It’s been a long offseason, one that has felt all the more drawn out because a number of high-profile free agents, including three of the top five in our rankings, remain unsigned. But spring training has begun in earnest and the thwack of baseballs hitting gloves has started to punctuate the air in Arizona and Florida. These power rankings give us a snapshot of where each team stands, though a lot could change between now and Opening Day.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the most important components of a team — its offense (wRC+) and its pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I’ve removed defense from the calculations during the offseason since defensive projections aren’t the most reliable. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections, which now include both the 2024 ZiPS projections and the 2024 Steamer projections. The result is a power ranking, presented in tiers below.

The Braves spent a lot of effort this offseason solidifying their place atop the NL pecking order. With an already strong roster, they were surprisingly busy this winter, making nine different trades, the majority of which looked more like an accounting ledger than a major league transaction record. In the end, they bolstered their pitching staff by adding Chris Sale and a handful of bullpen arms and filled the lone hole in their lineup with the mercurial Jarred Kelenic. They’re projected to win five more games than the Dodgers and should have no trouble running the table in the NL East again this year.

The Dodgers did all they could this offseason to try and topple the Braves from the top of the projected standings, signing two Japanese superstars, trading for Tyler Glasnow, and re-signing their franchise talisman. Despite all the money they’ve spent on revitalizing their once-depleted starting rotation, there’s still plenty of risk dragging their projection down. Their talent is undeniable, but it’s unclear how much of it will be healthy and available for the entire season.

The Astros remain the class of the American League despite a pretty quiet offseason. They addressed their biggest pitching need last summer when they reacquired Justin Verlander, though it remains to be seen how long he can fight off Father Time. Houston’s one big addition this offseason was to bring in Josh Hader to strengthen an already elite bullpen and help shorten games even further. The Astros also signed Jose Altuve, the face of their franchise, to a five-year extension that should keep him in Houston through the end of his career. With the rest of the AL playoff picture looking very crowded right now, the Astros stand above the fray as preseason favorites.

This tier really exposes the stark differences between the top teams in the American League versus that same group in the National League, which is not represented here. Even though the Astros are listed in the tier above, all six of the teams in this second tier could wind up being the best team in the AL by the end of the season, and this tier doesn’t even include the reigning World Series champions. It would be hard to imagine any of the next best teams in the NL surpassing the Braves or Dodgers this year. Hopefully that means the AL playoff picture will be crowded and exciting.

The Yankees entered this offseason at a bit of crossroads. Their 2023 season was derailed by injuries to their biggest stars, and they still have far too much money tied up in guys in the decline phase of their careers. They really needed to make a splash to keep up with the rest of the teams in the AL East. And make a splash they did. The one-two punch of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto rivals that of any other team in baseball, and they also managed to add depth in the outfield, with Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham, and the rotation, with Marcus Stroman. They’ve emerged as the slight favorites in their very competitive division.

The Rays traded Glasnow from their rotation, they won’t have Wander Franco in their lineup, and they’re still projected to finish second in the AL East with 86 wins. Not many other teams in baseball could survive losing two of their top players, much less project to be nearly as competitive. The depth of their roster is unrivaled, giving them plenty of leeway when the inevitable roster attrition begins to take its toll during the season. Unfortunately, their potential ceiling is a little lower without those same top contributors, making their chances of winning the division a little tougher.

The Twins, who cruised to a division title last year, look like they have a clear path to repeat. They still managed to improve their pitching staff and alleviate their infield logjam, even as they cut payroll. Despite the rosy projections, it still feels like the success of their season will hinge on the health of Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis. If that trio is producing regularly, their lineup should be formidable. If not… well, the depth behind those three is rather lackluster.

For a brief moment, it looked like the Blue Jays had pulled off the heist of the offseason — and it involved sushi restaurants, flight trackers, and Canadian billionaires. Hearts across the north were broken when Shohei Ohtani did not step off that private jet in Toronto, and clothes rended asunder when he announced he’d be signing with the Dodgers a few hours later. Anything else the Jays did this offseason had to compete with that disappointment, which is why adding a couple of defense-first players and a 39-year-old designated hitter didn’t exactly generate a ton of excitement.

