Archive for Daily Graphings

Kyle Finnegan Is Back in Washington

Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports

The 2024 season was a big one for Kyle Finnegan, or at least it started that way. On the strength of a 2.45 ERA and 25 saves, the Nationals’ closer made his first All-Star team (he finished the year with 38 saves, good for second in the National League). Yet he struggled in the second half, and in November, the Nationals non-tendered him rather than risk a trip through arbitration. On Tuesday — the same day I highlighted his continued free agency within this roundup — he returned to the fold nonetheless on a one-year, $6 million contract.

The deal, which is pending a physical and a 40-man roster move at this writing, is not yet official. Given that Finnegan made $5.1 million last year, the new contract constitutes about an 18% raise for the 33-year-old righty. However, in his annual projections for arbitration-eligible players at MLB Trade Rumors, Matt Swartz estimated that Finnegan would land a salary of $8.6 million, just shy of a 69% raise, because saves play well in arbitration. The view that Finnegan got something of a raw deal by this process is offset by the fact that he did get to test free agency a year ahead of schedule, only to find the market for his services limited enough to make a return his best option. Among the other 29 teams, the Cubs appeared to show the most interest.

Earlier this month, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo told reporters that the team had kept in touch with Finnegan “throughout the offseason.” He likely lingered on the market because his profile and his performance both have some notable dings. Conceptually, Finnegan is basically a two-pitch pitcher, with a four-seam fastball that averaged 97.2 mph in 2024, and a splitter that has replaced his slider as his main secondary pitch over the past couple of seasons. By the pitch models, the fastball is about average, while the splitter is above-average but short of being a true plus pitch. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, and while he generates a healthy share of groundballs, he gives up a lot of hard contact. Read the rest of this entry »


Triston Casas Is Looking To Create Power From a Smaller Space

Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Triston Casas is making some changes with his left-handed stroke, and he’s doing so with the Green Monster in mind. The Boston Red Sox slugger has historically used the entire field — his pull-center-oppo numbers last season were 38.5%, 38.5%, and 23.0%, respectively — but he wants to take even better advantage of his home park. Bashing with arms bent will be part of that process… at least for now. Compared to his many of his contemporaries, Casas can be a bit of chameleon when it comes to fine-tuning his swing.

Always engaging when discussing his craft — last summer’s Triston Casas Talks Hitting Training and August 2023’s Triston Casas Embraces the Science of Hitting are good examples — the 25-year-old first baseman discussed his current efforts at Red Sox camp earlier this week.

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David Laurila: You’re making some adjustments at the plate. What are they?

Triston Casas: “It’s more an approach of keeping my swing inside my frame. I want to have the angles of my body — my hips and my shoulders — in alignment, and try to make sure that I’m making contact inside my body. I want to feel like I’m hitting with my arms bent at a certain point.

“As a hitter, you need that triple extension. Your wrists, your front leg, and your back hip are all perfect, at the right time, as you’re making contact. That’s where you get the power.”

Laurila: Can you elaborate on hitting with your arms bent? Read the rest of this entry »


Is a Yainer Diaz Breakout Coming?

Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Catcher is a thankless job. If you do it successfully, perfectly even, that means that you’re letting highly paid professionals whip projectiles at you as hard as they can hundreds of times a day. Sometimes, other highly paid professionals will divert these projectiles toward you at the last second, or inadvertently hit you with the giant wooden sticks they’re carrying. You have to dive around and flail your limbs, because the only thing worse than getting hit by one of these balls is not getting hit by them; letting them fly by hurts your team. People try to steal from you constantly, so while you’re trying to catch a rock-hard 100-mph pellet, you also have to scan your peripherals. And if all of that isn’t bad enough, here’s the worst part: Sometimes your manager chooses to start Martín Maldonado ahead of you.

I kid, of course, but I’m writing about Yainer Diaz today, and his gradual phase-in to the major leagues is a key part of his major league career so far. Diaz burst onto the big league scene in 2023 with the kind of approach that makes hitting instructors wince, then shrug their shoulders and nod. He swung early and often, took big hacks, and generally acted like he was allergic to taking walks or hitting singles. It worked. He clobbered 23 homers in only 377 plate appearances, spraying loud contact to all fields. He played better-than-expected defense, too, belying his early scouting reports.

