In Tuesday’s otherwise lopsided rout by the Phillies, Nick Castellanos collected a pair of hits off Aaron Nola. With that, he extended his hitting streak to 18 games, thus surpassing his personal best and breaking a tie with Jose Altuve for the majors’ longest streak of this season. The Reds’ right fielder isn’t just hot all of a sudden, however. He’s been raking since Opening Day, and entered Thursday with his .361 batting average, .644 slugging percentage, 185 wRC+, and 2.9 WAR all sitting atop the NL leaderboards, a big step up from last year’s disappointing campaign.

The 29-year-old Castellanos, who signed a four-year, $64 million deal with the Reds in January 2020, hit just .225/.298/.486 in his first season in Cincinnati. He did play every game and bopped 14 homers while helping the Reds to their first playoff appearance since 2013, but his hot start (.340/.411/.840 through 14 games) quickly faded. His final 102 wRC+ was his lowest mark since 2015, his 28.5% strikeout rate represented a career high, and all told, his 0.4 WAR made it a pretty forgettable season.

Castellanos turned the page on 2020 by homering and doubling off the Cardinals’ Jack Flaherty on Opening Day and adding three more homers (plus two doubles and a triple) in the Reds’ next five games; he didn’t strike out for the first time until the team’s fifth game of the season. That week was a particularly colorful one, as his hop-skip-bat-flip sequence on Opening Day led to a retaliatory hit-by-pitch the next day, followed by an in-your-face flexing gesture after he came around to score, and then a bench-clearing brawl and a two-game suspension that made the powers that be look like stick-in-the-muds.

As silly as the suspension was, it halted Castellanos’ brief slump; he resumed raking upon returning, collecting 10 hits (including two homers) over his next six games. On May 2, he went 5-for-6 against the Cubs, with two homers as well as a walk-off RBI single in the 10th inning. On May 12, he began his hitting streak by going 2-for-4 with a walk against the Pirates. Over his 18-game jag, he’s hit .464/.532/.710 with three homers in 79 plate appearance, and overall he’s at .361/.416/.644 with 12 homers. Read the rest of this entry »

At the beginning of May, I wrote two articles about the slightly-deadened baseball’s effect on league-wide home run rates. The conclusion was pretty much exactly what you’d expect: A bouncier ball with more drag did reduce home runs, particularly among softer-hit balls at lower launch angles. In 2019, these events were the wall scrapers that barely went out of the yard. In 2021, these events are now doubles and outs, with the increase in fly outs likely contributing (at least somewhat) to baseball’s diminished run environment overall.

There were a handful of outstanding questions that I still had, one of which was the impact of the new baseball on a ballpark-by-ballpark basis. Though league-wide trends are certainly an interesting and informative way to see the effects of a new baseball on run scoring, it is also important to examine in which parks hitters are having a more difficult time getting the ball into the seats. That allows us to understand better how park effects may have been altered to different degrees as a result of MLB’s switch to the new baseball.

But it’s not just the baseball that is contributing here. MLB reportedly added humidors to five stadiums for the 2021 season, bringing the total league-wide to 10. The Rockies, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Mets, and Red Sox already had humidors in their stadiums pre-2021, but which five teams are new to that list has yet to be disclosed. We can only guess which parks now have them, but it is important to keep in mind that the ball is not the only difference.

Also important to remember when looking at ballpark-level data: The players on the home team make a huge difference in determining home run rates. It’s entirely possible that, between 2019 and ’21, a team added home run hitters to its lineup or acquired home run-adverse pitchers for its staff, or the opposite could also be true. To mitigate these effects, I only analyzed a specific slice of fly balls: those hit at an exit velocity at or above 95.0 mph, at an exit velocity below 110.0 mph, and at a launch angle below 30 degrees — the very fly balls most impacted by the new baseball in my prior analysis. I also only included fly balls hit in games on or before May 31 to control for weather effects. (That is why I am comparing 2019 to ’21.)