It was a long and winding road, and some of the individual moves didn’t necessarily make much sense in a vacuum, but the Mariners managed to red paper clip their way into a roster that looks roughly as talented as their squads from the past three seasons. Thanks to a young and talented pitching staff, Seattle is projected to have the best run prevention unit in baseball. That strength alone gives them a shot at toppling the Astros for the top spot in their division. Capping off their revamped lineup with Jorge Polanco gives their offense another middle-of-the-order hitter to help support Julio Rodríguez. They could use one more bat to lengthen their lineup, but that doesn’t seem likely.

After breaking out of their long rebuilding cycle with the AL’s best record last year, the Orioles have had an eventful offseason, though it took a while for the dominos to drop. As the calendar flipped to February, they traded for Corbin Burnes to give them an ace to lead their starting rotation. The very next day, news broke that John Angelos had agreed to sell the team to an investment group led by David Rubenstein. Hopefully, the change brings increased investment to the team, though it’ll probably take a while for those effects to be seen. Meanwhile, the roster looks as good as it did last year and Baltimore still has plenty of young talent on the cusp of making an impact in the big leagues.

The Red Sox don’t have a bad roster — and they were right to bring in Lucas Giolito, Tyler O’Neill, and Vaughn Grissom as complimentary pieces — but they don’t have a great one, either. The problem is that Boston plays in a division with four of the six teams in Tier Two, so it’s not enough to have a roster that is just OK. The Red Sox seem to be trying to straddle that awkward line between building toward the future and maintaining a roster that could luck into a Wild Card spot if enough things break their way.

The Diamondbacks have quietly had a strong offseason to support the squad that surprisingly won the NL pennant last year. They brought in Eduardo Rodriguez to bolster the starting rotation, re-signed Lourdes Gurriel Jr., traded for Eugenio Suárez, and signed Joc Pederson. They’re not splashy moves, but they do fill in some of the cracks that were exposed in the World Series once their good fortune ran out. They won’t challenge the Dodgers for the NL West crown, but they should be right in the thick of the Wild Card race again this season.

You can quibble about who they brought in, but the Cardinals had one job this offseason and they went right after it, signing Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson to revamp their starting pitching. Those three should be better than the patchwork staff that derailed St. Louis last season. Combined with a strong offensive core and solid bullpen, an improved rotation should be enough for the Cardinals to make last year a one-year blip rather than the start of a long decline.

By re-signing Aaron Nola and calling it an offseason, the Phillies have indicated they’re satisfied with running back the same group that has been so successful over the past two seasons. That’s not a terrible place to be in — back-to-back NLCS appearances is nothing to sneeze at — but it’s also not very aspirational. Of course, it’s hard to have higher aspirations when you have to chase down the Braves in the NL East, so another Wild Card berth will have to do.

It’s weird to see the Rangers this low in the rankings, but they’ve had a relatively quiet offseason for a team that just won a World Series. That said, they can look forward to their lineup continuing to be one of the league’s best, with a full season of Evan Carter and the eventual debut of Wyatt Langford. The problem is their pitching staff. Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Tyler Mahle are all expected to return from their respective injuries during the second half of the season. That should give them a formidable playoff rotation should they reach the postseason again, but the onus is on their healthy starters to hold down the fort for the first three months of the season.

There are five NL teams with projections sitting around .500 in this tier, with two more in the tier below, and they’ll all be fighting over one or two Wild Card spots. That should make for a dramatic race, though any one of those teams could begin to separate themselves from the pack by signing any of the free agents still on the market.

The Marlins have been very quiet this offseason — they’re the only remaining team who hasn’t signed a free agent to a major league contract. The moves they have made have been around the margins, bringing in some additional depth and utility types. Once again, they’re going to rely on their young and dynamic pitching staff to carry the load. It worked for them last year, though they benefited from some historic Pythagorean overperformance.

