but playoff series are dramatic because anything can happen. The Phillies are a better team on paper, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Cardinals advance to the championship series. The last time a team as hot as the Redbirds made the playoffs, the 2007 Rockies won a one-game playoff against the Padres and subsequently swept the Phillies out of the division series. That Rockies team went to the World Series. Everything clicked at the end of the month and they were able to parlay that late success into playoff victories.

The Phillies lost the second game of that division series primarily because reliever Kyle Lohse served up a grand slam to Kaz Matsui. Lohse was recently named the series opening starter for the Cardinals, adding another parallel. Matt Holliday now plays for the Cardinals, adding even another parallel. But unlike that series, where the 2007 Phillies were successful almost solely due to offensive exploits, this version of the team is built much differently, and forms a much more formidable foe. Here are the major takeaways to get you ready for this potentially very entertaining division series.

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The San Francisco Giants have been in a a funk lately, turning a half-game lead in the division on August 9 to a three and a half game deficit in a mere seven days. Their pitching hasn’t been bad, but at some point the sheer lack of offense was bound to catch up with them. On Monday, Scott Miller of CBS Sports tweeted that no team had made the playoffs averaging fewer than four runs scored per game since the 1988 Dodgers.

At the time, the Giants were averaging 3.43 runs per contest. While they were looking up at the Diamondbacks in the standings and not technically in the playoffs, Miller’s point remained valid. If they climb back atop the division, the Giants could conceivably become one of the lowest scoring teams in history to make the playoffs if their offensive struggles persist. But would they be the lowest scoring team to make the playoffs?

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Episode Fifty
In which the panel, like Rintrah, roars and shakes its fires.

Headlines
Unfettered Vitriol (Part One Million)
The Psychology of the Ron Washington
Cliff Lee and the Future: Two Immovable Forces
… and other startling declarations!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matt Klaassen, Resident Philosocator
Joe Pawl, Our Man in NYC

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 35 min play time.)

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Episode Forty-Nine
In which the panel is invective-ridden and error-laden.

Headlines
New York/Philly Rule, Minnesota/Cincinnati Drool
Roy Halladay vs. Tim Lincecum vs. Cliff Lee
Crippling Self-Doubt: Discuss
… and other pathos-inducing contretemps!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matt Klaassen, Resident Philosocator
Joe Pawl, Our Man in NYC

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 35 min play time.)

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Episode Forty-Eight
In which the panel is less a panel and more of cage match.

Headlines
Playoff Previews, Players

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matt Klaassen, Resident Philosocator

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 30 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Entering yesterday’s Game Five between the Phillies and Rays, Cole Hamels had pitched brilliantly in four straight post-season starts, and could have become the first pitcher in the Wild Card era to win all five of his playoff starts. Due to the nasty weather conditions, it is unlikely for him to reach this feat, but he could still pull it off if the Phillies take the lead in the bottom of the sixth inning and hold on for the victory. Sure, it would be quite the odd win, but regardless of whether or not he records a decision, his post-season has been extremely stellar.

In five starts, he scattered 23 hits over 35 innings, walking 9, striking out 30, and surrendering just two home runs. All told, he produced a 1.80 ERA, 3.33 K/BB, 0.91 WHIP, and a 2.92 FIP. While he has pitched beautifully and basically provided a guarantee that the Phillies would win or, at the very least, stay in the ballgame, he is not alone in post-season dominance this decade. From 2000-2007, I found five other post-seasons that either matched or surpassed Hamels in 2008.

In 2001, we saw a pair of amazing performances from the Diamondbacks dynamic duo of Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. In six starts, Schilling posted the following: 48.1 IP, 25 H, 3 HR, 6 BB, 56 K. Those numbers resulted in a miniscule 1.12 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, a 9.33 K/BB, and a 1.98 FIP. Teammate Johnson appeared in six games, five of which were starts, putting together the following line: 41.1 IP, 25 H, 2 HR, 8 BB, 47 K. His 5.88 K/BB is fantastic but actually pales in comparison to Schilling’s, as do his 1.52 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. His FIP of 2.06 comes strikingly close, however. It is no wonder the Diamondbacks were able to win the World Series.

In 2003, Andy Pettitte put together a tremendous line, even though the Yankees ended up losing the World Series to the Florida Marlins. Pettitte, in five starts, produced a 2.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.09 K/BB, and 3.24 FIP. Josh Beckett, then a member of the series winning Marlins, put together even better post-season numbers: a 2.11 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, 3.92 K/BB, and 2.67 FIP in 42.2 innings assembled over five starts.