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The Rays have been one of the hottest teams in the majors the past few months and have surged to the top of the American League East standings mostly on the back on the club’s offense. Since May 15, the team has posted a combined 132 wRC+, a figure that would easily lead baseball over this span if it weren’t for the Blue Jays (who boast a 145 wRC+). Given their propensity to not invest in their club’s payroll at levels even close to league average, the Rays often have the feeling of a faceless club. But they do have a few notable position players who you would expect to be leading the charge as they have been blitzing the league.

Without looking, which player is leading the team in WAR? Is it postseason folk-hero Randy Arozarena? What about Austin Meadows or Brandon Lowe who have both led the team in position player WAR in recent seasons? The answer, to my surprise, is utility infielder Joey Wendle with 1.7 WAR.

Wendle was traded to the Rays from the Athletics for a Player To Be Named Later following the 2017 season. In parts of four seasons with the Rays including 2021, Wendle has compiled 7.3 WAR in 1,163 plate appearances, which prorates to about 4.1 WAR per 650 plate appearances (a proxy for a normal season with regular playing time). He is a player who is likely anonymous to the casual fan mostly due to his deployment. As part of the Rays infielder mob, he has only stepped up to the plate on 545, 263, and 184 occasions the past three seasons (note that the 184 PAs came during the pandemic-shortened season). And you never know where to look for him; in his Rays tenure, he has appeared mostly at second and third base but also at shortstop and in left field. One might call him the quintessential Rays player. Wendle is versatile and quietly productive. Read the rest of this entry »

Rick Kranitz knows the art of pitching. Now in his third season as the pitching coach for the Atlanta Braves, he’s been tutoring hurlers for over three decades, with roughly half of those years spent at the big-league level. Prior to assuming his current position in December 2018, the 62-year-old “Kranny” served in that role for the Florida Marlins, Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee Brewers, and Philadelphia Phillies.

Kranitz talked pitching when the Braves visited Fenway Park last week.

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David Laurila: Pitching has never been better. Does that make a pitching coach’s job any easier?

Rick Kranitz: “I wouldn’t say it’s easier. Number one, this is a very hard game. A lot of it is built on failure — you can make a good pitch and something doesn’t happen quite right — but you still have to go out there and execute. The biggest thing for me is getting them to believe in who they are and what they can do. It’s a lot of mental stuff, having them prepared to execute what they need to execute.

“A lot of hitters — in recent history, for sure — have the same swing paths, which we can attack similarly. But there are also guys… like this Boston club we’re playing now. They’re very difficult, because they do a lot of different things. They have a lot of situational hitters who look for pitches, so you can’t just do the same thing over and over again. But I think I know what you’re alluding to. Back in the day, it was ill-advised to throw three of the same pitches in the same area. Nowadays, with the swing path, you can get after that a little bit more against a lot of guys. For sure.”

Laurila: Is that a big part of why your staff dominated the Cincinnati Reds last October? Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Shildt had a decision to make. It was only the first inning, but the Brewers were all over Daniel Ponce de Leon. They’d already scored three times, and had runners on second and third for number eight hitter Luis Urías. A hit here could break the game open, so Shildt took a risk and intentionally walked Urías. With a pitcher batting next, maybe he could salvage the inning.

There was just one problem: Daniel Ponce de Leon was pitching. His 11.6% walk rate this year has actually lowered his career mark. Not only that, but he’d already walked a batter unintentionally this inning, though it’s unclear whether that’s predictive. Either way, though, whoops:

Maybe that was a strike, and maybe it wasn’t. In any case, it turned into a run, and the game eventually turned into a Brewers rout. The Cardinals scored only three runs; as it turns out, the first inning was all Milwaukee needed. Urías didn’t have a hit on the day, not that that’s a particularly telling statistic.