ZiPS actually likes Cleveland’s chances of challenging Minnesota in the AL Central, projecting the two teams to finish with the same record. That’s interesting, considering the Guardians enter this season with mostly the same players as last year’s team that missed the playoffs. But they’ve got a talented pitching staff that could carry them, and they’ll be calling on a couple of their prospects — Brayan Rocchio and Kyle Manzardo — to improve their lineup. It might not be enough, but Cleveland has the potential here to make for an interesting division race if things break right.

Boy, does the Brewers roster look different without Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff leading their rotation. In a wide open division, Milwaukee has opted to try and build toward the future while still hoping for a competitive season in the present. In addition to top prospect Jackson Chourio, the Brewers have a bunch of other exciting youngsters who could make an impact in the big leagues this year. It wouldn’t surprise me to see them right in the thick of the playoff race.

The Cubs stayed competitive until the final week of last season, but they’ve failed to address the big hole on their roster that opened when Cody Bellinger hit free agency. They did sign Shōta Imanaga, which should give them a boost to their starting rotation, and they also picked up Michael Busch from the Dodgers in a savvy little trade. There’s still time to re-sign Bellinger, but until they do, they look like they’re a hair behind the Cardinals in the NL Central.

The Giants finally added some oomph to their lineup by signing Jorge Soler to a three-year deal earlier this week. Along with newcomer Jung Hoo Lee, San Francisco has brought in two solid offensive players to bolster its lineup. The Giants have capable starters across every position, and they have some decent depth, but they still lack the upside to push their projection above .500. They could go out and sign Blake Snell, which would certainly help, but they’re clearly not good enough to challenge the Dodgers for the division. They’ll be stuck fighting with the other high-variance teams in the NL for those last Wild Card spots.

After the death of owner Peter Seidler and a television contract that was suddenly up-in-the-air, the Padres cut payroll after spending lavishly during recent offseasons. The Juan Soto trade helped solve that issue while also restocking their starting rotation. San Diego still has plenty of talent on the big league roster, and top prospect Jackson Merrill is knocking on the door, but the Padres desperately need another outfielder, even after re-signing Jurickson Profar.

The Tigers have spent this offseason filling in the edges of their roster, with righty starters Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty being the standout acquisitions. They also handed out a big extension to top prospect Colt Keith; he’ll join the collection of young hitters already in the big leagues. If enough things break its way, Detroit could surprise in the weak AL Central. However, it’s more likely that the Tigers are another year away from the end of their rebuild.

The Reds have the enviable problem of having too many young infielders for not enough spots, and manager David Bell will have to figure out how to get them all regular at-bats while also juggling their development when the inevitable growing pains come along. Even with all that position player talent and the additions of Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez, the projections peg Cincinnati to be right around where it finished last year. That’s not terrible, considering the Reds were in the playoff conversation right up until the last weekend of the season, but they’ll need to get a lot from their youngsters to rise above their current projections.

The Mets fell the furthest of any team in these rankings over the offseason. You get the sense that this year is being treated as an evaluation year by their new president of baseball operations David Stearns as he begins to put his stamp on the organization. There’s still talent on this roster, though. If some of their veterans return to form and Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty produce, the Mets could challenge for a Wild Card spot.

If the Mets are stuck in the limbo of not rebuilding yet, the Angels are even further out in the cold. They realized they couldn’t replace the production of a unicorn like Shohei Ohtani, so they didn’t try to do that this offseason. Instead, they brought in a pile of relievers and are hoping for a return to health from all of their key contributors on offense. Even if Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Taylor Ward all play full seasons, that still won’t be enough to compete in the crowded AL Wild Card race, and there aren’t many reinforcements coming up through their farm system, either.

Even though they’ve started to graduate some of their prospects, the Pirates are still a step behind the other teams in their division. Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes look like franchise pillars, but Pittsburgh doesn’t have enough to contend just yet.

