Before I say anything, take a look at this Raimel Tapia sac fly, which scored Matt Kemp in the bottom of the ninth at Coors Field last night.

It is incredible how the stakes of professional sports manage to be world-shakingly massive and completely meaningless at the very same time. At stake in any given baseball game is millions of dollars of investment, millions of hours of training, the hopes and dreams of millions of fans, the dedication of entire lifetimes. And yet, the only thing physically at stake is how, exactly, a small leather ball will travel through space: whether it will leave the stadium, or land in the catcher’s glove; whether it will be caught, or hit the grass; whether it will stay firm in the grip of a player’s hand, or slide through it, errant, to go off in some unintended direction. If these physical stakes were not so small, to fail when so much is riding on one’s ability to succeed would be, I imagine, unbearably devastating. But even the most horrible loss is reliably followed by another game — because they are, in the end, games.

That reliable continuity in the face of constant failure can be very reassuring for a normal, non-famous-athlete person. Life, to paraphrase a very unwise man, is literally all we have. And though the stakes of the average person’s everyday activities, taken in the context of the world at large, aren’t very high, they are, in another sense, everything. My small, sad everyday failures are just as small and sad and arbitrary as a ball falling from a glove onto a grass field — but because my life is composed entirely of the everyday and the insignificant, even these failures can seem insurmountable. Yet every day, I watch people who have much more to lose than I do somehow rebound from their inevitable failures to play again, and again, and again. Often, I wonder how they do it. Read the rest of this entry »

For the last 15 years, Yusmeiro Petit has cast a spell over opposing hitters. He’s never thrown hard — his highest average fastball velocity was 89.6 mph in 2017, more than a decade into his career. He’s never been an All-Star, never received award votes. He’s been sketchy at times — his rookie season for the Florida (!) Marlins produced a 9.57 ERA. He didn’t pitch in the majors in 2010 or 2011. Through it all, however, he’s kept going, showed up and provided competent innings. He’s almost 36, and it feels like he might pitch until he’s 80.

That consistency is merely an illusion, however. When Petit first made the majors, he was pretty bad against lefties. Most righties get a little bit worse against left-handed batters; they strike out roughly two percentage points fewer opponents and walk roughly two percentage points more. Petit, on the other hand, turned into a pumpkin:

That split is through the end of 2017. I’m now going to do something that I strongly urge you not to do in your investigations of platoon splits — chop them up into smaller pieces. Since the beginning of the 2018 season, Petit’s platoon splits look different:

It’s a small sample, but I’m inclined to believe it. From 2008 (the beginning of pitch tracking data) to 2017, Petit threw his changeup to lefties 22.1% of the time. Since the beginning of 2018, he’s more or less doubled it, to 41.3%. Changeups are a righty’s best friend against lefties, so the improvement makes sense. Read the rest of this entry »

An unusual season deserves an unusual trade deadline, and that’s what we got yesterday. With one-third of the league all but assured of a playoff spot, teams at the top were reticent to push in their chips for this season. There were a fair number of teams in the middle willing to take a chance on 2020, in contrast to the last few seasons. At the bottom, there were very few teams without a chance to win this season due to the expanded playoff format, which meant there wasn’t a whole lot to choose from for teams looking to get better this year. And while we won’t know the end result of these deals for at least a month (and, in the case of some of the players exchanged, perhaps for years), it doesn’t mean we can’t evaluate teams’ moves based on the information we have today.

With that, let’s get to it.

The Winners

Toronto Blue Jays

While some teams were looking to maximize value beyond the 2020 season, Toronto saw this year’s extra playoff spots as an opportunity and struck, without sending a ton of talent away. The team added two potential starters in Taijuan Walker and Robbie Ray, as well as a starter/swingman type in Ross Stripling. They traded for a nice utility player/stopgap starter in Jonathan Villar. They added to their tower of beef in the lineup with Daniel Vogelbach. Toronto was likely to make the playoffs without adding much, given their 76% playoff odds as we head into September. But with Matt Shoemaker and Nate Pearson sidelined, the club’s depth in the rotation was thinning. Ray and Stripling have struggled this season and Walker hardly provides guaranteed production, but they don’t all have to work out to prove useful to the Blue Jays. The starters added could end up providing strength out of the bullpen or help allow others, like Pearson, to come back in a reliever role and fortify the late-innings. While a playoff berth isn’t a lock, Toronto did what was necessary to shore up a flawed roster in the hopes of playing in October without sacrificing much of the future. Read the rest of this entry »

A day after adding José Martínez, the Cubs continued to deepen their roster by adding Cameron Maybin in a last-minute trade with the Tigers. Heading to Detroit is shortstop Zack Short, the Cubs’ 20th-ranked prospect.

