After coming up short in 2021, the Astros are back on top of the sport with their second championship in six years. Come playoff time, Houston consistently executed its gameplan better than any other team. This year, dominance came in the form of historically effective relief pitching and timely hitting. On the whole, the Astros’ hitting wasn’t strikingly better than any other team, but when given the chance to put up enough for their bullpen to hold it down, they did that with no problem.

That last part is what has lingered in my head for the past week or so. Over the last six years, it feels as if Houston’s hitters have figured it out in big moments while other teams have stumbled. Even in this year’s tournament, when there was dominant pitching across the board, Astros hitters made the most of mistakes. And Houston could rely on a large group of guys, including but not limited to Jeremy Peña, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker. Compare that to teams like the Yankees and Phillies, who had to rely on just a few players throughout.

But why is that? How can Houston get timely production from any guy in the lineup while others can’t overcome their holes? I still haven’t gotten close to a definitive answer, but I think I’m making progress on a reason why. Read the rest of this entry »

Today we’re going to watch the most spectacular catches of the 2022 season. Not all of them, though; that would take too long. Instead, we’re going to skip all the exciting ones to focus on the greatest, most boring plays of the year.

Last week, I wrote about right fielders Kyle Tucker and Nick Castellanos. The latter got a great deal of ink for making sliding catches on balls Tucker likely would have gotten to easily. In this article, we’ll focus on the inverse: Players who made difficult plays look routine. The goal here is not to downplay cool diving catches, but to celebrate great plays that might have gone unappreciated. Read the rest of this entry »

Wednesday marked the return of one of baseball’s blessed traditions: Scott Boras Comedy Hour. At most major industry conferences, the sport’s most powerful agent has developed a habit of leaning against a wall in some hotel hallway with dozens of the BBWAA’s leading lights before him like children at the foot of Christ in the illustrations from a Sunday School tract. This year’s GM meetings are no exception.

Over the years, the erudite Boras has modulated the form of his address; what was once a straightforward press scrum became a vehicle for one-liners. Now, Boras uses his time to rip off a series of bodged-together puns and rhyming couplets in praise of his top clients.

It’s an odd spectacle with little precedent in American sports apart from — and I make this comparison advisedly — Muhammad Ali. But it is nevertheless an important one. Minutes after Boras got through his set, President Biden addressed the nation after Tuesday night’s pivotal midterm elections, and I was so wrapped up in Boras Chat I forgot there was another thing happening. Read the rest of this entry »

“Mike from Shamong you’re on 94.1 WIP.”

“Hey, Joe, first time long time, thanks for having me on.”

“I hear you want to talk some Phillies. What’s on your mind, brother?”

“Joe, the Phils gotta get rid of Rhys Hoskins. I know he’s been around a while and people say he’s a nice guy but I just can’t stand to watch him anymore. He struck out 10 times in the World Series, he drops every third ball that comes to him, he’s the reason we lost!”

“Well Mike, most of the Phillies lineup went missing at the end of the Wo—”

“I HATE HIS STINKING GUTS JOE! I CAN’T STAND TO LOOK AT HIM!”

“So you want to trade him, then?”

“I do, Joe. Hoskins only has one year left before free agency, and we can’t lose him for nothing. Look, Nola was pretty bad in the World Series too. Maybe we can trade Hoskins for a no. 2 starter? How about that kid from San Diego, Musgraves? Yeah, Hoskins to the Padres for Musgraves and a first-round pick. What do you think about that? I’ll take my answer off the air.”

Read the rest of this entry »

Beau Brieske had a promising rookie season with the Detroit Tigers, and he beat the odds in doing so. The 24-year-old right-hander lasted until the 27th round of the 2019 draft, where he was selected 802nd overall out of Division II Colorado State University-Pueblo. He entered pro ball on the heels of a junior season in which he logged a 5.42 ERA.

Brieske has improved exponentially since that time, and pitching analytics is one of the reasons why. Armed with a better understanding of how his stuff plays (and he’s added to his arsenal, too), he made his big league debut in April, then went on to throw 81.2 innings before a forearm strain ended his season in mid-July. Brieske finished with a 4.19 ERA and a 4.97 FIP over 15 starts.

Brieske, who relies more on pitch-ability than on raw stuff, discussed his repertoire and approach shortly before going on the shelf with the injury.

