One of my favorite articles to write is the “you won’t believe how this guy is succeeding” piece. You’ve seen me – and plenty of other writers – break it out over and over again. Maybe it’s a reliever with a weird pitch, or a starter with a blazing fastball who is nonetheless succeeding with secondaries. Perhaps it’s a hitter excelling thanks to a novel approach, or a slugger altering his game to prioritize something he didn’t before. In any case, it’s fun to subvert expectations, and it makes for a good story to boot.

Spare some thought for the players who succeed by doing exactly what you think they’re doing, though. They might not garner as many headlines, but that doesn’t make what they’re doing any less real. I have a specific example of this today, someone I was hoping to write about in the former style. I went looking for the one weird trick that made him tick, but I couldn’t find one. Brent Rooker is succeeding with one extremely normal trick: Every time he comes to the plate, he tries to hit a home run.

Here’s a representative Rooker swing:

Here’s another:

You’ll notice a few things right away. He swings hard – his average swing speed matches Bryce Harper and Matt Olson. He also swings with a pronounced uppercut. Most hitters hit more home runs on high pitches, thanks to the laws of physics. Rooker doesn’t have a single homer in the upper third of the strike zone this year; he’s either annihilating pitches down the middle or lifting low balls over the fence. Read the rest of this entry »

Dylan Cease was one of my interview targets when the San Diego Padres visited Fenway Park last weekend, and as part of my preparation I looked back at what I’d previously written about him here at FanGraphs. What I found were three articles partially derived from conversations I had with the right-hander when he was in the Chicago White Sox organization. One, from 2020, was on how he was trying to remove unwanted cut from his fastball. A second, from 2019, was on how he’d learned and developed his curveball. The third, from 2018, included Cease’s citing “body awareness and putting your hand and arm in the right spot” as keys to his executing pitches consistently.

And then there was something from November 2017 that didn’t include quotes from the hurler himself. Rather, it featured plaudits for his performances down on the farm. In a piece titled Broadcaster’s View: Who Were the Top Players in the Midwest League, Cease was mentioned several times. Chris Vosters, who was then calling games for the Great Lakes Loons and more recently was the voice of the NHL’s Chicago Blackhawks, described a high-90s fastball, a quality curveball, and an ability to mix his pitches well. Jesse Goldberg-Strassler (Lansing Lugnuts) and Dan Hasty (West Michigan Whitecaps) were others impressed by the then-promising prospect’s potential.

With that article in mind, I went off the beaten path and asked Cease about something that flies well under the radar of most fans: What is the relationship between players and broadcasters, particularly in the minor leagues? Read the rest of this entry »

This is a bounce-back season for Yandy Díaz, and not in a good way. After two straight seasons with a wRC+ above 145, the Rays first baseman is at 106 so far in 2024. When Jay Jaffe checked in on him on June 13, Díaz had just climbed out of a hole. Through May 10, Díaz was running a wRC+ of just 77 with a 90.9 mph average exit velocity. Since that date, he’s been at 128, and his exit velocity has jumped all the way to 93.7 mph. Even more important, he was running a 60.3% groundball rate on May 10, but has run a 53.3% groundball rate after that point. For the season, that still leaves him at 56.4%, highest among all qualified players, but for Díaz, that handful of percentage points has always been the difference between being a good hitter and being one of the best in baseball. When his groundball rate is up, his wRC+ is down, and vice versa. The relationship is plain to see:

MLB’s new bat tracking data put the issue in stark relief. Blasts are a combination of two metrics: fast swings and squared up swings. The official definitions are here, but if you swing hard and you barrel the ball up, you’ll end up with a blast. That’s a good thing, because so far this season, blasts have a wOBA of .731, and a barrel rate of 27.7%. For Díaz, however, those numbers are .423 and 16.0%. He’s tied with Gunnar Henderson for fourth in baseball with 100 blasts, but just five of those blasts have turned into home runs. Of the 260 players who have hit at least 25 blasts this season, that 5.0% home run rate puts him in 248th place. Why? You know why. He has a launch angle of 1 on his blasts, tied for 259th out of 260. On the left, with the infield dirt almost completely obscured by dots, is Díaz’s spray chart on blasts. On the right, with home runs sprinkled liberally on top, is Henderson’s. Read the rest of this entry »

