Right off the bat, I have to tell you that I don’t love the name I gave the statistic I created last week. RE-RA9 doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. The concept – adjusting run-scoring statistics to account for inherited runners – is easy to get your head around, and I think it’s clearly interesting. But while I had fun writing that article, I wasn’t quite happy with where I left off, either on the name front or on the analysis front.

The name thing probably can’t be fixed. I’m not a great namer of things, historically, and I don’t think that’s going to change today. But while I can’t do anything about that, I quickly expanded my coverage from 2026 to, well, as much of baseball as I could. If this statistic is interesting, it’s interesting as much for its application throughout history as for who’s good and bad at it this year. So with the help of the FanGraphs play-by-play database, which stretches back to 1974, I built RE-RA9 for the vast majority of the era where there were enough relief appearances for this statistic to even make sense. Forget Grant Anderson and Chase Silseth, the two poster boys from my first article. Let’s get some famous guys and seasons in here.

For example, here are the 10 pitchers who have done the most to prevent inherited runners from scoring (RE-RA9 lower than actual RA9), minimum 1,000 innings pitched:

Read the rest of this entry »

Max Clark is among the top position player prospects in baseball. Three years removed from being drafted third overall by the Detroit Tigers out of the Indiana’s Franklin Community High School, the left-haded-hitting 21-year-old outfielder has been described by our prospect team as having “a mature blend of tools and skills that belie his young age,” as well as a “feel to hit [that] stands out.” Clark is currently holding his own as one of the youngest players in Triple-A. Over 310 plate appearances with the Toledo Mud Hens, he has 22 extra-base hits, including six home runs, to go with a .264/.346/.394 slash line and a 100 wRC+.

In the latest installment of our Talks Hitting series, Clark discusses his approach at the plate, as well as developmental strides he has made since coming to pro ball. My conversation with the 60-FV prospect took place prior to Wednesday’s Mud Hens game in Worcester, Massachusetts.

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David Laurila: How would you describe yourself as a hitter?

Max Clark: “I’m definitely a feel-for-hit guy. I have developed more power over the last couple years, obviously from growing up, but also from understanding where to do damage on which pitches and in which counts. Overall, I’m just going to hit. I’m going to put the ball in play. I hate striking out; I absolutely despise it. So, I want to put the ball in play and let my speed tool work, steal bases, cause chaos. But when I get a pitch in the damage zone, I’ll take a rip.” Read the rest of this entry »

Through their ups and downs this season — a pair of 10-game winning streaks here, a 10-game losing streak there — the one constant for the Cubs has been injuries to their starting pitchers. On that front, this week brought a flurry of bad news. Not only did both Edward Cabrera and Ben Brown land on the injured list on Wednesday, bringing their current total of sidelined starters to six, but president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announced that Justin Steele, who suffered a setback in late April while rehabbing from his second Tommy John surgery, isn’t likely to rejoin the rotation this season. In need of warm bodies to provide some innings, the team swung a trade with the Mets to acquire lefty David Peterson, a 2025 All-Star who has been getting lit up this year, but if the Cubs aspire to maintain their hold on a playoff spot, they’ll need significantly more help ahead of the August 3 trade deadline.

At this writing, seven of the 11 pitchers who have made at least one start for the team this season — including openers — have landed on the IL at least once, and that count doesn’t even include Steele. With Wednesday’s moves, five of the six pitchers forecast to throw the most innings for the team in our preseason Positional Power Rankings were out hurt, though Thursday’s scheduled activation of Opening Day starter Matthew Boyd from his second IL stint reduces that count. The Cubs rotation ranked 20th in projected WAR in our PPR, with a projected 4.03 ERA and a 4.15 FIP, but even that level of performance has been unattainable. Currently, Chicago is 26th in starting pitcher WAR (2.9), with a combined 4.64 ERA and a 4.79 FIP, and while the team’s use of the occasional opener fuzzes up those stats a bit, the bullpen (including bulk pitchers) has netted -0.3 WAR, with a 3.82 ERA and a 4.62 FIP. Don’t even ask about ready help from the minors, as the organization’s top upper-level pitching prospects — Jaxon Wiggins, Brody McCullough, Brandon Birdsell, Connor Noland — either are currently hurt or have been ineffective. It’s a bleak situation everywhere you look, at least at the moment. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the things I try to emphasize when I talk about projections is that they’re not numbers written in stone, but an array of estimates that’s always moving. Each individual plate appearance or inning pitched, while not a needle-mover on its own, adds to our knowledge of a player and very gently changes his career trajectory. Forecasting a player isn’t all that different from forecasting a hurricane, but thankfully, players cause a lot less mayhem. Except maybe Len Koenecke.

It’s been three months since the start of the season, and we have a lot of new information about players. Since we’re approaching the halfway point of the season, and the fact that I’m getting a few dozen chat questions a week about which players have seen their projections change the most, I thought this would be an appropriate time to do an in-season ZiPS run with the full-fat model that is too compute-intensive to run every day. To keep the list relevant to 2026 MLB goings-on, I narrowed it to players who either have played in the majors this year or are one of the 1,232 prospects on The Board. So my apologies to players such as Peyton Alford, who has seen his 2027 ERA+ projection jump from 88 to 110.