———

David Laurila: What do you know about pitching now that you didn’t when you signed your first professional contract? I’m guessing that might require a long answer.

Beau Brieske: “For sure. I have a lot better understanding of myself as a pitcher than I did at that time. With all the analytics… I mean, I had no idea what any of those were when I was coming out of college. I didn’t really even know about spin rate, let alone all the other in-depth analytics that people use. Now I know a lot more about where my stuff plays.

“I also have a better understanding of sequencing certain pitches to get guys off-balance. I’m using effective velocity with my fastball, going in to low and away, then back in, maybe followed by a changeup low and away. Another big thing is learning where I can throw certain pitches to get a take, where certain pitches are better if I need a weak ground ball, and what to throw when I’m trying to get a punch-out.

“All of that stuff is continuing to grow for me, the learning about myself and my arsenal, and I’m trying to improve on a day-to-day basis. That’s whether it’s strictly internal feel, the eye test, or using analytics to, I guess you could say, ‘hit certain points’ where I can build my best arsenal. So yes, probably a long-winded answer. There has been a lot.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Rockies and Braves wasted little time in kicking off the offseason trade market. On Sunday, just one day after the World Series came to a thrilling conclusion, the clubs made a one-for-one swap: Sam Hilliard for Dylan Spain. And while the move’s significance paled in comparison to the the major transaction of the day, Edwin Díaz’s extension with the Mets, there is more to it than meets the eye.

For many Braves fans, their biggest concern might be how the team chooses to fill the Dansby Swanson-shaped hole at shortstop. Currently, our depth charts have rookie standout Vaughn Grissom soaking up 74% of the innings at short. But though he fared quite well with the bat in his major league audition, to the tune of a 121 wRC+, the 21-year-old graded out as a net negative at second base this year. His mark of -5 Outs Above Average (OAA) at the position, typically thought to be the easier of the middle infield spots to defend, does not portend success at short.

The larger question mark for the Braves might be in left field, though. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II are locked into right and center, but there is no clear choice for the club in left. As Marcell Ozuna and Eddie Rosario floundered, Atlanta’s left fielders this year cost the team 0.8 WAR, tied with the lowly Rangers for the worst mark in the league. Hilliard can play all three outfield spots but has played the most in left and grades out best there in terms of OAA, Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). He provides the Braves with meaningful depth at their weakest position, well worth the cost of a 24-year-old relief prospect in Spain, who spent the year amassing a 5.30 ERA in High-A. Read the rest of this entry »

Defensive replacements might be the most overlooked of managerial decisions. We can (and do) spend hours debating the merits of lineup construction, pitching changes, and pinch-hitters, but rarely are defensive replacements a part of those conversations. Every Phillies fan has an opinion as to whether or not Rob Thomson should have pulled Zack Wheeler in the World Series. Padres faithful were left scratching their heads when Bob Melvin didn’t bring Josh Hader in to face Bryce Harper in the deciding game of the NLCS. The phrase “Taylor Walls, Pinch-Hitter” still echoes in many a Rays fan’s head.

But how many of the 24 defensive replacements do you remember from this year’s postseason?

I’m not trying to be obtuse here. I’m well aware of why defensive replacements don’t get much attention; they’re far less likely to make a difference than almost any other managerial decision. Defensive replacements only come in for an inning or two when their team is already in the lead. There’s no guarantee they get to a make a single out, let alone a difficult play that could have significant ramifications for the outcome of the game. Yet that being so, when and how to deploy defensive replacements is still an interesting bit of strategy, and eventually, over a substantial number of games, some defensive replacements are going to make a meaningful difference. Read the rest of this entry »

One of this winter’s top free agents crossed himself off the list over the weekend, as Edwin Díaz signed a five-year, $102 million contract to remain the Mets’ closer. Díaz was absolutely dominant this season, striking out nearly two batters an inning, resulting in a FIP under 1.00, and avoiding any of the walk or home run flurries that occasionally have marred his résumé. While I’m not particularly a fan of the save stat or the conclusions drawn as a result, him only blowing three saves in 2022 accurately reflects his dominance; he only allowed multiple runs in a single appearance all year, and all three of his blown saves occurred with one-run leads. The deal comes with a $12 million signing bonus, a team option at $20 million for a sixth season, a no-trade provision, and an opt-out after 2025.