After signing Bobby Witt Jr. to a franchise-record extension, the Royals face the difficult task of building a winning roster around him. Signing veteran starters Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to support a beleaguered pitching staff was a good start, but the Royals needed to do more than make incremental moves, and so far, they haven’t. Considering there isn’t much coming through the minor league system, either, Kansas City would probably be better off trading away Wacha and Lugo for prospects during the season to hopefully speed up this rebuild.

The A’s lost 112 games last year, but it’s hard to care about the product they put on the field because of their impending move to Las Vegas. The best thing you can say about Oakland’s roster right now is that it is not projected to be the worst team in the majors. Unfortunately, there’s a serious lack of upside on the big league roster and little high-end talent down on the farm. It’s possible that when (or, at this point, if) the A’s head to Vegas four years from now, they will still be one of the worst teams in baseball.

You’d think the Rockies would’ve learned a valuable lesson after striking gold with their under-the-radar pickup of Nolan Jones last offseason. But instead of working to find more under-appreciated, talented players who are blocked from getting regular playing time elsewhere, they spent this offseason acting as uninspired as ever. Maybe they expect to see some growth from Ezequiel Tovar and healthy seasons from Kris Bryant and Brendan Rodgers, but there isn’t much else to get excited about on this roster.

It’s a sad state of affairs. The most that White Sox fans can look forward to this season is that their team trades its two best players, Dylan Cease and Luis Robert Jr. for the package of prospects that could form the next great South Siders roster. Until they trade those two, the Sox will likely avoid being the worst team in the majors, but the bottom could fall out very quickly after the deadline.

At the end of this season, the Nationals will be one year closer to seeing the fruits of the Juan Soto trade in the majors. That’s the best that can be said about their roster as it’s currently constructed. Sure, CJ Abrams looks mildly interesting as a breakout candidate, and it isn’t the worst plan to bank on Joey Gallo, Nick Senzel, and Jesse Winker returning to form. But make no mistake, this organization is in a holding pattern until its ownership question is answered.

…

The Mariners and Rays had a busy Friday last week, combining to make three trades involving seven players. Seattle got things started with a three-player swap with the San Francisco Giants, shipping Robbie Ray to the Bay Area in exchange for Mitch Haniger, Anthony DeSclafani, and cash considerations. Then the M’s and the Rays exchanged José Caballero and Luke Raley, before Tampa Bay finished off the day by sending Andrew Kittredge to St. Louis for Richie Palacios. Both the Mariners and Rays dealt from areas of strength to address areas of need, giving both teams greater roster clarity as the offseason moves towards spring training.

Just two years ago, the three players involved in the first trade of the day would have garnered much bigger headlines. In 2021, Ray, Haniger, and DeSclafani combined to accumulate 9.4 WAR, with Ray winning the American League Cy Young award. In the two seasons since then, however, the trio has combined for just 3.3 WAR, largely thanks to a litany of injuries. Ray was completely healthy in 2022, but he wasn’t able to replicate his award-winning performance in his first season in Seattle and then made just a single start in 2023 before needing Tommy John surgery. Haniger has never been a model of health — he’s played just two full seasons in his seven-year career — and missed time with ankle, back, oblique, and forearm injuries the past two seasons. DeSclafani managed just five starts in 2022 thanks to a recurring ankle injury, then wore down towards the end of last year with shoulder fatigue and forearm inflammation. Read the rest of this entry »

The true offseason has yet to begin, as teams have begun their annual housekeeping on their rosters, but the big moves have yet to materialize. That means it’s the perfect time to see how they stack up against each other. Think of these power rankings as a glimpse at which teams are close to being ready for 2023 and which teams might have a lot of work to do before even thinking about next season.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are entirely powered by the 2024 Steamer projections at this point. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

While these offseason power rankings will continue to emulate the format from the past few years, I am working on a new format to the rankings for the 2024 regular season that will hopefully address many of the concerns voiced about the current methodology. I hope to have more to share about what these new rankings will look like in the months ahead. Anyway, to the rankings!

