We’re approaching the quarter mark of the regular season and there’s still a large group of teams that had high expectations heading into the season and have largely disappointed so far. A few of the surprise teams have continued to play well too, but we’re getting to the point where clubs are ready to really evaluate how their roster is shaping up for the summer.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

For the first time this season, the Rays looked somewhat beatable. They lost a three-game series to the Orioles in Baltimore in which both teams scored six total runs, then battled the Yankees to a series split in New York over the weekend. But those losses last week pale in comparison to the new injury woes they’re facing. After losing Jeffrey Springs earlier this year, Drew Rasmussen has joined him on the 60-day injured list with an ominous elbow injury. Then, on Sunday, Yandy Díaz was removed from the game after suffering a groin injury running the bases. Losing your best hitter is never a good thing, but at least Tampa Bay has the depth to cover for Díaz, and Tyler Glasnow is slowly making his way through his rehab process to fill a hole in the rotation. All those wins the Rays have banked to start the season will definitely come in handy if they end up having trouble overcoming the losses of these key players. Read the rest of this entry »

The book on Yandy Díaz has already been written. An excellent eye at the plate paired with great bat-to-ball skills has allowed him to post fantastic strikeout and walk rates throughout his career; he was one of six qualified batters who walked more than they struck out last year. When he puts the ball in play, he hits it harder than nearly anyone else in baseball, though his extremely high groundball rate has been a problem. In 2022, all those skills coalesced into a career-high 146 wRC+ and 3.8 WAR.

The book on Díaz has yet to be written. His elite plate discipline is still present, but he’s already matched his home run total from last year in just 32 games; he’s on pace to launch more than 40 this year, which would blow away his previous career high of 14 in 2019. On April 18, he hit the longest home run of his career, a 440-foot blast. His outstanding hard-hit rate has increased up to 56.4%, and his barrel rate has increased by nine points, fueling a .281 ISO and a 192 wRC+, all career-bests. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week’s darlings are this week’s dogs, as the Pirates and Orioles slide down in the rankings. The Rays continue to run roughshod over the American League, and the Braves have started to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field in the National League.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays keep chugging along atop the American League standings with five wins in six games last week, steamrolling the Pirates and winning a hard-fought series against the Yankees over the weekend. So far, they’re outpacing the 2001 Mariners and are showing no signs of letting up on the gas. Even if they come back down to Earth a bit this summer, these banked wins give them a huge margin over their AL East competitors.

The Braves also continue to cruise, with six wins in eight games last week: a split doubleheader against the Mets, a sweep of the Marlins, and a series win over the Orioles. Marquee offseason acquisition Sean Murphy is crushing the ball, leading an offense that’s scored the second most runs in the NL. Their schedule doesn’t let up either; they’ve got dates with the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, Mariners, Dodgers, and Phillies lined up over the next three weeks. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a month into the season and have seen some pretty big swings in the power rankings with plenty of surprises. Here’s how everything stands as we head into the second month of the season.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After being shut out in back-to-back games and losing their first series of the year to the Astros early last week, the Rays took out all their frustrations on the hapless White Sox, scoring 38 runs in their four-game series. An ugly seven-run meltdown in the ninth by Tampa Bay’s bullpen on Sunday was the only thing keeping them from a sweep over the weekend. That aside, the Rays are leading the league in nearly every significant offensive category; it’s hard not to when Randy Arozarena is doing everything right and Wander Franco has seemingly made the leap to superstardom. Amazingly enough, Rays position players have produced almost double the WAR as the next highest team: 10.9 to the Rangers’ 5.5.

The Pirates enter May with the best record in the National League, something no one could have predicted a month ago. They started off the week with a series win against the Dodgers, then signed their best player, Bryan Reynolds, to an eight-year extension. For the first time in a while, Pittsburgh is playing competitive baseball, and a lot of the underlying metrics believe in this surprising hot start. The Bucs will face a tough challenge to start the month with a series in Tampa Bay followed by a date with the Blue Jays at home. Read the rest of this entry »

Bryson Stott began this season with a 17-game hit streak, marking a new Phillies franchise record to start a season. Eleven of those games were multi-hit efforts, culminating in 29 hits across his first 81 plate appearances. He’s added a handful of hits since his streak ended on April 18 and his overall line now stands at .339/.368/.459, good for a 126 wRC+. His early season success has been one of the few bright spots for the Phillies as they deal with a a variety of woes.

