Archive for 2018 Trade Deadline

The Mariners Outfield, Now With Cameron Maybin

Earlier this afternoon, the Mariners acquired Cameron Maybin from the Marlins for infield prospect Bryson Brigman and international slot money. This isn’t an especially big trade, but it might end up being an important one for Seattle, who, at this very moment, is just two games ahead of the A’s for the second AL wild card spot.

If we were inclined to be charitable, we might say that center field hasn’t been a strength for the Mariners this season. The nastier sorts among us might describe the play there as having been lousy. The collection of players Seattle has run out rank 20th at the position in team WAR, and the defense has been worse, checking in at 24th. Some of that is the result of the short-lived Dee Gordon, Center Fielder experiment, but the trouble hasn’t stopped there. Guillermo Heredia is a useful fourth outfielder, but he has been exposed since being pressed into more regular service with Gordon’s shift back to the infield. He’s mustered a meager .229/.314/.335 slash line and an 85 wRC+, and even that is buoyed by a hot April and May. He is oddly performing better against righties than lefties but not doing well against either. And in what is admittedly a limited 90-game sample, he hasn’t been the sort of defensive standout whose play in the field compensates for his struggles at the plate.

With the trade, the Mariners outfield shifts some. Maybin, who has been a plus defender before and grades well now, will slot into center, with Mitch Haniger shifting back to right field and some combination of Denard Span and Ben Gamel playing in left.

Maybin may not represent a huge offensive upgrade (his season slash line of .251/.338/.343 and wRC+ of 91 aren’t All-Star level, though July has gone better with a 148 wRC+), but the slightly better bat and more-than-slightly better defense constitute a definite improvement. Haniger can play a capable enough center field, and he may still play there on occasion, but acquiring Maybin allows the Mariners to keep Gordon at second base (Robinson Cano is slated to assume first base duties when he returns from his PED suspension) and give Heredia a breather on the bench or in Tacoma.

For that, the Mariners give up slot money and Brigman, who Eric Longenhagen described thusly:

Acquiring Maybin is something of a marginal trade, but the AL postseason picture seems likely to be decided at the margins. In that respect, it might end up mattering quite a bit.


Phillies Catch an Upgrade in Wilson Ramos

Weeks ago, Wilson Ramos appeared to be the ideal trade target for the catching-deficient Nationals given his previous experience with the team (2010-16) and their current Replacement-Level Killer-esque production, but a funny thing happened on the way to Washington, DC. A left hamstring strain forced Ramos to bow out from the All-Star Game, the Nationals continued their descent into disarray, and now the Rays have traded the nearly 31-year-old backstop to the Phillies in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Ramos, who also missed the first 76 games of last season due to a torn ACL, has been doing catching drills and is likely to begin a rehab assignment soon. He’s enjoyed a strong season at the plate, hitting .297/.346/.488 with 14 homers in 315 PA, good for a career-best 130 wRC+. That’s a significant upgrade over what the Phillies have gotten from the 25-year-old Jorge Alfaro (.254/.305/.398, 85 wRC+) or 26-year-old Andrew Knapp (.223/.318/.372, 87 wRC+) on the offensive side, no small matter for a team whose 92 wRC+ ranks 10th in the NL.

Assuming that Ramos replaces Knapp in some kind of pairing with Alfaro, who has started 70 of the Phillies’ 106 games behind the plate, this looks like a defensive upgrade, as well. Via the version of Defensive Runs Saved that doesn’t include pitch framing, Ramos has been average this year, Alfaro two runs below average, and Knapp five below average, while via the framing-inclusive version, the numbers are -1, 0, and -10 runs, respectively. According to Baseball Prospectus’ numbers, Ramos has been 0.9 runs below average overall but dead even on framing, not as good as Alfaro (7.4 runs above average overall, 8.5 above average via framing) but significantly better than Knapp (-5.7 runs overall, -4.3 via framing), who’s gotten about half as much playing time.