Star closer Edwin Díaz and the New York Mets are in agreement on a five-year, $102 million contract, pending physical, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN. There’s an opt-out and a full no-trade clause, plus a sixth-year option. The best closer in baseball stays in New York.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 6, 2022

Generally speaking, when a pitcher has a microscopic ERA, there’s some measure of luck involved; nobody’s long-term baseline expectation is an ERA of 1.31. So it naturally amuses me that Díaz arguably underperformed his peripherals this season. How often does a pitcher with an ERA that excellent actually have a FIP nearly half a run lower? Not very.

Going back to the start of 1901, there have been only 35 player-seasons in which a pitcher had an ERA under 2.00 and had a FIP lower than their ERA (out of 796 possible player-seasons). Only Gagne and Kimbrel had lower ERAs in seasons during which they failed to match their FIP; the average FIP for a pitcher with an ERA between 1.01 and 1.51 is 2.30. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s time to conclude the series on position player arm strength with the most impressive of them all: catchers. It was a joy covering infielders and outfielders, but it’s time for backstops to have the spotlight. They might now throw quite as hard as their position player counterparts, but let’s keep in mind that they do what they do out of a squat with no room for error. They can’t bobble, hesitate, or mess up their footwork and need to receive the ball and deliver it to second base in less than two seconds.

Let’s set some ground rules for the next iteration of this exercise. Baseball Savant sets their default minimum number of attempts to qualify on the pop time leaderboard at five, so we’ll stick with that. There’s thorough research that explains arm strength as the main component in pop time; because of this, I put strong value into it. Exchange speed still matters, but in this case, it’s more interesting to see how a player moves his body to take advantage of his arm strength.

Anyway, after sorting through the top of the leaderboard, I searched for clips of plays where the catcher especially needed his arm or just made so perfect of a throw that I couldn’t resist talking about it.

Christian Bethancourt (no. 1 overall, 88.3 mph)

There is a new king on top of the catcher arm strength throne, and his name is Christian Bethancourt. That’s not too shocking; he threw in the mid-90s off the mound.

One thing about this particular caught stealing that I find very cool: we get to see how big of a jump Will Brennan got off Corey Kluber. With that jump and a 78-mph sweeper to handle, Bethancourt had no business making this play. The difference is how he perfectly cheats with a slight quarter turn of his torso as he’s waiting for the pitch to come in. It’s usually difficult to do this move in the heat of the game, but he knew it was the only chance he had to catch the runner.

Typically a catcher would let the ball travel further than this, but Bethancourt’s loopy, pitcher-like arm swing means his low transfer is the most efficient for his body and mechanics. After the smooth transfer, he placed a seed right on top of the bag for Wander Franco. Impeccable mechanics with no room for error. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to the offseason. As is customary, the end of the playoffs means the release of FanGraphs’ annual top 50 free agent rankings. In recent years, we’ve rotated through the writers principally responsible for the list – first Dave Cameron, then Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and, more recently, me. I’m back this year and I’ve brought help: the FanGraphs staff contributed mightily to this piece.

Below, I’ve provided contract estimates and rankings of the winter’s top free agents, along with market-focused breakdowns for the top 25 players. That could be a quick discussion of where a player might sign, what a team might look for, or even just statistical analysis masquerading as market analysis – I’m an analyst at heart and never stray far from my roots. Meanwhile, a combination of Michael Baumann, Justin Choi, Jay Jaffe, David Laurila, Eric Longenhagen, Dan Szymborski, and Jon Tayler supplied player-focused breakdowns, which are designed to provide some context for each player at this moment in his career. Special thanks to David Appelman, Sean Dolinar, Jason Martinez, and Meg Rowley for their help behind the scenes.

The players are ranked in the order in which I prefer them. That’s often the same as ranking them in contract order, but not always. In some cases, I prefer a player I expect will get less money over one who stands to make more. I’ll generally make note of that in the accompanying comment, but just to reiterate, this list isn’t exclusively sorted by descending average annual value or anything like that. All of the dollar amounts are estimated guarantees. Plenty of contracts will include team options or player incentives, but those aren’t included in these estimates. Player opt outs are similarly not included. All of the projections are Steamer 2023 projections, but use our Depth Chart playing time allocations. The lone exception is Kodai Senga, whose projection comes courtesy of ZiPS. The listed ages indicate the age-season the player is about to play. Read the rest of this entry »