While Stott’s hot start is being at least partially driven by some fortunate results when he has put the ball in play — his BABIP currently stands at .417 — his success is also the culmination of a number of adjustments he’s made since making the Opening Day roster as a rookie last year. His initial exposure to the big leagues didn’t go very well. He collected just four hits across 31 plate appearances and was demoted to Triple-A on April 20 after playing in just nine games in the majors. Upon getting recalled on May 8, he continued to struggle until making an adjustment to his swing. Read the rest of this entry »

It was a week of highs and lows as the Rays continued to dominate early this season while the A’s took their first of many steps out of Oakland. Just a reminder that because we’re still so early in the season, we’ll see some pretty wild swings in the rankings below as teams continue to sort themselves out.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays continued their hot start to the season, winning five of their six games last week; they still haven’t lost a game at home this year. The amount of depth on their roster means that even when their fantastic middle infield duo, Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe, starts to struggle — they collected just six hits between them last week — there’s someone like Harold Ramírez hitting instead (nine hits, two home runs). They’ll face a tough challenge in a surging Astros ballclub this week.

The Rangers vaulted themselves into this top tier by beating up on the Royals and A’s last week. So far, they’ve weathered the loss of Corey Seager to a hamstring injury behind the hot bats of Marcus Semien, Adolis García, and Jonah Heim. They’re also getting plenty of help from their pitching staff. Their rotation is fully healthy; Jacob deGrom had an injury scare on Monday after leaving his start after just four innings with a wrist issue but looked dominant against the A’s. But the biggest surprise has been their bullpen, which has the third-lowest ERA in the majors.

It’s shocking to see three NL Central clubs in this tier but not the Cardinals. The hot starts of the Brewers, Cubs, and Pirates are backed up by the underlying data: All three teams are hitting well, pitching well, and possess a run differential of at least +25. Cody Bellinger exacted some revenge against his former team, blasting two home runs off Dodgers pitching over the weekend, and Drew Smyly came within six outs of throwing a perfect game against Los Angeles on Friday.

While the Cubs and Brewers have looked impressive, the Pirates are turning heads. They swept the Rockies in Colorado and the Reds at home, allowing no more than three runs in any of their seven games last week, and now sit atop the division. Led by David Bednar, their bullpen has been lights out, while their rotation has gotten breakout performances from Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo. They’ve got a tough schedule ahead with dates against the Dodgers, Rays, and Blue Jays over the next two weeks. We’ll see if they’re up to the challenge.

The Astros seem to have broken out of their funk, winning two of three from the Blue Jays and sweeping the Braves in Atlanta last week. They’re still missing Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Lance McCullers Jr., and José Abreu isn’t hitting for power, but they’ve had unexpected contributions up and down their lineup, like Mauricio Dubón, who is filling in for Altuve at second base admirably with a 108 wRC+ and solid defense. Houston’s next task: slow down the Rays this week.

The Mets just wrapped up a 7–3 West Coast road trip, sweeping the A’s, winning two of three from the Dodgers, and splitting four games with the Giants. Despite that successful California swing, they couldn’t avoid stepping on their own toes. Max Scherzer was ejected from his start on Thursday after violating the sticky stuff prohibitions and accepted his 10-game suspension despite maintaining his innocence, but his absence puts New York in a bit of a precarious position. The rotation is already missing Justin Verlander, Carlos Carrasco, and José Quintana; the team will need to call up someone to take Scherzer’s place for the next two weeks.

There was a fleeting glimpse of what the Angels could be on Sunday afternoon. Losing to the Royals 2–1 entering the sixth inning, Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, and Shohei Ohtani launched back-to-back-to-back home runs to put Los Angeles ahead for good. There’s been very little of that kind of offense for the Angels this year; Trout is crushing the ball like usual, but Ohtani has been much better on the mound than at the plate, and Ward had been mired in a slump. Hunter Renfroe has been very good too, but the rest of the lineup just hasn’t carried its weight, and now it’ll be without Logan O’Hoppe for multiple months after he injured his shoulder.