As for the return to Tampa Bay, obviously, there’s no scouting report to offer on PTBNL. Ramos’s $10.5 million salary made him the highest-paid Ray, but as with Denard Span earlier this year and Evan Longoria and David Price previously, that title is always a temporary one. Like the mortality rates among those crowned the oldest living human, there’s no mystery about the turnover.


Brad Ziegler Returns to Arizona

The Arizona Diamondbacks bolstered their bullpen depth today, hours before the 4pm deadline, bringing back submariner Brad Ziegler from the Miami Marlins in return for right-handed reliever Tommy Eveld.

It sometimes feels like Brad Ziegler shouldn’t have a career. He throws 85 mph and doesn’t strike anybody out (at least relative to other pitchers), yet he has a 2.72 ERA over a decade-plus as a major leaguer. Ziegler’s firmly on the back end of his career — he’ll turn 39 during the playoffs — but it’s not like he has a fastball to lose. I’m convinced he could keep doing this until he’s 50 or so. I don’t usually go nuts over short-term season splits, but three runs allowed in his last 29 games is a darn good run, so you can make a good case that he’s found that special sorcery groove he thrives on.

Among relievers between 2008 and -18 (the range of his major-league career), Ziegler ranks second in baseball in terms of earned runs saved over what FIP suggests.

Reliever Runs Saved Over FIP, 2008-2018
Name IP ERA FIP ER over FIP
Jared Hughes 424.3 2.67 3.94 -59.9
Brad Ziegler 695.7 2.72 3.49 -59.5
Tyler Clippard 697.7 3.02 3.75 -56.6
Darren O’Day 555.0 2.56 3.47 -56.1
Santiago Casilla 583.7 3.07 3.84 -49.9
Tony Watson 500.0 2.63 3.52 -49.4
Joaquin Benoit 522.3 2.84 3.53 -40.0
J.P. Howell 453.7 2.94 3.73 -39.8
Javier Lopez 360.7 2.72 3.68 -38.5
Joe Beimel 267.0 3.27 4.47 -35.6
Joe Smith 608.7 2.99 3.50 -34.5
Tony Sipp 470.7 3.71 4.36 -34.0
Craig Breslow 533.0 3.51 4.08 -33.8
Francisco Rodriguez 592.7 3.17 3.65 -31.6
Bryan Morris 236.0 3.13 4.32 -31.2
Pat Neshek 348.0 2.69 3.49 -30.9
Dan Jennings 331.3 2.93 3.77 -30.9
Chris Perez 379.3 3.51 4.23 -30.3
Scott Downs 359.3 2.63 3.38 -29.9
Matt Albers 555.0 3.71 4.18 -29.0
Zach Britton 268.7 1.71 2.66 -28.4
Mariano Rivera 330.7 1.80 2.57 -28.3
George Kontos 355.3 3.12 3.83 -28.0
Brian Sanches 193.7 3.25 4.51 -27.1
Jeremy Affeldt 440.0 3.11 3.66 -26.9

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Rays Trade for Older Christian Yelich

At 53-53, the Rays aren’t bad, but they’re also not anywhere close to the race. At 54-52, the Cardinals aren’t much better, but a wild-card slot remains within reach. Given that, you’d think, if anything, the Cardinals would be improving, while the Rays would be selling. Instead, we have a trade that goes in the other direction. It’s a little bit of a surprising deadline maneuver, yet the Rays are gearing up for a run next season. And the Cardinals are just making more room for Harrison Bader and Tyler O’Neill. I’ll give you the specifics:

Rays get:

  • Tommy Pham
  • $500,000 international bonus-pool money

Cardinals get:

On the surface, you can understand the Cardinals’ perspective here. Pham is 30 years old, and his numbers don’t look like they did last season. Pham and the organization haven’t always seen eye-to-eye, and besides, Bader looks like one of the better defensive outfielders in either league, so it makes sense to play him more often. I can see why they might’ve wanted to make a trade. Still, it feels like they’ve sold Pham low. The Rays are getting a possible difference-maker here, and you don’t have to dig too far into the numbers to see it.

