Eric A Longenhagen: Hi from Tempe. Links…

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote up the new Reds prospects from the Floro deal…https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-the-reds-return-f…

Eric A Longenhagen: Today’s Daily Prospect Notes: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/daily-prospect-notes-7-5/

Eric A Longenhagen: Look for Futures Game roster reaction tomorrow, as well as something on ESPN Insider on July 2 guys

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably gonna stick to a tight 60 min today, so let’s boogie

Robert: With the new J2 class, anyone that jumps off the charts outside of the top 5 or so? I’ve read good things on Alcantara and Pie

Jay Jaffe: Hey everybody! Thanks for stopping by today’s chat. Hopefully, you enjoyed the July 4 holiday and returned with a similar number of fingers as you had previously. Before we get into the questions, I’d like to call your attention to my upcoming appearance at Politics and Prose Bookstore in Washington, DC on July 14, where I’ll be signing copies of The Cooperstown Casebook and ESPN’s Keith Law will be doing the same for Smart Baseball; we’ll both discuss our books and field questions. It’s the night before the All-Star Futures Game, so if you’re in town for the event, please stop by!

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/jay-jaffe-and-keith-law-in…

And now, onto the questions….

Pio: DRS thinks Machado is a historically bad shortstop and UZR thinks he’s just regular bad. Which one do you think is closer to the truth?

Jay Jaffe: In general, I tend to prefer DRS to UZR because of the additional observational input beyond just batted ball type (both of which do have their biases, admittedly). But I think a good strategy when viewing defensive metrics is to be wary of the outliers, and DRS tends to have more than UZR does — the spread from top to bottom is generally wider. So I’ll go with garden-variety bad instead of historically bad.

Oh Mets…: I saw somewhere that the Mets are viewing Flores as their piece to move since hes controllable – but is there really any appetite at all for him? Can’t imagine the return would be that great.

Jay Jaffe: I saw the same thing and thought simiarly. Flores is a decent lefty-masher who’s stretched as a regular, and his defense on the left side of the infield is generally Not Good. He’s a useful spare-part pickup for a contending team but trading him isn’t going to do anything to change the course of the Mets’ org.

Greg: A question I never thought would be worth asking — is Nick Markakis worthy of a qualifying offer this offseason? If so, would he turn it down?

Meg Rowley: Happy baseball chat from the mountains, friends!

Meg Rowley: I’ll probably go a bit shorter than usual today in an effort to do some editing (read: go on a hike before it gets too hot).

Meg Rowley: But for now? Chat!

Brad Johnson: Does Justin always chat at the same time as you? (I swapped shifts with him)

Should I forward all the fantasy questions to you? You can direct the poop and farts to me I suppose.

Meg Rowley: He does I think? Everyone, go ask Brad your fantasy baseball questions.

Meg Rowley: Don’t you dare take the poop/farts beat away from me, Brad.

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Nick: Who is the biggest threat to the Mariners in the second AL WC spot. Is it really the A’s?

Jeff Sullivan: Basically has to be the A’s

Jeff Sullivan: They’re seven back. The next-closest team is the Angels, at ten back, and they’ve been completely decimated by injuries

Jeff Sullivan: Rays are 11 back. Blue Jays, 13. Twins, 13.5. It’s the A’s or it’s nobody

Eric A Longenhagen: What’s up everyone? Howdy from Arizona, where it is officially ‘Hot AF’ and the AZL is now underway.

Eric A Longenhagen: Some housekeeping:

Eric A Longenhagen: We’ll have a July 2 board up tomorrow

Eric A Longenhagen: Daily Prospect Notes are back and can be found here: We’ll have a July 2 board up tomorrow

Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/category/daily-prospect-notes/

Eric A Longenhagen: Submitted today’s to Carson just moments ago, will link if he gets it up during chat

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to today’s chat, my first in two weeks after time spent on Cape Cod with family and in Denver meeting our readers and my fellow staffers — and checking out Coors Field for the first time.

That visit had me wondering about the Rockies’ recent problems in assembling a productive outfield, which I wrote about for today https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-cant-the-rockies-put-together-an-o…

Meanwhile, I’ll have an InstaGraphs page for this up later today, but if you’re a Washington DC area resident a visitor who will be in town for the All-Star Futures Game, you’re invited to a book signing at the great Politics and Prose, where Keith Law (ESPN Insider prospect expert and author of Smart Baseball) and I (author of Cooperstown Casebook) will sign and discuss our respective books on Saturday, July 14 at 6 pm. See https://www.politics-prose.com/event/book/keith-law-smart-baseball-jay… for more details in the interim.

