Dan Szymborski: Greetings friends! I am enjoying a balmy 14 degrees now, a full 24 degrees of warming in the last four hours!

Dan Szymborski: If only my mazda was a convertible so I could go enjoy the day

Datt Mamon: The Cubs seem like they’re poised to be better in 2026, so what accounts for an only 87 win projection?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t necessarily see them as better

Dan Szymborski: It already liked PCA a ton. Sees Bregman/Tucker swap a wash. No more excited about the rotation and nobody has a projection as good as Steele last year. Likes bullpen a bit better

JC: Does the qualifying offer have to be exactly the number provided by MLB or at least that number? Could a team offer $35m for a player that may want to reconsider going to the market?

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everyone. In case anyone missed it, the Jays list went live last week. Eric is publishing Philly’s list… tomorrow, I think. It’ll be soon. I also have LAA in the hopper, that’ll probably go live  Friday.

Brendan Gawlowski: Otherwise, let’s get to it.

mike: Will any Twins minor league hitters debut this year, or will they keep them down for control purposes (esp. given the likely lockout)?

Brendan Gawlowski: I would be surprised if you see huge shenanigans, honestly. Like, if Walker Jenkins rakes in AAA to start the year, I wouldn’t expect him to be stuck there all year.

Big Christmas: What do you make of the Mariners linked to CJ Abrams? Good idea to give Colt Emerson a few more games at AAA? I know he’s great, but only 40 games above A+ would give me pause in fully turning over an infield spot in the spring for a contender

Brendan Gawlowski: If you’re in the midst of your competitive window an you can acquire a player like Abrams at a tolerable price, you do it.

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s a very chilly day here in Brooklyn (21 degrees) with the snow piled high on the curb. I think we got 10-12″ on Sunday. My basement office is cold enough to hang meat, to borrow a phrase from the late, great voice of the Utah Jazz, Hot Rod Hundley.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I published the final article of this year’s Hall of Fame election cycle, my look at the next five elections. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/peering-into-the-crystal-ball-the-next-fiv…

Jay Jaffe: For the first time, I went back and audited my own performance at this exercise, which has always been more art than science. Last week of course I had the Hall of Fame results (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/centers-of-attention-carlos-beltan-and-and…) and the candidate-by-candidate breakdown (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-candidate-by-candidate-look-at-the-2026-…)

Jay Jaffe: Finally, I’m one of four FanGraphs writers nominated for a SABR Analytics Conference Research Award. You can vote here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-sabr-analytics-conference-research-aw…

Carter: Hi Jay! Hope all is well and thank you for standing up for Minnesota.

Jay Jaffe: Gotta stand up for what’s right! Melt ICE

And now, on with the show

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe where the new neighbors have people gutting the house for the next week plus, and jackhammering has been involved.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we’re gonna go long today, so buckle in, throw on some music or a pod, and play pepper in the queue with me for the next little while.

Brown: Any news/speculation on what the Giants are doing with the IFA money they just traded for?

Eric A Longenhagen: Actually, no. Lemme see if I can source the amount of space traded during chat today. (Note from Eric after chat: the amount acquired was $250,000, probably for someone they had already agreed with, according to a source)

Potato: Eric, is it funny that Semien first moved to 2B in deference to Bo at SS in Toronto, and now Bo is moving to 3B instead of 2B in deference to Semien in NY? Or am I reaching?

Eric A Longenhagen: It is kind of fun and cool that these two have now played together at multiple spots but I don’ know that I’d say Bo is what moved Semian off of shortstop, Semien kinda moved himself out of there. Great hitter, wasn’t a great shortstop.

Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody. Blue Jays list went live today, Guardians list went live last week. If you haven’t seen ’em, take a look.

Brendan Gawlowski: Away we go

Potato: Great Job with the Jays system! Any rough order for the next few to come out?

Brendan Gawlowski: Angels for me next week. Eric is working on Phillies, then Detroit. James will have Houston or St. Louis sometime before prospect week, I don’t recall which.

Brendan Gawlowski: We’re also balancing these lists with other Prospect Week content, so… much to come

Nick: How does a prospect’s organization impact your evaluation (if at all)? For example, Ethan Holliday with the Rockies (haven’t developed bats well recently) vs Ethan Holliday with the Dodgers/Brewers/etc?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey there, folks. Good morning from the kitchen island in Tempe, I’m stoked to see some guys throw bullpens and take BP today. First day of school feeling and all that.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve got a hard out at 11 (I have a radio hit to do and then wanna hustle to Diablo for the Dream Series workouts) so let’s get rolling.

Jim: Where does Colome rank among A’s prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably 4th or 5th

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll take Jump and Morales over him for sure, maybe Barnett belongs with those guys. Arnold v Colome or maybe something like Montero v Colome are good questions tbd

go cards: what do you make of joshua baez’s contact improvements in 2025? outside chance at him being stuffed for 2026?