Spencer Horwitz is hoping to show that what he did in the minors can be replicated in the majors, and so far, he’s off to a strong start. Displaying what my colleagues Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin called “a patient, contact-driven approach at the plate,” the lefty-hitting Blue Jays utilityman has slashed .310/.430/.479 with an equal amount of walks and strikeouts over 86 plate appearances since being called up from Triple-A in early June. By comparison, his numbers down on the farm include a .307/.413/.471 slash line and roughly the same number of strikeouts and free passes over parts of five professional seasons. The extent to which Horwitz can continue having this level of success against major league pitching remains to be seen — last season’s 15-game cup of coffee yielded lesser results — but his skillset and upside are promising.

In the latest installment of our Talks Hitting series, the 26-year-old Horwitz discussed how he’s learned and evolved as a hitter over the years, from watching Manny Machado flicking the barrel to challenging himself with high velocity off of machines.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with one of my favorite ice-breaker questions in this series: Do you view hitting as more of an art or as more of a science?

Spencer Horwitz: “Oh, good question. I would say a blend of both. I’ve been blessed in a lot of ways with some hitter-ish things that I can’t explain, but I’ve also learned a lot through the science of hitting.”

Laurila: When did that learning start?

Horwitz: “I think it started when I was in high school, not really knowing what I was looking at, but watching really good hitters and trying to emulate them. Later, I was able to put some true numbers to the data that I was collecting in my mind.” Read the rest of this entry »

We’re going to start with a little quiz. Here’s how it works. I’ll show you a short video clip. There’s something weird about the clip. Don’t make it full screen, at least on your first viewing. I just want you to see whether you can spot what exactly that weird thing is. Maybe you’ll catch it the first time you watch. Maybe it’ll take a few more views. Don’t scroll down too far or you’ll see the answer in the paragraph after the video, and that would defeat the point of our little exercise.

Ready? Here we go.

Did you see it? Did you not see it? Am I just vamping for two more paragraphs in order to give you a better chance of watching the video without spoiling the surprise?

Maaaaaybeeeee. Read the rest of this entry »

Jackson Merrill has been powering up for the Padres. Over his last 18 games, the 21-year-old rookie outfielder has homered nine times while slashing a robust .343/.371/.791 with a 228 wRC+. His seasonal numbers aren’t nearly as stellar — the second coming of Barry Bonds he’s not — but they are good enough to have him firmly in contention for NL Rookie of the Year honors at the halfway mark. San Diego’s hot-hitting youngster has a dozen dingers to go with a 125 wRC+ and a .291/.325/.459 slash line. Moreover, his 2.5 WAR is tied for tops (along with Milwaukee’s Joey Ortiz) among first-year players in the senior circuit.

For a few years now, one of Merrill’s goals — and expectations — has been to hit for more power than many people projected he would when he was drafted 27th overall in 2021. When I talked to him for Sunday Notes during the 2022 Arizona Fall League season, the Baltimore native told me that he could “definitely drive the ball,” adding that he was looking to get stronger and produce more pop going forward. When the Padres visited Fenway Park last weekend, I asked Merrill how he feels he’s progressed in that area.

“It’s not trying to force extra power, it’s just kind of getting adjusted to the pitching and letting it come naturally,” said Merrill, who proceeded to punish Red Sox pitching to the tune of 15 total bases over three games. “When I first got up here, I was still getting accustomed to everything, and getting my timing and my pitch selection right. The power comes naturally when you get your swing feeling good and are putting the barrel on the ball more.” Read the rest of this entry »

Blake Treinen has spent an entire career as one of the best sinker-heavy relievers in all of baseball. Since his debut, he’s been one of the best relievers in baseball — period. That sounds like hyperbole but it isn’t. From 2014 through 2022, he ranked ninth in FIP-based WAR and fourth in RA9-WAR among all relief pitchers. He also ranked second in groundball rate among relievers who threw 400 or more innings. That’s elite performance, and he did it with a consistent attack of sinkers and sliders.

As his career has worn on, Treinen has made one big shift: He started throwing a huge sweeping slider. He was an early poster boy for the sweeper revolution. From 2014 through 2020, his slider averaged about an inch of horizontal movement. Starting in 2021, he changed the way he threw it, and that number blew up to nearly seven inches. That turbo-charged his strikeout rate, and 2021 was one of his better seasons despite intermittent command problems.