Jay Jaffe: With that out of the way, let’s get to the questions!

Jeff: So with no Mets baseball to watch all summer, what should I do with all this free time?

Jay Jaffe: Read some books, spend time with family/children, devote yourself to a cause, sign up for MLB TV and watch other teams… there’s plenty to do, and you will survive. You might even be healthier for it.

Fred: What kind of HOF case is Arenado building, and how do you think playing in Coors will affect his chances?

Jay Jaffe: Arenado’s years old and in his sixth season. If he keeps playing as he has been thus far in 2018, he’ll have four seasons in the vicinity of 6 bWAR (or better), a strong foundation to build upon along with the more traditional measures. Voters have had a hard time figuring out what to do with the credentials of Larry Walker given his time at Coors, and they’re likely to do the same when it comes to Todd Helton, who become eligible this winter and is in the vicinity of the JAWS standard at first base (https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_1B.shtml), above on peak and below on career WAR. I think Arenado will be in better shape because of the perception and impact of his highlight-film defense, but it’s still probably an uphill battle for any Rockies player.

Meg Rowley: Good morning! As you might have guessed, I am not Kiley. We will return to our regularly scheduled programming next week, but for now, a Wednesday Meg chat!

yojiveself: imagine if you could start MLB all over again.  No history, no records.  How many games a season do you want?  To me, a 100 game season would be perfect.  Start mid-April, WS in late September.  Thoughts?

Meg Rowley: Dropping all the way down to 100 feels very drastic. Now you might say, hey, that’s because you’re used to baseball as it is, and this is meant to be a question about baseball as it should be.

Meg Rowley: To which I would say, well yeah, but 100 is too few.

Meg Rowley: I think something in the 150s allows you to skirt some of the really yucky weather on the front end, but keeps October the same.

Meg Rowley: There’s something about crisp air during playoff baseball I’d be loathe to do. Also, the sample size is nice.

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay! Errand running went a little sideways then got a call back from an int’l scout. But I am here now!

Tommy N.: Should I worry about Weathers not signing?

Kiley McDaniel: Good first question. Lots of rumors flying around about unsigned prep picks. Suffice it to say we’ve heard somewhat reliable buzz about all of them possibly not signing, but it’s likely almost all of them do…though the buzz is of varying seriousness. So can’t really help you with the specific ones more than an inkling as to what happens right before the deadline.

Kiley McDaniel: Hold on, just got some buzz to report on that exact topic

Kiley McDaniel:

Kiley McDaniel: Okay back to the chat

Dan Szymborski: A Time for Chats

Dan k: Will Harper rebound ?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

John S: should we expect to see your physique in the ESPN the BODY issue?

Dan Szymborski: They want to SELL magazines.

Dan Szymborski: They should put me on the cover and sell velcro-on clothes for $4.99

Kiley McDaniel: Hello! I am here to baseball chat with you. Home after seeing the top 2019 MLB Draft prep types at PG National, also saw a Dunedin/Port Charlotte game and the FSL All Star Game while I was over there. Going to see college Team USA next week with what is the most loaded roster they’ve had in a long time, may be a dozen day one guys on the team.

greg: Is there a direct link to THE BOARD on the homepage or under a menu that I’m missing?

Kiley McDaniel: Yes there is, mouse over the LEADERS header and its near the top of that menu

Lilith: Going into the season, India was pegged as a guy with average tools across the board. How has this season changed how you view his upside? Also, is it possible that he could stick at short? Thanks

Kiley McDaniel: He lost some weight and as sometimes happens, the tools got better when he did that. Power went from 50 to 55, speed went from 40-45 to 50, defense went from fringy to above at 3B and his offensive approach improved, then the stats jumped with the new power which he mostly tapped into

Kiley McDaniel: The upside is still no 60 tools, but there’s plenty of 3 win players in the bigs with no 60 tools that are just above average at everything and play everyday at a useful position, so he could turn into that. Seems likely to fall into the 2.0 to 3.0 WAR band for me, though.