Despite that excellent rookie season, Diaz couldn’t displace an aging Maldonado as the team’s primary catcher; he took some reps at DH, but lost those as well when the team got healthy. By the playoffs, he was an afterthought, a pure backup catcher. But when Maldonado (and manager Dusty Baker) departed in the offseason, Diaz ascended to a starting job. Then he struggled – through the All-Star break, he was hitting a so-so .284/.308/.409 with iffy defense. If you’re more of a WAR person, that’s 1.1 WAR, not great. Here’s one story you could tell about Yainer Diaz: a prospect who struggled to break through with regular playing time.
Read the rest of this entry »


The Running of the Bell

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Michelle Yeoh is one of the greatest actors working today. How do I know that? It’s not her 40-year career, the 50-plus films on her résumé, or the Academy Award in her trophy case. No, it’s the fact that she was cast in the film adaptation of Wicked, one of the most beloved musicals on the planet, despite having no previous vocal training or singing experience. She told director Jon M. Chu as much before she agreed to join the cast: “You know Jon, I don’t sing.” With all due respect, it shows.

If you haven’t already seen Wicked, well, you should hurry up, because the Oscars are on Sunday. At the very least, take a listen to “The Wizard and I,” in which Yeoh sings alongside Broadway star and Academy Award nominee Cynthia Erivo. Their pairing is the vocal equivalent of the “unfinished horse drawing” meme. Yet, within the context of the entire film, Yeoh makes it work. Her acting is so strong, her portrayal of Madame Morrible so complete and convincing, that by the end of the movie, it’s hard to imagine anyone else in the role. She might have a dark blue slider bar in the Vocal Runs Above Average section of her Cinema Savant page, but her overall performance was well above replacement level.

There are surely some passionate musical theatre fans who took umbrage at the casting of a non-singer in a singing role. I don’t count myself among them. I think there is something wonderful about the idea that someone can use their strengths to overcome their weaknesses. It’s nice to know a person doesn’t have to be skilled at every part of an activity to be altogether successful. On that note, here’s what it looks like when professional baseball player Josh Bell tries to run: Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Check In on Brandon Lowe

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Back in the days before Junior Caminero — even in the days before Wander Franco — there was Brandon Lowe, a 5-foot-10 second baseman who anchored the Tampa Bay Rays’ lineup during its most fecund period. As the Rays made the playoffs five years in a row from 2019 to 2023, and won the pennant in 2020, Lowe was at the center of it. He posted a 151 wRC+ in 2020, and a year later he hit 39 home runs.

That’s tied for the second-most homers in a season in Rays history, up among a bunch of guys (Carlos Pena, Logan Morrison, Jose Canseco) who are so big they could fit Lowe in their jacket pocket.

Now, as Caminero is bashing his way into the everyday lineup, Lowe is at an inflection point in his career. He’s struggled to stay healthy the past three years, and he turns 31 in July. And because everything the Rays touch has to be viewed through this lens: Lowe is in the final guaranteed season of his seven-year contract. His 2026 club option is quite affordable, even for Tampa Bay ($11.5 million), but there’s only one option year. Read the rest of this entry »


Still on the Shelves, Part II: Top Remaining Free Agent Pitchers

Bill Streicher and Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Jose Quintana spent much of the 2024 season as the weak link in the Mets’ rotation. Through August 20 — a point when I happened to check in at Citi Field — he was lit for a 4.57 ERA and 5.13 FIP in 25 starts covering 134 innings. But after that date, just when the Mets needed him the most, he went on a roll, allowing five runs (three earned) over his next eight starts totaling 47 1/3 innings; the last two of those starts were the Wild Card and Division Series clinchers. Though he was shellacked by the Dodgers in his NLCS start, he was hardly alone in that regard.

Despite his high-profile hot streak, Quintana has yet to find a home for 2025. After making $13 million in each of his past two seasons, the 36-year-old southpaw reportedly rebuffed an offer from the Pirates that was larger than the $5.25 million deal to which Andrew Heaney agreed last week. While a return to the Mets might appear to be in order now that Sean Manaea will miss a chunk of April due to an oblique strain — that following the loss of Frankie Montas to a high-grade lat strain that could keep him out until mid May or later — the team doesn’t appear ready to add another starter from outside the organization.

As the Pirates’ turn from Quintana (who pitched for them in 2022) to Heaney illustrates, teams in search of starters at this late stage still have multiple options from among the current crop of free agents, and they’re somewhat interchangeable, unlike last year, when two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and 2023 postseason stud Jordan Montgomery didn’t sign until mid March (though the latter’s deal hasn’t work out very well). The starters I’m highlighting in this companion piece to my position player roundup are guys who can eat significant innings at the back of a rotation, while the relievers have plenty of late-inning experience. In contrast to the position player piece, where I tried to connect the dots to potential employers either based on previous reporting or spitballing, here I’ll note that most teams besides the Dodgers could use another fourth- or fifth-starter option or a bullpen arm, and where these guys land could depend upon the injuries that befall pitching staffs before Opening Day. Help is just a phone call away. Read the rest of this entry »


Don’t Mistake Passivity for Judgment

David Richard-Imagn Images

Last week, I wrote about the careers of the two former college baseball players who have been featured on this season of Love Is Blind, and don’t worry, I’m not going to follow up with a detailed breakdown of their performance on the episodes released this past weekend. (Though if anyone wants the short version: It’s been pretty dire. Ben is getting flamed on TikTok so bad his fiancée is thinking about pulling the plug, while Dave… I don’t know what you’re doing, man. Get it together. You’re in your mid-30s. You should be able to have a frank, productive conversation with your partner.)