Maybin signed a one-year pact with the Tigers this past offseason after a late-career resurgence with the Yankees in 2019. It was his third stint with the Tigers after debuting with them way back in 2007 and a one-year stop in 2016. This is now the third time they’ve traded him away.

The biggest adjustment Maybin made last year was a swing change to elevate the ball more often without worrying about swinging and missing. Considered a speedy slap hitter for most of his career, he posted a career-high .209 ISO in 269 plate appearances in the Bronx, with an overall offensive contribution 27% higher than league average. His long journey toward these improvements was chronicled by The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler a year ago:

“I wanna play for as long as I can, so I felt like it was necessary for me to take a leap of faith and try something new,” Maybin said. “I’m having fun trying it. I love taking big swings now.”

It’s those “big boy” swings supported by Thames, molded by Wallenbrock and Antariksa, and encouraged by Haniger and Martinez that have turned Maybin from a fleet-footed clubhouse favorite to an unexpectedly productive part of the outfield depth on a first-place team. It took more than a decade in the league to find this version of himself as a hitter, but the evolution was fruitful.

Maybin set plenty of career bests in his half-season with the Yankees. His groundball rate dropped to 41.2% and his hard-hit rate was higher than ever. With all that hard contact in the air came a career-high strikeout rate, but the additional damage he was able to do on contact made the trade-off worth it.

Maybin hasn’t enjoyed the same success this year, but he’s been limited to just 45 plate appearances after missing time with a quad injury earlier in the season. In his limited time with the Tigers, Maybin’s groundball rate spiked back up to 60.7%, but his hard-hit and strikeout rates were higher than ever. With just 28 batted balls this season, though, that groundball rate could drop quickly with a handful of batted balls in the air. Even more encouraging is Maybin’s barrel rate, which is up to 14.3% in this limited sample.

With Steven Souza Jr. sidelined due to a strained hamstring and Kris Bryant on the mend from a finger injury, Maybin provides some much-needed depth to the Cubs bench. He’ll likely take the place of Albert Almora Jr., who has really struggled since a promising debut back in 2016. The right-handed-hitting Maybin could make a good platoon partner with the left-handed Jason Heyward (.238 wOBA vs LHP this year).

In Zack Short, the Tigers get a major-league ready utility infielder. He’s shown excellent plate discipline skills throughout his time in the Cubs organization, though his strikeout rates have ballooned as he reached the higher minor league levels. Here’s Eric Longenhagen’s report from this year’s Cubs prospect list:

Short struck out at an alarming rate last year, much more than he ever has before (32% last year, 21% career). Some of that may have been due to a smaller sample of at-bats, as he missed much of 2019 with a hand injury. He has good ball/strike recognition, hits the ball in the air consistently, and is a capable defender all over the infield, including at short. He’s now on the Cubs 40-man and I think he’s a big league ready utility man.

The Tigers already have a number of these types of utility infielders on their major league roster in Willi Castro and Harold Castro. Short will probably get an opportunity to differentiate himself from the two Castros this year with the deep 28-man roster.