Normally, I’d break down the pros and cons of Shildt’s decision in minute detail. Avoiding Urías and his career .318 OBP to face a pitcher seems good. Turning a walk into a run with Ponce de Leon on the mound seems bad. It’s certainly not a slam dunk in either direction. Read the rest of this entry »

On Monday night, the Dodgers and Cardinals began a three-game series in Chavez Ravine. Los Angeles had just been soundly defeated in a four-game set against the Giants over the weekend and had fallen to third in the NL West. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were barely hanging on to the division lead in the NL Central and were entering the tail end of a long, 10-game road trip.

In the top of the sixth inning, St. Louis scored three runs on two home runs off of Trevor Bauer to take a 3-2 lead. The Dodgers came right back in the bottom half of the inning, loading the bases and scoring the tying run off a bases loaded walk to Will Smith. Génesis Cabrera then struck out Gavin Lux for the second out, bringing up Chris Taylor. Taylor wound up battling Cabrera in a 14-pitch at-bat that ended with a bases-clearing double. The play was the second biggest swing in win probability in the game — Dylan Carlson’s two-run home run in the top half of the inning was the biggest — and it gave the Dodgers a lead they wouldn’t relinquish.

This epic at-bat was the turning point in the game but it also serves as a perfect example of how Taylor has adjusted his approach at the plate. Back in 2017, Taylor broke out after languishing in the Mariners farm system as a slap-hitting, glove-first middle infield prospect. After compiling a not-very-nice 69 wRC+ across three partial seasons and just over 300 plate appearances, he posted a 126 wRC+ that year with a huge spike in power output. A swing change to generate more contact in the air was the catalyst for that first breakout.

Taylor struggled to replicate that same level of success over the next two seasons; his wRC+ dropped to 111 over the next two years, though he continued to be an extremely valuable piece of the Dodgers roster due to his positional flexibility. Last year, he increased his walk rate by more than three points and had his most productive season at the plate, pushing his wRC+ up to 132. He’s been even better this year; his 149 wRC+ is 18th among all 144 qualified batters. Read the rest of this entry »

There are a lot of ways you can introduce a person. You can talk about their appearance, traits, maybe even their likes or dislikes. Tasked with breaking the ice on Marlins reliever Richard Bleier, though, this is how I would start. From 2016 to ’19, here’s his yearly strikeout rate versus the league average:

Bleier had been famous for not generating strikeouts, zigging when other prolific relievers were zagging. It makes sense when you consider his repertoire, which consisted mostly of a sinker, a cutter, and the occasional changeup or slider. The sinker led the charge, inducing a copious amount of grounders, while the other offerings were mixed in to throw hitters off-guard. The strategy worked, too. Bleier boasted a 1.97 ERA and 3.59 FIP in 119 innings between 2016 and ’18, and while his 2019 returned uncharacteristic results (a 5.32 ERA and 4.19 FIP), nothing suggested a fatal flaw. Sometimes, you have a bad year.

I’ve established Bleier as someone who thrives on weak contact. But you’ve read the title. One of the perks of being a baseball writer is getting to revisit the FanGraphs pages of players you’re fond of, as work. It’s like catching up with an old friend. I hadn’t paid attention to Bleier in a while, so imagine my surprise when I stumbled upon this development:

Weird, right? Most of the time, this type of breakout is the result of pitchers refining their already electric stuff, like Matt Barnes or Dustin May; their strikeout rates climb from average to great. But consider Bleier, whose dramatic increase has brought him just up to par, with a current strikeout rate of 24.3% that is a mere 0.1 points higher than the league average of 24.2%.

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In a rotation already stretched thin by injury, the last thing the Cardinals needed was to lose their top starter for an extended period. But that’s what happened on Monday night in Los Angeles as Jack Flaherty left his start against the Dodgers after five innings due to tightness in his left side and was placed on the injured list on Tuesday with an oblique strain that will likely sideline him for several weeks.

Matched up against Trevor Bauer, Flaherty allowed only two hits — back-to-back solo homers by Gavin Lux and Chris Taylor — while striking out nine and walking one over the course of five innings and 83 pitches. He reportedly felt some discomfort on his final pitches and then appeared to aggravate the injury while swinging the bat in the top of the sixth inning. Ain’t this single-season return of pitchers hitting great?