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Trade-Deadline Chat with Kiley McDaniel and Travis Sawchik

3:01
Travis Sawchik: Happy Trade Deadline Day

3:01
Travis Sawchik: 59 minutes to go …

3:02
Travis Sawchik: Chris Archer appears to be the biggest chip that hasn’t moved that might (probably will?)

3:02
Travis Sawchik: Harper is apparently staying, Rizzo says

3:02
yerp: Who says no: Archer for Harper + international signing money?

3:02
Travis Sawchik: Tampa ends that call quickly

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Indians Martinize Their Center-Field Problem

The Indians’ center-field woes — which is how you describe it when four players combine for a 55 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR — earned them a spot on the center-field edition of my Replacement Level Killers series. On Tuesday afternoon, however, the club did something about that, acquiring 30-year-old flychaser Leonys Martin from the Tigers in exchange for 21-year-old switch-hitting Double-A shortstop Willi Castro, whom our own Eric Longenhagen called “Cleveland’s most realistic trade chip this summer” back in April.

The well-traveled Martin, who joins his fourth team since the end of the 2015 season — he spent 2016 and most of 2017 with the Mariners before being dealt to the Cubs on August 31 and then signing with the Tigers in December — is in the midst of his best offensive season, hitting .251/.321/.409 with nine homers and seven steals. As modest as that line looks, it’s good for a 98 wRC+, 16 points above his career mark and a strong turnaround from last year’s dismal .172/.232/.281 (35 wRC+) line, a performance so bad that he wound up making 388 plate appearances at Triple-A Tacoma. The uptick in production appears to be the result of a newfound ability to elevate the ball: his current ground-ball rate of 35.6 % is nearly 13 points below his pre-2018 mark and his ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio of 0.77 basically half of what it was. According to Statcast, his average launch angle has increased from 9.4 degrees for the 2015-17 seasons to 16.8, with his xwOBA jumping a neat 100 points, from .264 to .364.

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Cardinals Trade Tommy Pham to Rays

This is the player who was traded.
(Photo: Charles Edward Miller)

In somewhat of a surprise move, the Cardinals have traded outfielder Tommy Pham this morning. In somewhat of another surprise, the team acquiring Pham hasn’t added him for the purposes of contending this season. While the Tampa Bay Rays haven’t been mathematically eliminated from a place in the playoffs, their chances of earning even a Wild Card berth are effectively zero at this point. Pham has value to the organization beyond 2018, though.

Even as rumors continue to circle around Chris Archer, the Rays have added a much needed outfielder not only for the remainder of the season, but also for the future. In trading away Pham, the Cardinals appear to be receiving multiple minor-league depth pieces.

Rays receive:

  • Tommy Pham
  • $500K international bonus-pool money

Cardinals receive:

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The Pirates Add Rangers’ Reliever for Stretch Run and Beyond

A few weeks ago, the notion of the Pirates operating as buyers at the deadline would have sounded pretty ridiculous. After a good run of play, though — including some great offensive performances — the club is just 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot despite having traded away Gerrit Cole and franchise icon Andrew McCutchen over the winter. While the Pirates bullpen has been pretty good of late behind the always good Felipe Vazquez, as well Kyle Crick, Richard Rodriguez, and Edgar Santana, another arm for the back of the pen is always a benefit. To that end, the team traded for one of the best relievers available in Rangers’ closer Keone Kela, a deal that was first reported by Jeff Passan.