I bring all this up because it’s been hard to shake something I mentioned in Friday’s article: Ben Mezzenga’s astonishingly high incidence of taking strike three. In his best years, only about half of his strikeouts came swinging. A typical big league hitter strikes out three times swinging for every time he strikes out looking. Last year, José Ramírez ran a ratio north of 15-to-1, the highest mark in baseball. Cavan Biggio was the only hitter who had 50 or more strikeouts with more than half of them coming with the bat on his shoulder. Read the rest of this entry »


The Mets Need More Pitchers Already

Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

You have to hand it to the Mets. There really does seem to be something ineffable that brings drama to Queens. No, I don’t mean the LOLMets meme, the belief that things will find a way to break every year, because I don’t really think it’s true. The Mets aren’t cursed. But they do have a way of making things interesting. It’s never all smooth sailing, but they’re never completely down and out either. There’s always a little more to explore at Citi Field, and this offseason is no exception. The Mets are on top of the world, because they signed Juan Soto, one of the biggest free agent prizes of all time. And they have their backs to the wall, because two pitchers they signed to assemble a playoff rotation are already injured.

Frankie Montas was the first casualty. He felt discomfort after his very first bullpen session of spring training, and a lat sprain means that he won’t be able to throw for another 5-7 weeks. Given that the regular season is five weeks away, and that Montas had done essentially no buildup before his injury, we’re talking about multiple months of absence.

The good news is the Mets built their rotation this offseason to withstand injuries. After all, Montas wasn’t the most prominent starting pitcher they signed this winter. Sean Manaea holds that distinction; he was the best pitcher on last year’s team, and though he hit free agency, he signed a three-year deal worth $75 million to come back. That’s not quite ace money in today’s game, which is perfect: Manaea’s not quite an ace, just a solid playoff starter with upside. Except, he’s also hurt now. After feeling some discomfort of his own, an MRI revealed a right oblique strain.
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What Would a Vladito Contract Look Like?

Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

In a generally bleak 2024 season for the Toronto Blue Jays, one of the few bright spots in that Kafkaesque wasteland was the return of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a force to be reckoned with in the lineup. Guerrero followed up his MVP-caliber performance in 2021 with a solid-but-underwhelming 2022 season and a below-average 2023, and there were real questions about his value as a player as he neared his expected free agency after the 2025 campaign. His .323/.396/.544, 165 wRC+, 5.5 WAR line last year was a dramatic demonstration that his 2021 season was a lot more than a stone-cold fluke. Free agency beckons, and the Blue Jays are down to the last year of his services before he reaches the open market. Guerrero set the deadline to work out an extension with Toronto for February 17, and that date has come and gone without an agreement.

My colleague, and notable non-pitcher, Mike Baumann wrote about the risks and rewards of signing Guerrero to a long-term deal from the perspectives of both parties, so you ought to read that for further exposition on the topic. We’re hear to put the fear into numbers, the numbers into dollars, and the dollars back into fear! Read the rest of this entry »


Still on the Shelves, Part I: Top Remaining Free Agent Position Players

Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Jose Iglesias had something of a dream season in 2024. Out of the majors for all of 2023 – and twice-released at that — he spent the first two months of last season stashed at the Mets’ Triple-A Syracuse affiliate before being recalled on May 31. Out of nowhere, he not only put up a sizzling .337/.381/.448 line while setting a career high with 2.5 WAR, he released a no. 1 Billboard hit single “OMG,” recorded under the stage name Candelita. His on-field performance helped turn the Mets’ season around, with his newfound pop stardom providing some feel-good mojo as well. Yet with spring training in full swing, the 35-year-old infielder remains jobless.

Iglesias is hardly the only player of note who’s still looking for work. What follows here is a quick roundup — by no means comprehensive — of some of the bigger-name position players still on the market, and some potential fits. Coincidentally enough, four of the six I’ve chosen to highlight played for the two New York teams in 2024, but I don’t think there’s a particular East Coast bias here; it’s also worth noting that four of the six got late starts last year due to spring signings or injuries. In a companion piece, I’ll run down the pitchers waiting by the phone as well. I’ve included each player’s Depth Charts projections, though it’s worth noting that their estimated WAR totals are driven by levels of playing time that might well differ depending upon their landing spots. Read the rest of this entry »