I’ve also separated starters from relievers, with pitchers projected to start in at least a third of their appearances landing with the starters. Since relievers tend to be more volatile than starting pitchers, I wanted to make sure the latter were represented. After all, a bump of 10 points of ERA+ in 180 innings is more impactful for a team than 15 points of ERA+ in 60 relief innings! Read the rest of this entry »

With the 2026 college baseball season having just concluded (a hearty congratulations to both the University of Oklahoma and the College World Series’ Most Outstanding Player, Jaxon Willits), the MLB Draft Combine still in progress, and the Draft itself rapidly approaching, now seems like as good time as any to remind everyone that we added Division I college baseball statistics to the site last year. In addition to college leaderboards, Division I players have their own player pages, while the college stats of drafted pro players can be found on their pro player pages (undrafted free agents currently have separate college and pro player pages, though we’re working to merge them).

The leaderboards can be accessed within the Leaders tab on the main FanGraphs navigation bar:

Before I dive in, here are the basics:

• Stats go back to 2021 and, as they are for professional leagues on the site, they’re updated daily during the season.
• wRC+ is conference-adjusted, not park-adjusted as it is for the minors and majors.
• Unlike most other FanGraphs leaderboards, there are no Dashboard or customization options for Members; what you see under the Standard and Advanced options is the full suite of college stats available.

Using the various drop-downs at the top of the page, you can build your own leaderboard. For example, you might be interested in the best seasons for Miami University (go RedHawks!) hitters since 2021, by wRC+:

Or the best SEC seasons by strikeout rate:

I used “Qualified” as my plate appearance/innings pitched minimum for both of these leaderboards. The qualified playing time rules are same as they are for affiliated ball: 2.1 plate appearances or one inning pitched per team game.

Our college player pages look much the same as the pro player pages, just with fewer statistics. There are even the customizable player cards you’ll find on all player pages, though of course the RosterResource information and Spark Graphs will have to wait:

College stats on the player pages is hidden by default for players who have more than one year of minor league data. College stats can be toggled back on using the College button at the top of each data table:

Turning college stats on for any table within a player’s page will turn it on for all tables, so long as you remain on that player’s page. Turning college stats on doesn’t make the other stats go away, of course, so you can view a player’s entire journey from college up through the minor leagues and into the majors. Here are Nick Kurtz’s ridiculous hitting lines since college:

One last thing to highlight: If the team abbreviations you see prove inscrutable, don’t worry – we have a fix for that! You don’t have to Google where the country’s second-leading hitter by batting average attended school. You can simply hover over the abbreviation in question to view the school’s full name:

As is always the case at FanGraphs, exporting college data to Excel is limited to Members.

To repurpose an old quote about the weather, if you don’t like the identity of the best catcher in baseball, just wait a year and you’ll have a new best catcher in baseball. It’s almost uncanny. Every year, there are two contenders for best catcher in baseball. And every year, one of them falls to the wayside, to be replaced by someone new. It’s like clockwork:

Last year was an exception to the rule in that Cal Raleigh was a lot better than Alejandro Kirk, but for the most part, the top two catchers in the game have put up similar WAR. It’s hard to stand out all the way at catcher, and it’s also hard to stay near the top for long. Truthfully, that isn’t all that surprising. Catching is phenomenally difficult on the body, and WAR is a counting stat. The best catchers play a lot, and they wear down. Before long, they’re either playing less often or playing less effectively.

With that backdrop, you might expect one of Kirk or Raleigh to be clinging to the top spot while a new contender appears. But that hasn’t happened. They’ve both been hurt – Raleigh missed a month on the IL, and Kirk missed more than two. And they’ve both played poorly when healthy – both are off to the worst offensive starts of their careers, though Kirk’s is in a tiny sample. There’s still more than half a season to play, and it’s reasonable to think that the two of them might end up posting solid numbers the rest of the way, but they’ve racked up a combined 0.5 WAR so far this year. It’s safe to say that there will be some new faces at the top. Read the rest of this entry »

I ended up here by accident. I was writing about Steven Kwan yesterday, and I found myself on a leaderboard that contained all 3,658 qualified seasons for batters since 2002. That’s the first year Sports Info Solutions started tracking its reams and reams of granular data, so I spend a lot of time with the leaderboards set to that particular date range. If somebody is at the top or bottom of a column on that leaderboard, then they have earned a superlative. For example, in 2003, SIS credited Tony Batista with a 63.4% pull rate — the highest pull rate ever recorded! I have to believe it’s the highest of all time, too. How is it even possible to pull the ball 63% of the time? It certainly sounds impossible, but I believe the number to be true both because the second and eighth spots also belong to Batista, and because, well, do you remember Tony Batista’s batting stance?

Yeah, that’s what you’d expect a guy with a 63% pull rate to look like. Batista’s offensive approach made him look like a guy who had time traveled from an age long before right field was even discovered.

Today, we’re talking about a different former Oriole who, at least as of right now, can lay claim to one of the most extreme seasons of all time. Here’s the top of the fly ball rate leaderboard. Once again, we’re looking only at qualified seasons. Read the rest of this entry »

Kyle Tucker’s tenure with the Dodgers hasn’t gone as well as anyone hoped so far, and on Monday night at Target Field, things took a turn for the worse. After walking during his first plate appearance, he yielded to a pinch-runner upon reaching second base due to back spasms. While he hasn’t yet landed on the injured list, the Dodgers have set a timetable that allows for “a mental reset” — to use manager Dave Roberts’ term — as Tucker tries to end a prolonged slump.

Tucker apparently began experiencing back spasms when the Dodgers took the field in the bottom of the first inning, though he didn’t have any balls hit in his direction. When he batted with one out in the top of the second, he fouled off Zebby Matthews’ first pitch — a four-seamer just off the plate — then looked at four straight balls, three of them in similar locations to that initial offering. Tommy Edman followed with a single, at which point Roberts replaced Tucker with pinch-runner Alex Call, who took over in right field.

“Back just like lit up and [I] went out there just tried to hope that it would calm down or go away or something, I’d just keep flying through it,” said Tucker afterwards, adding that “finishing the swing hurt.”

Roberts first noticed Tucker’s discomfort when he was batting. “I saw him take his at-bat — a little bit of wincing and kind of when he was jogging to first base,” the manager said. “And then once he got to second base, I think it was just more not seeing him move the right way, and I didn’t want to put him in any more jeopardy.” Read the rest of this entry »

One of the things I try to emphasize when I talk about projections is that they’re not numbers written in stone, but an array of estimates that’s always moving. Each individual plate appearance or inning pitched, while not a needle-mover on its own, adds to our knowledge of a player and very gently changes his career trajectory. Forecasting a player isn’t all that different from forecasting a hurricane, but thankfully, players cause a lot less mayhem. Except maybe Len Koenecke.

It’s been three months since the start of the season, and we have a lot of new information about players. Since we’re approaching the halfway point of the season, and the fact that I’m getting a few dozen chat questions a week about which players have seen their projections change the most, I thought this would be an appropriate time to do an in-season ZiPS run with the full-fat model that is too compute-intensive to run every day. To keep the list relevant to 2026 MLB goings-on, I narrowed it to players who either have played in the majors this year or are one of the 1,232 prospects on The Board. So my apologies to players such as Tre Richardson III, whose projected 2027 OPS+ has improved from 54 to 74. I’ve ranked the players by the largest changes in projected 2027 OPS+ compared to what it was in the preseason. Read the rest of this entry »

Glen Perkins had a successful four-season stint at the back end of the Minnesota Twins bullpen. From 2012-2015, the St. Paul-born southpaw was credited with 12 wins and 118 saves while posting a 2.93 ERA over 254 appearances comprising 251 2/3 innings. Moreover, he was an All-Star in three of those campaigns. A mixed-results starter earlier in his career, Perkins ultimately finished with a 35-25 won-lost record, 120 saves, and a 3.88 ERA over 624 1/3 frames while pitching exclusively with the Twins from 2006-2017.

He now serves as one of the team’s broadcast analysts, providing insight befitting a reputation he had during his playing days. Perkins was rightly regarded as one of the game’s most analytically inclined pitchers.

How well does the left-hander remember his matchups against big league hitters? Let’s just say that Perkins’ power of recollection is every bit as impressive. He proved as much when he sat down recently for the eighth installment of our Challenging Career Quiz, a series that had thus far comprised Geoff Blum, David Cone, Mark Grant, Mark Gubicza, Jeff Montgomery, Dan Petry, and Steve Sparks. (Links to those pieces can be found on their player pages.)

I began by asking Perkins to whom he surrendered the most hits. His first two guesses, Miguel Cabrera (seven hits) and Carlos Santana (eight) were both wrong. He then correctly named Paul Konerko, who had 11. What does the southpaw remember about the erstwhile Chicago White Sox slugger?

“I had two different careers,” Perkins replied. “I was a starter and gave up a bunch of hits, then I was reliever and didn’t give up nearly as many. Pauly probably got me a bunch when I was a starter, although I do think I did well against him when he was still closer to his prime. I remember that the last year he played [2014] he mostly just hit singles. He had a little short swing and just punched the ball. He didn’t do any damage, but he did have some hits against me.”

Perkins was spot-on with his recollections. Konerko had five singles in six trips to the plate against him that year. He had previously gone 6-for-24 with a pair of doubles and a home run.

A batter who did do damage against Perkins was Santana. The still-active, 40-year-old switch-hitter went 8-for-13 with two doubles and four home runs. Perkins promptly named him when asked who took him deep most often. Read the rest of this entry »