The Twins locked up the most impressive member of their major league-best starting rotation last Monday, signing Pablo López to a four-year deal. Alongside hot starts from Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan, they have enjoyed some phenomenal performances from their starters. Unfortunately, their offense has yet to start clicking despite a bounce back from Joey Gallo. Carlos Correa is off to a particularly slow start, and Byron Buxton hasn’t tapped into the prodigious power he displayed last year. They did just activate Jorge Polanco off the IL and Alex Kirilloff shouldn’t be far behind. Perhaps those two will provide the spark to build some distance in the AL Central standings.

After allowing seven runs in three innings, ballooning his ERA up to 10.26, the Diamondbacks designated Madison Bumgarner for assignment on Thursday. They’re eating the remaining $34 million owed to him over the next two years, but his deteriorating performance was too harmful to a team that’s looking to turn a corner this year. Arizona was leading the NL West for most of last week until losing three of four to the Padres over the weekend. Zac Gallen, though, is putting together another long scoreless streak, running it to 21.2 innings after his start on Friday night, and the D-Backs have got a number of young pitching prospects in the high minors they could call on to replace Bumgarner.

The Giants have struggled through a rough start to the season despite a decent run differential. A pair of walk-off losses in Detroit were unfortunate, and they’ve only won a single series this year. But they’re getting good performances from players like LaMonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada, and Mitch Haniger, one of their key offseason acquisitions, is close to making his season debut. They also signed Logan Webb to a five-year extension last Friday, a significant vote of confidence in his ability to lead the pitching staff.

The vibes are rough on the South Side of Chicago. The White Sox haven’t won a series this year and were just swept by the Rays over the weekend, including two ugly walk-off losses. Things aren’t going to get any easier either with a trip to Toronto this week before another series against the Rays and then the Twins after that. With Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada still on the IL, the offense has had trouble getting started, but Chicago’s biggest problem has been a pitching staff that’s allowed the second most runs in the American League.

It feels cruel to continue to highlight the woes of the Athletics in this space, but they’ve played historically bad baseball. To make matters even worse, their ownership group announced that it had signed a binding agreement to purchase land in Las Vegas for a new stadium. There’s still so much up in the air before the franchise packs its bags for the desert, but this is the first concrete step that owner John Fisher and president Dave Kaval have made toward moving the team away from Oakland. It’s a dark time to be an A’s fan.

…

The 2023 season is underway and we’ve already seen some history made. With a little over two weeks worth of regular season data, it’s time to start assessing how teams have played to begin this year. It’s way too early to draw any definitive conclusions, but there are some surprises among the best teams, some teams that have shown real improvements so far, and a few others that have fallen flat despite lofty expectations.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Rays won their first 13 games of the season, tying the modern era major league record. You can talk all you want about the quality of their opening schedule — they steamrolled over the Tigers, Nationals, A’s, and Red Sox, with three of those four series at home — but it’s still really hard to string together that many wins in a row. Of course, their win streak came to an end as soon as they ran into a tougher opponent, losing two of three to the Blue Jays over the weekend. Still, those 13 wins are in the bank and they give Tampa Bay a huge advantage in the extremely competitive AL East. Unfortunately, they’ve already started to suffer some injury attrition — Jeffrey Springs and Zach Eflin have hit the IL, with the former expected to miss multiple months with an elbow injury.

The Brewers entered the season with a roster in flux. Christian Yelich and Willy Adames remained as anchors in the lineup, but they added three new regulars and were planning on running out two rookies to start the season in Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang. So far, their bet on the newcomers and youth has worked out. Mitchell has mashed the ball despite still struggling with strikeout issues and Turang has been solid at the plate while providing elite defense at second base. A shoulder injury has sidelined Brandon Woodruff for an extended period but Freddy Peralta looks healthy and is pitching extremely well, helping to cover for that hole in the rotation.

The Braves won all six of their games last week, sweeping the Reds and the Royals. That streak has helped them get back on the right track after losing three of four to the Padres last weekend. Ronald Acuña Jr. is crushing the ball again, and Matt Olson and Sean Murphy are keeping the offense rolling. Atlanta is getting Max Fried back from his early season injury today and recently recalled Vaughn Grissom to cover for injured starting shortstop Orlando Arcia; Grissom has already collected hits in all three games he’s played in the big leagues this year.