Those two things encompass most of what people know about Treinen. He gets a ton of grounders and he throws a big old sweeper. In fact, he was at the vanguard of a pitcher type that now seems to populate every major league bullpen: the sinker/sweeper righty. You can picture this guy, even if you don’t know his name on every single squad. He lives on the east/west plane, and produces plenty of ugly swings and probably a hit batter or two when his sinker veers into the righty batter’s box seemingly out of nowhere. Read the rest of this entry »

Tim Herrin is quietly having one of this year’s best seasons among pitchers who are unlikely to be named to the American League All-Star team later this month. The 27-year-old left-hander has come out of the Cleveland Guardians bullpen 38 times and boasts a 1.07 ERA and 2.48 FIP over 33 2/3 innings. Moreover, he’s punched out 34 batters, and none of the 18 hits he’s surrendered have left the yard.

Uncle Charlie has been his primary weapon. Herrin has thrown his curveball 40.6% of the time this season, the second-highest percentage — behind only Kansas City’s Nick Anderson at 45.1% — among pitchers who have worked at least 30 innings. The usage represents a marked change from a year ago. In his 2023 rookie season, Herrin threw his curveball just 12.2% of the time while logging a 5.53 ERA and 3.87 FIP.

Herrin discussed his hook prior to a recent game at Cleveland’s Progressive Field.

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David Laurila: Is the curveball your best pitch? You’ve certainly been throwing a lot of them.

Tim Herrin: “Yeah, I mean, the usage is up a lot compared to previous years. It’s a pitch I worked on throughout the offseason, trying to be able to command it a little bit better. It used to be more of a two-strike strikeout pitch, and now I can use it to get ahead in counts as well as to put guys away. It’s been a good pitch for me.” Read the rest of this entry »

Royce Lewis is one of the most intriguing hitters in the game right now. Despite how fantastic he has been on a rate basis, it’s hard to fully evaluate his overall value as a hitter because of how little he has played. He has amassed 4.1 WAR and a 159 wRC+ across 93 career games, but as is well known, he’s been limited due to a series of injuries that includes two ACL tears, quadricep and hamstring issues, and an oblique strain.

This season, his explosive performance has added some confidence in what he can be as a hitter. Despite suffering a quad injury on Opening Day that kept him out of the lineup for two months, he’s clobbered 10 home runs in 23 games, showing that he doesn’t need a bunch of plate appearances to shake the rust off his swing before catching fire. His raw talent has never been in question, but there’s one part of his game throughout his power surge that seems to defy logic and is worth keeping an eye on moving forward: His xwOBACON sat at .473 entering play Sunday. If he were a qualified hitter, that would rank in the top decile. Given what we’ve seen from Lewis, that isn’t all too shocking – he can really put a charge into the ball. But when zooming in a bit on a particular detail of his swing, it becomes a bit surprising. Here are the leaders in xwOBACON to date in 2024:

I’ve included Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) here because, except for Juan Soto, Lewis has the lowest average VBA of all hitters on this list. After Lewis, the hitter with the next-lowest VBA is Giancarlo Stanton, who generates so much power and bat speed that it would be nearly impossible for him not to have a top-of-the-line xwOBACON, even with such an unorthodox swing. How Soto can impact the baseball with ferocity despite having one of the flattest swings in the entire game is a bit more complex. The simplest explanation is he has incredible upper body athleticism, which allows him to let the ball get extremely deep in the hitting zone and still adjust his bat path to get on plane with the pitch.

Otherwise, though, hitters hardly ever generate this level of contact quality with these types of VBAs. So it’s remarkable that Lewis is among the exceptions. For the rest of this piece, let’s ignore Stanton because he is, in the words of Yankees manager Aaron Boone, a “weirdo” and what he does with his violent, choppy swing is almost certainly impossible to replicate. Soto is also a singular hitter; the difference is that what he does — using his flatter bat path to make more consistent contact while still having the strength to do damage, and pairing that hit tool with 80-grade swing decisions — would be worth emulating if anyone were talented enough to do it. At a glance, it seems Lewis might have the skills to follow a somewhat similar recipe. So far this season, Lewis has a 98th percentile SEAGER, a metric from Robert Orr that weighs how selective hitter are and the rate at which they attack hittable pitches. It’s especially encouraging that Lewis lets only 28.2% of hittable pitches pass him by, meaning that when he gets a pitch he can crush, he’s attacks it. That’s a great foundation to have.