Flaherty didn’t take the bat off his shoulder after that 0–1 foul ball, striking out looking. He gave way to reliever Ryan Helsley in the bottom of the frame even as his teammates scored three runs off Bauer to take a 3–2 lead, but the Dodgers got their licks against Helsley and the rest of the Cardinals’ shaky bullpen and won 9–4.

Regarding Flaherty’s injury, manager Mike Shildt told reporters on Tuesday, “It’s not a minimal situation. It’s a real strain, tear, I don’t know which grade (they) want to call it. It’s significant that Jack is going to miss some time. And it’s going to be awhile. We’re still in the exploratory stage to determine how long.”

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Jacob deGrom‘s already microscopic ERA needs even a stronger microscope to spy it after his outing Monday, a six-inning shutout against the Arizona Diamondbacks that lowered his ERA to 0.71. We’re no longer in April, and we’re not even in May, so this new level of dominance can’t be easily ignored as the product of a small sample. Once performance of this magnitude reaches June intact — and 0.71 is deGrom’s second-highest seasonal ERA after the end of an outing — you have to seriously give at least a thought to the prospect of a pitcher making a run at Bob Gibson’s live-ball ERA record.

We had a chance at this happening last year, thanks to the asteriskesque 2020 season and its 60-game slate, shortened as a consequence of COVID-19. I talked about the possibility going into last season, with ZiPS projecting a one-in-four shot of someone catching Gibson’s 1.12. Nobody did it in the end, but Shane Bieber’s 1.63 was the one of the best ERAs for a qualifying pitcher since Gibson’s in 1968. Bieber and Trevor Bauer, the two pitchers who came closest, fell well short of Gibson but given the relatively high levels of league offense, their efforts were enough to get them the third and fourth spots on the all-time single-season ERA+ ranks.

Catching Gibson in a 60-game season would have been an accomplishment, but not really a full one. Records are naturally set in conditions that benefit players, and Gibson was no exception: 1968 was dubbed the Year of the Pitcher thanks to a league ERA of 2.98, nearly a half-run lower than any season since the spitball was banned. Gibson’s 258 ERA+, which takes into account league offense, still sits atop the leaderboard, but at least it doesn’t utterly wreck the recent field, which consists of Pedro Martinez (243, 1999), Roger Clemens (227, 1997), and Zack Greinke (227, 2015) among others.

But since 2021 is a full 162-game season, catching a 1.12 ERA would feel a lot less like sneaking in through a loophole. A significant drop-off in league offense (to a 4.02 ERA) could be credited for an assist, but it’s not a number that is unfair relative to baseball history. So, can he do it?

deGrom has missed a few starts so far in 2021, with no apparent ill results to his performance, and the Mets have been cautious with his pitch totals; he’s averaged fewer than 70 pitches in his last three starts. That’s beneficial to his chances, as no star pitcher has a long-term ability to keep their ERA that low, even Gibson; just clearing the one-inning-per-team-game requirement optimizes things. deGrom will likely end up with around 30 games started this season, so a good place to begin in gauging his odds is to see if anyone’s come close to 1.12 in a span of 30 games starts, crossing over seasons, since 1920. I’m only listing unique 30-game runs since there is naturally quite a bit of overlap in runs:

Gibson’s best 30-game span was even better than his 1.12 ERA, dipping under one. J.R. Richard’s presence on this list is especially cruel, as his 30-game span ended with the final game of his major league career. Before Richard’s next start, he suffered a stroke caused by a blood clot, and while he attempted a comeback a few years later in the minors, he was no longer the same pitcher.

Nobody catches 1.12 on this list, but many come close enough that the result is at least plausible. Jake Arrieta was only a run from accomplishing the feat. deGrom himself appears on this list, his 30-game span running from April 21, 2018, through April 3, 2019. His 1.40 ERA over 30 starts comes out to an ERA+ of 266 in a higher run environment (by about a tenth of a run) than 2021 so far. A tenth of a run isn’t a lot, but to break a record like this, every advantage helps. Yes, Mets fans, I see that 10-9 record for deGrom over that stretch.