The Cubs’ veteran reclamation project seems to be paying off so far. Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, and Eric Hosmer are all contributing on offense, though they’re not necessarily playing up to their previous standards. The team just extended Ian Happ and activated Seiya Suzuki from the IL over the weekend. But the real reason they’ve looked so good early this season is a better-than-expected pitching staff. Their rotation has been solid despite some early season hiccups from Hayden Wesneski, and their bullpen is a lot deeper than it looked on paper.

The Blue Jays managed to take down the undefeated Rays over the weekend, winning two of three. Matt Chapman has been leading the offense, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette playing important supporting roles. The Blue Jays’ problem has been a pitching staff that has looked pretty shaky during the first few turns through the rotation. Thankfully, four-fifths of their starters turned in excellent starts last week, though Alek Manoah was torched for seven runs by the Rays on Sunday. He’s carrying a 6.98 ERA and a 7.04 FIP through four starts, and those struggles are beginning to become a real concern.

The Mariners clawed their way back to .500 after struggling through the first few weeks of the season. The man currently steering the ship? None other than Jarred Kelenic, who looks to be finally delivering on all that promise he had as a top prospect. He’s currently in the midst of a 10-game hit streak, blasted four home runs in consecutive games last week, and is now running a 220 wRC+ in 52 plate appearances. And while he’s unlikely to sustain that level of production, it’s a very encouraging sign for the M’s, who were counting on a breakout season from their young outfielder.

The Orioles have gotten off to a strong start behind their young and athletic lineup. They’re running all over the opposition behind strong showings from Adley Rutschman and Ryan Mountcastle. Uber-prospect Gunnar Henderson has been slow to get his rookie campaign off the ground, but he is walking in nearly a quarter of his at-bats. With that kind of plate discipline, the hits will eventually follow. Baltimore finally called up Grayson Rodriguez, too. He’s gotten off to a decent start to his big league career, with his eight strikeouts against the White Sox yesterday a highlight.

The first base position in Philadelphia must be cursed. After losing Rhys Hoskins for the season during spring training, his replacement Darick Hall tore a ligament in his right thumb, sidelining him for months. Now, the Phillies are preparing Bryce Harper to play first to expedite his return from Tommy John surgery. If they value his health, they might be better off sticking with their original plan to keep him at designated hitter for the entire season. Beyond the thinning of their lineup, the Phillies are also working to overcome a disastrous start to the season from their bullpen. The exception is José Alvarado, who has already collected 16 strikeouts in just 6.1 innings pitched.

Except for maybe the Cubs, no team has outperformed their preseason expectations more than the Pirates. They just completed an extremely hard fought split with the Cardinals over the weekend, Bryan Reynolds is leading the offense, and Andrew McCutchen looks revitalized in Pittsburgh yellow and black. Unfortunately, their exciting young shortstop Oneil Cruz broke his ankle on a play at the plate last week and will be out of action until late in the summer at the earliest. That definitely puts a damper on their early success.

It’s certainly surprising to see the Padres this low in the rankings after coming into the season as one of the favorites in the National League. After winning three of four in Atlanta last weekend, they struggled against the Mets and Brewers, losing five of seven. They’ll get both Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove back this week, which should give their offense and rotation a much needed boost.

No team has outperformed their expected win-loss record more than the Marlins so far. They aren’t doing it with clutch hitting or a lockdown bullpen. They’re simply winning all of the close games they’re playing and getting blown out when they lose. That skews their run differential, but the wins they’ve secured are in the bank. Yesterday was just the second time this season Luis Arraez has been held hitless, finally dropping his batting average below .500. Their starting rotation has been as good as advertised, with Jesús Luzardo looking like he’s finally putting everything together.

Speaking of pitchers putting things together, there’s something happening in Kansas City. With a new development group brought on board by new general manager J.J. Picollo, the Royals pitching staff has rarely looked better. Before going down with a strained flexor in his throwing elbow over the weekend, Kris Bubic put together a handful of promising starts. Brad Keller has a revamped repertoire as well; he’s also gotten off to a strong start. Aroldis Chapman is throwing harder than he has in years. Unfortunately, their offense has been dismal to start the season, and they were just swept by the Braves at home over the weekend to drop them to 4-12.

The A’s have already allowed a whopping 125 runs this year. The major league record for runs allowed in a 162-game season is 1,103 by the 1996 Tigers; at this rate, Oakland is going to shatter that record. They made history on Friday, allowing 17 walks to the Mets, which led to two separate innings with six or more runs allowed on just a single hit. That’s the wrong kind of history they want to be making in Oakland.