Beckett further cemented himself as arguably the best playoff pitcher in recent history, if not ever, with his line in 2007 as a member of the Red Sox: 4 GS, 30 IP, 19 H, 4 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 35 K. Yes, Beckett produced a K/BB of 17.50, almost doubling Schilling’s overly impressive ratio from 2001. Beckett posted a 1.20 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, and an astounding 1.42 FIP, which is actually lower than that of others before adding the 3-3.20 ERA normalizing number. Hamels may have just put the finishing touches on a brilliant post-season, but let’s not forget that there have been other absolutely tremendous performances. Which do you think was the best? Beckett in 2007, or Schilling in 2001?

While I planned on just watching the Phillies-Brewers game yesterday, all three games ended up being absorbed by my eyes. The stress of watching the Phillies almost give the game back to the Brewers subsided when I got the chance to watch the Cubs-Dodgers game, one in which I vested no personal interest. Then, when I could not fall asleep, I found myself really into a pitcher’s duel between Jon Lester and John Lackey, a very fun Red Sox-Angels game. There were a few things I noticed in these games, both good and bad, that merited some discussion. We’ll start with the Phillies-Brewers game.

Two things stood out for me in this game. First, the Phillies offense was really stifled by Mitch Stetter and Carlos Villanueva. They had trouble hitting Yovani Gallardo, as well, and only scored three runs due to fielding blunders by the Brewers and Gallardo’s early wildness. Managing four hits against Gallardo/Stetter/Villanueva/Parra/Mota does not instill massive confidence in myself heading into a Game Two against CC Sabathia. Secondly, why oh why did Cole Hamels come out of the game?

I am not going to rail on Charlie Manuel for making this decision because Brad Lidge had a terrific year, but Hamels had thrown just 101 pitches, after needing just 18 total to get through the 7th and 8th innings. It may have been the fourth time through the order, but this just felt like a move Manuel made because it was “the right thing to do” or the proper and traditional way to manage. The Phillies did hang on to win the game, but Lidge made it very interesting and because he needed so many pitches to escape the ninth inning, his availability tonight, if needbe, is questionable. As my brother pointed out at Phanatic Phollow Up, there were many more cons than pros to removing Hamels.

Next up, Cubs-Dodgers. I know the announcers mentioned this, but boy did that Wrigley Field crowd sound dead. Yes, Ryan Dempster had the best season of his career this year, but wasn’t the point of acquiring Rich Harden to be your ace? As MGL pointed out at The Book Blog, a healthy Harden is much better than Dempster, but Lou was likely swayed by Dempster’s success at home this year. Dempster didn’t seem to have “it” working last night, but the walks through the first four innings were interspersed and not all at one juncture, so the total kind of crept up. In that fifth inning, though, with Marshall warming up and Dempster clearly not possessing his best stuff, perhaps it would have been prudent to have the lefty face James Loney. Hindsight is 20/20 but it just seemed like Lou had too much unmerited faith in Dempster yesterday.

Also, Cubs fans get stereotyped as fairweather and ignorant from time to time, but for them to applaud Greg Maddux as he made his way to the mound to the ninth inning, while they trailed 7-2, was really nice to see. I felt the same way earlier in the season, when Maddux was with the Padres, and he faced Cole Hamels at Citizens Bank Park. Maddux had pitched quite well and when he left, the Phillies crowd gave him a standing ovation. Fanbases may be stereotyped, and the stereotypes may be there for good reason, but this was just very nice to see.

Lastly, the play everyone will talk about in the Angels-Red Sox game is Vladimir Guerrero‘s attempt at an extra base on Torii Hunter‘s bloop over Kevin Youkilis’s head. My immediate reaction to that play was – “Wow, Youk got that ball so quickly!” It is very easy to see the play develop and question why Guerrero, a slower runner, would even make that attempt, but if that same play occurs ten times, I would wager Youkilis gets the ball that quickly once. That is the type of play where the ball kicks around, or the first- and second-baseman struggle to recover, allowing a first and third situation. Guerrero saw the ball go over his head, figured this would happen, and went for third. I cannot fault him at all. It wasn’t as if Mark Teixeira was on deck. First and third for Howie Kendrick is much more appealing than first and second.

Overall, a pretty exciting first day of playoff baseball with two road teams taking game one. For Thursday, we have James Shields vs. Javier Vazquez at 2:30, Brett Myers vs. CC Sabathia at 6 PM, and Chad Billingsley vs. Carlos Zambrano at 9:30 PM.