It’s a good sign when the team with the best regular-season record in 2023 is projected to have the best record again the following season. The Braves’ young core is locked up for years, and they look ready to dominate the National League for years to come. They’ve already addressed some needs in their bullpen by re-signing Pierce Johnson and Joe Jiménez, and they’ll likely continue adding to their pitching staff to cover for the loss of Kyle Wright to shoulder surgery. They’ve also got a need for more depth in the outfield. Still, those are small concerns; this roster as it stands would be an easy World Series favorite if the season started today.

The projections will always favor a deep and flexible team like the Rays because their ability to weather the attrition of a long season is easily accounted for in the data. Our current Depth Charts projections have Wander Franco taking the majority of the playing time at shortstop, but the step down to Junior Caminero’s isn’t that drastic. Their pitching staff looks set, with a full season from Tyler Glasnow and the return of Shane Baz hopefully in the cards. They’ll miss the trio of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs, but bringing in Aaron Civale at the trade deadline this year and the emergence of Zack Littell should give them a formidable rotation.

The version of the Astros we saw in 2023 was a diminished one compared to their dominant championship from the year prior, most of which can be attributed to injury woes that plagued them throughout the season. The majority of the core that drove so much of their success in ‘22 will be back next year, but they’ll need to add a bit of depth to their starting rotation. Justin Verlander will be 41 years old in 2024, and there’s no telling what they can expect from Lance McCullers Jr. Read the rest of this entry »

For 25 outs, the Diamondbacks’ plan had worked to perfection. Zac Gallen had worked through five gritty innings, Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte had given Arizona a lead to hand to the bullpen, and the relief corps had weathered a relentless Rangers lineup. As Paul Sewald entered in the ninth inning with a two-run lead, it looked like the Diamondbacks were on the verge of stealing a victory in Game 1 of the World Series. Corey Seager had other plans. On the first pitch he saw from Sewald, Seager launched a one-out, two-run bomb into the right field stands to tie the game at five.

With the game sent to extra innings, the momentum suddenly swung toward the Rangers, whose potent lineup could end the game quickly, even without the benefit of the Manfred Man on second base to start each inning. After a minor threat was quelled in the 10th, who else but Adolis García had the final word, blasting an opposite field, walk-off home run in the 11th to send Globe Life Field into a state of jubilation. Read the rest of this entry »

Cristian Javier had built an impressive postseason resume ahead of Game 7 of the ALCS. Across 12 relief appearances and four starts, he had compiled a 2.08 ERA and 7.5% championship win probability added. His first three starts in the playoffs were particularly impressive; he held the Yankees scoreless on a single hit in last year’s ALCS, was the starting pitcher of the Astros’ combined no-hitter in the World Series, and held the Twins to a single hit in the ALDS this year. His 18 total hits allowed and .123 opponent’s batting average were by far the lowest among any pitcher with more than 40 postseason innings pitched.

With such a strong track record, the Astros had to feel confident handing him the ball on Monday night. But things did not go according to plan, as Javier lasted six batters and recorded just a single out, allowing three runs on four hits and a walk, before getting pulled. It was his worst postseason outing of his career and a big reason why Houston isn’t back in the World Series to defend its championship. Read the rest of this entry »

The rematch of last year’s NLDS between Philadelphia and Atlanta started off the same way it did last October: with a surprising win by the underdog Phillies. They eked out three runs and held the Braves scoreless at home for the first time this year and the first time since August 28, 2021. It was also the Phillies’ seventh consecutive win in the opening game of a postseason series, putting them in the driver’s seat in the five-game series — again.