To better understand his swing, I’ll refer you all to the third hitting installment from Tess Taruskin’s invaluable video scouting series, specifically the part where she compares grooved and adjustable swings. Because Lewis is a hitter with such a flat swing, my initial hunch was that most of his damage comes against pitches down the middle or in top half of the zone, leaving a hole for pitchers to target at the bottom of the zone. This would indicate that Lewis would have a grooved swing, one that repeats a specific swing path over and over, leading to a limited space for barrels. Although Lewis’ sample size is still hardly significant this year, it’s worth looking at where his best swings in terms of contact quality have been located. Here are his 10 home runs this season:

Interesting. All of Lewis’ homers have come from the middle of the zone. That’s not necessarily a bad thing – the best hitters in baseball are the ones who crush mistakes the most often. And as we saw from his SEAGER, he is great at attacking pitches in hittable zones. Basically, we can’t just knock him simply because his homers come from meatballs. However, it’s relevant context to the conversation around distinguishing whether his swing is grooved or adjustable. To go a bit further than just his pitch chart on home runs, we can look at his performance by zone to see if he’s had a hole below the zone.

Lewis has actually been quite successful in the bottom of third of the zone, with a .380 wOBA and .355 xwOBA on pitches in this location. (I included both 2023 and 2024 to increase the sample size a bit.) That’s pretty impressive for a hitter with such a flat swing. Soto’s wOBA/xwOBA line in that span is .264/.260, though his sample is much larger. Lewis’ contact quality on lower-third pitches is also quite strong.

Looking at video, it becomes clear how Lewis is succeeding against lower-third pitches, and this is where he is different from Soto. Remember, it is Soto’s upper body flexibility that propels him to impact pitches that get deep in the zone against him. Lewis, on the other hand, uses his lower body to get down in the zone and do damage on pitches in the bottom third:

If you focus on where Lewis’ head starts on these swings versus where it finishes, you can see the angles he can create with his lower body to get his barrel to the lower third despite his flat swing. It’s reminiscent of Fernando Tatis Jr. The hands start high and stay high, but the lower body creates space for the barrel to still maintain a positive attack angle – the angle of the bat path at contact relative to the ground – at the bottom of the zone. It’s a difficult move to make, but when your swing is this adjustable, you can rely on it from time to time when you identify pitches correctly.

The contrast between Lewis and Soto is a great reminder of how different hitters can be, even when a key trait in their swings is similar. Lewis’ superpower lies in his lower body. Whether the pitch is inside, outside, or in the middle of the zone, he uses his legs and hips to go down and get pitches.

Now, if I were an opposing pitcher, I’d challenge Lewis to make these moves over and over again and prove he can still elevate pitches down in the zone. Like I’ve said, we’re dealing with a limited sample. However, based on what we’ve seen so far, there is reason to believe Lewis has the skills needed to continue producing elite contact with his flat swing.

The Angels are in a rough place. With Mike Trout injured, Shohei Ohtani departed, and pitchers like Patrick Sandoval and Reid Detmers injured or struggling, it’s no surprise that they’re on pace for another 90-loss season despite a recent six-game winning streak. Their main source of their woes has been their long-struggling pitching staff, which this year has the third-worst ERA and walk rate in the majors. And while the Angels have taken extreme measures to add pitching depth to their farm system, the next generation of young pitchers in Anaheim aren’t exactly aces. This is to say that any short-term improvements to the staff will have to come from improvements to hurlers already on the big league roster. This year, they’re attempting to do just that by embracing the newest pitch to come into vogue: the splinker.

The splinker is still pretty new in the timeline of pitch design; its early adopters include Jhoan Duran and Paul Skenes. This sinker-splitter hybrid is difficult to classify because so few pitchers throw it, but such offerings generally sit in the same velocity band as four-seam fastballs while killing spin and lift in a manner similar to splitters and changeups. The end result can be downright nasty: Skenes has accumulated a +10 run value with his splinker across just nine starts, only a couple runs better than the first Angel to pick up the pitch, José Soriano. Read the rest of this entry »