A year ago, Cleveland traded Trevor Bauer to Cincinnati, with the Padres also involved to complete the deal. A little over a year later, another very good pitcher is on the move and San Diego and Cleveland are again both involved. Mike Clevinger was sent home earlier this season after violating COVID-19 safety protocols and now he’s heading to San Diego for a monster haul, with Robert Murray reporting that Clevinger was on the move first. The full deal according to Ken Rosenthal is:

San Diego Receives:

• Mike Clevinger
• Greg Allen
• PTBNL

Cleveland Receives:

• Gabriel Arias
• Joey Cantillo
• Austin Hedges
• Owen Miller
• Josh Naylor
• Cal Quantrill

Read the rest of this entry »

For the full introduction to the Replacement-Level Killers series, follow the link above, but to give you the CliffsNotes version: yes, things are different this year, and not just because the lone trade deadline is later today, August 31. We’ve got a little over a month’s worth of performances to analyze (sometimes less, due to COVID-19 outbreaks), about four weeks still to play, and thanks to the expanded playoff field, all but seven teams — the Pirates, Angels, Red Sox, Mariners, Royals, Rangers, and Orioles — are within two games of a playoff spot.

While still focusing upon teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), I’ll incorporate our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation, considering any team with a total of 0.3 WAR or less — I lowered the threshold by a point, starting with the third base/center field installment, to keep the final lists from getting too overgrown — to be in the replacement-level realm (that’s 0.8 WAR over the course of 162 games, decidedly subpar). I don’t expect every team I identify to upgrade before the trade deadline, given other context (returns from injury, contradictory defensive metrics, and bigger holes elsewhere on the roster), and I’m not concerned with the particulars of which players they might pursue or trade away.

Note that all individual stats in this article are through August 29, but the won-loss records and Playoff Odds include games of August 30.

This time, I’m covering both left and right fielders, with a very brief nod in the general direction of designated hitters as well. Thankfully, my strategy of waiting for the left field herd to thin proved to be the right call, as that list shrank from nine to six (and right field from six to five) after some positive regression over the past few days. Read the rest of this entry »

The flurry of deals made by the San Diego Padres on Sunday culminated with a massive trade with the Seattle Mariners. The headlining player headed to Southern California is catcher Austin Nola, along with two relievers, Austin Adams and Dan Altavilla. Ben Clemens will address the newest additions to the Padres bullpen and Eric Longenhagen will have the analysis of the prospect/recently-prospect haul the Mariners received from the Padres — Taylor Trammell, Andres Muñoz, and Ty France — a little later this morning. The fourth player headed to the Northwest, Luis Torrens, is likely to take Nola’s place on the Mariners roster as their starting catcher.

With the Padres acquiring Jason Castro from the Angels earlier in the day, the addition of Nola completes an overhaul of the Padres catching corps. As a group, the Padres catchers had put up a collective .146/.228/.291 slash line, good for a 45 wRC+ and -0.3 WAR. They weren’t the worst hitting group of backstops in the majors this year, but it was a clear need for the Padres, who have their eyes on a deep postseason run.

Castro is a fine offensive upgrade in his own right but the easy answer to the Padres problem was to simply add the best hitting catcher in the majors in 2020. That’s exactly what they’ve done in adding Nola. His .380 wOBA ekes out J.T. Realmuto by just a single point, his 145 wRC+ is six points higher than the star Phillies backstop, and they’re tied with 1.2 WAR apiece. Read the rest of this entry »

An Oakland Athletics offense that was already fourth in baseball in WAR has acquired Tommy La Stella — a man who has hit .265/.361/.461 this year (.287/.350/.480 over the last two), and who has the lowest strikeout among baseball’s qualified hitters at a paltry 5.6% (7.9% combined the last two years, also the lowest in baseball) — to solidify a second base situation that has been molten since Jed Lowrie’s most recent departure. The A’s traded 24-year-old infielder Franklin Barreto to the Angels in exchange for La Stella.

As his now twice former manager Joe Maddon once said when he was a Cub, La Stella could roll out of bed and hit, a notion he has since further reinforced, as La Stella’s strikeout and barrel rates have each trended in a positive direction since he left the north side. He makes the A’s lineup a top-to-bottom threat for the rest of the year before he hits free agency this winter.

La Stella is a clear upgrade over incumbent keystone Tony Kemp, who emerged from a crowded preseason group mostly made up of disappointing prospects. Kemp is hitting just .250/.377/.281, with the OBP portion of his line driven by an unusually high walk rate and BABIP compared to the five-year big leaguer’s career norms. Kemp, who also has experience in the outfield, is likely to shift to a bench role as a situational lefty bat, and a late-inning replacement for La Stella, who is neither a good defender nor runner.