Pirates receive:

Rangers receive:

Jerry Crasnick is reporting that the player to be named is a lesser prospect. When I wrote about the Pirates’ surprising run a week ago, I mentioned the dilemma the team faces given their unexpected contention:

Now that the Pirates find themselves in playoff contention, carving out a path forward isn’t as easy. A few weeks ago, they might have been taking calls on some of their bullpen arms as well as Mercer or Harrison. Now they have the option of adding an arm for a low-level prospect. Still, that isn’t going to move the team forward much. They have somewhat established starters at basically every position and Austin Meadows back in the minors awaiting playing time in the majors after a decent run earlier in the year. They have five MLB-caliber starters where most of the pitchers available won’t net a significant improvement over the last two months.

The Pirates are in weird spot. Nobody expected the team to do anything. Now that the team is somewhat close to a playoff spot, however, it feels like they should do something. Unfortunately, there’s not much the team can do right now to make themselves better.

By acquiring Keone Kela, the team is trying to thread the needle a bit. Kela is a good bullpen add for this season, recording a 2.97 FIP and 3.44 ERA while pitching his home games in Texas’ hitter-friendly environment. Using an upper-90s fastball and low-80s curve, he’s struck out 29% of batters while walking under 10%. He definitely helps Pittsburgh’s bullpen this year; however, he could also help the team in the future. Kela is making $1.2 million in his first year of arbitration. His salary will rise some over the next few years, but he won’t be a free agent until after the 2020 season. In theory, the Pirates have brought on a player who should help them in multiple seasons.

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Braves Add Adam Duvall for the Long-Term(?)

Forget the intro! Let’s just get right to it. The Braves and Reds made a trade. This is what it is:

Braves get:

Reds get:

At first, it doesn’t seem like very much. Sims and Wisler might still have some name value, yes. But their stocks are diminished. And while Duvall has his uses, the Braves’ outfield is currently occupied by Ronald Acuna, Ender Inciarte, and Nick Markakis. Pretty good players, all of them, and we usually don’t grant much attention to additions to a bench. This doesn’t appear to be a move to dwell on for very long.

I’m not going to convince you that this is a major trade. It isn’t. But I can at least try to explain some layers. Firstly, for the Braves, this allows for something of a platoon. Duvall bats righty, and hits well against lefties. Inciarte doesn’t, and doesn’t. And by any metric you look at, Duvall is one of the better defensive left fielders around, so now with a southpaw on the mound, Duvall can handle left, with Acuna sliding over to the middle. The Braves are just improving their versatility, here. They’re addressing a minor weakness.

And then, although Duvall turns 30 in just over a month, he’s still under club control through 2021, with three years of arbitration. His wRC+ is a paltry 82, but his career mark is 96, and according to Baseball Savant’s expected wOBA metric, Duvall this year has been particularly unlucky. Markakis’ contract is up after the year. Duvall could be seen as a longer-term outfield option. This doesn’t lock the Braves into anything, but at the very least it gives them a safety net.

I don’t know how many near-30-year-olds should realistically be considered longer-term options, but Duvall’s defense has held up, which says good things about his current athleticism. And if you ask the Braves, they’re not losing anything here they had a plan for. Tucker is just a guy the Reds can use to plug into their Duvall-shaped vacancy. He’s a fourth outfielder, on his better days. Wisler has a career big-league ERA- of 129. Sims has a career big-league ERA- of 140. They’d all but been erased from the Braves’ organizational blueprint.

From the Reds’ perspective, it’s a trade for pedigree. Sims is 24, and he was once Baseball America’s No. 57 overall prospect. Wisler is 25, and he was once BA’s No. 34 overall prospect. They’ll now join previous top-100 pitching prospects like Cody Reed, Brandon Finnegan, and Robert Stephenson. To say nothing of other pitching talent the Reds have had better luck developing. Duvall had a place in Cincinnati, but not as a part of any competitive core. They’re hoping that at least one or two more young pitchers will emerge to join Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle.