…

Last year, Brady Singer enjoyed a breakout season on the mound, making him a rare success story for a Royals development team that has squandered a ton of young pitching talent in recent years. They haven’t had trouble graduating pitchers into the majors; the problem has been helping them grow once they get there. So far, only Singer has made a true impact on the big league club, with fellow 2018 first-round picks Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Kris Bubic struggling in their limited time at the highest level. But if his first two starts this year are to be believed, Bubic might be joining Singer in that breakout tier.

Bubic’s start to spring training was delayed due to some lingering shoulder soreness, which meant his spot in the rotation was up in the air until just before Opening Day, when Lynch was shut down from throwing with his own shoulder issues. In 10.1 Cactus League innings, Bubic struck out 15 to go along with seven walks, but in his first start of the season on April 4 against the Blue Jays, he allowed just two runs in five innings of work, giving up seven hits and one walk with four strikeouts. That’s a good outing against a tough offense, particularly one loaded with right-handed mashers against the lefty.

Bubic’s second start on Sunday was the real eye-opener, though: six scoreless innings against the Giants with just two hits, no walks, and nine strikeouts on his ledger, matching a career high. He had never earned more than 17 swinging strikes in a single start; he racked up 19 on Sunday and accomplished that feat in just 76 pitches. That 25% swinging-strike rate was easily the highest of any appearance in his career to go with a 43.4% CSW rate, also his best in any start.

Bubic looks like an entirely new pitcher, too. His velocity has increased across the board, his release point is completely different, his changeup has a new shape, and he introduced a new slider to his pitch mix. That’s a lot of things to track. Read the rest of this entry »

On Opening Day, when the Braves took the field after batting in the top of the first inning, everyone you’d expect ran out to their usual positions. Well, almost everyone. Taking his position as the starting shortstop was Orlando Arcia, the recipient of a three-year contract extension announced earlier that day. The deal is worth $7.3 million with a club option for a fourth year that includes a $1 million buyout and replaces the previous two-year contract extension he had signed after the 2021 season.

If you hadn’t followed the Braves’ shortstop saga over the offseason, seeing Arcia in the Opening Day lineup might have been a surprise. So let’s recap: Dansby Swanson, the everyday shortstop since his debut in August 2016, played out his final year under team control last year and entered free agency. Atlanta didn’t show much interest in re-signing him once he hit the open market, and he wound up inking a massive seven-year deal with the Cubs.

The heir apparent to Swanson was Vaughn Grissom, who had been called up midseason to fill in for an injured Ozzie Albies even though he hadn’t played above Double-A yet. He impressed with a 165 wRC+ through his first 100 plate appearances in the big leagues, but that mark slid to just 35 over his final 50 trips to the plate. His late swoon was so bad that the Braves ended up benching him in three of their four postseason games. Still, entering spring training, the expectation was that Grissom would get every opportunity to win the job for good.

For his part, Arcia had appeared in just 104 games for the Braves after they acquired him from the Brewers in April 2021. He played four different positions in the infield and outfield, essentially acting as a utility man for Atlanta — a pretty significant step backwards after beginning his career as Milwaukee’s starting shortstop. Through his first five seasons, he put up a .244/.295/.366 slash line (a 71 wRC+) and accumulated 1.9 WAR, and after joining the Braves, he spent a lot of time riding the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors. Still, he did show some improvement at the plate in Gwinnett, posting a 129 wRC+ in 322 PA with his best-ever ISO at .233.

Those improvements at the plate carried over to the next year, where Arcia spent nearly all of his time in the big leagues as the Braves’ utility man. In limited action, he posted a 104 wRC+, a career-high for him. The biggest difference for him was a jump in batted ball quality:

His hard-hit rate improved by more than four points, up to 42.5%, and his barrel rate reached 7.5%, both career highs. He also cut his popup rate to 5.6% and simultaneously increased his fly ball rate. By elevating his higher quality contact but avoiding mis-hits, he was able to generate much more productive results on his balls in play, with average exit velocities on his fly ball and line drive contact that were particularly notable. Instead of a light-hitting, defense-first shortstop, Arcia’s batted ball contact started looking a lot more dangerous.