The biggest weakness of the Philadelphia roster that reached the World Series last year was their bullpen. But the Phillies quietly led all of baseball in pitching WAR this season thanks to a fantastic rotation and a much improved relief corps, with their ‘pen improving its adjusted ERA from 105 to 81. With Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola spent during the Wild Card round, the Phillies turned to Ranger Suárez to make the start in Game 1; he turned in a solid effort, lasting 3.2 innings and allowing just three baserunners while striking out four. When he ran into some trouble in the fourth inning, manager Rob Thomson used a quick hook on his starter and handed the game over to his bullpen. Six relievers went on to combine for 5.1 scoreless innings in an impressive display from the team’s most improved unit:

Instead of a dominating performance marked by tons of strikeouts, the Phillies were perfectly satisfied to allow Atlanta to aggressively put the ball in play. No team fared better than the Braves when making contact this year — they led baseball in both wOBA and expected wOBA on contact — but thanks to some phenomenal defense and a healthy dose of contact management, they were frustrated all night long. Read the rest of this entry »

After nearly two decades of postseason futility, the Minnesota Twins not only won a playoff game, they advanced to the next round for the first time since 2002. Their reward? Facing the Houston Astros, who have held a firm grip on the American League over the last six years, reaching the ALCS in each of those seasons to go along with two championships and another pair of AL pennants to boot. On paper, this seems like a classic David versus Goliath matchup, but there are key distinctions between the clubs that should make this a very entertaining series:

The Twins won a weak AL Central with relative ease thanks to one of the best starting rotations in baseball. That pitching staff is a big reason why they’re not simply the token representative from their division but a real threat to make a deep run into the postseason. They might not have quite the same star power of some of the other contenders in the American League, but there are few holes on their roster and it seems like they’re peaking at the right time. Read the rest of this entry »

After missing out on the postseason last year, breaking a four-year streak, the Brewers are back in the playoffs this year. They’ve been the model of consistency over this past half decade; they are the only other team apart from the Astros and Dodgers to have won at least 86 games in each of the last six full seasons. But for all that regular season success, they’ve only won one postseason series during this stretch, a Division Series back in 2018. They have one of the strongest run prevention units in baseball and are hoping that will carry them deep into October.

Milwaukee’s first-round opponent, the Diamondbacks, will be making their first playoff appearance since 2017. They’re breaking out of a long rebuilding cycle a little ahead of schedule thanks to the phenomenal rookie campaign of Corbin Carroll. On paper, they’re significant underdogs when compared to the dominant arms the Brewers can bring to bear, but they’ve got enough young talent to make some noise as a surprise contender:

Read the rest of this entry »

The race to the playoffs provided plenty of drama over the past month. The battle for a Wild Card spot ended up coming down to the wire in both leagues, and the AL West wasn’t completely wrapped up until the final day of the season. But we’ve finally made it to the main event, where anything can happen and underdogs can topple giants. Here’s a look at the 12 teams in the playoffs and how they stack up against each other.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. Since regular season records don’t matter in the playoffs, I’ve removed the factors for win percentage and expected win percentage from the calculations. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve made it to the final week of the season, and both Wild Card races are still up in the air. Unfortunately, MLB’s expanded postseason field has led to the elimination of tiebreaker games in favor of tiebreaker mathematics. So while we’re barreling towards a dramatic finish in both those playoff races, the regular season will be over for good on Sunday. The next edition of these power rankings will evaluate the playoff field next week.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

All the Braves needed to do over these last few weeks of the season was get to the postseason healthy and ready to make a deep run in October, but that plan has begun to unravel a bit. Last week, they placed both Max Fried and Charlie Morton on the IL, though the former should be ready for the NLDS since his injury is just a minor blister issue. Still, losing one of their best starters in Morton isn’t ideal as they head into the playoffs. In more encouraging news, Ronald Acuña Jr. became the fifth player to join the 40–40 club on Friday and is now the only member of the 40–50 and 40–60 clubs; he could even hit the 40–70 mark this week.

The Dodgers put the first nail in the Giants’ coffin, winning three of four against them last weekend. They’ve got a first-round bye locked up but probably won’t be able to chase down the Braves for the best record in baseball during this final week of the season. They’ll spend that time figuring out their playoff rotation and making sure everyone gets to the postseason healthy. To that end, it was encouraging to see Clayton Kershaw spin five shutout innings on Saturday, his second shutout performance in a row, coming off his shoulder injury.