Neither Sims nor Wisler has been good in the majors. The Reds might not be able to figure out why. But Sims, at least, continues to look pretty good as a Triple-A starter, and Wisler, to his credit, has improved his Triple-A contact rate by eight percentage points. For the Braves, Sims and Wisler have been disappointments. For the Reds, they’re providing a new opportunity. A change of scenery, a blank slate, a potentially whole new set of instructions. It’s a roll of the dice on two interesting arms. It’s conceivable that either or both pitchers could play a big-league role in 2019.

The Reds need to prove they can develop pitching, because they aren’t devoid of talent. It’s the rotation(s) that’s held the Reds out of the race(s), and they want to put that behind them. The Braves are happy to let the Reds experiment, because they ran just about out of patience. A new wave of pitchers is cresting in Atlanta, so they’re not so concerned with the waves that came before. The Reds might’ve spotted a post-hype opportunity. The burden is on them to turn opportunity into value, where another club wasn’t successful.


Ian Kinsler Plays for the Red Sox Now

With a record of 67-37, the Yankees have been the second-best team in all of baseball. And yet those same Yankees are likely to have to survive a one-game wild-card playoff, because for as good as they’ve been, the Red Sox are six games better in the standings. They’re on pace to win either 112 or 113 games, depending on how you round your decimals, and yet even that good of a team can still have the occasional weakness. For example! Dustin Pedroia has been unable to get all the way healthy. Second base, then, has mostly belonged to Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt, and together they have been bad. The Red Sox have gotten a below-replacement performance from the keystone, so it’s an area they thought about improving.

You may consider the position improved. The Sox have moved to pick up a rental.

Red Sox get:

Angels get:

There is some money changing hands, but it doesn’t do much to change the equation. The Red Sox are almost certain to exceed the highest competitive-balance-tax threshold of $237 million, which comes with financial and draft-related penalties, but they don’t seem to mind, provided the team can get better. Kinsler makes the team better, even if only a little bit. The Red Sox were already so strong.

Given that Kinsler is 36 years old, he’s past the best offensive days of his career. He’s been hotter lately, shaking off an early slump, and even the overall reduced version of Kinsler now seems like more of a threat than Nunez. More importantly, whether you go by Defensive Runs Saved or Ultimate Zone Rating, Kinsler ranks as the second-best defensive second baseman. He has a long track record of being an outstanding defender, and you certainly couldn’t say that for Nunez. Kinsler is also better in that regard than Holt, so even if the bat is diminished, Kinsler is going to take hits away. Value is value, however it comes.

This has the additional effect of freeing up Nunez and/or Holt to play more third base, with Rafael Devers on the disabled list. Devers, you’d think, would be all the way back well in advance of the playoffs, but there are still games to win today. There are still the Yankees to try to fend off. This gets more complicated if Pedroia starts to feel markedly better, but I don’t think anyone’s counting on that.

For the Angels, it hurts to say goodbye, because Kinsler was a part of what they thought would be a good thing. But it’s long been evident this season wasn’t going to work out, so at least the front office isn’t coming away empty-handed. Both Buttrey and Jerez are relievers — Buttrey 25, and Jerez 26. Buttrey seems like the better of the two, but they’ve both been pitching in Triple-A, with fair amounts of success. There have been 276 Triple-A pitchers with at least 40 innings. Buttrey ranks fifth in strikeout rate, while Jerez checks in at 20th. Buttrey, also, ranks fifth in K-BB%. He pitches off of a huge fastball, and this season his strikeouts have surged while his walks have gone down.

It’s funny — the Red Sox have talked about needing bullpen help, and Buttrey might’ve been able to be that guy. But now he’ll join the Angels instead, and it shouldn’t be long before both these guys get major-league looks. Neither is a lock to really do anything, but as the Angels look ahead to a hopefully more competitive 2019, these could be a couple of bullpen solutions. Kinsler’s contract is up in some months.

This is how rental trades usually work. The Angels just decided to go for high-minors relievers instead of low-minors starters. And so now we’ll see if the Red Sox fill the bullpen slot Buttrey didn’t get a chance to take. Heaven knows there are plenty of relievers available.