His plate discipline also took a big step forward. With the Brewers, Arcia had developed a very aggressive approach at the plate which didn’t go well with his middling bat-to-ball skills. Last year, he reduced his swing rate to 44.7%, a drop of nearly eight points over the year prior, and easily a career low. His contact rate didn’t budge, but simply taking more pitches allowed him to run a 9.0% walk rate and maintain his decent strikeout rate.

Despite those improvements at the plate, it still came as a surprise to see Arcia win the Opening Day gig. Grissom had an excellent spring, and a surprise contender emerged in Braden Shewmake.

There’s only so much stock you can put into spring numbers, though there is some evidence that exit velocity improvements can be a little sticky into the regular season. Unfortunately, based on the limited number of Statcast tracked batted balls, Grissom struggled with the same issues that undercut his seemingly impressive debut last year. In 15 tracked batted balls, his average exit velocity was just 86.5 mph — slightly better than the 84.6 mph he put up in the big leagues last year, but still well below league average. (Arcia only had eight tracked batted balls this spring, but their average exit velocity was 94.2 mph.) The lack of high quality hard contact last year was a major red flag for Grissom, who only managed a 34.3% hard-hit rate and put nearly half of his batted balls on the ground. A lot of his success was BABIP-driven, which is why he crashed so hard in September when balls stopped finding gaps in the defense.

Then there’s the problem of Grissom’s defense. He wasn’t great at second base while filling in for Arcia, costing the Braves five outs and three runs per OAA and RAA. At the more challenging defensive position, it’s likely those numbers would only get worse. Grissom worked out with Ron Washingon, who helped turn Marcus Semien’s defense into a strength, for three separate weeks during the offseason. But while there was some improvement, it wasn’t enough to warrant handing him the job out of the gate.

Shewmake’s emergence may have complicated the picture a little, but he wound up getting sent back to Triple-A for more development time. A decent defender already, the thing holding him back has been his lack of production at the plate. He has a good feel for putting the bat on the ball but no power whatsoever and limited on-base skills. His improvements this spring had coaches buzzing, but ultimately, he needs to prove it in the minors before getting a shot in the big leagues, and his ceiling may be that of a utility infielder anyway. After both Grissom and Shewmake were sent down to the minors, it’s telling that the former lined up at shortstop for Gwinnett, with the latter shifting over to second base.

Despite all this drama surrounding the position this offseason, Grissom could end up being the Braves’ shortstop of the future anyway. The extension Arcia signed doesn’t preclude the Braves from calling up him or Shewmake if they break out in the minors this year. But Arcia is only 28 years old, and it’s possible he’s in the middle of a mid-career breakout after his change of scenery. The improvements he’s made at the plate are a move in the right direction, and his defense is another positive at a premium position. If Grissom does get called up at some point to take the starting role, having Arcia as a utility man isn’t the worst outcome for the Braves.

Welcome back baseball! After an exciting and dramatic World Baseball Classic to whet our appetites, the main course is finally here. I introduced these power rankings a few years ago as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside of the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these offseason power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections which are now powered by our blend of ZiPS and Steamer projections. I’ve also used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections as the defensive component for each team in lieu of RAA.

The Braves haven’t budged from the top of these rankings throughout this offseason. Sure, the Mets spent a ton of money this offseason, and the Phillies just went to the World Series, but Atlanta has owned this division for the last half decade. There are still some lingering questions, however. Orlando Arcia likely isn’t the long-term solution at shortstop, but both Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake were optioned to Triple-A last week; the former has some defensive issues to work through, and the latter needs more exposure to high-level pitching before being handed a job in the big leagues. There are also some injury concerns in their pitching staff, with both Kyle Wright and Raisel Iglesias dealing with shoulder issues this spring and Michael Soroka not fully recovered from his many maladies. Still, this team is loaded with young talent and poised to win its sixth consecutive division title.

The big storyline for the Yankees this spring has been the competition for starting shortstop, with top prospect Anthony Volpe earning a spot on the Opening Day roster. That should provide youthful excitement to cover the very real concerns in the rotation and outfield. Harrison Bader likely won’t be out for long with his strained oblique, but his absence has revealed how shallow the position group is when Aaron Judge has to slide over to center field. And injuries of varying severity to Carlos Rodón, Luis Severino, and Frankie Montas aren’t exactly how you want to start off the season. Read the rest of this entry »