After an up-and-down start to the month, the Rangers have now won five straight, including three against the Mariners last weekend. Injuries have thinned out their pitching staff, but they’ve finally gotten healthy on offense, activating both Adolis García and Josh Jung off the IL last week. Even with the lineup fully stocked, their bullpen may still be their downfall; Texas’ relievers have allowed 65 runs to score in September, tied for second most this month behind the Braves.

With the Rangers taking control of the AL West and the Blue Jays gaining ground in the AL Wild Card race, it seems like the battle over the final Wild Card spot will come down to the Mariners and Astros, both of whom were swept in three games last weekend. Neither team has been playing all that well this month, with nearly identical records (8–13 for Houston and 8–14 for Seattle), and now they’ll face each other three times in Seattle to start this week.

The Orioles suffered through three bullpen meltdowns last week, though they managed a series win in Houston and a split of a four-game series in Cleveland. They’re still in command of the AL East and should enter the playoffs as the top seed. Still, their bullpen hasn’t been as strong since losing Félix Bautista, their All-Star closer; since he went on the IL, Baltimore’s relievers have allowed 50 runs, 16th in the majors. More worrying is their collective strikeout rate, which has fallen to just 17.2% during that stretch. If the O’s want to make a deep run into October, they need their relief corps firing on all cylinders.

The Phillies survived their final gauntlet before the end of the season last week, winning two of three against the Braves and then sweeping the Mets in four games. That all but assures their entry into the postseason as the top Wild Card in the NL. Nick Castellanos blasted five home runs last week, and Bryce Harper chipped in three of his own. They’ve been overshadowed by some of the other powerhouses in the NL and spent a lot of the first half of the season floundering with Harper and Trea Turner scuffling, but they’ve come on strong during the second half of the season.

With a particularly tough schedule during the final week of the season, the Cubs desperately needed some wins against the Rockies last weekend to remain in the NL Wild Card race. They wound up sweeping them in three games and now head into their final six games against the Braves and Brewers tied with the Diamondbacks and a game ahead of the Marlins. Meanwhile, Miami has much easier opponents left on the schedule, though the Marlins will play all six remaining games on the road in New York and Pittsburgh.

That final NL Wild Card spot will almost certainly come down to the Cubs or the Marlins, but the Reds, Giants, and Padres have yet to be eliminated. Chicago’s good fortune last weekend put a damper on the potential miracle run the Padres appeared to be making over the last few weeks. San Diego and San Francisco enter this week tied in the standings, and a lot of things need to go their way if either team is going to sneak into the playoffs. It’s likely too little, too late for the Padres, but they’ve finally been playing up to the level of talent on their roster over the last few weeks. Unfortunately, their record in extra innings games dropped to 0–12 on Saturday, which snapped their eight-game win streak.

The Yankees have some real soul searching to do this offseason, but at least they might have figured out a piece of their starting rotation. Michael King has been utterly dominant since moving out of the bullpen, allowing no more than two runs in any of his seven starts this year. With injuries curtailing the production of many of their other starters this year, King’s emergence has been a huge positive sign to end a disappointing season.

That the Reds even have a shot at sneaking into the playoffs this late in the season has to be seen as a huge success after tearing everything down last year. And while Elly De La Cruz has really struggled with prolonged exposure to big league pitching, Cincinnati has plenty of other youngsters who are making an impact and who should form the core of a potent roster for years to come. The Reds have games against the Guardians and Cardinals this week and need a lot of help elsewhere in the standings to make things interesting for the Cubs and Marlins.

The Royals are ending the season on an incredibly high note; they’ve won 10 of their last 11 games, including five of six from the Astros, and thanks to late-season breakouts from Cole Ragans and Nelson Velázquez, they can head into next year with some hope for the future. Bobby Witt Jr. proved he was the core piece they could build around this year; all of a sudden, there’s some forward momentum for an organization that’s been stuck in reverse for too long.

…