To get an idea of deGrom’s probability of finishing with an ERA of 1.12 or better, I worked with a technique I’ve used in the past, which “simulates” a season using Monte Carlo algorithms and a smoothed model of a pitcher’s starts based on their projections and historical usage. At 189.2 innings (what he has in the bag, plus the 22 starts of 6.3 innings per start in his depth chart projections), he needs to allow 23 or fewer runs or a 1.23 ERA for the rest of the season. At 162 total innings, he’d have to maintain a 1.30 ERA the rest of the way.

deGrom’s no slam-dunk to catch Gibson, but he’s got a fighting chance, with my model estimating a 3.1% chance to beat a 1.12 ERA, or more precisely, Gibson’s 1.122538 (no cheating with rounding here!). That’s about 31-to-1, a little better than getting the exact number in roulette and roughly the probability of a 20-homer hitter getting a round-tripper in any given at-bat. In other words, it’s more likely than not that he falls short of the feat, but it’s definitely possible and firmly in the realm of plausibility.

Jacob deGrom is having the best run of his career and quickly developing a Hall of Fame case based on Koufax-levels of peak performance. Catching Bob Gibson would be a fantastic sentence on a plaque in Cooperstown. Hopefully, the Mets’ offense has the decency to give him more than 10 wins if it should come to pass!

Adbert Alzolay has been one of the few pleasant surprises for the Cubs this season. Through his first two major league stints across 2019 and ’20, he walked 15% of the batters he faced in 33.2 innings of work, most of which was in the starting rotation. Even when striking out 28.6% of opposing hitters, handing out free passes at such a high rate is not a sustainable way of working through a lineup and keeping runs off the scoreboard and without the aid of a .263 BABIP in those 33.2 innings, Alzolay’s results would have been even more concerning. Meanwhile the Cubs, after years of contending and struggling to develop pitchers internally, were bereft of exciting arms on the right side of the aging curve. This past offseason, ownership refused to spend in any meaningful way and the club was forced to ship out Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish for Zach Davies and a few prospects in the low minors. They did sign Jake Arrieta to a $6.5 million deal coming off a disappointing stint with the Phillies, but that signing represented Chicago’s most significant investment in pitching this offseason. These moves and circumstances meant that Alzolay would need to take a big step forward in 2021 if the Cubs wanted to remain competitive with the Cardinals and Brewers in what seemed to be a winnable AL Central.

But expecting Alzolay to make a substantial leap in terms of his control took some wishful thinking if you were scouting the statline. At his last stop in Triple-A in 2019, Alzolay walked 11% of batters in 65.1 innings. That figure is obviously better than the 15% he posted in his first innings in the majors, but it would still be a below average rate and that was while facing worse competition. For Alzolay to even have an average walk rate, he would have to cut his 2019 Triple-A rate by at least 20%, all while facing better competition. The odds were certainly not in his favor.

Miraculously, he has made the necessary adjustment. In 49.2 innings in 2021, Alzolay is now walking only 5.2% of batters in an environment where the league average is about 9%. Not only has he shaved his previous major-league rate by two thirds, but his 2021 mark now represents an elite figure, one that’s in the 88th percentile of all pitchers per Baseball Savant. Better yet, he has barely sacrificed any strikeouts. As I said in the introduction, Alzolay had a career 28.6% strikeout rate coming into 2021. This season, that rate is still a well-above average at 26.3%, especially relative to other starting pitchers. He has also increased the rate at which he induces groundballs (38.3% prior to this season, 45.7% in 2021), which should offset some of the strikeouts he has lost as he tries to hone his command. All of this has culminated in a 3.81 ERA through nine starts despite a bloated 20% HR/FB rate, the latter figure driving the massive difference between his FIP (4.21) and xFIP (a sterling 3.41). Read the rest of this entry »