There will likely also be some instances when La Stella serves as Oakland’s designated hitter in lieu of the struggling Khris Davis (who is hitting .155/.269/.241 this season, and .213/.290/.371 over the last two combined), with either Kemp or Chad Pinder starting at second base. In essence, La Stella bolsters the second base and DH spots simultaneously as he himself is an upgrade, and his addition means Bob Melvin can choose from whichever of Pinder, Kemp or Davis he thinks is more likely to do damage that day. For instance, Pinder could play more often versus lefties, Kemp versus righties, and Davis against pitchers who throw a lot of fastballs. I think this move may put Rule 5 pick Vimael Machín‘s roster spot in jeopardy, especially in light of Marcus Semien’s recent injury, which could leave Oakland without a viable defensive shortstop on their 40-man, perhaps necessitating a deal or Nick Allen’s addition to the active roster for a brief stretch. Read the rest of this entry »

Andrew Miller made his MLB debut on today’s date 14 years ago.Two months after bing drafted sixth-overall out of the University of North Carolina by the Detroit Tigers, the lanky left-hander pitched a scoreless eighth inning in a 2-0 loss to the New York Yankees. Five hundred-plus appearances later, he remembers it like it was yesterday.

“I faced some big names in old Yankee Stadium, which is hard to beat,” recalled Miller, who retired Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon, and Derek Jeter. “It was part of a doubleheader, as we’d gotten rained out the day I was called up, and afterward, [pitching coach] Chuck Hernandez came over and put his hand on my chest. He asked if I was going to have a heart attack.”

A top-step-of-the-dugout exchange with Marcus Thames is also fresh in Miller’s memory. On cloud nine following his one-inning stint, Miller learned that his teammate had four years earlier taken Randy Johnson deep in his first big-league at bat. Ever the pragmatist, Miller acknowledges that Thames’s debut had his own “beat by a mile.” The previous day’s rain-delay poker game in the clubhouse was another story: Miller walked away a winner.

He wasn’t about to get a big head. Not only was Miller joining a championship-caliber club — the Tigers went on to lose to the Cardinals in the World Series — there was little chance he’d have been allowed to. While his veteran teammates treated him well, they also treated him for what he was — a 21-year-old rookie with all of five minor-league innings under his belt.

“It was a shocking experience all around,” Miller admitted. “In hindsight, it’s scary how little I knew, and how naive I was, when I got called up. Thank goodness Jamie Walker called my room and told me to meet him in the lobby to go over some ground rules and expectations. He saved me from a lot of mistakes. Of course, after that Jamie was maybe the hardest veteran on me. It was all good natured, but I couldn’t slip up around him.” Read the rest of this entry »

For the full introduction to the Replacement-Level Killers series, follow the link above, but to give you the CliffsNotes version: yes, things are different this year, and not just because the lone trade deadline falls on August 31. We’ve got a little over a month’s worth of performances to analyze (sometimes less, due to COVID-19 outbreaks), about a month still to play, and thanks to the expanded playoff field, all but six teams — the Pirates, Angels, Red Sox, Mariners, Royals, and Rangers — are within two games of a playoff spot.

While still focusing upon teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), I’ll incorporate our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation, considering any team with a total of 0.3 WAR or less — I lowered the threshold by a point, starting with this installment, to keep these final lists from getting too overgrown — to be in the replacement-level realm (that’s 0.8 WAR over the course of 162 games, decidedly subpar). I don’t expect every team I identify to upgrade before the August 31 trade deadline, I’m not concerned with the particulars of which players they might pursue or trade away, and I may give a few teams in each batch a lightning round-type treatment, as I see their problems as less pressing given other context, such as returns from injury, contradictory defensive metrics, and bigger holes elsewhere on the roster.

Note that all individual stats in this article are through August 26, but the won-loss records and Playoff Odds include games of August 27.

This time, I’m covering third basemen and center fields, mainly so I could give a rather daunting left field herd — nine teams at 0.4 total WAR or less, and eight at 0.3 or less, when I ran the numbers on Thursday — another couple days to thin out, either by more representative performances or teams slipping below that odds threshold. Read the rest of this entry »