Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Monday chat. Excuse the slow start on my part – I’ve got a piece on Domingo German, DV suspensions, and the postseason that’s going live soon and that requires more attention than most posts when it comes to an editorial pass. On a lighter note… well, things aren’t great for Team Entropy (update coming tomorro) but we’ll manage. And now, on with the show…

TomBruno23: How about that Cards-Cubs series?

Jay Jaffe: I did not actually watch much of it, alas. Because the weather is so good here in NYC, and because the next few weekends will be so hectic, I spent much of my weekend with my daughter — her first trip to the Bronx Zoo on Saturday and then first to the Metropolitan Museum on Sunday. Very fun times.

Less so for the Cubs, apparently. Between their mounting injuries and the ongoing failures of Craig Kimbrel — who, let’s face it, can’t possibly be at 100% right now — it’s a grim ending for them, and a bummer for #Team Entropy. It’s an impressive showing by the Cardinals, and the fact that the Yelich-less Brewers have risen to the occasion while the Cubs have fizzled is impressive as well.

stever20: Where do you think Maddon is managing next year?  I’d think he’d look really nice in say DC.

Jay Jaffe: Given that the Nationals have rebounded from their dreadful start to (likely) make the playoffs, I don’t see Davey Martinez getting ousted. If it’s an NL East landing spot for him, I suspect that the Phillies are the more likely destination — particularly when held in contrast to the Mets; i can’t see them willing to pay his high salary or see him willing to sign on for the chaos that comes with working for the Wilpons. Maybe the Padres, but as with Philadelphia, the firing of the managers often suggests that the GM is next on the chopping block, so I’m not sure how attractive either scenario is.

Mike Sixel: Would you put either Gibson or Perez on the Twins post season roster?

Gub Gub: Dan, how do I get gum out of my hair?

Dan Szymborski: Peanut butter?

Dan Szymborski: All I know about gum removal is that episode of the Simpsons where Lisa has gum in her hair and everyone lines up to “help”

Going Over the Hill: In your ZiPS projections, do you have an age at which you tend to assume players will start to get worse every year? Does this vary by position? Or otherwise how do you separate the young Lucas Giolitos, the middle-aged Gerrit Coles, and the spry Justin Verlanders of the world in your projections?

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, hitters age, pitchers break.

Dan Szymborski: You don’t really get into a pitcher aging *curve* (apart from the normal risks for a pitcher) until the late 30s.

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Scout is napping and I’m sipping a protein shake.

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve added some high-speed video to the @FG_Prospects twitter account, @fangraphs instagram and @fangraphs YouTube. Trevor Bauer, Ian Anderson, Justin Dunn, Nate Pearson the most recent.

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve continued to pull prospects off the lists that have graduated and Nate Lowe and Jonathan Loaisiga graduated today, so they’ll get taken off shortly. Look at the farm rankings before they change again: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

Kiley McDaniel: Okay, sorry for the delay, I just took both of them off the lists

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions:

BlueJayMatt: If you were in charge would you change the rules to allow draft pick trading in mlb? Maybe with some restrictions in place like the nba who don’t allow consecutive first round picks to be traded?

Meg Rowley: Hi all — welcome to the chat!

Meg Rowley: Let’s get this bit of awfulness out of the way…

Vander: Vazquez… Just… *sigh*… Please say he’s going to be out of baseball for good… Please.

BlueJayMatt: If you were in charge of the Pirates what would you do with Vazquez?

Dr. Frank Jobe: So uhhh Felipe Velasquez eh?

awg: Felipe Vazquez 😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬😬

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to another edition of my Monday chat. Apparently, I screwed something up and the queue has been open for awhile, but that just gives us a good stock of questions to start with.

Jay Jaffe: My piece for today, on the premature end of Mike Trout’s season, went up a little while ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trouts-season-is-over-which-completel…. It’s a bummer, but not half as much a bummer as the death of Ric Ocasek, news of which reached me (and everybody else) last night.

The Cars were an unstoppable hit machine when I was in grade school. Entry level new wave/post-punk, catchy as hell, icy cool. Only later did I appreciate the extent to which they were a gateway to so many great bands that influenced them — Kraftwerk, Roxy Music, Bowie, Suicide, the Modern Lovers, etc. Their first album is utter perfection, and the ones that followed are pretty damn good as well.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show.

MVP: Do you think Trout hangs on to win the AL MVP vote despite missing effectively the last 3 weeks of the season?

Jay Jaffe: I address that in the piece. While we’ve seen a handful of players win while toiling for sub-.500 teams, and win while playing in 140 or fewer games in a 162-game schedule, we’ve never seen anybody who’s at the intersection of that Venn diagram. Alex Bregman is closing in on Trout, and while he won’t overtake him, I can see the strong possibility of voters screwing the best player on Planet Earth yet again. Brace yourselves.

stever20: How crazy is it that in the last 3 years Trout has missed now 98 games.  Costing him 30 homers and 106 hits based on what he’s done in those 3 years on average.  How worried are you that he’s gonig to turn into this generations Ken Griffey Jr.?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a’me, Mario!

Pat: Are you always on Thursdays now?

Dan Szymborski: Well, until something else changes or I die or something.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not doing chats after I die.

Dan Szymborski: Am I supposed to be haunted in my grave, my eternal rest disturbed by sasndwich questions?

Joe: If you’re Bob Melvin, how would you use Luzardo coming down the stretch?

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL. Scout is eating lunch and I’ll get to that after I’m done with you people

Kiley McDaniel: We’ve done some board adjusting and video on the usual FG_Prospects twitter and fangraphs instagram but are mostly doing behind the scenes work now that you’ll be aware of in the coming weeks

Kiley McDaniel: some reading, if you’re so inclined:

Kiley McDaniel: Rosenthal on the Rockies and trading Arenado?: https://theathletic.com/1202375/2019/09/11/rosenthal-after-the-teams-s…

Kiley McDaniel: Sawchik on if the minor leagues are necessary: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-we-even-need-minor-league-base…

Kiley McDaniel: to your questions: