Who is baseball’s most irreplaceable player in 2022? This doesn’t mean the most valuable player, and in terms of the playoff hunt, the hardest player to replace isn’t necessarily the best one. Some teams are either cruising to the playoffs or effectively eliminated in practice, if not in purely mathematical terms (hello, Tigers and Royals). To answer this question, I ran the updated ZiPS projected standings after Tuesday’s games and then re-ran the entire simulation with the assumption that each relevant player missed the rest of the season due to injury.

For the AL, ZiPS estimates that 10 teams remain plausible playoff contenders, which I define as having a 5% chance of making MLB’s new 12-team playoff format. The exceptions are the Tigers, Royals, A’s, and Orioles. After this quartet, there’s a significant jump to the Rangers at 9% and the Angels at 10%. Sorry, there are no Yankees and Astros on this list with their respective big leads in their divisions. Let’s jump right into the AL’s top 10 list.

1. José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians, -15.8%

ZiPS projects the Guardians as only the third-best team in the weak AL Central despite currently being part of a first-place tie, which gives them about a coin flip’s chance to make the expanded playoffs. While both Andrés Giménez and Shane Bieber project to finish the season in All-Star territory at over four WAR, Ramírez remains the player who most drives Cleveland and the only one who could figure in the MVP race. Ernie Clement is the most likely player to step in if Ramírez was lost for the year — he’s already filling in for him — and that’s a massive downgrade for a team that generally needs things to go right in order to make the playoffs.

2. Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox, -11.8%

The fact that Devers ranks so highly should get the Red Sox thinking when the subject of a possible extension for their star third baseman comes up. Boston has surged back into the playoff picture in recent weeks, but its playoff hopes still rest on the edge of a knife, and the in-house replacements for Devers are a weak group. Bobby Dalbec and the returning Christian Arroyo would likely take over at third unless the team decided to move Enrique Hernández to the position. Suffice it to say that Boston’s not giving Devers a lot of time off to play some designated hitter. Read the rest of this entry »

What is your favorite baseball memory? I posed that question to 10 major league players, and in nearly every instance, the response began with a question of their own: “Does it have to be from my own career?” While all were happy to share one (or more) meaningful memory from their time in the big leagues, it was primarily magic moments from their days as fans and/or young amateurs that stood out the most.

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Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox

“I have two. Being able to have all of my family members at the All-Star game with me in San Diego in 2016 is one. The other is having my family with me in London, England for the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry series [in 2019]. They were all with me for the [2018] World Series as well, so there are actually three: All-Star Game, World Series, and being able to travel all the way to London, halfway around the world, to watch me play. In no particular order, those would be my favorite baseball memories.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Yankees lost a rollercoaster game to the Blue Jays in Toronto on Sunday, bringing their nine-game winning streak to an end. The streak — the team’s second-longest of the season — helped the Yankees open up a double-digit lead in the American League East; even with the loss, New York is 49-17, 11 games ahead of Toronto (38-28). Two and a half months into the season, the Yankees’ performance has called to mind those of other recent powerhouses, including their hallowed 1998 squad. Given that they’ve matched the 1998 team’s record through 66 games, it’s worth taking a closer look.

The Yankees not only have the majors’ highest winning percentage (.742) and largest run differential (143), they’re miles ahead of the competition. Their winning percentage is 95 points higher than that of the second-ranked Mets (.647), who are playing at a 105-win clip, while their run differential is 29 runs better than the second-ranked Dodgers (114). Through 66 games, they’re tied for the fourth-highest win total of the live-ball era (since 1920):

This shouldn’t be a surprise, given that just two weeks ago I noted that the Yankees’ start was the best since those 2001 Mariners. Of the other 13 teams with at least 47 wins through 66 games, 12 made the postseason and 10 the World Series, with seven winning the Fall Classic. But as you can see, most of those teams precede the expansion era, with its 162-game seasons (which began in 1961-62) and postseason playoffs (which began in 1969). For a more modern perspective, here’s a look at the best 66-game starts from the Wild Card Era (which began in 1995):

All 10 teams besides these Yankees made the playoffs, but only two won the World Series, which is either an argument that many of these teams peaked too early or an indictment (or at least an acknowledgment) of the tournament-like nature of the period’s postseason, where five games mean more than 162. It is nonetheless worth noting that those 10 other teams finished the year with a collective .650 winning percentage, the equivalent of a 105-win season. These were some kick-ass squads.

The current Yankees may not have the top spot on either of those lists, but they’ve matched the 1998 Yankees to this point. Their .742 winning percentage puts them on pace to win 120 games, which would surpass the 2001 Mariners and 1906 Cubs for the single-season record. Some other hypotheticals:

• If the Yankees go 48-48 (.500) the rest of the way, they would finish 97-65 (.599).
• If they go 55-41 (.573) the rest of the way, they would finish 104-58 (.642), their best record since 1998. This is one win ahead of the record that we have them forecast for via our Projected Standings.
• If they go 60-36 (.625) the rest of the way, they would finish 109-53 (.673), surpassing the 2018 Red Sox (108-54) for the best record for any team since the 2001 Mariners.
• If they go 66-30 (.688) the rest of the way, they would finish 115-47 (.710), surpassing the 1998 Yankees for the highest win total in franchise history, while if they go 67-29 (.698), they would finish 116-46 (.716), surpassing the 1927 Yankees (110-44, .714) for the highest winning percentage in franchise history.
• If they go 68-28 (.708) the rest of the way, they would finish 117-45 (.722), surpassing both the 2001 Mariners in wins and the AL record-holding 1954 Indians in winning percentage (.721, via a 111-43 record).
• If they go 75-21 (.781) the rest of the way, they would finish with a .765 winning percentage (124-38), topping the 1906 Cubs’ .763 (116-36) for the all-time record.

I don’t advise holding your breath in anticipation of any of this beyond perhaps the first couple of bullet points. That said, I will note that only the last of those scenarios listed above would require the Yankees to improve upon what they’ve already done.

Prior to losing on Sunday, the Yankees had won 16 of 17 games and 42 of their past 52, with that longer streak bookended by their winning streaks of 11 games (April 22–May 3) and nine (June 9–18). Their 40-10 record over a 50-game stretch has been surpassed by only a small handful of teams in the Wild Card era, namely the 1998 Yankees (41-9), 2002 A’s (41-9), ’13 Dodgers (42-8), ’17 Cleveland (42-8), and ’17 Dodgers (43-7). The 1997 Yankees, 2001 Mariners, ’02 Giants, and ’01 and ’05 A’s all topped out at 40-10 over their best 50-game stretches. Note that most of these teams had several overlapping stretches with the same record.

Lest anyone think that the current Yankees have been playing only the majors’ dregs during those runs, their two long winning streaks have included three-game sweeps of the Guardians and Rays, and series wins over the Blue Jays (twice) and Twins — all teams in playoff positions now. They’re 18-7 against those teams; they have yet to play the Astros, the other AL team occupying a playoff slot. Overall, they’re 20-8 against teams with a .500 or better record, and 24-11 within the AL East, a division that has three other teams with a .537 winning percentage or better, two of which would qualify for the playoffs.

The Yankees can win all types of ways. They’re 14-3 in blowout games, those decided by five or more runs; their .824 winning percentage in that context is the majors’ best, though both the Dodgers (16-4) and Twins (16-14) have more wins (and losses) in such games. Meanwhile, they’re 14-5 in one-run games, where their .736 winning percentage is again tops, though the Blue Jays (17-8) have more wins (and losses) in such games.

In terms of run differential, the Yankees have outscored opponents by 143 runs, 2.17 per game, the fourth-largest margin of the live-ball era, and they have the second-best Pythagorean record of that period:

Since I’m comparing a team that has played 66 games against ones that played 154 or 162, I left the 2020 Dodgers in the mix, as they serve to remind that extremes can be reached in smaller samples. That said, the second-highest Pythagorean winning percentage from that pandemic-shortened season belonged to the Padres, whose .633 is just 64th among all teams since 1920, so it’s not like the leaderboard was overrun due to my choice or that those Dodgers’ dominance was illusory.

(Note that Baseball Reference, from which all of this data was culled, uses the 1.83 exponent in its Pythagorean formula [(RS^1.83 + RA^1.83)/(RS^1.83)], whereas our site uses the PythagenPat formula, in which the exponent is derived from the league’s per-game scoring environment via the formula X = ((RS + RA)/G)^.285. By the latter formula, the Yankees’ Pythagenpat winning percentage is .730, though when I started writing this the difference was a few points larger. No matter; by either formula, they’re only about one win shy their actual record, which is to say that whatever they’re doing isn’t particularly fluky.)

Inevitably, since they’ve matched the 1998 Yankees’ record to this point, the comparisons have already begun, particularly in a YES Network broadcast booth that often features David Cone and/or Paul O’Neill. Yes, it’s hard to set aside what we now know about the way that the careers of the “Core Four” — Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera plus Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada — as well as the memorable supporting cast (including Hall of Fame manager Joe Torre), turned out. While all but Posada had played critical roles in the team’s championship two years earlier, the Core Four and the rest of their roster had not yet solidified their places in history circa 1998. Those Yankees were merely on their way to becoming the dynasty that would win four titles in five years, with some even bigger campaigns and legend-defining October performances awaiting them individually.

Keep in mind that in 1998, AL teams averaged 5.01 runs per game, whereas this year, they’re averaging 4.17 per game, so any comparison of raw statistics is misleading; one needs to adjust for the scoring context. With that, the numbers tell us that so far, the current Yankees have been better on both sides of the ball relative to the league — particularly on the run prevention side.

On the offensive side, the 1998 squad was certainly more balanced, with left field (where Chad Curtis shared the job with Tim Raines, with Ricky Ledee, Darryl Strawberry, and Shane Spencer also making notable contributions) the only one without a regular with a wRC+ of 100 or better. Bernie Williams (158 wC+) led the way on the offensive side but played in just 128 games due to a knee injury. Behind him were a quartet of full-timers in the 122-129 wRC+ range in O’Neill, Jeter, Scott Brosius, and Tino Martinez, as well as a roster with incredible depth, with Torre able to call upon the likes of Strawberry, Raines, and later in the year Spencer and Chili Davis. Jeter topped the team with 6.2 WAR, with O’Neill (5.4), Brosius (5.0) and Williams (4.9) not far behind.

That team didn’t have anybody performing in the stratosphere of Aaron Judge, who’s hitting for a 189 wRC+ and is currently on pace for 61 homers and 9.3 WAR. Three other full-timers have a wRC+ of 135 or higher in Anthony Rizzo (142), Giancarlo Stanton (140) and Gleyber Torres (137), and catcher Jose Trevino (132) has been nearly as good in part-time duty. Yet this lineup has gotten underwhelming offensive contributions from left field (Joey Gallo‘s 96 wRC+) and shortstop (Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s 86 wRC+), and center fielder Aaron Hicks (90 wRC+) struggled so much early that Judge has started there 30 times.

As for the pitching, I wrote about the current Yankees’ rotation recently. The unit has been the key to the Yankees’ success thus far, consistently turning in good-to-great starts. All five starters — Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, Jordan Montgomery, Jameson Taillon, and Luis Severino — currently have an ERA- ranging from 51 (Cortes) to 87 (Severino), and a FIP- ranging from 70 to 92 (same guys), which is to say that they’ve been substantially better than league average. The 1998 Yankees’ big three (Cone, David Wells, and Orlando Hernandez) were every bit as good, but Pettitte (95 ERA-, 95 FIP-) was not at his best that year, and Hideki Irabu (88 ERA-, 115 FIP-) and fill-in Ramiro Mendoza (85 ERA-, 97 FIP- in 14 starts) were solid but more erratic. The older group averaged almost a full inning more per turn (6.55 vs. 5.56), but on a per-inning basis, the younger group has been stingier — and more valuable, at least as measured by our version of WAR.

That’s true of the bullpen as well, where it’s important to note that for as good as Rivera had already become, the 1998 season was not his best; his 77 FIP-, as strong as it was, would stand as the worst of his career besides his rookie season, 15 points higher than his eventual career mark. Lefty setup man Mike Stanton (120 ERA-, 103 FIP-), whose 79.1 innings was second among the relievers, was uncharacteristically subpar, and righty Jeff Nelson (84 ERA-, 87 FIP-) was only healthy enough to throw 40.1 innings; he missed over two months due to lower back woes.

While this year’s unit has lacked a dominant Aroldis Chapman, Clay Holmes (7 ERA-, 38 FIP-, and no, those aren’t misprints) has been ungodly thanks to his incredible sinker; in fact, his streak of consecutive scoreless outings (29) and innings (31.1) recently surpassed Rivera’s franchise records, set in 1999. Michael King (63 ERA-, 45 FIP-) has been dominant in a multi-inning role thanks to his four-pitch mix. The real question is whether the unit can continue to withstand the losses of Chad Green to Tommy John surgery and Jonathan Loaisiga to a shoulder strain, and whether Chapman is past his Achilles woes. It may take more than what’s on hand to keep this unit afloat.

It’s a long summer, and the season still has nearly 100 games to go. Regression lurks around every corner for a team playing at such a blistering clip as these Yankees; a losing streak or a couple of sluggish weeks at any point could put an end to the type of history-minded comparisons I’m making. On the other hand, continued play at this pace could invite more detailed comparisons than the thumbnail sketch I’ve provided. These Yankees’ pace and performances to date tell us that they have a chance to join the pantheon of great ball clubs. Solidifying their spot will be another matter.

Among catchers this season, Willson Contreras has been the talk of the baseball town. It’s easy to understand why: Here’s a fan favorite suddenly having a career-best season in a walk year. That grabs everyone’s attention. Suddenly, fans of others teams find themselves hoping that their favorite club will land him at the deadline or possibly this offseason. On the sabermetric side, there’s mounting evidence that Contreras has indeed taken a step forward. A catcher with this much offensive upside is a rarity, and with a robust 161 wRC+, the veteran has turned himself into prized jewel.

But enough about the Cubs or Contreras. Do you know who’s second in catcher wRC+ this season? That’s right, it’s Alejandro Kirk, who’s been the Blue Jays’ primary backstop ever since Danny Jansen headed to the IL with a fractured finger. His 146 wRC+ isn’t too far behind Contreras’, and the corresponding triple slash is a beauty: a .311/.392/.469 line is somewhat of a rarity in today’s game.

Kirk’s output might not be so surprising if you paid attention to his minor league numbers. Starting with Rookie ball in 2017, he raked at every level to which he was assigned, notching more walks than strikeouts, which led to a well-deserved big-league promotion in 2020. The Blue Jays gave him a proper chance the following year, and while he was serviceable, a 106 wRC+ in 189 plate appearances didn’t exactly leave a strong impression. This year, however, Kirk looks like the unstoppable force his minor league track record suggested he could be. Read the rest of this entry »

The St. Louis Cardinals played Friday night’s game in Boston with one catcher. Iván Herrera had been called up from Triple-A to replace the newly-sidelined Yadier Molina, but cancelled flights delayed his arrival. The highly-regarded prospect didn’t get to Fenway Park until the final inning of a 6-5 Red Sox win.

Asked who would have been used in an emergency had Andrew Knizner been injured, St. Louis manager Oliver Marmol named three possibilities: Edmundo Sosa, Brendan Donovan, and Nick Wittgren. That Marmol added, “Not necessarily in that order,” is intriguing, if not suggestive. Sosa and Donovan are infielders. Wittgren toes the rubber.

Might we have seen Wittgren, a 31-year-old pitcher with no professional experience at any another position, donning the tools of ignorance? It’s a definite possibility. Prior to the game, Marmol approached Wittgren and asked, “How do you think you’d do catching?” Wittgren replied that he’d be perfectly fine. Marmol responded with “I think so too.”

According to The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold, Wittgren isn’t the first Cardinals pitcher to be designated (or at least hinted) as an emergency catcher. Jason Motte, who worked out of the St. Louis bullpen from 2008-2014 previously claimed that distinction. Even so, Motte had caught in the minor leagues. Wittgren would have been a novice.

He has little doubt that he could have done it. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the defending World Series Champion Atlanta Braves. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Kevin Youkilis could swing the bat. In 10 big league seasons, the player immortalized in book and movie form as “The Greek God of Walks” logged a .281/.382/.478 slash line and a 127 wRC+. At his peak, he was one of the best hitters in the American League. From 2008-10, Youkilis averaged 25 home runs annually while putting up a .308 batting average and a 150 wRC+. Over that three-year stretch with the Boston Red Sox, he walked 197 times and stroked 429 base hits.

In the latest installment of our Talks Hitting series, Youkilis — now a part-time analyst on Red Sox TV broadcasts — discussed the art and science of what he did best: squaring up baseballs.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with the nickname you got early in your career. Looking back, what do you think of it?

Kevin Youkilis: “It was interesting more than anything. It’s not something I equated to. I saw myself as a hitter, and the walks just a byproduct of not getting good pitches. Part of the game is that you walk if you don’t get pitches to hit.

“At the beginning, it was a lot of… it was kind of crazy. There were all these media-driven things coming my way. That was the hardest part. I was like, ‘Wait, what?’ It was all fixated on walking, versus the other things I did well.” Read the rest of this entry »

Two major bits of unpleasant injury-related news hit the headlines on Tuesday afternoon. First, the Blue Jays announced that Hyun Jin Ryu, a key cog in the rotation, would undergo elbow surgery that would result in him missing the rest of the entire 2022 season. Over in the NL West, a scheduled CT scan revealed that Fernando Tatis Jr. had not seen enough healing in his wrist to allow him to start swinging a bat. Both of these injuries are of the type that could impact the divisional races.

For both Ryu and the Jays, his sore elbow is a major hit. Jay Jaffe has already touched on the impact to Toronto’s rotation from the loss of Ryu. In his case, there were clear signs of something being not quite right leading up to his initial trip to the shelf. Per Jay:

This is already Ryu’s second trip to the injured list this season. After lasting just 7.1 innings over his first two starts and allowing a total of 11 runs, he landed on the IL on April 17 with what was described as forearm inflammation. Upon returning to the Blue Jays on May 14, he fared somewhat better, yielding just six runs (five earned) in 19.2 innings over four starts, but his average four-seam fastball velocity decreased by about one mile per hour from outing to outing, from a high of 90.3 mph on May 14 to a low of 87.6 on June 1 — a troubling trend.

Back then, the timetable was reported to be at least multiple weeks. Full Tommy John surgery would obviously end Ryu’s 2022 campaign, but we’re far enough into the season that even repair of a partially torn UCL wouldn’t allow him to return in the fall. If he should require the full surgery, his 2023 season would definitely be in peril, with only a late-season return being feasible. He’s a free agent after the 2023 season, too, so there’s a very real possibility that he’s played his last game in a Jays uniform.

I wouldn’t characterize it as good news, but Ryu’s previous Tommy John surgery was a long time ago, undergone in 2004 when he was still in high school, meaning he got most of a professional career out of his first surgery before a possible revision procedure. Unfortunately, in one study, less than half of pitchers needing a second procedure returned to pitch at least 10 games. Read the rest of this entry »

Dakota Hudson shouldn’t be this good. It’s hard to analyze baseball, and pitchers are good for all sorts of difficult-to-comprehend reasons, but look at his numbers. It shouldn’t work. His career strikeout rate is a lackluster 17.2%. He walks more than 10% of the batters he faces. Either of those numbers would be alarming; both together is a recipe for trouble.

Naturally, Hudson is off to another roaring start. His 3.29 ERA is actually worse than his career mark, and it’s still 17% better than league average in this low-scoring year. He’s outperforming every available peripheral by miles – just like he always has. Three-hundred-and-fifteen innings into his major league career, his stat line will make you question what you know about ERA estimators. His FIP is a so-so 4.56. It’s not some home run rate fluke, either; his xFIP is exactly the same. SIERA clocks him at 4.96. xERA, the Statcast version of an ERA estimator, is right in line with everything else at 4.55. And yeah… his career ERA is 3.17. So let’s investigate what the heck is going on. Read the rest of this entry »

Until he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee last July 10, Ronald Acuña Jr. was building a case to win the National League’s Most Valuable Player Award. His season-ending injury forced an already scuffling Braves team to scramble for replacements, but thanks in large part to an outfield reconfigured by a flurry of July trades, the team overcame the devastating blow and won its first World Series in 26 years. With Acuña still recovering from his injury, the Braves got off to a sluggish start this year, but since the calendar flipped to June, they’ve reeled off a 12-game winning streak, the longest in the majors so far. The run has more than cut the division deficit in half and pushed them into a playoff position, and while their 24-year-old superstar right fielder has led the way, he’s hardly doing it alone.

The 2022 season did not begin well for the defending champions, who posted losing records in both April (10–12) and May (13–15). Those struggles enabled the Mets to build a 10.5-game NL East lead through the end of May, the third-largest in the history of division play (since 1969). Through those first two months, the Braves were outscored by 16 runs, scoring 4.14 per game and allowing 4.46. Their offense hit just .235/.304/.405, but under the adverse conditions that hitters faced early in the year, that was still good for a 97 wRC+. Their hitters did strike out a major league-high 26.2% of the time, but a .292 BABIP (five points above the average for the first two months) and 62 homers (fifth in the majors) helped to offset their contact woes.

The offense was particularly dragged down by the production of their outfielders, who collectively hit just .194/.255/.330 with a 30.6% strikeout rate and a 63 wRC+ over those first two months; from among those numbers, only their slugging percentage wasn’t the majors’ worst (it was 27th). I’ve covered the ongoing saga of Atlanta’s outfield multiple times; the play of July acquisitions Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, and Jorge Soler was the key to last year’s turnaround and postseason run once Acuña went down. Duvall and Rosario, the pair that the Braves retained, were among the early-2022 laggards; the latter, who underwent laser surgery on his right eye to correct blurred vision, has been out of the picture since April 24.

Acuña, who did not make his season debut until April 28, the Braves’ 20th game of the season, started in right field just 11 times in April and May, serving as the team’s designated hitter another 10 times. Initially and quite understandably, he showed a bit of rust with the bat, striking out 11 times in his first 28 plate appearances, but he began turning things around with a 5-for-11 showing against the Brewers that included two homers (off Eric Lauer and Corbin Burnes) and a double as the Braves took two out of three at home on May 6–8. He’s more or less stayed hot ever since, and over the past few weeks has played almost exclusively in right field, only spotting at DH.

During the winning streak, Acuña has hit .349/.431/.674 (200 wRC+) with four homers, with three in a two-game span on June 5 (off the Rockies’ Robert Stephenson) and June 7 (two off Cole Irvin, including one that led off the home half of the first inning). On Saturday against the Pirates in Atlanta, he hit another leadoff homer, this one off Zach Thompson, and later raced home from first base on a bloop single into right field by Dansby Swanson, scoring standing up:

The leadoff homer was the 25th of Acuña’s major league career, which began in 2018; since that season only George Springer has more (32), with Pederson and Mookie Betts (both with 21) the only other players with at least 20. Read the rest of this entry »